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Zenyatta early favorite to repeat in Breeders Cup Classic

June 17, 2010 By Ryan Leave a Comment


Zenyatta is favored to repeat in the Breeders Cup Classic according to an unscientific poll conducted by Gradedstakes.com. The daughter of Street Cry received 35% of the 140 votes. She recently improved her record to 17 wins from 17 starts while recording a narrow victory that may have been easier than it looked over the British mare St Trinians in the Vanity Handicap. She is being tentatively pointed to the Clement Hirsch Stakes at Del Mar for her next start.

Checking in second with 23.57% of the vote is Nick Zito’s Kentucky Derby runner up Ice Box. He was last seen finishing ninth in the Belmont Stakes. Zito said that the hot weather may have caused the son of Pulpit to perform poorly. The deep closer needs a fast pace to chase and if they burn it up in the Breeders Cup Classic he would be a serious threat. His next start hasn’t been determined.

Quality Road recorded the third highest amount of votes with 17.85% of all ballots. The son of Elusive Quality out of a Strawberry Road mare set brutal fractions and held on to win the Metropolitan Mile in a time of 1:33.11 seconds during his last race. Trainer Todd Pletcher likes to race him fresh and will wait for August 7 and the Whitney Handicap for his next start. I’d like to see him race more. His time in the Met Mile may have been even faster if he wasn’t running off the shelf. Despite that, its very hard to complain about a Grade 1 win under any circumstances. I just think Quality Road is immensely talented and capable of even more. The 10 furlongs distance of the Breeders Cup Classic will be the biggest question for him in November.

The fourth place finisher in the poll was Preakness Stakes winner Lookin At Lucky who garnered 10.7% of all votes. Bob Baffert is currently pointing him towards a start in the Haskell Invitational and then the Travers Stakes. ‘Lucky has a strong group of older horses to compete with this year, but he always bring his “A” game. The son of Smart Strike could be in the mix for the Breeders Cup Classic.

The fifth place finisher was the choice “Other” with 5.71%. This could include horses like Rachel Alexandra who recently got back on track with a powerful 10+ length win in the Fleur de Lis at Churchill Downs. Another horse not listed that could have an impact in the Breeders Cup Classic is Belmont Stakes runner up Fly Down. It looks like he is only now finding his best run. Another possibility is Musket Man although I think he is much more likely to compete in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile.

Little to no confidence is being placed in Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver who got just 2.8% of all votes. I think he deserves more consideration. You have to remember that the Breeders Cup Classic will be contested at Churchill Downs. Super Saver loves the track. He also has the benefit of Calvin Borel aka the King of Churchill Downs. Don’t count Super Saver out based solely on his poor Preakness performance.

Checking in tied for 7th are Rail Trip and Blame. Both are very tough older horses. Blame was most recently seen easily taking the Stephen Foster Handicap at Churchill Downs. He loves the track and that will play to his benefit in November. Trainer Albert Stall has always been high on the horse. I think if he continues to improve he will be the one to beat in the Breeders Cup Classic. If I had to take one horse today to win the ‘Classic it would be Blame.

Rail Trip is also a nice runner. He took the Hollywood Gold Cup last year and is trying to repeat this year. He scored an easy win in the Californian last out with new rider Rafael Bejarano. Will he handle the dirt? That is his biggest obstacle. He missed last years Breeders Cup Classic due to injury.

Who is your early pick in Breeders Cup Classic later this year? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

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Challengers lining up to face Pletcher and Borel’s Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver

May 3, 2010 By Ryan Leave a Comment


For the third time in four years Calvin Borel rocketed his mount to the front of the pack in the Kentucky Derby. In 2007 it was aboard juvenile champion Street Sense. He did it on super long shot Mine That Bird in 2009. This time it was on Super Saver. The Cajun jockey held three fingers to the sky after the race to signify these three horses.

Soon after he boldly stated that the son of Maria’s Mon would win the Triple Crown. Trainer Todd Pletcher said that Super Saver’s next race would come in the Preakness (shocking, right?). Calvin may believe he has the 12th Triple Crown winner of all time, but several challengers will line up to oppose him.

The first one that leaps out to me is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby runner up A Little Warm. He was very impressive stretching out in distance for the first time in that race. He appeared to be a sprinter, but he proved his doubters wrong by digging in and holding on for second after he came under attack early in the stretch run. If he can improve on that effort he would be dangerous in the Preakness. If Bob Baffert doesn’t send Conveyance his chances will be increased. Conveyance would likely burn him to a crisp on the lead.

I also like Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado. The gelded son of Cat Dreams has had excuses in his last to races. In the Grade 2 San Felipe he had no fractions to chase and Sidney’s Candy easily pulled the wire job. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he had to check sharply after the Gomez-Espinoza incident where Lookin at Lucky was slammed into the rail. If he goes to the Preakness and the fractions are sharp you can bet your ass he will come flying late. The only thing working against him is that Pimlico Racecourse favors speed.

The Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin at Lucky, would have a heck of a chance if Bob Baffert decides to send him. He has encountered plenty of trouble in his three-year-old campaign, but has handled it well. He rallied to win the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes after clipping heels. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he was unable to overcome being slammed into the rail, but still finished third. He put in a nice rally in the Derby but couldn’t overcome his rail post position. If Garrett Gomez can navigate a clean trip he will be loaded for bear turning for home and could mow them all down.

Others considering the race are Kentucky Derby third place finisher Paddy O’Prado. He is the definition of the “now” horse. He continues to improve with every start. Nick Zito and Bob LaPenta are toying with idea of starting Kentucky Derby runner up Ice Box in the Preakness, but will probably save him for the Belmont Stakes. Ice Box was easily the best colt in the Derby, but didn’t win because of an awful trip. Their other horse, Jackson Bend, is likely to go.

Other Kentucky Derby also rans’ considering the Preakness are Dublin, Make Music For Me, and Conveyance. New shooters include the Grade 3 Derby Trial first three finishers Hurricane Ike, Aikenite, and Pleasant Prince. Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby runner up Schoolyard Dreams and Grade 3 Illinois Derby fourth place finisher Turf Melody wrap up the list of potential challengers. Super Saver will undoubtedly be in with a huge shot, but these horses won’t make it easy on him.

Who is your early pick for the Preakness? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

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Kentucky Derby Top 10

April 11, 2010 By Ryan 11 Comments

Are you counting down the days yet? I know I am. There are 20 days until the Kentucky Derby. All of the major preps except for the Lexington Stakes have been conducted. Some horses will get injured and kept out of the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, but we pretty much know who is who at this point in time. Let’s take a look at my top contenders.

#1 Eskendereya- If this colt were a character from a movie he would be Clubber Lang from Rocky III. He reminds me of this quote from Mickey in that movie: “No, he ain’t just another fighter! This guy is a wrecking machine! And he’s hungry!”. My prediction for the Kentucky Derby? …..Pain! This son of Giant’s Causeway has a gun in a knife fight.

#2 Sidney’s Candy- I’ve said for a while that we don’t know how good this colt really is. Even after winning the Santa Anita Derby I STILL don’t think we have seen the bottom of him. I doubt he is as good as my #1 selection and his running style may compromise his chances. Can Talamo get him to rate? It might not matter if he is “just that good”.

#3 Lookin at Lucky- This colt’s name is quite an oxymoron. He has won 6 of 8 races, and if not for two horrible trips he might be undefeated. I love the way he still rallied to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby despite being pushed into the rail early in the race. He has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs. He is in great hands with Bob Baffert and big money rider Garrett Gomez.

#4 Paddy O’ Prado- I thought he was gone in the stretch of the Bluegrass Stakes until Stately Victor totally freaked and won the race. He is steadily improving and I just have a funny feeling that this colt is for real. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has a great record in the Kentucky Derby.

#5 Rule- The setup of the Florida Derby worked against him. I was nearly 100% sure a closer wouldn’t win that race. I loved his 2010 debut win when he took the Sam Davis Stakes. I’m not sure he is a candidate for top honors, but I can see him running a big race.

#6 Dublin- If he wasn’t in D Wayne Lukas’s barn I probably wouldn’t give him a shot. He had a perfect chance to win Arkansas Derby, but failed to go for the jugular late in the race. Monitor his training in the days leading up to the race.

#7 Awesome Act- He looked poised for a big run in the Wood Memorial turning for home, but when Leparoux unleashed him there wasn’t much there. However, I believe he lost a shoe at the start of the race. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give a good impression of himself on Kentucky Derby day.

#8 Noble’s Promise- His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby sure didn’t help his chances. Ken McPeek is still on the fence in terms of deciding to race him in the Run for the Roses.

#9 Super Saver- Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt always give a good account of himself. His running style will probably hurt his chances on the First Saturday in May.

#10 Ice Box- I’m wary of this colt because he won the Florida Derby closing into a tough pace. How will he do when the track doesn’t play in his favor?

So there you have it, my top ten contenders for the Kentucky Derby. This list is almost  certain to change between now and May 1. Kentucky Derby betting will be very interesting, exciting, and fun this year. Who do you like? Leave a comment and join the conversation!

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Ice Box pulls shocker in Florida Derby

March 21, 2010 By Ryan 2 Comments

Ice Box's trainer Nick Zito

I had a good feeling it was going to be bombs away in the Florida Derby. I told those who purchased my selections that. My top pick, Pleasant Prince, narrowly missed at odds of 29-1. He nearly gave me a heart attack, because I thought I was in the clear during the late stages of the race.

It wasn’t to be. Pleasant Prince was edged out by Nick Zito trainee Ice Box. Both finished behind Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth last out. The winner was sent off at odds of 20-1. Pleasant Prince returned $26.40 to place and $11.60, so those that played him across on the board on my advisement did very well. I still wish he had won though!

The pace of the race set up well for both horses who closed from well back. It appeared for a brief moment that the favored Rule would kick for home with ease, but he was all out despite having looked otherwise. He ended up third. The Todd Pletcher trainee put in a good race considering the pace scenario. I wouldn’t hesitate to give him a look in the Kentucky Derby. Lentenor, best known for being the full brother of Barbaro, was fourth. He ran well in his first try on dirt, but probably isn’t Kentucky Derby material.

The under card was interesting. Devil May Care validated her win in the Frizette at 2 by running huge to take the Bonnie Miss. She was quite green, but couldn’t have won any easier than she did. Christine Daae and Amen Hallelujah ran clunkers even though they both caught plenty of action. D’ Funnybone posted an easy win the Swale. The connections say he won’t target the Kentucky Derby, but are considering the Preakness.

What did you think of Saturday’s races? Let me know by leaving a comment below!

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Jackson Bend and Buddy’s Saint lead strong Fountain of Youth Stakes

February 17, 2010 By Ryan Leave a Comment

The Fountain of Youth Stakes served as a “coming out” party of sorts for Quality Road in 2009. He would use the race as a springboard for a win in the Florida Derby. The field was very strong last year and is just as strong in 2010. Jackson Bend and Buddy’s Saint figure to get most of the money. Buddy’s Saint is making his three-year-old debut after a strong win in the Remsen at 2, and Jackson Bend was last seen running second in the Holy Bull Stakes. Let’s take a look at the field.

Eskendereya looks like the speed of the speed for trainer Todd Pletcher. The son of Giant’s Causeway is a perfect two for two on dirt tracks. He was last seen winning an allowance at Gufstream Park. He is training very well and will have John Velazquez in the irons. Stablemate Aikenite is also entered here. He ran 6th in the Holy Bull in his last start. Pletcher was quoted that the extra distance today will help his cause.

Trainer Nick Zito will send out Jackson Bend and Ice Box. The latter won an allowance in his last start. Joe Bravo will pick up the mount on the son of Pulpit. Jackson Bend turned many heads when he swept the Florida Stallion Stakes. He was so impressive that Robert LaPenta privately purchased him. He is sired by Hear No Evil. The colt was super impressive last out when he finished second to Winslow Homer in the  Holy Bull. He had a bad trip and had to endure brutal fractions. He should have a huge shot to win here.

Buddy’s Saint is a son of the ill fated Saint Liam who died shortly after  beginning his career at stud. He has showed tons of ability so far with huge wins in the Nashua Stakes and Remsen Stakes at 2. If he has improved since those efforts its going to be scary to see how good he is. Jose Lezcano will retain the mount for Bruce Levine. It would come as no shock if he won this race.

Lost Aptitude will be switching to dirt from turf for trainer Dale Romans. The son of Aptitude has never run a bad race on the turf, but its hard to know how he will do on the dirt. He won the Grand Canyon Handicap at Churchill Downs in November. He just missed winning the Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby in his last start where he ended up second. Rajiv Maragh will get the mount.

Mike Smith will be in to ride Pulsion for Patrick Biancone. He finished second in the Grade 1 Norfolk behind Lookin at Lucky, but couldnt put it together in the Breeders Cup Juvenile where he finished 11th. He is working very strongly, but will need a fast pace in order to have a chance.

Pleasant Prince, Prince Will I Am, and Positive Split round out the field. Who do you like in the Fountain of Youth Stakes? Leave a comment and share your thoughts. My picks and plays are available by clicking here. I did very well last week. I had the winner in 5 of 7 races. Don’t miss out!

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