Handicapping Kentucky Derby prep races is one of the greatest and most rewarding challenges in horse racing. Dechipering a field of top sophomore contenders isn’t easy and can differ from other types of races. Let’s take a look at some key points on how to handicap Kentucky Derby preparatory races.

#1 Intent: The connections of a horse usually wont let you know beforehand how they intend for their animal to benefit from the race. However, they all have the same goal and that is to peak in the Kentucky Derby; not before it. Keep that in mind when looking at some of the late season preps such as the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and other races. The best horse isn’t always going to win these races. Sometimes the best horse is going to do just enough to get something worthwhile from the effort while a colt or gelding that was on tilt wins the race in order to get the necessary earnings for the Run for the Roses.

An excellent example of this is the 2006 Blue Grass Stakes. Dominican was the winner, but nobody will tell you that he was a better horse than Street Sense, the eventual Kentucky Derby champ. Dominican was better that day because the connection threw everything they had at the race while trainer Carl Nafzger didn’t have Street Sense cranked up all the way. After all, why would he want to leave his Churchill Downs effort at Keeneland? Knowing this can help you crush a short priced favorite, but keep in mind that even when a horse isn’t intended to be 100%, he could still be too much for the opposition.

#2 “Horses are like strawberries, they go bad overnight.“: The preceding quote came from one of the greatest horseman in the history of thoroughbred horse racing; Charlie Whittingham. A winner of 252 stakes races, Whittingham trained greats like Ack Ack, Ferndinand and Sunday Silence. He won races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Arlington Million, Santa Anita Handicap (eight times), Hollywood Gold Cup (eight times) and even the Japan Cup, a race in which is his the last American trainer to have done so (1991). In short, the man knew his way around a racehorse.

Whittingham’s words are something for not only horsemen, but handicappers to keep in mind. The inverse is also true; horses can get very, very good in a short amount of time during this part of their career. An excellent example of this came in the 2009 Arkansas Derby. Old Fashioned, winner of the Remsen Stakes at two, was sent off as a prohibitive favorite despite losing in the Rebel Stakes last out. He led down the lane, but in the end he succumbed to a stretch duel with eventual winner Papa Clem. Trainer Gary Stute remarked after the race that he thought Old Fashioned was beatable after watching him lose for the first time in the Rebel Stakes. Stute was correct and his charge blossomed at the right time. Before that race Papa Clem was beaten just over seven lengths while second in the Louisiana Derby. This is just one of many examples of one horse peaking and another improving at the ideal time.

#3 Pedigree: This is the time of the year when the races start to get much longer. The Kentucky Derby is farther than most horses will ever race at 10 furlongs and its main prep races are usually nine furlongs. It makes sense to have a horse perfectly fit to go these long distances. However sometimes, fitness wont do the trick. Pedigree can really hold some horses back and regardless of how fit they are, some contenders just have distance limitations.

Pedigree came into play in 2010 for Bob Baffert’s Conveyance. The super speedy son of Indian Charlie was good enough to win the San Rafael Stakes and Southwest Stakes going eight furlongs, but gave in during the final panel of the nine furlong Sunland Derby where he was the 3-5 favorite. He would fade again next out in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 15th.

Another great example of pedigree limiting a horse on the Kentucky trail is Noble’s Promise. The son of champion sprinter Cuvee won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland as a juvenile and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. As a sophomore he did well to be second in the Rebel Stakes, but when he was entered in the nine furlong Arkansas Derby he could only manage a fifth place finish. Then, in the Kentucky Derby, he had the lead turning for home only to fade to fifth again. If the race had been shorter he probably would have worn the Roses.

Distance isn’t the only reason to consider pedigree. In the era of synthetic tracks, three of the main prep races for the Kentucky Derby are contested on Polytrack. Those races are the Spiral Stakes from Turfway Park, Bluegrass Stakes from Keeneland and the Lexington Stakes, also from Keeneland. It is important to remember that turf horses can do very well in these spots. You have to toss out their bad dirt races and focus primarily on their turf and or other synthetic track performances.

In 2011, Santiva went to post as the favorite in the Bluegrass Stakes. While he had good synthetic form and had performed well at Keeneland in the past, bettors made him a huge underlay at 2-1. The eventual winner, Brilliant Speed, was 19-1 despite finishing on the board in two turf stakes races at Gulfstream before that race. Brilliant Speed is by Dynaformer, one of the best turf sires in America. Twinspired, a close second, had just finished third in the Spiral Stakes and broke his maiden over the surface. His sire, Harlan’s Holiday, isn’t really a turf influence, but his broodmare sire, El Prado, threw great turf runners left and right.

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