February 5, 2012

Super Saturday Breeders Cup Preview from Belmont Park

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The days are rolling off the calender and the 2011 Breeders Cup is rapidly approaching. Before that we have Super Saturday at Belmont Park which provides an excellent preview of the coming championship day. Often these big days leading into the Breeders Cup can disappoint, but the fields for this year’s edition of the Flower Bowl, Kelso, Vosburgh and Jockey Club Gold Cup have me salivating. Let’s take a look.

Grade 1 Flower Bowl Invitational

We aren’t likely to see a surprise in this one. If the favored Stacelita runs her race there is little to no chance she loses. The French bred mare won the Beverley D last out in her first try for trainer Chad Brown. The 2009 French Oaks winner just appears too good to lose this one.

Grade 1 Turf Classic Invitational

I’m the first person to try and beat a favorite, but Cape Blanco appears to have this group over a barrel. The Irish bred son of Galileo won the Arlington Million last out and before that the Man O’ War over this Belmont turf course. Last year’s winner, Winchester, and this year’s Manhattan winner, Mission Approved, rate the best chances for an upset. However, it is unlikely to happen.

Grade 1 Vosburgh Invitational 

This is as wide open a race as you will find and it’s loaded with stars like last years Breeders Cup Sprint winner Big Drama. He hasn’t lost since then, but has had significant time off racing just twice. A stat for him that jumps off the page is his 6 wins from 7 starts at the distance. His only loss came to Majesticperfection who was an absolute monster. While there are plenty of reasons to like him, I’ve got to go another direction because the competitiveness of the event.

My top pick will be Euroears who has been a new animal since joining Bob Baffert’s barn. He was last seen winning the Bing Crosby at Del Mar in track record breaking fashion over top animals Smiling Tiger and Amazombie. The seven-year-old is an absolute rocket ship and should gun from the start with JJ Castellano in the irons. I’ll probably use him and perhaps another one or two horses on the Pick 4 and play another ticket with an ALL in this race. Anything could happen in the 2011 Vosburgh.

Grade 2 Kelso Handicap

You can call this the “Uncle Mo Show”. The most popular horse in racing will get his first win since taking the Timely Writer at Gulfstream Park. I loved the way he ran in defeat last out in the King’s Bishop. The colt proved he can rate effectively and narrowly lost to a sharp horse while earning a fat 106 Beyer Speed Figure. Don’t even bother trying to beat him. It’s just not going to happen unless something goes seriously wrong.

Grade 1 Beldame Invitational

The brilliant Havre de Grace is favored here based on her last out victory in the Woodward against males. This race might not be as simple as it seems though. The streaking filly Royal Delta will be a handful, and Todd Pletcher says reigning champ Life At Ten is the best looking horse in his barn right now. I’ll use all three on my Pick 4 and make Royal Delta my selection.

Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup

Rodman had a rough trip before fading last out in the Whitney. Three back in the Met Mile he posted a career best speed figure. I’m going to take him as my top selection as a price and hope he can beat the favorites to the finish. After him, Flat Out is the most interesting option. We had him as our top pick when he broke through at 14-1 in the Suburban and he has run two solid races since then.

All Stakes Pick 4: ALL/3/1,2,5/1,3

**Plan to do some Belmont betting? Check out our Horse Betting page. The Horse Racing Games section of our site is also worth a look!**

GoGo at fault for Blame’s loss? Give me a break….

I’ve had my fair share of bad rides. There are times when a jockey has refused to take a clear rail, and instead went wide and ended up falling just short. Sure, I complained. However, you will never hear me complain about a jockey when he clearly does nothing wrong. That is why I’m confused as to why Jerry Bossert of NY Daily News wants to pin the blame on Garrett Gomez for Blame’s failure to win the Jockey Club Gold Cup.

Anyone with half a brain knew that Haynesfield going wire to wire in the Jockey Club Gold Cup was a distinct possibility. I noted this in my writeup of the race. I believed the colt wasn’t classy enough to carry his speed and it would be Rail Trip getting first jump who would win the race. I was wrong. Rail Trip faded and Haynesfield got stronger as the race got longer. Kind of odd since he is a son of Speightstown, right?

The fractions for the race were :24 3/5, 48 3/5, and then 1:13 1/5. GoGo had his charge a little closer than normal, but in the end Blame is a closer. There is nothing Gomez can do about that. He inched closer as the race went on, but in the end he fell victim to a soft pace. Would you blame Mike Smith for not having Zenyatta close enough? Of course not. That’s just the way the mare runs.

I also saw plenty of criticism for Johnny Velazquez when he lost the Whitney on Quality Road. Johnny V went to the lead and set a slow pace, but in the end Blame was able to gun him down. How can we blame him for taking a speed horse to the lead and slowing things down? He did his job perfectly, and Quality Road got beat by a better horse that day.

I’m sure Jerry Bossert is a wonderful fellow, but I don’t understand how he could blame Gomez for this one. Do you?

Haynesfield upsets in Jockey Club Gold Cup to top exciting weekend!

Well, I knew he was lone speed, but I didn’t think Haynesfield was classy enough to take them all the way in the Jockey Club Gold Cup. How wrong I was! The son of Speightstown proved his pedigree wrong and got stronger as the race got longer to register his first Grade 1 victory. Blame, the 3-5 favorite, finished well back in second. Travers runner up Fly Down was third.

Trainer Steve Asmussen is considering the Breeders Cup Classic for Haynesfield. Unless he freaks in that race he has almost no chance at all to win.  I’ve always liked the horse, but he is a cut below the best in the nation. His freakish performance was the result of a lack of pace and a short field. I’d like to see him in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. It is likely he would be in with a big shot to win that race.

I’m glad that Blame lost. He’s been my Breeders Cup Classic horse for a long time. All that his loss in the Jockey Club will do is ripen his price for the Classic. I’m every bit as confident in him as I was before he ran second. The son of Arch will be peaking in November and charging late with an enormous shot to win the $5 million race.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup wasn’t the only big race this weekend.

The Cotillion saw Havre de Grace finally get the better of Blind Luck, although narrowly. The rivalry between the three-year-old fillies is shaping up as the best in the nation. It is likely both will make their next start in the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic. They will meet Life At Ten there. She won the Beldame on Saturday against a decent, but small field. The Ladies Classic looks to be one of the best betting races of the Breeders Cup.

Giralamo got the best of Riley Tucker to beat what was a very weak group in the Vosburgh. It’s always tough to say this far in advance, but I have a hard time seeing him run big in the Breeders Cup Sprint. I could be wrong, because just as the Vosburgh was a weak group, so could be the Sprint. Anything can happen. He’s a nice horse, but I just wonder why he didn’t beat Riley Tucker by more. I’ve never thought much of Riley Tucker.

In your mind, what was the highlight of the racing this weekend? Are you excited for the Breeders Cup? Leave a comment and discuss!

Free Picks for Saturday @ Belmont

Tomorrow is a huge day of racing at Belmont Park! I’m too tired to say much, but here are my picks for the big races. I highly encourage giving my Pick 4 ticket a shot for $18.

Vosburgh Stakes: Driven By Success (4-1)

Flower Bowl Invitational: Shared Account (6-1)

Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational: Paddy O’ Prado (3-1)

Beldame Stakes: Life At Ten (9-5)

Jockey Club Gold Cup: Rail Trip (5-2)

Pick 4: 2,7,8/1,6/9/1,2,8

Good luck!

Blame goes from hunter to hunted in Jockey Club Gold Cup

While the race isn’t as strong as it has been in recent memory, the Jockey Club Gold Cup will be fun to watch. It is a race with serious Breeders Cup Classic implications.

The favorite is Foster Handicap, and Whitney Handicap winner Blame. The Al Stall trainee is riding a five race win streak. His most recent win came in the Whitney Handicap where he blasted past the heavily favored Quality Road who had set a dawdling pace. Regular visitors of this website know that I was on his bandwagon a very long time ago. I said in June that he would likely be my Breeders Cup Classic horse.

Despite his great form, Blame could have some trouble here. It will be his first time going 10 furlongs, and this race appears to be severely lacking in the pace department. Can he gun down lone speed going a little further? It certainly wouldn’t surprise me, but I’m not willing to just concede the race to him for those two reason.

West coast shipper and Jay Em Ess owned Rail Trip will get plenty of support at the windows. He took the Hollywood Gold Cup in 2009. That race is contested at today’s distance of 10 furlongs. This race will be the first start for the son of Jump Start in the barn of Richard Dutrow. His works are impressive, and he is handling the track well.

One of the biggest things going against him, for me, is Cornelio Velasquez. He’s off to a fast start at the Belmont meet, but he’s been pretty dreadful over the past year or two. Hopefully he can return to his winning ways of the past. Dutrow really moves horses up. He’s got Rail Trip training beautifully. This gelding has the perfect running style to win this thing.  If something happens to Haynesfield, he could probably wing it on the front end and take them all the way. Rail Trip wouldn’t shock.

I’m a big fan of Pick 4′s. They provide good value and, the payoffs are excellent. The key to cashing a nice Pick 4 is finding value. I think the value horse in this race is definitely Fly Down. The three-year-old proved he can go the distance. The son of Mineshaft finished 2nd by a dirty nose in the Travers last out. He would’ve certainly won with a cleaner trip. Pace could be a problem for this one as well, but he’s closed into slow paces in the past. I’m not wild about jockey Jose Lezcano lately, but I would be afraid not to have this guy on my ticket.

The only speed horse in the race is Haynesfield. He failed to make the lead after breaking through the gate last out in the Whitney, but you can expect to see him on the front end this time. 10 furlongs is probably out of this colt’s range. Look for him to back up big time in the stretch. He’s still a nice colt going 8 or 9 furlongs and I expect the connections to turn him back in his next race

Hold Me Back, Mythical Power, Dry Martini, and Tranquil Manner round out the field. This is a three horse race in my mind. Fly Down, Blame, and Rail Trip are those horses. Blame is clearly the best horse, but the best horse doesn’t always win. I’m going to make Rail Trip my top selections. He hasn’t raced in several months, but that doesn’t bother me. He’s going to get first run at Haynesfield, and hopefully he can kick clear. I’ll use all three on my Pick 4 ticket, and play a secondary ticket with him singled. Who do you like? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

Jockey Club Gold Cup, Vosburgh, and Beldame just a few of the great races this weekend!

It doesn’t get much better than this weekend when it comes to Breeders Cup preps. The Classic Division has the Jockey Club Gold Cup, Hawthorne Gold Cup, Ohio Derby, and Indiana Derby. The Sprint Division will see some of its best bang heads in the Vosburgh, and the Beldame will boast some of the best females in the country. The Flower Bowl and Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational will also take place on the grass. Wagering or not, you will want to keep tabs on the winners of these races. I also advise watching and analyzing the videos when they are uploaded to the internet.

The Jockey Club Gold Cup has a very deep field that includes Belmont and Travers Stakes winner Summer Bird. He has been working up a storm leading to this race. Older horse and Stephen Foster Handicap winner Macho Again will also be competing after finishing second to Rachel Alexandra last out in the Woodward. I’ll be wagering on Florida Derby winner Quality Road. While hindsight is always 20/20 he wasn’t the best bet last time. This time he will be making his third start since the lay off, and has experience at the distance. For a closer look at the Jockey Club Gold Cup check out my Breeders Cup Blog for the NTRA by clicking here.

Fabulous Strike will favored to win the Vosburgh Stakes for the third time in three years. He finished second last year after complications with a shoe. He has brutal speed, and can go fast while still hanging on late in the race. Trainer Todd Beattie is open to running in the Breeders Cup again, but he obviously wants to see how the gelding does here first. His biggest challenge will come in the form of Tom Fool Handicap winner Munnings. The three-year-old is highly regarded but is probably more optimal at seven furlongs. Go Go Shoot, Kodiak Kowboy and Peace Chant will also seek to take the cake in this race.

I loved her chances last out, and Careless Jewel was a dominating victor of the Alabama Stakes. She is going to be favored to take the Cotillion Stakes at Philadelphia Park this weekend. The gray filly has excellent early zip and will have a hell of a chance to win. There are many capable fillies in the race, but I like Cat Moves for a price. Already a Grade 1 winner early in her career, she has never raced this far. If she can translate her sprint form then she will be very tough in this one. Betting her is contingent with getting at least her 8/1 morning line price. I wouldn’t take less than that.

I’ve always thought that Music Note was an absolute monster, and last race was no exception. She won at a nice price in her first try sprinting, taking down Indian Blessing and Informed Decision. She will only have to beat four other fillies in the Bel Dame, but that doesn’t guarantee victory. Unbridled Belle has been hit and miss lately, but has enough talent to win this one on her best day. I’ll be rooting for Music Note, and I look forward to seeing her in this years Breeders Cup.

The Flower Bowl looks like a nice race. Pure Clan is the 3-1 ML second choice, and I expect a big run from her. A Grade 1 winner at three, Pure Clan has yet to show her true form this year. She finished third last out in the Beverley D last out, and will have to down the winner of that race (Dynaforce) to be successful here. Dynaforce has always looks like a nice mare, but had tailed off in form until last out. Kent Desormeaux worked his magic and won the Bev D at a nice price. It seems like everything he rides on the turf wins.

Gio Ponti would have to run a very bad race to lose the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic Invitational. He is easily the best turf horse in the country, and Christophe Clemente says he is the best horse he has ever trained. Perhaps a horse that has a shot at pulling the upset is Grand Couturier. He had been tailing off in form lately until winning a stakes race in New York last out. It would take a big effort from him or any other horse for that matter to take down Gio Ponti. I don’t’ see it happening.

Win Willy shocked the racing world earlier this year when he won the Rebel Stakes at a big price. He will try to win his second graded stakes race this weekend in the Indiana Derby. He has raced just once since the Kentucky Derby, but has looked sharp in the morning. Misremembered, winner of the Swaps Stakes, is the likely favorite. Gone Astray will be favored in the Ohio Derby after romping in the Pennsylvania Derby. That race also includes Join In The Dance, runner up in the Pennsylvania Derby. Gone Astray probably could have won the Indiana Derby which has a much larger purse and I find myself wondering why he wasn’t entered there.

I’m a bit disappointed with the quality of the Hawthorne Gold Cup, but excited at the same time because Awesome Gem might be able to get a marquee win. The old gelding has been running strong lately, particular when switching to the dirt at Emerald Downs two races back. His best competition will come in the form of Turfway Park Fall Championship winner Nite Light. I hope that Night Lite sets a blistering pace and Awesome Gem is able to run him down in the late stages of the race.

This is one weekend of racing that you don’t want to miss. I had no problem at all writing over 1,000 words for this because there is SO MUCH happening this weekend. I probably didn’t say enough, but I digress. I’m looking forward to the Jockey Club Gold Cup the most. I hope Quality Road runs a great race like he is capable of doing. Who do you like in this weekends big races? Leave a comment and let me know what your thinking!