May 21, 2012

2012 Kentucky Derby Picks

2012 Kentucky Derby Picks

Kentucky Derby Picks

Check out our comprehensive Kentucky Derby Betting Guide. It includes everything below and much, much more.

The Kentucky Derby is Saturday and we have finally finished our intensive preparations for this incredible betting race. This year, more than any other year in the past, we are supremely confident in our selections. One of our best plays on the card is rated at 30-1 on the morning line. Buy our Kentucky Derby picks below to find out who it is!

On the card of 13 races we have 6 rock solid win plays. We intend to cash some of the biggest exotic wagers in the history this site; and we cashed for $44k on a superfecta last year. You do not want to bet the Kentucky Derby without us on your side.

Kentucky Oaks & Derby Picks ($14.99)

  • This package includes our top selection to WIN in every Churchill Downs race on Friday and Saturday.
  • Exacta, Trifecta, Superfecta plays
  • Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4 plays
  • Pick 6 play
Kentucky Derby Guide/Picks

Keeneland Picks 10/6/11 (Phoenix & Alcibiades Stakes)

Opening day for Keeneland arrives tomorrow and I couldn’t be happier. While I will only be there in spirit on Friday, I plan to spend my entire Saturday and Sunday at the most beautiful track on Earth. Saturday will be fairly casual for me and I’d be glad to meet up with any fellow racing fans. Just leave a comment on this post or contact me via Twitter and we can work something out! In the mean time, let’s handicap some races.

Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes

The last handful of stakes races have been a chalk fest and I don’t think it will end in this six furlong sprint race. Flashpoint (8-5) has excelled training over the track all year long and will make his inaugural race upon it. If he is as good as we think he is they will be eating his dust. The fleet footed sophomore is trained by Wes Ward and Cornelio Velasquez will retain the mount. The winner of this race earns an automatic berth to the Breeders Cup Sprint.

Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes

This is a very tough race and for that reason I’m taking the proven commodity, Tu Endie Wei (6-1). The Brereton Jones homebred is half to graded stakes star Biofuel and she broke her maiden at first asking from the 13 hole at Woodbine going five furlongs in a stakes race. Yes, you read that correctly. The lass followed that win up with a sharp effort to take the Ontario Debutante. Today is the acid test and I think she passes with flying colors. Others I considered are Sweet Cat (6-1), Venetian Sonata (20-1), and And Why Not (5-1).

Be sure to check out our Twitter feed as I’ll be updating with plenty of Keeneland picks and news.

Super Saturday Breeders Cup Preview from Belmont Park

Be sure to tune into our Facebook and Twitter pages for live thoughts before and after the races

The days are rolling off the calender and the 2011 Breeders Cup is rapidly approaching. Before that we have Super Saturday at Belmont Park which provides an excellent preview of the coming championship day. Often these big days leading into the Breeders Cup can disappoint, but the fields for this year’s edition of the Flower Bowl, Kelso, Vosburgh and Jockey Club Gold Cup have me salivating. Let’s take a look.

Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational

We aren’t likely to see a surprise in this one. If the favored Stacelita runs her race there is little to no chance she loses. The French bred mare won the Beverley D last out in her first try for trainer Chad Brown. The 2009 French Oaks winner just appears too good to lose this one.

Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational

I’m the first person to try and beat a favorite, but Cape Blanco appears to have this group over a barrel. The Irish bred son of Galileo won the Arlington Million last out and before that the Man O’ War over this Belmont turf course. Last year’s winner, Winchester, and this year’s Manhattan winner, Mission Approved, rate the best chances for an upset. However, it is unlikely to happen.

Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational 

This is as wide open a race as you will find and it’s loaded with stars like last years Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama. He hasn’t lost since then, but has had significant time off racing just twice. A stat for him that jumps off the page is his 6 wins from 7 starts at the distance. His only loss came to Majesticperfection who was an absolute monster. While there are plenty of reasons to like him, I’ve got to go another direction because the competitiveness of the event.

My top pick will be Euroears who has been a new animal since joining Bob Baffert’s barn. He was last seen winning the Bing Crosby at Del Mar in track record breaking fashion over top animals Smiling Tiger and Amazombie. The seven-year-old is an absolute rocket ship and should gun from the start with JJ Castellano in the irons. I’ll probably use him and perhaps another one or two horses on the Pick 4 and play another ticket with an ALL in this race. Anything could happen in the 2011 Vosburgh.

Grade 2 Kelso Handicap

You can call this the “Uncle Mo Show”. The most popular horse in racing will get his first win since taking the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park. I loved the way he ran in defeat last out in the King’s Bishop. The colt proved he can rate effectively and narrowly lost to a sharp horse while earning a fat 106 Beyer Speed Figure. Don’t even bother trying to beat him. It’s just not going to happen unless something goes seriously wrong.

Grade 1 Beldame Invitational

The brilliant Havre de Grace is favored here based on her last out victory in the Woodward against males. This race might not be as simple as it seems though. The streaking filly Royal Delta will be a handful, and Todd Pletcher says reigning champ Life At Ten is the best looking horse in his barn right now. I’ll use all three on my Pick 4 and make Royal Delta my selection.

Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup

Rodman had a rough trip before fading last out in the Whitney. Three back in the Met Mile he posted a career best speed figure. I’m going to take him as my top selection as a price and hope he can beat the favorites to the finish. After him, Flat Out is the most interesting option. We had him as our top pick when he broke through at 14-1 in the Suburban and he has run two solid races since then.

All Stakes Pick 4: ALL/3/1,2,5/1,3

**Plan to do some Belmont betting? Check out our Horse Betting page. The Horse Racing Games section of our site is also worth a look!**

2011 Super Derby betting preview

The Grade 2 Super Derby has attracted a field of nine horses to compete for a purse of $500k on Saturday at Louisiana Downs. The last major winner of the race was Tiznow in 2000 who went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic later that fall and again the following year.

Prayer For Relief (Jump Start x Sparklin Lil by Mr. Sparkles) is the likely favorite after two sharp wins in the Iowa and West Virginia Derby. The Bob Baffert trainee has slowly progressed and is getting good at the right time. His only two races on dirt have been by far his best two races. He can race close to the front and that should be an advantage here as there isn’t a clear cut pace setter.

The only problem I see with Prayer For Relief is class. Yes he is exiting a Grade 2 win, but the horse that finished second there was risked for a claiming tag earlier this year. This will be the best field he has faced to date. I’m not saying he cant or wont compete with this group, only that he hasn’t beat a field this good yet. Despite that, with Rafael Bejarano and Bob Baffert in his corner backers of the colt haven’t too much cause for concern.

I really like Alternation (Distorted Humor x Alternate by Seattle Slew) who races for the red hot Donnie Von Hemel. He won the Peter Pan by a head over Adios Charlie two back and was last seen finishing fourth in the Jim Dandy. I’m not quite sure he was himself that day. When the colt is on his game he is one of the best in this crop. Pace could be a small concern, but in the end I think he is good enough to overcome that. Alternation is my top pick to win the Super Derby.

Who do you like in the 2011 Super Derby? Leave a comment and feel free to brag later on if your pick wins!

Looking for a place to bet Alternation? Check out our Horse Betting page. Also, consider checking out our Horse Racing Games page where you can learn about racing horses online for real money.

Free Saratoga Picks for 9/1/11

Check out our Horse Betting page for information on where to bet the races!

Saratoga Picks

Race 2 (Maiden Special Weight)

#1 Self Control (4-1): Breaking from the rail is never easy, but this one has shown a lot talent racing on the turf. His connections see fit to move the son of Lemon Drop Kid to dirt and I can’t argue with that move. 4-1 is a square price on very talented runner for Chad Brown and Ramon Dominguez.

Race 6 (Maiden claiming $50,000)

#2 Star Vest (5-1): George Weaver is an impressive 26% when debuting horses in maiden claimers. Albeit, that is from a small sample of 17 runners, but there is enough evidence to show he gets them ready to run at first asking. The daughter of A.P. Indy stallion Master Command has a sharp five furlong move in 1:01 2/5 Bg and looks ready to roll with Cornelio Velasquez in the irons.

Race 8 (Island Whirl Stakes)

#3 Rule by Night (9-2): He is also entered in the Forego for Saturday and I like him a bit there, so if they decide to run in this spot I almost have to pick him. The son of Malibu Moon won his only start at the distance when he cruised in the Groovy Stakes at Aqueduct last year winning by 9 ¼ lengths and earning a huge Beyer Speed Figure of 108. This will be his third start of the year and he should be ready to run huge for new jockey JJ Castellano and trainer Steve Asmussen. Look for him to set up shop just off the pace before pouncing in the stretch.

Race 9 (With Anticipation Stakes)

#1 Captain Webb (3-1): Love the way he cruised home by 2 ½ lengths to win his debut for Todd Pletcher and Johnny V. Click here to check out our write up for the race.

Early Pick 4: 1/ALL/1,2,4,5/8,10

Late Pick 4: 2,3,4,5,6/1/5,10/5,7,8,10,11

2011 Beverly D Video Preview

 

Dubawi Heights is our pick to win the Beverly D at Arlington Park. She will be a good price. Watch the video to find out more about the race! Head over to our Horse Betting page for information on where to play the race.

Check out our previews for races like the Secretariat Stakes, Arlington Million, La Jolla Handicap and more by visiting our Free Horse Racing Picks page.

 

2011 Whitney Invitational Handicap Preview

The Whitney Handicap is the premier race of the Saratoga meeting for older horses. The 1 ⅛ miles race is a grueling test which includes the likes of Alydar, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer, Awesome Again, Lemon Drop Kid, Invasor and Lawyer Ron among its winners.

Last year we nailed Blame ($8.80) as our top selection on the way to a $2,564 Pick 4. We also had Commentator ($10.80) as our top selection and play of the day when he won in 2008.

The 2011 edition of the Whitney looks very strong and could provide a lucrative payoff if you back the right racehorse. Let’s take a look at the field.

Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider): We had this tough runner as our top pick in each of his last two races. The first of those events was the Stephen Foster Handicap where he tried to make a move up the rail, but failed to close effectively at odds of 18-1. After that we backed him again in the Suburban. It turned out to be the right move as he romped home at odds of nearly 14-1. Alex Solis was aboard for the first time that day and elects to stay aboard even though he had options here. Now that everyone else is ready to jump on the train I am ready to hop off. While I like the horse he was a much more appealing prospect at double digit odds. He gets the rail today and has never won going two turns. I’ll pass at 4-1, but recognize that he could win this race.

Friend or Foe (Friends Lake x Unbridled Star by Unbridled) I’m bullish on this colt in the long term, but I don’t like that he has just won race this year. Even though it was a good race in which he defeated Rail Trip by a head, I wish he had a bit more seasoning. On the bright side he proved how talented he is by winning the Empire Classic Handicap by five lengths in his penultimate race last year. I’m confident that he will score a break through win soon, but I don’t know if it will be in the Whitney at 8-1. Jose Lezcano picks up the mount from Alex Solis.

Morning Line (Tiznow x Indian Snow by AP Indy) The Nick Zito trainee scored his best lifetime win over this distance when he won the Pennsylvania Derby last year. Since then he has become a Grade 1 winner by taking the Carter Handicap and was involved in a very close finish in the Breeders Cups Dirt Mile. I’m willing to excuse his last out effort in the Salvator Mile where he ended up fifth. Regular jockey John Velazquez was gone that day and the first three finishers came back to run well with Soaring Empire winning, Kensei finishing behind him and Rule taking a minor stakes race at Saratoga. Things could get heated up front so I expect Johnny V to try and get him to relax behind a few horses. He is as good as any horse in this race and deserves consideration at odds of 10-1.

Giant Oak (Giant’s Causeway x Crafty Oak by Crafty Prospector) The first thing I notice when I look at this horse is the shiny :58 4/5 five furlong breezing bullet he fired over the Saratoga track on July 31. The Donn Handicap winner is clearly getting better as he gets older. His last two races have seen him make two furious charges down the lane only to come up short. The pace wasn’t particularly hot in either of those races, but it could be torrid in this one. That means he will have a big shot at winning. The only bad thing I can see for him is that he will have Shaun Bridgmahon riding. Nothing against the guy, but he is ice cold right now. It is very clear to me that this is a horse that is doing well and thriving at Saratoga and if not for this being a highly contentious field he might be my pick.

Tizway (Tiznow x Bethany by Dajyur) We had this great colt as our top selection in the Metropolitan Mile last out where he cruised to an easy win smashing the clock in 1:32 4/5 at odds of 4-1. Many will be hot to bet him after such an amazing performance, but I will encourage caution before doing so. First, we must consider that that win came over what is clearly his favorite track. Tizway has dominated at Belmont Park with a win in the Kelso and third place finishes in the 2009 Jockey Club Gold Cup and 2010 Met Mile. Furthermore, this colt has proven that his optimal distance is one mile. I’m not saying Tizway can’t or wont win, but the price will not be generous enough as I expect him to be bet well below his morning line odds of 6-1. Rajiv Maragh gets the call to ride.

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Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) The Todd Pletcher trainee raced near a very soft pace last out in the Stephen Foster Handicap and just missed holding on while finishing second beaten a neck to upset winner Pool Play. His last win came at Fair Grounds in the New Orleans Handicap where he beat Apart and Giant Oak. His record at the distance is incredible with 2 wins from 3 starts. I know it’s only 2 wins, but when you consider that those wins were the aforementioned New Orleans Handicap and Louisiana Derby that record sounds much better. In the end he rates  below my top few horses in here, but would be no surprise for top notch connections. JJ Castellano rides back after boarding him for the first time last out.

Rail Trip (Jump Start x Sweet Trip by Carson City) It’s been a long road to redemption for the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup winner, but it appears he is back in top form for Jay Em Ess Stable and trainer Richard Dutrow. His first race in over six months came on June 5 in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont Park where he set a very rapid pace and was only narrowly defeated by Friend Or Foe. Clearly that is a strong race for a gelding that hadn’t been out in so long. Rail Trip races best near the front and I will look for Ramon Dominguez to put him on the lead. If he is fit enough he could take them all the way at a juicy price of 12-1.

Headache (Tapit x Pamric by Woodman) As horse bettors it is our job to look for the horses that are getting better and capitalize at a big price. We picked Headache to win the Cornhusker Handicap last out and he came through at odds of 9/2. That was a big effort as Miguel Mena angled him outside and he roared past Grade 1 winner Awesome Gem for a 2 ½ length victory. Trainer Mike Maker is no spring chicken and if you don’t know who he is then you should check him out on Google ASAP. The closer will get a big pace to chase and it looks like he is in great form right now. I highly encourage including him on Pick 4 tickets at odds of 20-1. He would come as no surprise if he were to win the Whitney. Ken and Sarah Ramsey might have a big time runner in this former claimer.

Rodman (Malibu Moon x Crystal Gem) It seems like we have hit every horse in this race at some point and Rodman is no exception. He was our big price horse in the Met Mile as we nailed the $378 exacta cold with Rodman second at huge odds of 36-1. He had no business being such a big price in there as the horse has proven he can run with the best of ‘em by easily winning the Irish Tower in his previous start. Rodman was a distant third in the Suburban last out where JJ Castellano put him on the lead and he set fast fractions. While this guy can be effective on the front he is clearly better when closing. His second place finish in the Met happened with him rallying from as far back as ninth. I’m a little worried this isn’t his best distance, but with a perfect 2 for 2 record at Saratoga and a boat load of talent this isn’t a horse you want to leave off your Pick 4 ticket. Edgar Prado gets the mount back for the first time since 2009. I’ll make him the top pick at 20-1.

Apart (Flatter x Detach by Unbridled) Last year’s Super Derby winner comes to Saratoga in search of his first Grade 1 win after finishing third in the Stephen Foster last out. He races for Al Stall and will have Julien Leparoux up for the second time. The closer will get a very fast pace to chase in here, but I’m just not sold that he is good enough to even hit the board in this race. I’m going to pass odds of 6-1 which I consider to be a huge underlay.

Duke Of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) He defeated one of the deepest field of handicap horses we have seen in a very long time two back in the Charles Town Classic. On his best day this horse can win this, but he is sort of like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. You never know which one you will get. He closed well last out in the Stephen Foster even after having a very slow pace in front of him and even led at one point before ending up fourth. He has a sharp four furlong work in :46 4/6 B over the track which rated first of 95 moves. I’m bullish at 8-1 and look for him to be finishing very well under Joe Bravo.

In summation my top selection to win the Whitney Invitational Handicap from Saratoga is Rodman (20-1). I love that he is a perfect 2 for 2 at Saratoga and he should race from off the pace with Edgar Prado back up. He showed us in the Metropolitan Mile that he is still a highly talented individual and over looking him at such a big price is a huge mistake. Horses to include on the Pick 4 other than my top selection are Giant Oak, Headache and Duke of Mischief. If you feel like going very deep I would also throw in Morning Line and Rail Trip.

To get our full card picks for all of the horse racing action at Saratoga check out our Saratoga Picks page.

Betting online for the Whitney Handicap is convenient and easy. Just head over to Twin Spires or  TVG where new players get a $100+ sign up bonus!

Saratoga off to a fast start

The racing action from Saratoga is in full swing. The most notable winners of the first weekend of racing were Georgie’s Angel in the Schuylerville and Overdriven in the Sanford. Both charges were trained by Todd Pletcher (go figure). You couldn’t get a price on either one, but that didn’t stop us from scoring a profitable weekend. Let’s take a look at a few of our winners at Saratoga from opening weekend.

Race 3 (Friday)

Wise Stop ($11.80) went wire to wire for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. We really liked him as a lone speed prospect and he rewarded us for the confidence.

Race 1 (Saturday)

Shatoosh stretched out on the turf for top trainer Michael Matz and jockey Ramon Dominguez. The filly made the front and nearly held on for the win, but was nailed by favored Deanaallen’skitten on the wire. She returned $16.00 to place while keying a $145 exacta behind the chalk.

Race 5 (Saturday)

Dynafortwo ($11.80) was a top rated play. The son of Dynaformer was making his second start for trainer Christophe Clement and jockey Julien Leparoux. His works were great and when you consider he was racing for the best turf trainer and jockey in America it made him a very appealing play.

Race 10 (Saturday)

Stakes are our forte and the CCA Oaks was a key play. It’s Tricky ($10.60) showed tremendous grit coming back to defeat Turbulent Descent in the Acorn after losing at Gulfstream. We backed the hometown filly here and she rewarded us with a big price considering the short field.

Race 11 (Saturday)

Binks Forest ($9.10) moved to the barn of top turf trainer William Phipps for this race and won easily. Thank to him our top picks in each of the last two legs of the $1,448 Pick 4 won. Nailing an exotic like that is much easier if you can single your top choices.

Race 3 (Sunday)

I love horses dropping way down in class under the right circumstances. Hystericalcat ($32.80) was making just such a move and I knew I had a big shot with him when I saw his last two bullet works. The speedster cut back in distance got the job done at a huge price.

Race 4 (Sunday)

Happy Bull ($4.10) didn’t pay a big price, but considering our top picks won two consecutive legs of the Pick 4 (again) he is worth mentioning. That exotic wager paid $5,882.

I’ve handicapped the Saratoga meet for a few years and I can say from experience that I only get better as time goes on. It’s not too late to get in our Saratoga picks for the meet. Head over to our Saratoga picks page to find more information about getting our Monday picks as well for the rest of the meet!

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Del Mar free pick for 7/22/11

 

Del Mar is in full swing with its third day of action coming up Friday. Opening day was full of good price winners. We started and ended on a good note with our top picks Price ($10.40) and Gahnzo Bob ($6.00) winning the first and last races.

Today’s free pick comes in the first race. Let’s take a look. If you like this pick consider checking out our Del Mar Picks page where you can get today’s daily card or purchase picks for the entire meet.

Senor Rain: Peter Miller is an excellent trainer with first time starters scoring with 17% winners in this situation. He is even better when debuting in maiden claimers taking 25% of those races. This son of the Storm Cat stallion El Nino sold for $38,000 at the OBS Sale earlier this year and has been working sharply. His best work was a 1:00 3/5 H move on July 4 at Hollywood Park. He looks ready to roll against a weak group of two-year-olds at odds of 3-1 with Martin Garcia in the irons.
Those new to horse betting should consider playing this pick at Twin Spires where they will get an industry best $100 sign up bonus.

2011 Coaching Club American Oaks betting preview

The CCA Oaks is one of the premier races each year for three-year-old fillies. It is contested at nine furlongs on the main track at Saratoga. Notable recent winners include Devil May Care, Music Note and Ashado.

Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty (Medaglia d’Oro x Liszy by AP Indy) headlines this field. Since her gritty win at Churchill Downs she has raced just once and placed second in the Hollywood Oaks. She was defeated by a top filly there named Zazu, but I don’t know if Plum Pretty was ready to run her best race that day. Bob Baffert is crazy good whens shipping to Saratoga so we know the likely favorite has a big shot. Martin Garcia will make the trip to ride.

Royal Delta (Empire Maker x Delta Princess by AP Indy) figures to get plenty of action as well for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Jose Lezcano. A winner of three of her four career starts, she was last seen coming from off the pace to post a stylish victory in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico. The second place finisher there, Buster’s Ready (More Than Ready x Beatem Buster by Honour and glory), returned to take the Grade 1 Mother Goose. She is also entered here for Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.

The entry of Kentucky Oaks favorite Joyful Victory (Tapit x Wild Lucky Black by Wild Again) is worth mentioning. She destroyed two races at Oaklawn earlier this year when she won the Honeybee and Fantasy. Since then she was a flat fourth in the Kentucky Oaks and well beaten second in the Mother Goose. She’s got a top trainer in Larry Jones. Maybe he has figured something out to turn her around and bring that Oaklawn form back.

It’s Tricky (Mineshaft x Catboat by Tale of the Cat) defeated top filly Turbulent Descent last out in the Acorn Stakes. That win was highly impressive and came under new jockey Eddie Castro. Trainer Kiaran McLaughing has wisely opted to keep him aboard. This filly is a winner of four of five lifetime starts. The lass will be a pace factor in this race.

While it is a short field of five horses, the CCA is one of those rare instances where every single horse in the race can win. That means if you have a solid opinion and can single on the Pick 4 it will pay off. We have just such an opinion and you can get in on our top pick as well as exotic tickets by checking out our Saratoga Picks page.

New players should consider betting the CCA Oaks at Twin Spires. They are owned by Churchill Downs and offer a $100 sign up bonus.