May 21, 2012

2011 Santa Anita Handicap Preview

The Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, once known as the hundred grander, is one of the finest races in all of thoroughbred racing. It iscontested at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles for four-year-olds and upward. Greats like Seabiscuit, Round Table, Ack Ack, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, John Henry, Alysheba, Tiznow and Lava Man are among those to grace the winners circle after the Big ‘Cap.

Let’s glance over the field and try to find the winner.

#1 Soul Candy- This will be the first time the gelded son of Birdonthewire races on a dirt track. He rallied from 15 lengths back to finish third beaten 2 1/4 lengths in the SunShine Millions Turf last out. Three races back he won the California Cup Classic. I love the way he always comes running even if the pace is slow. He gets in very light at 114 lbs and Garrett Gomez keeps the mount. Distance will be no concern as he won going 1 3/8 miles on the grass. I see a fast pace and if he takes to the dirt he could be tough to hold off in the stretch.

#2 Spurrier- Alonso Quinonez gets aboard for Bob Baffert. The son of Dixieland Band closed into a slow pace to be second behind Gladding last out in the San Antonio Handicap. He will get a much more favorable pace set up today, but I think he is a cut or two below the best horses in this race.

#3 Gladding- Winner of the San Antonio Handicap last out has been a different animal since joining the John Sadler barn. Rafael Bejarano decided to stay on the son of Sarava instead of Game On Dude or Setsuko. Look for him to be on or near the pace. Distance shouldn’t be a problem. He’s got a big shot here.

#4 Pode Ir- Faded last out after pressing the pace in the San Antonio Handicap. Would be a shock to see him win.

#5 Twirling Candy- The rock star of this race is a son of Candy Ride. He took his first Grade 1 event two races back when he nosed out Smiling Tiger in the Malibu. After that he easily won the Grade 2 Strub Stakes. Look for him to stalk the pace. I’m a bit skeptical as he has failed miserably in his only attempt against older horses. That probably wont be a problem here, but I’m willing to take a swing against anyway.

#6 Setsuko- Is he the same horse that finished second in the Santa Anita Derby? I don’t know. If he is, the extra furlong is really going to help him. Things could get heated up front and he comes from off the pace. He would have to run the race of his life to win. I don’t envision that happening, but if he still has some life in his legs he could pick up third.

#7 Quindici Man- His works have been a bit stronger. I like the 1:12 six furlong move on 2/25. He’s an outsider and will have to improve to run third of fourth.

#8 First Dude- This horse really makes me scratch my head. The colt has only won a single race, but has amassed earnings just shy of $900k due to a second place finish in the Preakness and third place finishes in the Belmont and Haskell. Perhaps he needed a race last out, but he really should have handled that field. I love the move to the Bob Baffert barn. Martin Garcia gets a leg up and I think that will work to his advantage. I told myself I wouldn’t bet him again until he gets a win under his belt, but he is definitely a nice colt.

#9 Tweebster- He’s getting better, but Twirling Candy already crushed him once. Of course, the same could have been said for Anthony’s Cross and Tapizar in the Sham, and that didn’t stop Anthony’s Cross from winning. Granted, Tapizar was rank and didn’t finish the race. For Tweebster to win, Twirling Candy would have to just not show up. Others rate higher.

#10 Aggie Engineer- His fan club was really filling up after he won the Native Diver Handicap and San Pasquel, but he failed to fire in the San Antonio last out when third behind Gladding and Spurrier. I’m concerned about the distance. He doesn’t want to go this far.

#11 Game On Dude- Love the name. The gelded son of Awesome Again is lightly raced and has the right to improve after winning off the shelf last out in an optional claiming event. Distance will be no problem. Jesus Velazquez gets the mount. He’s got a big shot here if he can move forward.

I’m going to make Soul Candy my top selection to win the Santa Anita Handicap. I love his closing move and he will get plenty of pace to chase. We know gets stronger as the race gets longer. The best thing about him though is his morning line price is a whopping 30-1. Garrett Gomez at 30-1 in a grade 1 race? Yea, give me some of that.

Who do you like?

Weekly Updates & Random Thoughts

It was an interesting weekend of horse racing. The Donn Handicap saw my top pick, Rule, finish third as Giant Oak stormed down the lane for the win. This really surprised me. I guess I will finally have to give Giant Oak the credit he deserves. The connections are considering a trip to Dubai. Morning Line was second after battling Square Eddie on the lead. He really proved to me that he can go the distance and I wont question that in the future.

Gladding Glides took his competition all the way in the San Antonio. The FL shipper set an easy pace and dug in when the time came. Bob Baffert’s Spurrier claimed the second spot. The favored Aggie Engineer disappointed, ending up third. All in all, I think this was a weak race. I will reserve judgement on Gladding Glides until a later date.

Turbulent Descent was unable to get past Zazu in the Las Virgenes. The big gray filly looked great in holding off her previously undefeated foe. Zazu is owned by Jerry and Ann Moss. They have been blessed with yet another star racehorse. Trainer John Sadler scored the win. I was a bit surprised that the filly isn’t with John Sheriffs.

In other news, it appears Belmont Stakes winner Drosselmeyer is getting ready for the Dubai World Cup. The WinStar crew is very happy with him and they say he is working well. As far as looks go, you won’t find many better than Drosselmeyer. The colt shines like a copper penny. Look for him to make his 2011 debut in the Grade 3 Mineshaft at Fair Grounds on 2/19.

I’m working hard on keeping the pages of this blog updated. I encourage checking out Free Horse Racing Picks, Kentucky Derby Contenders and Horse Rankings regularly. I’ve added three free picks for races at Gulfstream Park and Santa Anita Park for Thursday and Friday. I’m particularly excited about Serena Song’s son of Storm Cat, Stormberg. He should be a nice price as he tries to break his maiden under Joe Bravo.

As there were no major three-year-old races over the weekend my rankings of the Kentucky Derby Contenders was unaffected. I’m still very high on Rogue Romance. I’ve got him placed at #2, which is higher than virtually anyone else out there. If he wins the Kentucky Derby I can honestly say I was one of his very first supporters. Look for him to start his march to the Run for the Roses in the Risen Star at Fair Grounds.

The Horse Rankings page saw a few moves, mostly in the older horse division. Twirling Candy moved up to #3 after an impressive win in the Strub Stakes. After his victory in the Donn Handicap I have moved Giant Oak up to #6. He was previously unranked. SunShine Millions Classic winner Tackleberry fell from the rankings. Haynesfield and Successful Dan remain 1-2 in the older horse division. Kathmanblu became the top horse in my three-year-old filly division after Turbulent Descent couldn’t move past Zazu who is now #5 in the division.

What did you think of this past weekends races? Leave a comment and share your thoughts.

Dave in Dixie Belmont Stakes bound


It looks like John Sadler’s Dave in Dixie will be racing in the Test of Champions on June 5. Owner Ike Thrash made the decision to send the colt to the Belmont Stakes. He was last seen finishing 5th in the Grade 3 Illinois Derby.

John Sadler has had a hot stable of late, taking the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby, Grade 1 Arkansas Derby, and Grade 3 Derby Trial. Sadler is well known on the west coast and those on the east coast will soon know his name of they do not already. Some of his best runners include Hurricane Ike, Sidney’s Candy, Line of David, and Evita Argentina.

Dave in Dixie has flashed plenty of talent. He won first out and was then thrashed in his next start against graded company. He rallied to finish second behind Caracortado in the Robert Lewis Stakes earlier this year. It’s tough to say how he will fare against top competition in the Belmont Stakes. You  certainly have to think he is on the outside looking in.

Dave in Dixie is a son of Dixie Union and out of a Wavering Monarch mare. Distance shouldn’t be a problem. However, class could be. This colt hasn’t been able to truly answer the bell in stakes company. Jockey Calvin Borel will be an asset as he tries to do so in the Belmont Stakes. Borel is riding hot right now and he fits the colts  running style very well.

It would take a monumental effort for Dave in Dixie to win the Belmont Stakes. He could hit the board though. What do YOU think?