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Cigar Mile up for grabs

November 24, 2011 By Leave a Comment

To Honor And Serve

The Grade I Cigar Mile, formerly known as the NYRA Mile, is named in honor of the great Cigar. The warhorse beat Suburban Handicap winner Devil His Due in this race on his way to a then record of 16 consecutive wins. He would be proud of the group of eight gathered to try and take the race in 2011. Any of them could win.

Calibrachoa: This guy was claimed by Mike Repole and Todd Pletcher for $40k and he’s been on a tear ever since. In his time with the new connections he has won four stakes races, including a last out victory in the Bold Ruler Handicap. The son of Southern Image loves the track and he’s got plenty of tactical foot to sit right behind the pacesetters here. This is a very, very deadly colt. Cornelio Velasquez picks up the mount.

Caixa Eletronica: Repole and Pletcher also claimed this one, but his tag was a bit higher at $62.5k. He has repaid them with a win in the Westchester Handicap, third place finish in the Metropolitan Mile and two starter handicap victories. Last out he finished third behind his stabelmate, Calibrachoa. The distance there was seven furlongs and he ought to appreciate going a little bit further this time. John Velazquez will ride.

Pretty Boy Freud: He pulled a huge upset at odds of 50-1 four races back against allowance horses at Saratoga. He won a NY-bred race by just over six lengths after that was a hard charging second under similar conditions last out. The winner of that last race, Inherit The Gold, is a lesser known, but very good runner. The son of Freud is not without a chance here, but he’s going to need a little luck. Irad Ortiz gets the call to ride.

Bet at Twinspires!

Haynesfield: The Steve Asmussen trainee is back to make amends after being second by a head in this race a year ago. His 2011 campaign has been spotty due to foot problems, but he did impress with a last out victory in the Empire Classic in which he turned back the challenge of Green Monster. The son of Speightstown proved last year with a win in the Jockey Club Gold Cup that he can hang with anyone. If he’s still the same horse that won that race last year, he might smash this bunch.Ramon Dominguez will be in the irons.

Hymn Book: Shug McGaughey is one of the best trainers in America and his horses can sometimes fly under the radar. Hymn Book didn’t do that when he was bet the 35 cents on the dollar favorite in a last out win in the over night Firethorn Stakes, but he might get overlooked this time. He’s a winner going this distance on the grass, but hasn’t tried it on the dirt yet. He did break his maiden and win the aforementioned Firethorn going only a half furlong further though. This distance has got to be right in his wheelhouse. Look for Alan Garcia to take up a spot right behind the pace and hope his charge is good enough. He very well could be.

To Honor And Serve: Tried the Breeders’ Cup Classic last out where he faded to finishing seventh after making a bid at the top of the lane. Before that he won the Pennsylvania Derby. I’ve never been wild about the Bill Mott trainee and I really don’t care for him. He’s going to be a solid favorite and there are a lot good horses to try and beat him with as he makes his second try against older horses. It is worth noting that he won the Nashua and Remsen here as a juvenile. Jose Lezcano retains the mount.

Sangaree: Jockey Rajiv Maragh seems to think he is coming into his best race and that could be fact. He was a very good second to Calibrachoa last out in his first race in over two months. He’s fired a good five furlong move since then and he gets an extra furlong to work with in this spot. Maragh will have him in an excellent spot early on just behind the dueling leaders. Look for him to kick strongly in the lane.

This a race in which all of the entries have a legit chance to win. I’m going to make Haynesfield my top choice. I expect him to be much sharper in his second try after a long rest. Turning back to a mile will do wonders for him too. After him the entry of Calibrachoa and Caixa Eletronica along with Sangree are also worthy of the utmost respect.

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Met Mile means big stud money for winner

May 29, 2011 By 2 Comments

The Metropolitan Handicap is a fixture of the racing scene dating back to the 1890’s. This one-turn one mile race is known as the “stallion” maker, as its Grade 1 status and one-turn mile distance are major plusses to American breeders.  This year’s group of 11 runners has four horses that can put that major stamp on their future stallion status.  Seven others (including one gelding) will try to prevent that from happening while notching a major win. Let’s break down this field, based on what it would mean to their stallion status.

The last thing missing from their resume:

Aikenite has come back in 2011 with a vengeance as he won two graded events at seven furlongs. He is the co-high weight at 120 lbs, but he looks vulnerable as this is his 3rd race in 6 weeks, including a ship from Kentucky after his last race. He is the 3rd choice on the morning line at 9/2, but he will probably go off lower than that. Haynesfield has several graded stakes wins (including a G1 in the JCGC), but this win would be the coup de grace for this New York bred.  He loves Belmont, with a 7-5-1-0 record. However, his only off the board finish was his last race in his 2011 debut.  He’ll carry 119 lbs. for the race, and he looks to bounce back. He is the morning line favorite at 7/2, but he will probably go off at around 3-1. Kensei hasn’t returned to his three year old form, when he won both the Grade 2 Dwyer and Jim Dandy Stakes.  He has struggled at this top tier of racing, including getting obliterated in this race last year by 12 ¾ lengths. The one turn mile distance is a good one, but he looks to be up against it this time.

Needs this win to be more than a regional sire:

Soaring Empire won the G3 Hal’s Hope to start his 2011 season, and has been working strong since his last race in March. However, he struggled in his only other Grade 1 forays, and was beat twice by fellow entrant Tackleberry after beating him in the Hal’s Hope. His odds always feel to be depressed versus his actual chances, so he may once again be an underlay. Caixa Electronica won first off the claim for Todd Pletcher last out in the Grade 3 Westchester. He has had only one solid work since, but can he keep it going? Tizway won the Grade 2 Kelso last year, then went off as the second choice in the BC Dirt Mile last year, where he finished 5th.  He finished 3rd last year in this race, and he cuts back off a third in the Charles Town Classic. He loves Belmont almost as much as Haynesfield, with a 5-2-1-2 lifetime record here.  He’s worked well since the race, is in the lightest of the main contenders (116 lbs.) and his outside post should let him get a good stalking position.

Career-Making win:

Stormy’s Majesty takes a big step up from his NY-bred stakes win last out, and is probably in too deep. Rodman steps up off a $60k stakes win last out, and he does run well fresh, but he’s never been this high up the ladder. He’s never been out of the exacta at the distance, and he could be the bomb in the exotics. Yawanna Twist has been a professional check-earner in his career, with his only off-the-board finish being his 4th in the Preakness. However, he has never won a stake of any kind in his career. Maybe he sort of grinds his way to an on the board finish? Ibboyee has won NY-bred stakes and placed in open states, but maybe this is beyond his optimum distance.

That leaves Tackleberry, who is the only gelding in the field. He is the major speed in the race, and was strong over the winter. He throws on lasix after bleeding last out while finishing fourth in the Charles Town Classic.

So there’s the field for the Met Mile. Can someone assure themselves a high stud fee in Kentucky? Or get that win to make sure they end up in Kentucky at all? No matter what, it figures to be a good race.

Our top pick is Tizway. Click here to find out why. Also, consider betting with Twin Spires this Memorial Day weekend. They offer an excellent $100 sign up bonus. Wagering online is the way to go and the preferred method of this site.

 

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Met Mile Handicap preview and pick

May 27, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Ryan Patterson takes a look at the Metropolitan Mile. His top pick is Tizway. Watch the video to find out more!

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Older horse division up for grabs entering 2011

January 4, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The older male division looks VERY thin in the early stages of 2011. This seems to be a recurring problem in the past few years. Last year we had Blame and Quality Road, but there were really no elite horses in the division outside of those two. The year before that really had no elite older horses. Gio Ponti was the best of the bunch, but he wasn’t what I would call an elite runner.

I am left wondering who will rise to the top of this division. Will it be Gio Ponti? I’m glad that he is still in training, but his dirt form is less than desirable. I’d be shocked if his connections didn’t keep him on the turf anyway.

The new leader of the older horse division is likely to be a four-year-old. Some of the leading candidates are Morning Line, First Dude, Rule, Apart and Fly Down. Let’s take a quick look at each horses resume.

Morning Line won the Pennsylvania Derby in just his sixth career start. He followed that effort up by finishing second in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. The son of Tiznow is out of an AP Indy mare. It looks like he improving with age just as his sire did. Nick Zito trains this colt. He is in great hands with the two time Kentucky Derby and Belmont Stakes winner. The chances of Morning Line rising to the top are as good as that of any other horse. He clearly has tons of talent and getting the classic distance will be no problem when the time comes around. Look for him to start his 2011 campaign in the Hal’s Hope at Gulfstream.

I’d like to see First Dude get an easy win in minor stakes company, but trainer Dale Romans will start his year out in the Sunshine Millions Classic. The purse is big and he very well may be the best horse when the entries are revealed. Kent Desormeaux worked the son of Stephen Got Even over the turf at Gulfstream yesterday. Romans said he wants to get him on the grass at some point this year. I have always thought the world of First Dude. He is a towering colt and he loves to go to the lead. Maybe he will get a win or two and improve even more. I expect him to race in the Breeders Cup Classic again this year.

Much was said about Rule after winning the Delta Jackpot in 2009. He ended up off the Kentucky Derby trail after running third in the Florida Derby. That was an odd race as he seemed home free only to be reeled in by Ice Box and Pleasant Prince. The son of Roman Ruler hasn’t raced since that effort. He is back in training and if he improves he could be one of the best of the older horses.

Winning the Super Derby was the highlight of Apart‘s 2010 campaign. The Al Stall trainee entered the Clark Handicap as a wise guy pick, but couldn’t deliver. He steadily improved throughout last year. A similar rout could be beneficial this year. Stall did a great job to have Blame peaking in the Breeders Cup Classic. Maybe he can guide this colt to the top as well.

Fly Down probably should have won the Belmont Stakes, but a bad trip meant he could only finish second. He also had back luck in the Travers where he was second by a nose. In the Breeders Cup Classic he finished up to be third behind Blame and Zenyatta. The newly turned four-year-old has lots of upside and potential. His closing style could cost him a win or two this year, but I expect to see him do well. I believe he has the most raw talent of any of the older horses. It’s up to Nick Zito to mold him into the top older horse of 2011.

The only horses above the age of four that I can picture having an impact on the older horse division are Successful Dan and Haynesfield. The latter has steadily improved into a Grade 1 horse and appears to be on top of his game entering the new racing year. Successful Dan has perhaps the best closing move of any of the older horses. The gelded son of Successful Appeal has only raced 8 times and has plenty of room for improvement. He won the Clark Handicap last out, but was DQ’ed for bumping another horse. He took that race over a strong field despite being rank much of the way. Haynesfield and Successful Dan are clearly the best of the horses above the age of 4.

My prediction is that First Dude will be the best older horse in the land this year. After him I like Successful Dan and Morning Line. Who do you like among the older horses? Did I leave someone out? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

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2010 Breeders Cup Classic Preview

October 21, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Some call it the biggest race in the world, or perhaps the most important. The winner is more often than not named Horse of the Year. The race is the Breeders Cup Classic, and the stakes are clearly high. I covered the race extensively for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association last year. My top pick, Quality Road, was scratched at the gate. It feels like just yesterday this race ran, but much has happened since then. Let’s examine the race!

The $5,000,000 event returns to Churchill Downs and natural dirt this year. Defending champion Zenyatta will be a definitive favorite. The undefeated mare is 19 for 19 on her career with wins in the Santa Margarita, Apple Blossom, Vanity, Clement L. Hirsch, and Lady’s Secret this year. It’s clear that she hasn’t defeated much outside of the mare St.

Trinians this year, but the same could have been said in 2009. Trainer John Sheriffs says she is as good or  better now than when she won in 2009. Jockey Mike Smith feels the same way.

Zenyatta’s closing kick is among the best in the history of thoroughbred racing, and you can bank on her mowing horses down in the stretch. She isn’t a lock though. This will be the best field she has ever faced by far. This will also be her first time running over the track. Weather can always be a factor too. Zenyatta has never competed on a wet track.

In my eyes, she will have to out kick Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky, and Foster Handicap winner  Blame. That won’t be done easily. Obviously, her chances are big, but just like in 2009, I’m not willing to concede this thing to her. That doesn’t mean I’m foolish enough to leave her off my tickets though! I’ve always been a bit of a doubter about Zenyatta, but if she can win this race I’ll finally agree that she is one of the best to ever step on the track.

The second choice in this race will be Al Stall and Claiborne Farm’s Blame. The son of Arch is a wonderful animal. I remember having dinner after  a day at Keeneland earlier this year where I chatted with his exercise rider. He said he would be Horse of the Year before Blame had even ran a race. If he is able to win this race then the exercise rider will be right.

Blame is ridden by Garrett Gomez. The journeyman jockey has ice in his veins and will make sure this guy gets an excellent ride. Blame’s closing style should do him well here. He has proved in the past he can make up ground if the pace is slow. That shouldn’t be the case here.  He’s a bit of a grinder. It looked as if he was dead in the water late in the Whitney against Quality Road, but he was able to dig deep and get past him.

Despite all the great things he has done this year, Blame lost his last race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when Haynesfield wired the field. That doesn’t bother me at all. I don’t want my horse peaking in his prep race. I believe Blame is ready to run the race of his life at Churchill Downs on November 6. That doesn’t mean he will be my top pick though. I’m going to wait for the PPs and watch the news closely before I make that  decision. However, he is definitely on the short list!

The third choice in the Breeders Cup Classic betting will be Preakness Stakes, and Haskell Invitational winner Lookin At Lucky. The three-year-old is one of the most tenacious animals alive. He just keeps on coming no matter what the circumstances are. He may not win, but Lucky is going to run his heart out trying. You can bank on that. The Martin Garcia piloted son of Smart Strike has one thing going for him that no one else does. That is Bob Baffert.

The silver haired Hall of Fame member is the best trainer in the world. To you that may be an opinion, but to me it is a fact. I’ll take Bob Baffert with a talented colt over just about anyone else in most cases. His charge can get the distance and he loves the surface. He’s also quick enough to get to the leaders before Zenyatta or Blame. If he strikes the lead, will be passed?  To the best of my knowledge, Lookin At Lucky has never been passed after  he has struck the lead. That may not matter, because many things that have never happened before happen all the time. Especially in the Breeders Cup!

My top pick from 2009, Quality Road, never got to strut his stuff as he was scratched at the gate. I probably won’t go with him again this year. I just don’t believe the son of Elusive Quality can go the 10 furlongs distance.  He is extremely classy, and if this race were a little shorter he would be very, very, tough. Who can forget his win in the Metropolitan Mile this year? It’s not out of the question for him to get a piece, but to me he likely isn’t a win candidate this time around.

Other candidates for the Breeders Cup Classic are First Dude, Fly Down, Espoir City, Haynesfield, Paddy O’ Prado, Musket Man, Crown of Thorns, Gitano Hernando, and Morning Line. The chances of a horse other than Zenyatta, Blame, Lookin at Lucky, or Quality Road winning the Classic are minute, but anything can happen as Wild Again proved in the first running of the race at huge odds.

Who do you like in the Breeders Cup Classic?

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Haynesfield upsets in Jockey Club Gold Cup to top exciting weekend!

October 3, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Well, I knew he was lone speed, but I didn’t think Haynesfield was classy enough to take them all the way in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. How wrong I was! The son of Speightstown proved his pedigree wrong and got stronger as the race got longer to register his first Grade 1 victory. Blame, the 3-5 favorite, finished well back in second. Travers runner up Fly Down was third.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is considering the Breeders Cup Classic for Haynesfield. Unless he freaks in that race he has almost no chance at all to win.  I’ve always liked the horse, but he is a cut below the best in the nation. His freakish performance was the result of a lack of pace and a short field. I’d like to see him in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. It is likely he would be in with a big shot to win that race.

I’m glad that Blame lost. He’s been my Breeders Cup Classic horse for a long time. All that his loss in the Jockey Club will do is ripen his price for the Classic. I’m every bit as confident in him as I was before he ran second. The son of Arch will be peaking in November and charging late with an enormous shot to win the $5 million race.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup wasn’t the only big race this weekend.

The Cotillion saw Havre de Grace finally get the better of Blind Luck, although narrowly. The rivalry between the three-year-old fillies is shaping up as the best in the nation. It is likely both will make their next start in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic. They will meet Life At Ten there. She won the Beldame on Saturday against a decent, but small field. The Ladies Classic looks to be one of the best betting races of the Breeders Cup.

Giralamo got the best of Riley Tucker to beat what was a very weak group in the Vosburgh. It’s always tough to say this far in advance, but I have a hard time seeing him run big in the Breeders Cup Sprint. I could be wrong, because just as the Vosburgh was a weak group, so could be the Sprint. Anything can happen. He’s a nice horse, but I just wonder why he didn’t beat Riley Tucker by more. I’ve never thought much of Riley Tucker.

In your mind, what was the highlight of the racing this weekend? Are you excited for the Breeders Cup? Leave a comment and discuss!

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Regal Ransom & I Want Revenge top Suburban Handicap

July 1, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Click here for information on how to get my picks for this race.

The Grade 2 Suburban Handicap contested over 9 furlongs on the dirt for three-year-olds and upward has quite a strong field for its 2010 edition. 2009 Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge is back for his first start since scratching as the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby on the day of the race. Regal Ransom, winner of the Grade 2 Super Derby, is back for his first start since setting the pace and fading in the Breeders Cup Classic back in November. It could be another and perhaps sharper horse that wins the Suburban Handicap though.

Haynesfield scored his third consecutive win and seventh win from ten career starts last out in his 2010 debut. The son of Speightstown has excellent tactical speed. He went wire to wire in his last score against allowance optional claiming company, but when he won the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap before that he sat in second most of the way before taking over in the stretch.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Haynesfield is his ability to go a route of ground. He is two for two at the Suburban Handicap distance of 9 furlongs. Speightstown’s progeny are typically sprinters. Steve Asmussen and Ramon Dominguez are two of the best in racing at what they do. The top two in this race would be well advised not to ignore the New York bred Haynesfield. He holds a strong hand.

Racing for the first time since November won’t be a problem for Regal Ransom. He won first out going seven furlongs at Saratoga as a two-year-old. When he won the Super Derby he was racing for the first time in over four months. Not only has Regal Ransom shown the ability to run on rest in the past, but he is working up a storm. His last work was a :58 4/5 B five furlong move that was the second fastest from 23 works. Prior to that he worked six furlongs in 1:11 B and five furlongs in :58 2/5 B.

If the son of Distorted Humor is able to get loose on the lead he may gallop home. Don’t expect Ramon Dominguez and Haynesfield to let that happen though. Rick Dturow has entered the claimer Pictural to run on the lead with Regal Ransom as a rabbit. Regal Ransom may be classy enough to win even with a pressured pace. Alan Garcia rides for Bin Suror Saeed.

The fact that Joe Talamo saw fit to hop on a plane and pick up the mount on I Want Revenge is very encouraging. It may be that he is attached to the horse, but it may also be that I Want Revenge is ready to run a big race. Perhaps he is coming out of loyalty to IEAH. Regardless of why, I like that he will be here to pilot “his” colt. The son of Stephen Got Even is a perfect one for one at the distance of nine furlongs with his only race being a win with a troubled trip in the Wood Memorial.

I Want Revenge has more than enough speed to be forwardly placed, but he proved in the Wood that he also has the ability to close with a rush if that is needed. I expect Joe Talamo to take sit behind horses and make a move entering the stretch.  If I Want Revenge is ready to go he will be tough to hold off in the lane. Regardless of his performance in this race, if I Want Revenge can return to his 2009 form he will be a player in the older horse division.

Other contenders include Eldafeer and Convocation. The latter was last seen finishing fourth behind Quality Road in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile Handicap. I’m not sure he wants to go this far. Eldafeer was third with a wide trip last out in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. The gelded son of AP Indy could be an exotics factor, but I have a hard time believing he can win this race. Pictural and Unbridled Danger round out the field.

Who do you like? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

Click here for information on how to get my picks for this race.

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