February 8, 2012

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Royal Currier set to take down Apriority in Sunshine Millions Sprint

January 27, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Apriority is favored to win the SSM Sprint

Apriority is favored to win the SSM Sprint

The Sunshine Millions Sprint (Gulfstream Park|Race 7|Saturday) is a very productive race. Last year’s winner, Amazombie, went on take the Breeders’ Cup Sprint. Other notable winners include Benny The Bull, Smokey Stover and Bordonaro. It should be noted that this year’s running is restricted to Florida-bred horses.

Royal Currier (Red Bullet x Top of the League by Lite The Fuse) rates a very strong chance in this six furlong sprint. He exits the $75k Valley Forge Stakes at Parx, where he raced four wide to easily dismiss two top horses in JJ’s Lucky Train and Poseidon’s Warrior. His figures are the best in the race and he’s working strongly. This gelding should break to the lead and take them as far as he can. I think he takes them all the way; he’s my top pick. Ramon Dominguez rides for Patricia Farro.

The main threat to my selection is the favorite, Apriority (Grand Slam x Midway Squall by Storm Bird). He produced a tremendous run to win the Grade 3 Mr Prospector last out over this course, despite a bad stumble at the start. He really loves this track and jockey Luis Saez fits him like a glove. The David Fawkes trained colt looks ready to run a big one. I’m going to hope he can’t get past Royal Currier in the stretch.

Cajun Breeze (Congrats x Cajun Dawn by Awesome Again) is an interesting option. He races third off the shelf here after breaking maiden last out over this course. It was a very easy win for the Michael Yates trained closer and the past performances say he was ridden out. There is value with him at 10-1. Juan Leyva will be in the irons.

I really like Royal Currier’s chances to win the Sunshine Millions Sprint at 6-1. You can bet him at TVG where new players get a $100 sign up bonus.

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Freak filly ready to make first start for Team Valor International

January 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Team Valor Internationl

Team Valor International

In 2011 Team Valor International privately purchased a three-year-old filly named Summer Soiree that would go on to win three graded stakes races, capped by the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks.

Table Three Ten could turn into the 2012 version of Summer Soiree for her Kentucky Derby winning connections. The daughter of El Prado won her debut going six furlongs at Fair Grounds by 5 ¼ lengths. She was geared down near the end. Team Valor quickly took notice and added her to their impressive roster. She’s put in three solid works for trainer Graham Motion since her big win. Now, she will take on first level optional claiming company at Gulfstream Park in race 6 on Friday. John Velazquez is listed to ride.

She looks to have her six foes over a barrel.

Her two best competitors are Polish Tune and Xunlei. The former is a first out maiden breaker for Todd Pletcher, hailing from from Calder Racecourse. The latter broke her maiden two back at Saratoga and has since finished third in an optional claiming race.

If Table Three Ten brings her maiden race she ought to thrash this group. I asked Graham Motion what he though on Twitter. Here is what he had to say. Admittedly, I didn’t get much from him.

GrahamMotion @GrahamMotion @gradedstakes will tell you more after Friday! She certainly was impressive first time out.

Bettors arent likely to get a very good price on Table Three Ten. If she were somehow to go off around 2-1, I’d consider it a slam dunk. Even money is more likely though. Regardless of whether or you have a bet down, she’s worth watching anyway. This could be the next big star in the three-year-old filly division.

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Strong field on tap for Sweetest Chant Stakes

January 21, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Dayatthespa

Dayatthespa

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!

The three-year-old turf filly division doesn’t get a lot of attention until later in the year, but it makes sense to start paying attention now. This is especially true when there is money to be made betting a strong race like the Sweetest Chant Stakes at Gulfstream which has attracted a competitive field of nine.

I’m pretty fond of Wholelottashakin (Scat Daddy x Carr Shaker by Crr de Naskra) in this spot. She was last seen in the Ginger Brew finishing sixth beaten two lengths. It was her first time going two turns and she had a very rough beginning. Despite that, she was closing best of all in the middle of the track in the late stages of the race. With a better break and a bit quicker pace, she could surprise bettors at 8-1. The Thomas Bush trained and Alex Solis ridden filly is my top choice here.

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Ann of the Dance (English Channel x Dans La Ville by Winning) is the other logical horse. The $3k yearling purchase is also exiting the Ginger Brew, where she finished third beaten ¾ of a length after a tough trip. Julien Leparoux picks up the mount on the turf  filly and that alone makes her very live at 3-1. Martin Wolfson is the trainer.

New York-bred Dayatthespa (City Zip x M’lady Doc by Doc’s Leader) will attract plenty of support. She was last seen finishing a tired ninth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Before that she relented late to be second in the Grade 3 Natalma at Woodbine. That has proved to be a productive race with third place finisher Stephanie’s Kitten returning to win the Alcibiades Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf.

The Sweetest Chant Stakes is the 10th race from Gulfstream on Sunday. You can bet my pick, Wholelottashakin (8-1), at TVG where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus.

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!

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Handle rises at Turfway and Gulfstream

April 5, 2011 By 1 Comment

While wagering has declined by 8.5% nationally, Turfway Park is experiencing unexpected growth. The Florence, KY track saw on track handle grow by 13.5% and simulcast handle rose by 18%. In total the all sources handle for this year was $95,013,790 up by 3.3% from the previous year.

This is great news for my local track. Sadly, they recently had to scrap the Kentucky Cup races, but if people continue to partake in wagering on races at Turfway they may come back.

Friday and Saturday night racing has been the driving factor behind this rise in handle. I can say from personal experience that the track is flooded with people on these nights. This means not only more concession sales and handle, but it raises public awareness about horse racing.

Turfway Park is popular with people of all ages on Friday and Saturday night. On Friday nights beer and hot dogs are only $1. It is little promotions like this that will help get people to the track. Once they are there they will inevitably bet on the races. Most people are working during the day so it only makes sense to move the races to when the mass majority of people are able to actively participate in betting horses.

Things are also going well at Gulfstream Park where they handled $33.6 million over the weekend shattering last years two day Florida Derby weekend handle of $19.7 million. This was likely the result of splitting up the races by gender and having two marquee days rather than a single one.

I played Gulfstream almost exclusively over the weekend and I salute them for putting together two excellent cards capped by an exciting Florida Derby. I only wish that Julien Leparoux had held on in the last race of the day on Sunday. It would have been a $9,000 score for me as I was cashing the Pick 5 to his horse. The Pick 5 is a great weager that I have only recently started playing. I look forward to hitting it very soon.

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Gulfstream Park Picks for 4/2/11

March 31, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I have had a love hate relationship with Gulfstream Park this meet. At times it has been good to me and at others it has been unbearable. I’m hoping to be saying that at the end of the day, in the words of Ice Cube, today was a good day. Let’s take a look at a few of the races. Check in later today for analysis of the Florida Derby.

The first race of interest on the card is the 6th race which is a 1 mile turf race for maiden fillies and mares three years old and upward. Christophe Clement’s daughter of Dynaformer, Alpha Centauri, is making her fourth career start. The $600k Keeneland November purchase has had tough trips, but still managed to run second by a neck in her debut and then second by half a length in her second start. She made her third start on March 2 and closed to be fifth by a length. That was her first race in a little over four months so expect a much sharper effort this time. Rajiv Maragh gets the call on the Overbrook Farm filly and I hope and expect her to come flying for the win.

I like Embur’s Song in the ninth race. She is eligible to improve in her second start of the year and I expect her to like the weeds. She did very well over synthetic tracks so that means she should have no problem with turf racing. The daughter of Unbridled’s Song looks like the only speed in the race. The 5-1 price is very enticing when you consider she was favored in each of her previous five starts. Look for her to record her third lifetime win here.

In the 10th race, the Rampart Stakes, I am going to take Persuading. Trained by Dale Romans and ridden by Javier Castellano, the filly is 1 for 1 at the distance will break from the rail with speed. She was last seen finishing second in the Grade 3 Honey Fox over the grass. Since then the daughter of Broken Vow has fired a five furlong bullet in 1:00 1/5 H. The move ranked 1st of 21.

Normally I might not pick this filly, but she should be on the lead and Gulfstream favors early speed. Not just that, but she is sharp and will get the distance. Under normal circumstances the chalk, Unrivaled Belle, would be more appealing. Last years Breeders Cup Ladies Classic winner should provide a sharp effort here, but I think Persuading is worth taking a chance on given a fat price.

The other appealing entry in the Rampart Stakes is Awesome Maria. The daughter of Maria’s Mon was last seen winning the Grade 3 Sabin over Amen Hallelujah after battling for the early lead. Will she take back or go for the front here? I see the lightly raced filly sitting behind my top selection and faltering in the stretch as the distance may be too much for her.

The Grade 2 Gulfstream Oaks will pit Davona Dale Stakes winner and Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies runner up R Heat Lightning against the upstart It’s Tricky. The latter is a perfect 3 for 3 and was last seen winning the Busher Stakes by eight lengths. I’m always skeptical of horses that dominate over the inner track at Aqueduct without proving themselves elsewhere, but this filly looks like something special. She has yet to be challenged and likes to race near the front which should work to her favor over this Gulfstream Park track. Despite that, I’m going to have to take the more experienced R Heat Lightning. I was always questioning her ability, but she really won me over with her last start. She dominated a strong field and did it against the track bias. She fired a 1/60 four furlong bullet in :47 3/5 B at Palm Meadows. I’m taking her here to win her second race in a row, although I am very wary of It’s Tricky.

Who do you like? Leave a comment and let me know.

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Dialed In A-Ok in second place

March 8, 2011 By 4 Comments

Dialed In finished second against older horses in an optional claiming race at Gulfstream Park on Sunday. The Nick Zito trainee sat behind a slow  pace under jockey Julien Leparoux and did not have enough juice to blast past the competition in his second start of the year and third start overall. The three-year-old colt’s stablemate, Equestrio, won the race after veering out badly near the wire.

I said on Twitter that this spot made no sense for the son of Mineshaft. Why try this race when taking on Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer or Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby was available? The colt will have to face them sooner or later if wearing the Roses is his goal.

In the end, this race does nothing to diminish my opinion of the Robert LaPenta owned colt. We have to remember it was only his THIRD race. Not only that, but he had every right to bounce off a big effort in the Holy Bull Stakes. The pace of the race was dawdling and Dialed In had never gone two turns before, let alone 9 furlongs. Winning an allowance in March means nothing when the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby loom large on the calender.

He is still a big and powerful colt that will get better with time. I was not a fan at 8-1 in the first Kentucky Derby future pool, but if everyone gets down on him as it appears they are I will jump all over him at a bigger number. This loss does not bother me at all.

What do you think?

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Gulfstream Park Picks

February 12, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I hadn’t planned on doing this post, but a friend asked me at the last minute to go the track tomorrow. I ended up handicapping the entire Gulfstream Park card and figured I might as well share. Here are a few of the plays I like. If you would like to know who I think will win in every race sign up for my mailing list by entering your email in the box to the right.

Race 2: This is a weird race. The favorite, Joey P, ran a huge race last out to win by head earning a BSF of 100. Can the 9 year old gelding run back to back big races? I don’t think so. That is why I landed on General Maximus (3-1). He is two for two at the distance and owns a win over the track.

Race 5: Batter Up (8-1) looks solid here. He finished third after a poor start first out. Trainer Chad Brown is 26% second time out and 30% on 61-180 days rest. I expect him to take to the turf like a duck to water.

Race 8:  In a race full of first time starters I almost always like to go with an experienced horse. That is the case here as I have landed on Backdown (7-2). He set the pace last out in a race which Brethren broke his maiden. Brethren is the favorite in the Sam Davis Stakes at Tampa Bay Downs today. If Backdown runs back to that race he should take tihs.

Late 50 cent Pick 4: 4,11,12/3,7,9/5,7,8/1,4,11


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2011 Donn Handicap Preview

February 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Good horse betting races have been sparse this year, but it looks like we have a great one lined up for Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the form of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. Last years edition of the 39 year old race was taken by Quality Road. The then four-year-old colt smashed the competition by over 10 lengths! Notable winners of the Donn include Forego, Foolish Pleasure, Pistols and Roses, Cigar, Skip Away, Medaglia d’Oro, Saint Liam and last but not least, Invasor. Let’s take a look at this years field!

#1 I Want Revenge – It seems like an eternity has passed since this son of Stephen Got Even crushed the field to take the Gotham Stakes and then overcome big time trouble to win the Wood Memorial. After taking the Wood he missed significant time due to injury. His next race came over a year later in the Suburban Handicap where he was third beaten four lengths by the front running Haynesfield. After that he was also third in the Iselin at Monmouth. Ramon Dominguez will ride for the first time. It should be interesting to see how much speed he shows. Ultimately, this is a tough field and he is entering off a long rest so that makes him an outsider. On his best day he is the best horse in this race though!

#2  Hear Ye Hear Ye – He hasn’t got a prayer of winning. Maybe he could run fourth by some fluke, but I doubt it.

#3 Morning Line – Zabeel Racing now co-owns this son of Tiznow with Thoroughbred Legends. The $700k auction purchase (separate from Zabeel) won the Pennsylvania Derby last year before running second by a head in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He was last seen finishing third in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hopes after setting the pace. He will be on the lead, but could catch pressure from Hear Ye Hear Ye, I Want Revenge, Square Eddie and Rule.  I don’t envision that being a problem. However, I do see the distance troubling him. Even though he won the Pennsylvania Derby at this distance, I just don’t think this horse is best when routing. He is a miler and will prove that in the final furlong of the race.

#4 Giant Oak – After watching the Clark Handicap, I had no idea how he ran so well. In retrospect, this is an improving horse. In his last four races he owns a win via DQ in the Clark and a second in two Grade 3 races. Still, I’m very skeptical about him. I’ve never thought he was very good and its hard to shake that thought once its planted. The pace set up will work in his favor as he will be rolling late. I won’t be surprised if the son of Giant’s Causeway checks in third or fourth.

#5 Eldaafer – The ice cold Edgar Prado picks up the mount on this gelded son of AP Indy who was last seen winning the Breeders Cup Marathon three months ago. He hasn’t seen a field this tough in his career despite winning a race that is Breeders Cup in name, but not in competition. Distance won’t be a problem, but when all is said and done this guy is probably the 6th or 7th best horse in the race. Long shot at best in my humble opinion.

#6 Fly Down – He just keeps on coming doesn’t he? The Nick Zito trainee finished third in the Breeders Cup Classic last out after just getting past fourth place finisher Lookin At Lucky. Before that race he was beaten 6 lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup by Haynesfield. He put in excellent efforts to be second by a nose in the Travers and second in the Belmont Stakes last year. He knows how to win races as he proved by taking the Dwyer by an emphatic six lengths.  Julien Leparoux will get the mount for the second time. He guided him to his third place finish in the Classic last out. Fly Down must concede at least 3 pounds to every horse in the race. He is working well, but it is advisable to take a shot against him in his first outing of the year.

#7 Square Eddie – WOW, what a run he put together in his first race since 2009 last out when he took an allowance event by 3 1/4 lengths. Study duty can wait a little longer. Trainer Doug O’Neill is excited about his chances as is jockey Corey Nakatani. I’ll take a wait and see approach. The surface he won on at Santa Anita is very hard to gauge right now. Also if he is so good why isn’t Joel Rosario here after winning on him last out? I could see Square Eddie running up the track or winning. Nothing he does will surprise me. Having said that I will pass and go with a more reliable horse.

#8 Rule - Todd Pletcher’s son of Roman Ruler rated nicely in his first try since the Florida Derby last out when jockey JJ Castellano guided him to a second place finish in the Hal’s Hope. He has excellent pedigree as his dam is half to Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. It will be interesting to see how close to the pace he is in this spot. He is working like a monster and it appears he hasn’t lost any of the talent he showed at the ages of two and three. I’d like to see him sit right behind the speed and pounce in his second try at 9 furlongs.

#9 Ron The Greek – Lezcano will get the call here on a horse who put together a nice runner up effort in optional claiming company last out. In that race he rallied from 14 lengths back to finish just 1 3/4 lengths behind stakes winning Our Dark Knight. If things get really hectic on the front end, which they could, Ron The Greek will be the prime beneficiary. The colt is classy enough to win this, but he will need help from the pace setters.

I’m going to make Rule my top selection to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. He showed a new dimension when he rallied from 5th last out and I think that will really work to his benefit here. I expect the jockey to lay right off the pace, go by Morning Line, and hold off the late charges from the closers. Other than Rule, I’m interested to see how I Want Revenge performs. I might take a flyer on him at a price, but he will probably need a race or two to get in gear. He might be able to find a spot in the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta. I’m really hoping he returns to top form.

Who do you like in the 39th renewal of the Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park? Leave a comment and let your voice be heard!

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Gulfstream Park Pick (Race 8)

January 19, 2011 By Leave a Comment

NOTE: Disregard all advice if race comes off turf.

I decided to take a look at Race 8 from Gulfstream Park on Thursday 1/20/11 for DRF handicapper Dan Illman’s contest. You can find the PP for the race by clicking here. Here is a brief synopsis of the horses I see having an impact on the race.

Black Scorpion (8-1) He is shipping to GP after an easy win at Calder. He isn’t as classy as other in the race, but I suspect Santiago will put him on the lead. This race is void of speed. If he can set easy fractions he may kick home at a big price. I definitely think he gets a piece.

Baltimore Bob (5-1) I’d love this son of Malibu Moon if there were more speedsters to set things up for him. He has a great rider in Julien Leparoux, but I don’t think he can close into slow fractions.

Rouge Victory (6-1) This son of Victory Gallop has improved tremendously. Less than a year ago he was racing for a tag of $32k. Since then he has won an optional claiming event at Saratoga and twice finished second in that type of race at Churchill Downs and Belmont Park. It will be important for JJ Castellano to put him in a close spot. His chance to win is as good as any others.

Sr Henry (6-1) The gelded son of Straight Man has fared well on this strip and will get a new rider in John Velazquez. Trainer Rick Dutrow wins with 28% of his starters second after the lay off.  He is working well and could be a threat in the lane if he doesn’t get too far back. He has had some tough trips of late so look for him to improve here at Gulfstream.

Bangalore Gold (5-2) I’m no fan of Alan Garcia, but this gelded son of Elusive City will be my top pick anyway. In his two races in the US he had 2010 Eclipse Award winner Ramon Dominguez in the irons. He got away slow in both of those starts. An alert break will be crucial for him today. He has finished behind two stakes horses in Skipadate and Sal The Barber so he finds class relief here. The Christophe Clement trainee needs an good start and just like the other competitors he needs to be closer to the pace. If he does those two things I think he will win for fun.

Below are a couple of the plays I like.

Win bet on 9

Exacta: 9/1,5,6

Trifecta: 9/1,6/1,5,6

Thanks for reading and best of luck betting the horse races at Gulfstream Park!

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Tuscan Evening makes it look easy in the Monrovia Handicap; Gulfstream Park opens

January 4, 2010 By Leave a Comment

I felt like Tuscan Evening had a chance in the Monrovia Handicap, but I went to another horse for better value. I guess I shoud’ve remembered the age old saying; take what you can get. This mare was an easy winner under jockey Rafeale Bejarano for trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. She is using this race as a springboard for the Grade 1 Santa Monica Handicap on January 31. If she runs like she did in the Monrovia then she will have a huge shot. Evita Argentina is also aiming for the race after winning the Grade 1 La Brea last out. I’d have a hard time betting against Evita Argentina going 7 furlongs.

Sunday saw the opening of Gulfstream Park and the debut of a Kentucky Derby contender. Tahitian Warrior went wire to wire under jockey E T Baird. He finished the six furlongs in 1:09.96 while finishing the last furlong in under 12 seconds. Tahitian Warrior was clear by 4 3/4 lengths at the wire. He didn’t look like he was trying very hard. He beat a strong field that included 2 horses purchased for $500k or more. I’d definitely add this horse to my list of early contenders for the First Saturday in May.

That wasn’t the only news out of Gulfstream Park. Florida Derby winner Quality Road returned to the scene of the crime for the Hal’s Hope Handicap. He couldn’t have won any easier than he did. I’m going to go out on a limb and say he is the best older horse in training. The only horse I can see giving him trouble is Rail Trip, and we have no idea how he would handle a dirt surface. Quality Road had no trouble at the gate this time and will be pointing towards the Donn Handicap. If he is successful there I envision him heading to Dubai for the Dubai World Cup. I love this horse and I hope he gets it done every time out this year.

Any thoughts on this weekends racing? Anything on your mind in general? Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts.

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