February 8, 2012

Free Aqueduct Picks for 12/15/10

I am a bit out of my element trying to handicap less than top class runners, but I decided to check out a few races at Aqueduct for Wednesday. The Cosmic Bob Stakes has a compact field of 5 going forward. Every horse in the race has a shot. I have also handicapped the 8th race on the card which is a starter allowance. Check out the video for my picks. I am cautiously optimistic about the chances of both!

Free Picks: Clark Handicap, Cigar Mile and Gazelle Stakes

Admittedly, I’ve been a bit cold lately. It happens to all of us. Super Bowl winner Drew Brees has bad games from time to time, and National League MVP Joey Votto goes through slumps. The good thing is they break out of them. I will too. I’ve got three really nice races to analyze for this Thanksgiving weekend. Let’s take a look!

Clark Handicap

Successful Dan (5-2) If you don’t know Charles Lopresti’s name yet, then you will very soon. The trainer has been on a tear this year. His charge in this race is a gelded son of Successful Appeal. He looked incredible mowing down Exhi last out in the Grade 3 Fayette. He’s got two win over the track. I love that Leparoux is in the irons. The Frenchman rides beautifully under the Twin Spires. The pace appears to be a bit of a mystery, but he’s got enough tactical speed to be close if things are slow. The price isn’t great, but this guy is a rising star and he has caught an easy field for his first Grade 1 attempt.

Cigar Mile

Bribon (?) With so many top contenders, this race promises to be the best of the weekend. It is very deserving of its Grade 1 billing with all the stars showing up this year. Instead of taking a horse dropping out of a Breeders Cup race, I’m going with the soon to be eight-year-old Bribon. The hard knocking old gelding loves the distance and is still in stellar form. He was last seen easily winning the Bold Ruler Handicap. Earlier in the year he finished third to amazing sprinter Majesticperfection. Future Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama was second there. He’s fresh and ready to roll. I love this pick.

Gazelle Stakes

No Such Word (5-2) I highly advise against trying to beat this one. She’s super consistent. Other than her 2010 debut, the only fillies to beat her this year are Blind Luck and Acting Happy. Her win in the Remington Oaks was awe inspiring as she drew clear by 6.5 lengths. Dubai Dancer at 4-1 is the only other horse worth considering. If somehow No Such Word runs a bad race she will be the one. Don’t count on it though!

Who do you like this weekend?


Free Pick: Sweet Ducky (4-1) in the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot

I’ve never understood why the Delta Jackpot doesn’t draw more top horses. The $1 million purse means the winner is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Kentucky Derby. This year it appears that trainers are finally waking up and smelling the coffee, as several high class runners are shipping in for a chance at big money. Speaking of big things, it was Big Drama who won the race in 2008. He recently earned a signature victory in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Let’s take a look at this years Delta Jackpot field.

Gourmet Dinner- This guy is shipping in from Calder after finishing second in a statebred race worth $365k. He was unbeaten in three starts before that. The trainer has opted to throw the blinkers on for this race. I like the way he regressed off a career best number last out, but didn’t fall too far. Look for him to be closing hard. The short stretch at Delta Downs won’t do him any favors though. It’s clear he is a top contender.

Classic Legacy- Moves to the Baffert barn after a rock solid third place finish in the Grey Stakes. I love the sweeping move he made in that race. Baffert saw fit to throw blinkers on. I’m a little concerned that Martin Garcia isn’t in for the ride. Instead, Joe Talamo will be riding. I’ve got nothing against Joe, but Baffert almost always send Garcia to ride his very best horses. He looks to be a cut below the best, but Baffert can be a miracle worker.

Aces N Kings- Was unbeaten until a horrid ride in the Sunday Silence Stakes. He’s clearly the most accomplished runner in the race with 5 wins. He’s won at distances ranging from 4.5 furlongs to 8 furlongs. He’s battle tested, but will have to run a career best race to take the cake.  I wouldn’t be surprised to see him do so. Calvin Borel is in to ride.

Rush Now- Son of Tiznow won by 13 3/4 lengths in his second start at Delaware. Followed that up with a win in the $75k Dover Stakes.  I love the way he has improved with each of his three starts, and I also love his :47 2/5 B work leading into this race. This is an enormous step up in class, but Tony Dutrow wouldn’t have him if he didn’t think this colt was ready.

Bug Juice- Has been very impressive sprinting in New York. The son of Mingun was purchased for $3k and has already earned $280,740. He fired a three furlong bullet on this track, and JJ Castellano is in to ride. I expect to see him on the lead, but for how long?

Blue Laser- The son of Bluegrass Cat is a very bad favorite at 3-1. He won the Grade 3 Grey Stakes over Polytrack last out, but has yet to race on dirt. I think his running style is the right type for this race, but I don’t think he is good enough to win.

Sweet Ducky- Kelly Breen trainee has to be considered on virtue of his win last out in a $70k minor stakes race at Monmouth. The son of Pulpit will have no problems getting this distance. I’m encouraged to see Joe Bravo in for the ride.  He fired a 1st of 83 :47 4/5 B  bullet for four furlongs on November 13. If he can improve on his last effort nobody is beating him.

This race presents a great wagering opportunity because of an excess of solid contenders. I can see 5 or 6 different horses in the winners circle. With that said, our top selection will be Sweet Ducky at 4-1. There is sufficient value at his morning line price. He has proved he can go the distance, and his late kick should be beneficial given the short stretch at Delta Downs. Look for him to sit close to the pace and blow past them when Joe Bravo decides its time to go for broke.  Here are some plays we like:

WIN on 9

Exacta: 9/1,2,3,4,6

Trifecta: 9/1,2,3,4/1,2,3,4,6

Dime Superfecta: 2,9/1,2,3,4,9/1,2,3,4,6,8,9/1,2,3,4,6,8,9

Pick 4 (Starts in Race 4): 6/2,7,8,9/1,2,5,6,7,8/9

Free Horse Racing Picks for the Autumn Stakes, and Hollywood Turf Cup!

The Breeders Cup may be over, but the great thing about horse racing is that another race is usually only moments away. I like to bet primarily on stakes racing, so Saturday and Sunday are the two most important days of the week for me from a handicapping standpoint.

This week I have identified two races that are playable. They are the Autumn Stakes at Woodbine, and the Hollywood Turf Cup at Hollywood Park. Let’s take a look!

Autumn Stakes (Race 8 @ Woodbine on Saturday)

Smart Bid (6-1) I’ve watched this horse run for years, and he is quite a good one. He made a long overdue 2010 debut at Keeneland where he finished third with a wide trip as the favorite on October 17. I actually bet the winner in that race, and I didn’t expect Smart Bid to be ready just yet.  The second place finisher from that race has returned to win.

With a race under his belt we can expect him to be much more formidable. The son of Smart Strike has enough tactical speed for jockey Anna Napravnik to place him wherever she pleases, but I expect to see him coming from behind due to an excess of speed in this race. If he runs like he is capable of doing I expect him to leave the competition in his dust, but there is always the risk that he isn’t the same horse. The price is nice at 6-1.

Hollywood Turf Cup (Race 8 @ Hollywood on Saturday)

Treat Gently (?) This mare is shipping west for trainer Bill Mott after a solid 4th place finish behind Winchester in the Turf Invitational at Belmont Park. The daughter of Cape Cross will get Patrick Valenzuela on her back this time. P-Val is one of the best in the business and should work her out a better trip than she has been getting in recent races. The Juddmonte Farms mare loves the distance, and she picked a weak group of boys to try and grab a Grade 1 victory from. She’s going to be deadly turning for home.

Hollywood Hit and Wonderlandbynight in with big chances on opening day at Keeneland

I like Hollywood Hit (4-1) and Wonderlandbynight (3-1) in the Phoenix, and Alcibiades Stakes, respectively. They are races 8 and 9 at Keeneland tomorrow. Watch the video to find out more!

Free Pick: J.B’s Thunder in the Dixiana Futurity

I like Al Stall’s son of Thunder Gulch, J.B.’s Thunder, to win the Grade 1 Dixiana Futurity for two-year-olds going 8.5 furlongs at Keeneland on Saturday. I expect him to a be nice price and will be betting Win-Place on him. With a good effort he could progress to the Breeders Cup Juvenile next month. Watch the video to find out more.

Free Picks for Saturday @ Belmont

Tomorrow is a huge day of racing at Belmont Park! I’m too tired to say much, but here are my picks for the big races. I highly encourage giving my Pick 4 ticket a shot for $18.

Vosburgh Stakes: Driven By Success (4-1)

Flower Bowl Invitational: Shared Account (6-1)

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational: Paddy O’ Prado (3-1)

Beldame Stakes: Life At Ten (9-5)

Jockey Club Gold Cup: Rail Trip (5-2)

Pick 4: 2,7,8/1,6/9/1,2,8

Good luck!

Saratoga Pick 6 Play ($443,274 carryover)

The Pick 6 is my favorite wager. I rarely play it, but when I do it seems like I usually get close to the prize. I’ve had 5 of 6 many times, but at my young age of 20 I’ve yet to successfully hit the entire sequence. I have been alive in the 6th race 3 times only to fall short. I hope that doesn’t happen tomorrow as I will be making a big play. Let’s breakdown the Pick 6 at Saratoga on September 1, 2010!

Race 5: I’m not going to over think this race. I’m using #1 Arrr Pirates Booty (3-1) and #4 Stroke (2-1). The Linda Rice barn has been nearly unstoppable so I expect the favorite to take top honors here.

Race 6: I’m using #1 Talk To Nick (4-1) and #6 Dance Floor Maniac (4-1). I like the speed that Talk To Nick is likely to flash from the rail. He faded last out, but I think he could go from flag fall to thats all turning back in distance for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Dance Floor Maniac is super consistent and will get first jump on Talk To Nick. I feel pretty confident I will get through this leg with just these two, but I wouldn’t mind having #2 Devilish Due.

Race 7:  I’m not wild about this race. I could see myself going down here. My horses are #5 Power Dreams (6-1) and #6 Precious Metal (7/2). The latter is a fast working first time starter and the former picked up the pieces in a maiden claimer to be third last out. Stretching out on the turf there is no telling what might happen. The rail horse is favored for Linda Rice, but I don’t like babies that haven’t worked five furlongs yet.

Race 8: This is a tough race, but I feel confident with Avanta (8-1), Pleine Forme (5-1), and Believe In A.P. (8-1). All three hold an excellent hand. Avanta has the benefit of jockey Johnny Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher. I like her turf pedigree and she will be tough while throwing the blinkers on after a stalking victory against maiden claiming company in which Pletcher swiped her away from Bill Mott. Pleine Forme picks up Ramon Dominguez who seemingly could have had the mount on Arch Support who is lower odds. Pleine Forme is trained by turf expert Graham motion. She scored a first out victory over the Poly Track at Presque Isle. Believe In A.P. put in a good effort last out for Jay Em Ess and Dick Dutrow finishing a close third despite closing into slow fractions. Julien Leparoux will ride and he is always an asset on the turf.

Race 9:  I’m going out on a limb by singling Sumfun (6-1). From five starts at the distance he has won three times and finished second and third. He won an allowance at Lone Star earlier this year before finishing second to the grizzled veteran Atticus Kristy at Churchill Downs. The son of Menifee was claimed last out by Gary Diprima who  saddles 19% winners first after the claim. He’s in with a big shot, but I wouldn’t mind having Matt’s A Giant (6-1) and Sly (4-1).

Race 10: He isn’t what he used to be, but I’m hoping that The Roundhouse (4-1) can get me home in the final leg of the Pick 6.  He is making a slight class drop after finishing fourth beaten three lengths in his last start. I’m hoping he can find some of the run that allowed him to win an optional claiming even at Aqueduct earlier this year. I’m also using French Transition (12-1). The gelding son was a good second on the turf at this level two starts back.

The total cost of my ticket is $96. Win or lose, I’ll be on the edge of my seat the whole way cheering my horses on. Who do YOU like?

Free Video Pick: Blessed Moon (Race 2 @ SAR on 9/1/10)

Enjoy the video! Feel free to share your thoughts by leaving a comment below.

Free Saratoga Picks for 8/25/10

****CLICK HERE TO LEARN MORE ABOUT OUR 2011 SARATOGA PICKS****

Today is my 20th birthday! In order to celebrate I decided to release todays Saratoga card for free. I feel the strongest about races 6,8, and 9. I’ll be playing all of these races myself and I wish you the best of luck if you decide to bet them too.

Don’t forget that this weekend is two huge days of racing which includes the Pacific Classic, Travers Stakes, Kings Bishop, Personal Ensign, and many more events. I’ll be releasing selections for all of these races. Check back here late Wednesday night or Thursday morning for more information!

Race 1

Remark (9-5) This filly is bred to go 9 furlongs. I’m not wild about the fact that she hasn’t raced in two months, but the connections are top notch and she has the tactical speed to be in the perfect spot.

Race 2

Riona (10-1) Bluegrass Cat produces a very strong 18% first time winners. I like the 1:02 Bg move on August 2. This is too good of a price to pass up on.

Race 6

Silent Joy (8-1) This is my favorite play of the day. I absolutely LOVE Kitten’s Joy progeny on the turf. She is working very well and I love that 1:00 2/5 five furlong move on August 13. The mare has produced two turf winners from four starters. She is more than good enough to win this race at a fat price.

PICK 4: 1,7,8/2,3,6,7,8,9,10/2/1,4

Race 7

Skipadate (12-1) You could make a case for nearly every horse in this race so I decided to go with a price runner. The Dale Romans trained son of Skip Away has won twice this year. He has a big closing kick and I expect the pace to be a hot one. Jockey JJ Castellano is riding as good as he ever has this meet and will make sure this colt has a chance to win.

Race 8

Stormy’s Majesty (5-2) He was in too deep last out when the connections opted to go for the Jim Dandy. This statebred spot is perfect for him. Prior to losing the Jim Dandy, he was a winner of his first three starts. I’m still skeptical of the favored Ibboyee and wonder if he wants to go 9 furlongs.

Race 9

Excited (5-1) Todd Pletcher debuts 18% first time winners. This filly has excellent turf pedigree as a daughter of Giant’s Causeway out of a Thunder Gulch mare. I love her work pattern and expect her to be in the mix with Johnny Velazquez in the irons.