May 21, 2012

Sidney’s Candy will try to pull another heist in the 2011 Forego Stakes

The Grade 1 Forego Stakes is for three year olds and upward going 7 furlongs at Saratoga for a purse of $250,000. The race is named for the great 1970s star Forego who won 34 times from 59 starts for earnings of 1,938,957. The brilliant gelding won the Woodward Stakes four times in a row from 1974-77 and was Horse of the Year from 1974-76.

Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride x Fair Exchange by Storm Cat) figures to be the favorite. The Todd Pletcher trainee  won the Four Star Dave Handicap last out in his first race with the Kentucky Derby winning trainer. He is so versatile on dirt and turf and from several different distances that the connection have opted to turn him back to try for a Grade 1 win sprinting on the dirt.

The colt is perfect over the distance with his only try coming in the San Vicente Stakes. The dirt surface could be a question, but he figures to handle it just fine after a crushing win in the Sir Beaufort  last year which was taken off the turf, but contested on a fast track.

I’m not wild about his chances. All of his wins have come while setting a slow pace. Essentially everything has gone his way. Not only that, but I also believe the competition he beat last out and in California was very soft. The WinStar connections will know what they have after this race, but I’m going to call for an upset.

My pick for the Forego Stakes is the other Pletcher entry, Aikenite (Yes Its True x Silverlado by Saint Ballado). I never used to like this horse, but he has proven himself with wins in the Commonwealth and Churchill Downs. He was a bit dull last out in the James Marvin, but did experience a somewhat poor trip. Velazquez chose to ride Sidney’s Candy over this one, but with JJ Castellano getting up there isn’t much to worry about in that area. The price should be square on a runner that will move from off the pace.

Others I considered are Hamazing Destiny, Jerseytown and Rule By Night. In the end I felt like Aikenite had less questions about his form than they do. I got away from Jackson Bend because in the past he has had a hard time putting together  back to back strong efforts. If he reproduces his last race he could be tough to handle.

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Free Saratoga Picks 9/5/09

The Woodward Stakes is finally here! Rachel Alexandra will make history with a win at Saratoga over older males today. There is also a nice field for the Forego Stakes. Below are some select plays I like. Good luck, and enjoy watching Rachel Alexandra do what she does best; run really fast!

Race 1) #2 Kaper Lake 3-1
Trifecta: 2,9/2,6,7,9/2,6,7,9
Should get a perfect pace setup under jockey Ramon Dominguez.

Race 3) #7 Gold D’oro 5/2
Trifecta: 1,7/ALL/1,7
I love the Bill Mott/Kent Desormeaux combination. Desormeaux does particularly well on the turf, and this girl has been knocking on the door.

Race 4) #4 Our Golden Dream 7/2
Looks tough based on her race two back.

Race 5) #5 King Kitten 3-1
Kitten’s Joy progeny have been doing extremely well over the turf.

Race 9) #1 Pyro 4-1
Pick 4: 1,2,11/3/1,6,9,10/1,4,9

Dime Superfecta: 1,2,11/1,2,3,6,11/1,2,3,6,10,11
Ran well in his first race of the year after breaking poorly. He will like the distance.

Race 10) #3 Rachel Alexandra 1-2
Superfecta: 3/1,6,7/1,6,7/1,2,6,7
Obviously not the greatest bet at 1-2, but this girl can run. Make a point to watch this race because history will be made if she wins.

All Star field gathers for Grade 1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga Race Course

It’s hard to believe a year has passed since last years Forego Stakes. Last years running seems like yesterday and is still fresh in my mind. My top selection, First Defence, won the race easily. He paid somewhere around $17 to win, but I can’t remember the exact price. He never really did much after that, and I haven’t heard much about him this year. This years field is much stronger. Let’s take a look.

Everyone remembers Pyro, right? The former Kentucky Derby contender won the Louisiana Derby and looked like he would keep powering home to the winners circle until things started to fall apart in the Bluegrass Stakes. He has won just one time since losing in that prep. He looked really sharp in his first race of the year after breaking poorly. I’ve always believed Pyro was a late running sprinter. Changing jockeys from Shaun Bridgmahon to John Velazquez will help him. I like the son of Pulpit’s chances to win this race.

Kodiak Kowboy is the favorite at odds of 5/2. He finished third behind Fabulous Strike last out in the Vanderbilt Handicap. That race was loaded with talented sprinters so running third wasn’t too bad. The Larry Jones trainee does his best work at seven furlongs and is a Grade 1 winner at this distance. I think it will take his best race, but it will come as no surprise to find this warrior in the winners circle.

After entering the meet on a very big hot streak, Calvin Borel has won just a single time from thirty seven mounts. Could Ready’s Echo be the second win? His perfect two for two record at the seven furlongs distance tells me he could be. Todd Pletcher will throw on blinkers for the first time after this guy finished third in the Grade 3 Seagram Cup at Woodbine. The son of More Than Ready would benefit from a quick early pace.

Cornelio Velsquez is having one of the worst years of his career and is winning races at a mere 7% clip. It’s not all bad for the seasoned vet though. Gold Trippi won a minor stakes last out over Pyro. It looks like he is getting better and he can hang with the best in this race. His odds are very juicy at 20-1, considering the horse that he just beat is much lower at 4-1. I would definitely throw Gold Trippi in on exacta, trifecta, superfecta, pick 3 and pick 4 wagers.

My Pal Charlie looks tough at odds of 6-1. He finished second in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap at this distance earlier in the year. He ran fourth in the second running of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile last year. The son of Indian Charlie has struggled a bit lately, but will do better turning back in distance. Robby Albarado always rides well for trainer Albert Stall. I wouldn’t count this one out.

Who would’ve thought that we would get odds of 15-1 on a horse that beat Fabulous Strike three races ago? Certainly not I. True Quality is a speedster that is going to gun for the lead. Javier Castellano will be riding for the first time. His last race was a seventh place finish in a minor stakes over the turf at Penn National. That race didn’t play to his strengths and he will do better here. Could he go from flag fall to that’s all? It’s worth a shot at 15-1. Keep him on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.

Can I hit this race two years in a row? Probably not, but I’ll try. I like Pyro as my top pick even though I’ve been burned by him several times in the past. It looks like he is on the improve and I think he will do well at this distance. Who do you like? Leave a comment and let your voice be heard!