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2011 Breeders Cup Mile Preview

November 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment

**Click the link to learn about our Breeders Cup Picks. Also, check out our online horse betting page!**

The Breeders Cup Mile will have added meaning this year as champion mare Goldikova tries to take the event for a record fourth time. Can you remember the last horse to win it before her? It was Kip Deville. She beat him in his title defense to get her first triumph in the race. I’m greatly looking forward to watching her compete on Saturday at Churchill Downs.

Let’s break down the field.

Goldikova (Anabaa x Born Gold by Blushing Groom) What can I say about this brilliant mare that hasn’t already been said? She’s the best thing out there, period. She’s won twice from five starts this year and finished second on three occasions.  Her losses came to incredible horses like Canford Cliffs, Immortal Verse and Dream Again. No shame in losing to them. Some say she has lost a step, which could be true. However if she is 90% horse she was in 2010 then she should whack this bunch. The rail could be difficult, but great horses do great things. She will overcome it.To be the best you have to beat the best and this is the one they will have to take down. I wish the field good luck; they’re going to need it.

Zoffany (Dansili x Tyranny byMachiavellian) Not sure what happened last out in the Shadwell Mile where he was never competitive. His claim to fame is running second to Frankel in the St. James Palace Stakes. I’m not sure he is good enough to compete here.

Courageous Cat (Storm Cat x Tranquility Lake by Rahy) He has popped a 100+ Beyer Speed Figure in 5 of his last 6 races. Those races include a win in the Shoemaker Mile two back and a runner up effort in the Woodbine Mile last out. Patrick Valenzuela will have him near the front where he thrives. I really wish he had one more race, but despite that he will be among the top contenders in this spot.

Mr. Commons (Artie Schiller x Justabout by Apalachee) Three-year-old was firing hard in the lane of the Oak Tree Mile, but couldn’t catch Jeranimo. He got a huge 106 Beyer Speed Figure for that race and if he can reproduce it he is a win contender. However, I’m thinking the figure is a bit inflated and he can’t do it again.

Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat x Chipeta Springs by Alydar) It was nice to see him break through with his first win of 2011 last out when he took win honors in the Shadwell Mile. He finished second in this race last year. The Christophe Clement trainee is a warrior and getting his first win in a Breeders Cup race would be a great way to end his career.

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Get Stormy (Stormy Atlantic x Foolish Gal by Kiri’s Clown) New York trainer Thomas Bush has this one training like a bear. He’s raced well all year and owns wins in the Makers Mark Mile and Turf Invitational over this track. Garrett Gomez will ride the horse for the second time and his mount will be live.

Jeranimo (Congaree x Jera by Jeblar) This horse is kind of like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. You never know if you’re going to get the good Jeranimo or the bad Jeranimo. The good one, who came out last out in the Oak Tree Mile, would be a top contender here. The bad one; well not so much. I’m willing to say he brings his A game this time and that means you need to consider him at a price.

Byword (Peintre Celebre x Binche by Woodman) Was last seen winning the Group 2 Prix Dollar at Longchamp. Andre Fabre trainee is 0 for 2 against Goldikova in Europe. I don’t see why he’s going to be able to beat her now.

Court Vision (Gulch x Weekend Storm by Storm Bird) He’s a brilliant miler when on his game, but recent races suggest he is over the hill.

Sidney’s Candy (Candy Ride x Fair Exchange by Storm Cat) Now with Todd Pletcher, his MO is still the same. He needs a soft pace to win and he’s not likely to get one. Even if he did, he’s facing vastly superior horses. I cant see him winning.

Strong Suit (Rahy x Helwa by Silver Hawk) Three-year-old has finished behind Zoffany twice. If I cant like Zoffany then I’m going to have a hard time liking Strong Suit.

Compliance Officer (Officer x Purple Hills by Dynaformer) What a feel good story. Claimed for $25k at the end of 2010, he has reeled off five consecutive wins since. Three of those wins came in NY bred Stakes races. He blasted away powerfully last out to win by five lengths in the Mohawk. As much as I want to like him, it’s very hard. He’s facing much higher caliber animals todays. It’s going to take something crazy for him to win.

Turallure (Wando x Personal Allure by Wekiva Springs) I love trainer Charles Lopresti. He is one of the best in the game at what he does. Jockey Julien Leparoux isn’t too shabby either. They hooked up to win the Woodbine Mile last out and before that he beat a deep field in the Bernard Beruch at Saratoga. He’s got a big shot to win the Breeders Cup Mile.

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Early look at the 2011 Breeders Cup Mile

October 16, 2011 By 2 Comments

by Martin Noonan

Over 27,000 fans at Keeneland yesterday were not only treated to a beautiful Kentucky fall day but they also witnessed Aiden O’Brien’s Irish bred filly Together romp in the Queen Elizabeth II returning $11.20 to her backers.  Her victory not only proved that she is a great race horse, but because she so soundly defeated the post time favorite, Winter Memories, it proved once again how dominate European turf runners are over their American counterparts.  The result of this race raises the question as to whether the American turfers can finally capture the Breeders Cup Mile, or will three time winner Goldikova win the race for the fourth time, breaking her own record.

Goldikova was foiled in Ireland in 2005 but spent much of her racing career in France under the watchful eye of trainer Freddy Head.  Freddy Head is no stranger to the Breeders Cup Mile as he not only was Goldikova’s trainer in her 2008, 2009, and 2010 victories, but he also won the race twice as a jockey in 1987 and 1998 aboard the great French runner Miesque.  Goldikova has won 17 of 26 races and over $6.8 million in her career.  She will likely be the post time favorite as well as the favorite of those who like to watch history in the making as Goldikova tries for his fourth consecutive Breeders Cup Mile victory.

But, is Goldikova’s quest for history in jeopardy?  She has lost three of her last four starts.  While she has not disgraced herself in any of those G1 races, her trainer has been quoted as saying that “maybe she does not have the same turn of foot as she used to and maybe the mileage is starting to catch up”.  Goldikova’s regular jockey, Olivier Peslier has hinted that she may not take to the soft turf.

The logical horse to beat Goldikova would be Christophe Clement’s three-time Eclipse Award winner, Gio Ponti.  Gio Ponti has 12 wins in 28 starts and has earned slightly more than $6 million in his career.  He finished second to Goldikova in last year’s event.  Gio Ponti is likely to be the second favorite at 7-2 and certainly the sentimental favorite as this will be the last race of his career.  Although Clement calls New York his home, he was born in and honed his trade in France.  Clement is notorious for being an excellent turf trainer.

After winning the Shadwell Mile at Keeneland, Clements comments were positive excusing Gio Ponti’s less than stellar races this year as “a bit of bad luck”.  After watching Gio Ponti’s second in a row Shadwell victory you have to conclude that he is an improving race horse.  Ramon Dominquez gets the mount for the 6 year old son of Tale Of The Cat.  If the turf is firm this could be Gio Ponti’s year.

All things considered the Breeders Cup Mile looks to be a rematch from last year race.  However, what would a race analysis be without a longshot possibility or a “feel good” story.  That possibility is provided by a 5 year old son of Stormy Atlantic, Get Stormy.

Get Stormy finished second in the Shadwell Mile behind the late surging Gio Ponti.  The 13 to 1 longshot rated behind front running Sidney’s Candy to the top of the stretch.  When asked by his jockey Garrett Gomez, he found a new gear charging to the lead in the middle of the track only to be nipped at the wire by the heavily favored Gio Ponti.  In all I thought Get Stormy ran a gutsy race in a very impressive performance.

Get Stormy is trained by a very good but very “under the radar” trainer, Tom Bush.  Tom is  mostly a New York based trainer and has a little bit of turf specialty.  He has very high winning percentages at the Saratoga and Belmont meets but is much quieter in the winter.  His horses are always placed well after the horse has had a race.  Although Tom said that Get Stormy would have to have a big race to enter him in the Breeder’s Cup Mile, I think Tom got that race.

The Get Stormy team lost one of their members a short time ago.  Tom Roach who bred and raised Get Stormy on his Parish Hill farm died this fall.  The 63 year old Roach would always be on hand to watch Get Stormy whenever he ran in Kentucky.  Most recently he was in the winner’s circle when Get Stormy won the Woodford Reserve Turf Classic at Churchill Downs and Keeneland’s Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile.

Get Stormy missed most of the Saratoga meet with a tendon issue but recovered in time for a second place finish in the Bernard Baruch.  According to Bush, Get Stormy “is a big heavy horse that takes a lot of training”.

I’m betting that Get Stormy will move forward from his performance in the Shadwell Mile and perhaps hold off Gio Ponti and an aging Goldikova for a Breeders Cup upset.

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2011 Breeders Cup Future Odds & Picks

September 6, 2011 By 2 Comments

 

Wynn|Encore has posted a future book of odds for the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup. I always like to take a look at stuff like this. Let’s break down each race with a look at key contenders and some of the plays I would make if  given the chance.

Breeders Cup Classic

This is going to be quite an interesting race in 2011. The older horse division is quite lacking and the three year olds have been largely inconsistent. This leaves room for two types of horses we normally wouldn’t consider all too much. That is a filly or invader from overseas.

The latter may come in the form of 6-1 morning line favorite So You Think. The New Zealand bred is a winner of 12 races from 17 starts and he most recently took the Group 1 Irish Champion Stakes. Before that he beat 2010 Arc winner Workforce in the Eclipse Stakes. Trainer Aidan O’Brien has never been shy about sending horses to America and with a $5 million purse on the line it isn’t hard to imagine this one making the trip.

My first choice for a wager would be Uncle Mo at a fat price of 40-1. He couldn’t have been any more impressive in the King’s Bishop where he raced off a very long layoff and proved he could rate while being nipped a nose at one of the hardest distances around. The colt has more pure talent than any horse in training and if he can put it all together it’s hard for me to see him losing. The 10 furlongs distance is a question, but at the huge price of 40-1 he is well worth the risk. He should race again in the Pennsylvania Derby and then target the Classic, but nothing is set in stone.

After Uncle Mo I would have to snatch up his stable mate Stay Thirsty at 12-1. The late blooming son of Bernardini has proven himself with three strong runs in the Belmont Stakes, Jim Dandy Stakes and Travers Stakes. If he can run as well under the twin spires as he does in New York then he will likely be among the first 3 choices on race day.

It would be hard for me to talk anyone off the filly Havre de Grace at 9-1. She won the Woodward easily and if a big time European horse doesn’t show up she could among the top 2 or 3 choices on race day.

Breeders Cup Ladies Classic

I’m not too wild about this race from a future betting perspective. The top two in the division are Blind Luck and Havre de Grace. The casino knows that and both are 2-1. Hardly any value taking a 2-1 shot two months before the race. Two fillies I think stand a chance of upsetting are the three year olds It’s Tricky and Zazu. The former is a good price at 14-1 with the latter sitting at 20-1. It’s Tricky posted strong efforts in the Mother Goose as well as the CCA Oaks. If she rebounds with a win in the Cotillion she will be a much lower price on Breeders Cup Friday. Zazu was most recently second in her first try against older horses in the Clement L. Hirsch at Del Mar.

Breeders Cup Dirt Mile

This is another race where we could see Uncle Mo. If he ends up here I think he rolls so I have to go with him at 25-1. I believe he ends up in the Classic, but I’d hate to see him here and not have a few bucks to win. After Mo I like the rapidly improving Justin Phillip. The Zayat owned colt won the Woody Stephens Stakes on the Belmont Stakes undercard and was most recently third behind Caleb’s Posse and Uncle Mo in the King’s Bishop. If he keeps improving he will have a big shot at an enormous price of 30-1. He is currently targeting the Vosburgh and may be Breeders Cup Sprint bound, but at such a huge price it’s worth taking a chance.

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Breeders Cup Sprint

The Sprint has always been a race where something crazy can happen. Last year we saw Big Drama take the field gate to wire at 6-1 and he is favored to do so again at the same price in the future book. On his best day it’s hard to see anyone competing with him, but the horse has had just 2 races since last year. If he makes it to the gate and he is the same horse that won last year he will be strong.

As far as horse betting goes, I’ve got to look in another direction. Last year’s third place finisher, Smiling Tiger, is being offered at 14-1. The son of Hold That Tiger has won 3 graded races this year and has proven he likes the track/distance at Churchill Downs. When he’s on his game he can run with anyone.

Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf

It’s tough for me to get excited about this race. I’ve never been much of a fan of turf fillies. The favorite is the razor sharp Midday at 3-1. The mare won the Group 1 Nassau two back and was second to Twice Over in the Juddmonte International last out. She won this race in 2009 and was second last year.

Summer Soiree is an interesting option at 35-1. She was last seen winning the Del Mar Oaks. She is a lightning quick filly, but could have a tough time at the distance.

Daveron, winner of the Ballston Spa last out, should be considered at 30-1. She is only now coming into her own and could be peaking for Team Valor in the Breeders Cup.

Breeders Cup Turf

The co-favorites to win this race are Aidan O’Brien’s Cape Blanco and So You Think at 5-1. We have already spoke about the latter in the Classic division. Cape Blanco has crushed the competition in his time in America with wins in the Man O’ War and Arlington Million. He should be a force if he makes it to the race, but taking him at 5-1 isn’t advisable.

Irish Derby and Secretariat Stakes winner Treasure Beach is definitely tempting at 20-1, but I worry that O’Brien would keep him home if Cape Blanco is doing well.

Breeders Cup Mile

Goldikova seems to have this race on lock down and she will try for a record fourth win in 2011. The mare is as good as they come and hasn’t slowed down. Her odds stand at 5/2 in the future book. The only horse I could really see beating her is Courageous Cat and his odds are too low at 5-1.

What do you think of the upcoming 2011 Breeders Cup? Plan to make some bets? Check out our Horse Betting page to learn more.

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Gradedstakes.com Eclipse Awards Ballot

December 28, 2010 By 6 Comments

The above photo is of 2009 Horse of the Year Rachel Alexandra. This years Eclipse Awards are every bit as exciting as last year when she took the top spot. I didn’t get a vote, but if I did here are the horses I would’ve selected. Let’s take a look!

Two-Year-Old Male: Uncle Mo wins this in an open and shut case. The son of Indian Charlie only raced three times, but won emphatically in each start. His Breeders Cup Juvenile victory is one of the most incredible I’ve ever seen. It will be exciting to see how he fares in 2011.

Two-Year-Old Female: Awesome Feather did everything asked of her in 6 starts this year. She capped it with a Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies win. Other interesting horses include Position Limit and Turbulent Descent. All three will be strong contenders in 2011, but the Breeders Cup winner gets the nod for the Eclipse Award.

Three-Year-Old Male: Lookin At Lucky has to take this on virtue of his wins in the Preakness Stakes and Haskell Invitational. The son of Smart Strike has one of the biggest hearts I’ve ever seen. The other horse here is Eskendereya. He only raced 3 times before retiring due to injury, but his win in the Wood Memorial was one of the most impressive performances I’ve ever seen by a sophomore runner.

Three-Year-Old Female: Blind Luck seems to know where the wire is. She won three races by a nose and another by a neck this year. Her best wins came in the Las Virgenes, Kentucky Oaks and Alabama Stakes. She was purchased for a measly $11k in 2008. Her rival, Havre de Grace, gets an honorable mention.

Older Horse: This division is another open and shut case in favor of Blame. He is the only horse to ever beat the legendary Zenyatta and he did so in the Breeders Cup Classic. I love his style of galloping horses down. He is a truly a throwback.

Older Female: Zenyatta gets this one for the third consecutive year. Relax ladies, she won’t be around to win it next year. You will get your chance.

Male Sprinter: This division is the first one with some room for debate. Even though I picked Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama to win that race, I do think others deserve consideration. My selection for this award is Majesticperfection. He won the head to head matchup with Big Drama and won twice as many races in total. He is one of the best sprinters I’ve seen in many years and its a damn shame he was injured and forced to retire. Smiling Tiger had a great year winning two Grade 1 races and missing a third by a nose.

Female Sprinter: This was a tough pick, but I went with Dubai Majesty over Franny Freud. The latter had her season ended by an injury after taking the Prioress. Dubai Majesty finished her year with a win in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint. That put her over the top.

Male Turf Horse: It was a pretty sorry year for this division. I’ll give the nod to Champ Pegasus on virtue of his runner up performance in the Breeders Cup Turf. Rosario was bold to put him on the lead as this horse closed from 19 back to win a race earlier this year. His best win came in the Clement L. Hirsch. Most will probably go with Gio Ponti here and he deserves a look after running behind Goldikova in the Breeders Cup Mile.

Female Turf Horse: This is an easy pick. Although Goldikova only raced once in North America she deserves the award. The filly looked like she had a rocket in her rear end as she vaulted past them all in the Breeders Cup Mile. It was one of the best efforts all year and by FAR the best from this division. The ill fated Tuscan Evening gets an honorable mention for going a perfect 6 for 6.

Horse of the Year: Please refer to this post.

Trainer: Todd Pletcher wins this one in a rout. He took the Kentucky Derby and won much more money than any other trainer. He also took more Grade 1 races and more graded races overall. Bob Baffert, John Sadler, John Sheriffs and Steve Asmussen deserve mentions. Among the lower tier trainers Jamie Ness and Joe Woodard both had great years. Pletcher is the reigning king though.

Jockey: Although he didn’t win as many graded races as some, Ramon Dominguez is very deserving of this award. He rides circles around most of the New York colony and won more money than any other jockey this year. Dominguez is a great tactician and extremely underrated.

Apprentice: I don’t have a very strong opinion here, but I’ll go with top money earner and wins leader Omar Moreno. The young rider’s life is finally looking up after living through a civil war as a child. Click here to read more.

Owner: Jerry and Ann Moss deserve this one for keeping Zenyatta around. They did what was good for the game and we owe them a debt that can never be repaid. This award would be a good start though.

Stallion: I don’t have an opinion in this category, but Malibu Moon and Distorted Humor were 1-2 in wins earnings.

So there you have it, my picks for the 2010 Eclipse Awards. Official results will be released on January 17, 2011. Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts. I’d love to discuss the topic  and hear what you think!

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My 2009 Eclipse Award Ballot; Rachel Alexandra HOY

January 7, 2010 By 6 Comments

The Eclipse Award nominees are finally out. The Eclipse Awards are the highest honor in thoroughbred racing. Winners are voted on by the people at the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Assocation), Daily Racing Form, and National Turf Writers Assocation. I wish that I could have a say, but that is not meant to be this year. Perhaps in the future I will get a chance. Here’s a look at who I would pick in each category. Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts!

Horse of the Year: Rachel Alexandra- This one is a no brainer for me. The three-year-old filly won 8 races and 5 Grade 1 events this year. She beats the boys 3 times, including in the Preakness where she became the first horse to ever win from the 13 post position. She left Summer Bird in her wake when she took the Haskell Invitational. The two times that she faced her gender in Grade 1 events this year she won by a combined 39 1/2 lengths. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro even beat older males when she took down the Woodward Stakes. Her campaign this year not only makes her Horse of the Year, but the greatest three-year-old filly in the history of the sport.

Two-Year-Old Male: Lookin’ At Lucky- This is an easy choice. “Lucky” is one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby and rightfully so. He couldn’t have won any easier last out in the CashCall Futurity where he beat fellow nominee Noble’s Promise. Vale of York can’t get my nod because I don’t believe in giving an Eclipse Award on the basis of a single race.

Two-Year-Old Female: She Be Wild- The Wayne Catalano filly got a perfect ride to slip up the rail and win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. She also ran a strong race to finish second in the Alcaibidies this year. Blind Luck and Hot Dixie are also nominated. I could easily envision both of those fillies being better when its all said and done, but at this point in time it has to go to She Be Wild. I feel like Hot Dixie Chick is the one to watch out of these three. I look forward to watching all of these fillies leading up to next years Kentucky Oaks.

Three-Year-Old Male: Summer Bird- This is an easy pick. The son of Birdstone took the Belmont Stakes, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup this year. He also bested Mine That Bird and Quality Road in head to head matchups. I feel like at this point in time Quality Road has surpassed him, but based on their 2009 resumes Summer Bird was clearly the better horse.

Three-Year-Old Filly: Rachel Alexandra- Do I really need to say more? Check out the Horse of the Year section above for more information on this filly.

Older Male: Gio Ponti- This is a highly competitive division although 2009 was a down year for the older horses. I’ll go with Gio Ponti on the virtue of 4 Grade 1 victories and a runner up performance when switching surfaces in the Breeders Cup Classic. Einstein put together a good year, but lost twice to Gio Ponti. I feel like if Einstein had won the Donn and Clark he could’ve got my vote. I’m excited to watch Gio Ponti compete in 2010.

Older Female: Zenyatta- Anyone who doesn’t vote for Zenyatta to be Champion Older Female deserves to have their voting priveleges revoked. While she was lightly raced and beat soft fields most of the year, she answered the bell in the Breeders Cup Classic. The five-year-old mare would be a serious threat for Horse of the Year in my mind if she had taken on tougher competition other than in the Classic and won outside of California.

Male Sprinter: Kodiak Kowboy- If you had asked me earlier in the year, I would’ve said Zensational was a shoo-in. However, he couldn’t get the job done in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Kodiak Kowboy skipped the race, but had wins in the Carter, Vosburgh, and Cigar Mile in 2009. He only finished off the board once in 2009. Retired now at the age of 5, this horse was extremely consistent throughout his career. It’s rare that you find a horse that can win at the top level at 2, 3, and 4.

Female Sprinter: Informed Decision- She had her doubters in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, but she dismissed Ventura en route to an impressive win. In my eyes, that race sealed the title for her. She won 6 of 7 races in 2009, including 3 Grade 1 races. She is a polytrack specialist, and I would never bet against her on that surface. Informed Decision was also tough on “real” dirt where she won the Humana Distaff, but her only loss came on the surface in the Ballerina Stakes. Her 2009 campaign will be hard to equal in 2010.

Male Turf Horse: Gio Ponti- I’d like to give the nod to Presious Passion, but Gio Ponti had the better year. He has nearly unbeatable on the grass this year.

Female Turf Horse: Ventura- While she couldn’t get it done on Breeders Cup day, this mare was very consistent in 2009. She won two Grade 1 races on the turf this year. Her best performance came in the Woodbine Mile. I’d love to give the nod to Goldikova or Midday, but one race doesn’t make a year.

Owner: Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Moss- You have to give this couple the award after they stepped up to the plate and entered Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic. Regardless of whether or not Zenyatta wins Horse of the Year, this took guts. I salute them for stepping up and helping the sport.

Breeder: I’m fairly ignorant to this category so I will refrain from commenting.

Trainer:  Bob Baffert- There is something to be said for a guy that finishes 3rd in earning behind a guy who has nearly 6 times as many starts as he does. Bob Baffert is the most prolific trainer in thoroughbred racing right now. Anything he touches turns to gold. He had a great 2009 thanks to Indian Blessing, Lookin at Lucky, Gabby’s Golden Goose, Pioneerof The Nile, and many more. I predict 2010 will be even better.

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez- This was one of the toughest picks I had to make. Ramon Dominguez, Garrett Gomez, and Julien Leparoux all had wonderful years. I had to go with Ramon Dominguez. He dominated with a massive 23.6% winning percentage and he finished in the money 56% of the time. He amassed earnings of 18,348,422 for 2009. He won the Spring/Fall riding title at Belmont Park, and also took the title at Saratoga. I congratulate him in an excellent 2009 campaign.

Apprentice Jockey: Christian Santiago-Reyes- I’m a big follower of California racing, and I love betting this guy. He has broke into the big time fast and he is here to stay. He is fearless in the irons and I expect to see him winning big time races very soon.

Who do you like to win an Eclipse Award? Leave a comment and lets discuss!

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