February 8, 2012

2011 Whitney Invitational Handicap Preview

The Whitney Handicap is the premier race of the Saratoga meeting for older horses. The 1 ⅛ miles race is a grueling test which includes the likes of Alydar, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer, Awesome Again, Lemon Drop Kid, Invasor and Lawyer Ron among its winners.

Last year we nailed Blame ($8.80) as our top selection on the way to a $2,564 Pick 4. We also had Commentator ($10.80) as our top selection and play of the day when he won in 2008.

The 2011 edition of the Whitney looks very strong and could provide a lucrative payoff if you back the right racehorse. Let’s take a look at the field.

Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider): We had this tough runner as our top pick in each of his last two races. The first of those events was the Stephen Foster Handicap where he tried to make a move up the rail, but failed to close effectively at odds of 18-1. After that we backed him again in the Suburban. It turned out to be the right move as he romped home at odds of nearly 14-1. Alex Solis was aboard for the first time that day and elects to stay aboard even though he had options here. Now that everyone else is ready to jump on the train I am ready to hop off. While I like the horse he was a much more appealing prospect at double digit odds. He gets the rail today and has never won going two turns. I’ll pass at 4-1, but recognize that he could win this race.

Friend or Foe (Friends Lake x Unbridled Star by Unbridled) I’m bullish on this colt in the long term, but I don’t like that he has just won race this year. Even though it was a good race in which he defeated Rail Trip by a head, I wish he had a bit more seasoning. On the bright side he proved how talented he is by winning the Empire Classic Handicap by five lengths in his penultimate race last year. I’m confident that he will score a break through win soon, but I don’t know if it will be in the Whitney at 8-1. Jose Lezcano picks up the mount from Alex Solis.

Morning Line (Tiznow x Indian Snow by AP Indy) The Nick Zito trainee scored his best lifetime win over this distance when he won the Pennsylvania Derby last year. Since then he has become a Grade 1 winner by taking the Carter Handicap and was involved in a very close finish in the Breeders Cups Dirt Mile. I’m willing to excuse his last out effort in the Salvator Mile where he ended up fifth. Regular jockey John Velazquez was gone that day and the first three finishers came back to run well with Soaring Empire winning, Kensei finishing behind him and Rule taking a minor stakes race at Saratoga. Things could get heated up front so I expect Johnny V to try and get him to relax behind a few horses. He is as good as any horse in this race and deserves consideration at odds of 10-1.

Giant Oak (Giant’s Causeway x Crafty Oak by Crafty Prospector) The first thing I notice when I look at this horse is the shiny :58 4/5 five furlong breezing bullet he fired over the Saratoga track on July 31. The Donn Handicap winner is clearly getting better as he gets older. His last two races have seen him make two furious charges down the lane only to come up short. The pace wasn’t particularly hot in either of those races, but it could be torrid in this one. That means he will have a big shot at winning. The only bad thing I can see for him is that he will have Shaun Bridgmahon riding. Nothing against the guy, but he is ice cold right now. It is very clear to me that this is a horse that is doing well and thriving at Saratoga and if not for this being a highly contentious field he might be my pick.

Tizway (Tiznow x Bethany by Dajyur) We had this great colt as our top selection in the Metropolitan Mile last out where he cruised to an easy win smashing the clock in 1:32 4/5 at odds of 4-1. Many will be hot to bet him after such an amazing performance, but I will encourage caution before doing so. First, we must consider that that win came over what is clearly his favorite track. Tizway has dominated at Belmont Park with a win in the Kelso and third place finishes in the 2009 Jockey Club Gold Cup and 2010 Met Mile. Furthermore, this colt has proven that his optimal distance is one mile. I’m not saying Tizway can’t or wont win, but the price will not be generous enough as I expect him to be bet well below his morning line odds of 6-1. Rajiv Maragh gets the call to ride.

TwinSpires.com

Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) The Todd Pletcher trainee raced near a very soft pace last out in the Stephen Foster Handicap and just missed holding on while finishing second beaten a neck to upset winner Pool Play. His last win came at Fair Grounds in the New Orleans Handicap where he beat Apart and Giant Oak. His record at the distance is incredible with 2 wins from 3 starts. I know it’s only 2 wins, but when you consider that those wins were the aforementioned New Orleans Handicap and Louisiana Derby that record sounds much better. In the end he rates  below my top few horses in here, but would be no surprise for top notch connections. JJ Castellano rides back after boarding him for the first time last out.

Rail Trip (Jump Start x Sweet Trip by Carson City) It’s been a long road to redemption for the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup winner, but it appears he is back in top form for Jay Em Ess Stable and trainer Richard Dutrow. His first race in over six months came on June 5 in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont Park where he set a very rapid pace and was only narrowly defeated by Friend Or Foe. Clearly that is a strong race for a gelding that hadn’t been out in so long. Rail Trip races best near the front and I will look for Ramon Dominguez to put him on the lead. If he is fit enough he could take them all the way at a juicy price of 12-1.

Headache (Tapit x Pamric by Woodman) As horse bettors it is our job to look for the horses that are getting better and capitalize at a big price. We picked Headache to win the Cornhusker Handicap last out and he came through at odds of 9/2. That was a big effort as Miguel Mena angled him outside and he roared past Grade 1 winner Awesome Gem for a 2 ½ length victory. Trainer Mike Maker is no spring chicken and if you don’t know who he is then you should check him out on Google ASAP. The closer will get a big pace to chase and it looks like he is in great form right now. I highly encourage including him on Pick 4 tickets at odds of 20-1. He would come as no surprise if he were to win the Whitney. Ken and Sarah Ramsey might have a big time runner in this former claimer.

Rodman (Malibu Moon x Crystal Gem) It seems like we have hit every horse in this race at some point and Rodman is no exception. He was our big price horse in the Met Mile as we nailed the $378 exacta cold with Rodman second at huge odds of 36-1. He had no business being such a big price in there as the horse has proven he can run with the best of ‘em by easily winning the Irish Tower in his previous start. Rodman was a distant third in the Suburban last out where JJ Castellano put him on the lead and he set fast fractions. While this guy can be effective on the front he is clearly better when closing. His second place finish in the Met happened with him rallying from as far back as ninth. I’m a little worried this isn’t his best distance, but with a perfect 2 for 2 record at Saratoga and a boat load of talent this isn’t a horse you want to leave off your Pick 4 ticket. Edgar Prado gets the mount back for the first time since 2009. I’ll make him the top pick at 20-1.

Apart (Flatter x Detach by Unbridled) Last year’s Super Derby winner comes to Saratoga in search of his first Grade 1 win after finishing third in the Stephen Foster last out. He races for Al Stall and will have Julien Leparoux up for the second time. The closer will get a very fast pace to chase in here, but I’m just not sold that he is good enough to even hit the board in this race. I’m going to pass odds of 6-1 which I consider to be a huge underlay.

Duke Of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) He defeated one of the deepest field of handicap horses we have seen in a very long time two back in the Charles Town Classic. On his best day this horse can win this, but he is sort of like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. You never know which one you will get. He closed well last out in the Stephen Foster even after having a very slow pace in front of him and even led at one point before ending up fourth. He has a sharp four furlong work in :46 4/6 B over the track which rated first of 95 moves. I’m bullish at 8-1 and look for him to be finishing very well under Joe Bravo.

In summation my top selection to win the Whitney Invitational Handicap from Saratoga is Rodman (20-1). I love that he is a perfect 2 for 2 at Saratoga and he should race from off the pace with Edgar Prado back up. He showed us in the Metropolitan Mile that he is still a highly talented individual and over looking him at such a big price is a huge mistake. Horses to include on the Pick 4 other than my top selection are Giant Oak, Headache and Duke of Mischief. If you feel like going very deep I would also throw in Morning Line and Rail Trip.

To get our full card picks for all of the horse racing action at Saratoga check out our Saratoga Picks page.

Betting online for the Whitney Handicap is convenient and easy. Just head over to Twin Spires or  TVG where new players get a $100+ sign up bonus!

2011 Easy Goer Stakes betting preview

Wow, the $60k ungraded Easy Goer Stakes came up tough! Three of the five entrants are stakes winner while two are graded stakes winners. Let’s take a look at the entrants. Although the field is short, a strong opinion could lead to a good payoff given the competitiveness of the race.

Friend or Foe (Friends Lake x Unbridled Star by Unbridled)- I have always had a lot of faith in this horse and he was my top pick when finishing sixth in the Travers at odds of 24-1. Since then he won the Empire Classic by five lengths and finished fifth beaten three lengths in the Cigar Mile. The colt is a perfect 3 for 3 at Belmont Park and jockey Alex Solis can place him wherever he pleases. I’m projecting a fast pace so look for him to sit right behind the front runners.

Tahitian Warrior (Maria’s Mon x Chatique by Deputy Minister)- I bet this horse in his career debut where he scored by 4 3/4 lengths at odds of 7-1. He hasn’t been nearly that good of a price since, but he could provide value in the Easy Goer. He is a fresh horse and stretching out from 6.5 furlongs to 8.5 furlongs means he ought to be on the lead, but if not he will be very close. This is his first time going two turns which is something I don’t like. I find it incredible that they havent tried the turf with him yet given his strong breeding.Look for him to win next out.

Rail Trip (Jump Start x Sweet Trip by Carson City)- Winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup in 2009, he has missed a lot of time since finishing poorly in the Woodward Stakes last out. He is a winner of three races from four tries at the distance, two Grade 2 races. The works are very strong and he should be close to the front. Ramon Dominguez sees fit to ride this horse for Rick Dutrow. Rail Trip is a very, very live racehorse.

Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold your Peace) Failed to fire last out in the Alysheba. Before that he finished first in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap at Fair Grounds. He should prompt the pace, but things could be too hot for him today. I question if he is up to running with the likes of these right now.

Convocation (Pulpit x Shade Dance by Nureyev)- Lagged behind a hot pace last out and picked up the pieces to be second in the Grade 3 West Chester. He has finished second 5 times in 7 attempts on this Belmont track. He wouldn’t be a shock, but I don’t think he is capable of winning this one. On the plus side, this race is third off the shelf which is always a strong angle.

I’ll take Friend or Foe as my top pick. He is the only horse that I believe could be going up whereas the rest may have seen their best races already. He could be in the perfect spot turning for home too. Rail Trip is a close second choice. If he reverts to the form that let him win the Hollywood Gold Cup he might jog here. Best of luck and check out our horse betting page for information on how to play the race.

Fly Down & A Little Warm head contentious Jim Dandy Stakes

“Look at Bernardini! He didn’t break a sweat, and its 90 degrees!”

The Jim Dandy Stakes is contested at 9 furlongs on the dirt for three-year-olds at Saratoga. It is a Grade 2 event and is typically used as a springboard towards the more important Grade 1 Travers Stakes the following month. Last year’s Jim Dandy was taken by Kensei. The colt was on a hot streak at the time and hasn’t done much since. Before Kensei it was Macho Again, Street Sense, and Bernardini. All three of those winners had or went on to have excellent careers. I have a feeling this years winner could be destined for bigger things too.

The race is headlined by Grade 2 Dwyer Stakes winner Fly Down. He took the Dwyer two back by a massive 6 lengths before finishing second to Drosselmeyer in the Belmont Stakes. With a better trip Fly Down could have been the victor over Drosselmeyer, as he was when he beat him in the Dwyer. Trainer Nick Zito has Fly Down working up a storm. His latest workout was a :47 1/5 four furlong move that was the fastest of 77 works. The son of Mineshaft has won two times from three starts at the Jim Dandy distance. He will be favored and for good reason. Fly Down is a fast racehorse. However, if he wants to win he will have to best a colt who finished in front of him in the Louisiana Derby.

That colt is A Little Warm. He is trained by Anthony Dutrow and will be ridden by John Velazquez. The son of Stormin Fever was given a respite after failing to gain enough earnings to compete in the Kentucky Derby. That respite ended with an allowance win at Delaware over a decent competitor in Miner’s Reserve. That win was very important because it showed that A Little Warm could relax behind the leaders in a route race. All in all the race was very solid, especially so given that he hadn’t raced since late March.  A Little Warm is a classy colt. He finished second in the Louisiana Derby and Hutcheson Stakes. He won the ungraded Spectacular Bid Stakes. The Virginia bred looks ready to run a career best race. He will have to do so if he wants to win against this competitive field!

Afleet Express comes into the Jim Dandy with a good reputation, but he won’t be one of the top two betting choices. The son of Afleet Alex took a nw2l (non-winners of two lifetime races) event two back by 7 3/4 lengths. The James Jerkens trainee earned a massive 113 BRIS figure for that effort. He validated that win by taking the Grade 3 Pegasus Stakes over  Afleet Again, and Jackson Bend. He has the benefit of hot jockey JJ Castellano riding him. Despite his strong efforts it is likely that he will need to move forward yet again if he wants to come out on top here.

Bet at Twinspires!

Steinbeck will be racing for trainer Aidan O’Brien. The trainer is like the European version of Todd Pletcher. His colt will be racing on nine days rest after finishing 2nd in a Group 3 event at Leopardstown. Shipping across the pond on nine days rest means he is a total non-factor in my handicapping. I won’t include him on any tickets. He is still a nice colt, but he has too much to overcome.

Stormy’s Majesty and Friend Or Foe enter the race undefeated. Both have won three races. Friend Or Foe easily won the statebred Mike Lee Stakes last out over eventual New York Derby winner Ibboyee. That race was at seven furlongs. He will have to be something special to win this race going two turns for the first time. Stormy’s Majesty won a statebred optional claiming event last out by a whopping eight lengths going one mile. Both colts are up against it, but the have bright futures after this race.

Aikenite will race for Todd Pletcher. He made a failed try at Preakness Stakes two back before taking an allowance race. This son of Yes It’s True has plenty of talent, but he probably isn’t ready for this type of competition just yet. I’m a bit surprised that Pletcher entered him. David Cohen will retain the mount. Don’t count him out. Looks can be deceiving, but  I don’t see it happening.

Calvin Borel will return as the pilot of Miner’s Reserve for this race. The Nick Zito trainee has run two strong races prior to the Dandy. He finished second to A Little Warm after setting the pace last out. Before that he won an allowance race at Belmont Park. It will be up to Miner’s Reserve to ensure an honest pace. Can he get brave on the lead and keep going? I guess we will have to wait to find out.

The last runner I haven’t mentioned is Winslow Homer. He looked like a top Kentucky Derby contender after a strong win in the Holy Bull Stakes. Sadly, he fell off the trail because of an injury. He returned to the races with a third place finish behind Concord Point  who freaked to win the Iowa Derby by 9 lengths for trainer Bob Baffert. I think you can forgive Winslow’s Homer’s effort. He will enter this race a bit under the radar after failing to win his comeback race, but he is every bit as good as he ever was. A win from him wouldn’t surprise me at all.

Who is your top pick to win the Jim Dandy Stakes? Leave a comment and discuss! You can get my selections for the Jim Dandy, Diana, Haskell, and many other races this weekend by purchasing my selections below. Purchasers of any Saratoga package will also get picks for the Haskell Invitational!

Saratoga/Del Mar Picks