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Too Good To Be True

January 24, 2008 By Leave a Comment

*This a post from when my blog was located at http://www.blogger.com/. The events described occurred sometime around May.*

I woke up Sunday morning and went through my usual motions. I went for a quick jog, took a shower, and then I ate some breakfast. After finishing this morning ritual I decided to head over to my local track (River Downs). It was a beautiful day which I spent in the grand stand handicapping races.

I was doing great. I had doubled my money by the time the feature race came around. I decided to try and make it an even better day. In this race was a horse called Free Thinking. He had raced earlier this year in the Shoemaker Breeder’s Cup Mile, and the Breeder’s Cup Mile. Also in the race was an older gelding that had raced in the Grade 1 United Nations the previous year, along with the Del Mar Handicap. To top it all off the winner of the Gendelman Handicap, a local stakes race was competing. Quite a deep field for a $12,000 allowance race if I do say so myself.

Free Thinking was coming out of a Grade 2 in which he was last by 14 lengths. Despite this he was still even money. I thought to myself “wow, this sounds like an easy way to double up”. Man was I wrong. I’m not the kind of person who will bet even money but this looked like a sure thing, which in my idiocy I forgot doesn’t exist.

As the race went off Free Thinking sat in second and seemed to be under hand. He made a move to the lead and absolutely quit. Dean Sarvis was beating the hell out of him too, or I would’ve thought something was up. Free Thinking was lesson learned the hard way. If it seems too good to be sure, then it probably is.

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Handicapping Help

January 11, 2008 By Leave a Comment

We could all use some work on our game, me included. That being said I’d like to tell you a few of the things I look at when handicapping a race. Maybe you can learn a thing or two!

#1 First Time Lasix- This can be a big factor on how a horse runs. Lasix is a drug which prevents horses from bleeding through their nose during a race. They bleed due to the fact that thoroughbreds have been inbred too much through the years. Lasix can be a huge performance booster on a horse who bleeds.

#2 Blinkers On/Off- Blinkers are used on horses to improve early speed and to keep his mind on the task at hand. Some horses are easily distracted by the crowd, and this is used to remedy that problem. If a horse showed speed without blinkers then I will usually give him extra consideration because he should go straight to the front.

#3 Lone Speed- You must always, always and I mean always evaluate a race for pace. Pace makes the race and if there is only one speed horse he may be able to “steal” the race on the front end. I would much rather bet a horse who is lone speed at say 10-1 then a favorite at 2-1 who will come from the clouds.

#4 second out from a layoff- Horses who are laid up have time to rest and grow and become faster and better in most cases. I would be wary of a horse first out from a layoff if he hasn’t proved he can run back to form after time off. You are better off betting him next time out. Horses tend to run much better second out from a layoff then first.

#5 Horse for course- Never underestimate a horse who runs well at a certain track but not so good at others. Lava Man for instance can’t race a lick out of California but when his connections take him to Hollywood or Santa Anita he is the king. Another example is Mach Ride. While he isn’t horrible elsewhere he runs his best at Calder Racecourse.

That’s it for now, but don’t fret I’ve got plenty more to share with you. Continue to check back and I will post some helpful tips and tricks for you to take advantage of. Drop me a line clicking the number in the top right corner of this post.

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