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One leg down, two to go; recapping the 2012 Kentucky Derby

May 8, 2012 By Leave a Comment
I'll Have Another

I'll Have Another

Bodemeister seemingly had the 2012 Kentucky Derby in his pocket turning for home under the Twin Spires, but it was I’ll Have Another who rallied down the lane to register the 1 ½ length score. It was a neck back to the hard charging Dullahan and ¾ of a length behind that one was Went The Day Well.

The top four finishers have exited the race in stellar condition and all except for Dullahan appear ready to tackle the Preakness Stakes on May 19. Other probables for the Preakness that are exiting the Derby include Creative Cause, Liaison, Hansen and Optimizer.

New shooters for the Preakness include Canonero II Stakes 1-2 finishers Pretension and Brimstone Island, 1-2 Derby Trial Stakes finishers Hierro and Paynter, Jerome Stakes winner The Lumber Guy and Arkansas Derby fourth place finisher Cozetti.

Mario Gutierrez & I’ll Have Another

This time last year jockey Mario Gutierrez was riding at Hastings in Canada’s British Columbia. Now, he is a Kentucky Derby winning jockey. Click here to read more about Gutierrez.

I’ll Have Another is a magnificent horse, but he largely won the Kentucky Derby because of a perfectly executed ride by Gutierrez. He had the horse in the perfect spot and didn’t lose much ground the entire way.

Equally important, he wasn’t stopped or impeded the entire way. Often times the Kentucky Derby is won by the best horse that gets the best trip. That is to take nothing away from this colt though. I’ll Have Another is beautifully bred and fresh; that means he will have at least a fighting chance to win the Triple Crown.

Team O’Neill  & J Paul Reddam

I remember back in 2008 when trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam hooked up to win the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland with a talented colt named Square Eddie. They had brought the Canadian bred colt home from England where he had been racing after being sold for $200k at the Keeneland September Sale.

He was dismissed at odds of 10-1, but Reddam and O’Neill knew what they had with the son of Smart Strike. They even referred to him as “Baby Curlin” in honor of the reigning Horse of the Year that was by the same sire. This is just one of several examples of success O’Neill and Reddam have had together.

Now they are Kentucky Derby winners. It’s great to see a group like this take the most important race in the world. I’ve always been a fan of Doug O’Neill as he trained one of my favorite horses, Lava Man. I wish them the best of luck moving forward and would love to see them bring home the Triple Crown.

Mike Smith’s ride

Many take issue with Smith allowing Bodemeister to run off to the lead and set grueling fractions of :45.39 and 1:09.80. His charge entered the stretch with a three length lead and almost stole the race on the front end.

Detractors say he should have tucked in behind Trinniberg and waited to make a move. While that may have produced a better result, there is really no way to know for sure. Smith thought he had the best horse, laid his cards down the table, and came up just a little short. I cant criticize him; he rode the colt brilliantly.

Bodemeister is probably the best horse of his generation and sadly he entered the race a bit short on experience. If he can run the same race in the Preakness then he will likely win that race.

Union Rags just isn’t that good

We screamed it from the rooftops before this race and we were right. Union Rags just isn’t a very fast horse. He entered the Kentucky Derby as perhaps the sixth or seventh fastest horse in the race and that’s about how he ran as he ended up finishing seventh.

Many will point to a bad ride from Julien Leparoux. It wasn’t the greatest ride ever, but we must remember that he was pinched at the beginning and from the inside he really had no chance to position the horse.

Let’s not judge rider or horse based on a single race. Even with that said, I still feel Union Rags is rated much too highly. I’m not saying he wont come back and win a big race or two, but he wasn’t among the top 3 or 4 sophomores before the Triple Crown and he wont be when it ends.

The connections will point to the Belmont Stakes, a race where I expect the colt to struggle once more. A son of Dixie Union going 12 furlongs? Yea; good luck with that.

Horse to watch? Went The Day Well

For as much deserved hype as Bodemeister is getting, Went The Day Well ran equally well. Take a look at what John Velazquez had to say about his trip.

JOHN VELAZQUEZ (Went the Day Well, fourth) – “We didn’t break out of there well and it was screwed up from there on. I was actually just beating Julien (Leparoux, Union Rags) into the first turn, so that’s how far back we were. The horse next to me clipped heels coming out of the gate, so now I’ve got to steady and go inside of him. We go to the first turn and he gets pushed over and I have to steady again. Now I’m far back with Julien. Now I have to go around the horse in the first turn, got outrun three-wide, went back to the inside, and I got a good trip from there, but I was so far back I couldn’t make up that much ground, no way, not on this kind of track the way it is today.”
Team Valor, John Velazquez and Graham Motion are proving to be one of the best teams in all of horse racing. They find themselves with a lightly raced colt that is bred to run all day long and should only get better from this point forward. You can say this about many horses in the history of the race, but with a better trip this colt would have been a Kentucky Derby winner. My gut instinct tells me he will end up a Preakness winner.

Alpha and Hansen can’t handle big crowds

Not yet, anyway. Both colts were quite worked up before the Kentucky Derby and likely lost all chance to win because of it. Hansen ended up ninth and Alpha was twelfth. The latter is going to get a little time off. The Belmont Stakes might be a logical spot for him. With his great stamina pedigree he would have a big shot of winning in that spot. Meanwhile, trainer Michael Maker and owner Kendall Hansen will make a decision on whether or not to send Hansen to the Preakness by the end of this week.

The 2012 Kentucky Derby has re-energized my passion for the Triple Crown. I have thought all along that this is the deepest and most contentious group of sophomores we have seen since 2007 and they proved me right. I look forward to watching the feats of speed that this group is sure to display in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

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Kendall Hansen: I’m not sure there is a horse out there that could beat Hansen.

March 30, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Hansen runs away in the Gotham Stakes

Hansen runs away in the Gotham Stakes

Northern Kentucky doctor Kendall Hansen isn’t worried about his Breeders’ Cup Juvenile champion Hansen. He thinks it’s the opposition that should be worried.

“He’s ready to run right now. At this point in time I’m not sure there is a horse out there that could beat him,” Hansen said. “Mike Maker wishes the Kentucky Derby was tomorrow. He isn’t worried about anyone else and that’s a great sign.”

The connections of the nearly white colt received an interesting invitation earlier this week. Gulfstream Park offered to send a private plane to pick up Hansen if the connections would be willing to run in the Florida Derby; a spot where he would have met rival Union Rags.

“That was unexpected, but definitely a great idea on their part,” said Hansen, who turned down the offer anyway. “Fans won’t have to wait long, though. If all goes to plan, then these colts are going to do battle again on May 5 at Churchill Downs.”

Hansen was last seen working five furlongs in 1:01.20 B over the training track at Churchill Downs. His Louisville base is just a hop, skip and a jump away from Keeneland where his next start will come in the Blue Grass Stakes. The original plan was to race in the Florida Derby and then the Wood Memorial before winding up on Kentucky’s premier preparatory race.

“In the end, we thought it was best to stay close to home,” Hansen said. “Things can go wrong when you ship long distances and it could take something out of him that might cause him to run less than his best race. Plus, we would like to race in front our hometown crowd before chasing the Roses.”

While the Kentucky Derby is the crown jewel of racing, it isn’t the end for Hansen — neither the horse nor his namesake owner — regardless of the outcome.

“There are so many possibilities with a horse like Hansen. He has the breeding to compete at the top level on the grass and I’ve definitely thought about a race like the Breeders’ Cup Mile or Turf for this year or even next,” the owner noted.

Jockey Ramon Dominguez suffered a collarbone injury on March 18, but is expected to be ready to ride Hansen in his next start in Keeneland’s Blue Grass Stakes on April 14. Dr. Hansen gave the highest of praise to his rider and noted that the horse is so sharp Dominguez couldn’t pull Hansen up after his last-out win in the Gotham Stakes.

“Ramon’s one of the best in the game. He has won the Eclipse Award for Outstanding Jockey in each of the last two years and also earned more money than any other jockey in that span. That sort of thing speaks for itself,” Hansen said.

“One of the reason’s why he is so good is his mental clock. Ramon can really sense when the pace is too slow or too fast and act accordingly. That could be a factor with our horse in the Kentucky Derby.”

Hansen indicated that if Dominguez suffers a setback, the most likely rider for Hansen would become John Velazquez.

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Kentucky Derby heavyweight contenders set for Fountain of Youth

February 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Algorithms

Algorithms

The Grade 2 $400k Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream Park|Race 11|Sunday) has been quite productive in recent years. Among its winners are great horses like Eskendereya, Quality Road, Scat Daddy, and Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. 2012 has produced a group with not one, but three horses capable of joining the ranks of the heralded horses above. Let’s break down the mile and sixteenth race!

Discreet Dancer (Discreet Dancer x West Side Dancer by Gone West), from the barn of Todd Pletcher, won his first two race by a combined 15 and a quarter lengths and was ridden out in both efforts. He’s got plenty of early sizzle and should be on or near the lead in this spot. John Velazquez gets the mount from JJ Castellano who gave up this ride, along with Union Rags, to stay on Algorithms.

This type of horse is so tough to get a read on. He’s clearly very talented, but has faced next to nothing thus far in his young career. Discreet Dancer could win this thing by a few lengths or get burned up on the front and finish fourth. This will be his first time going two turns and that isn’t easy for any horse to do; especially against graded stakes winners. I’m going to lean against him while acknowledging that he stands plenty of chance to make me look like an idiot.

Algorithms (Bernardini x Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance), another Todd Pletcher trainee, is a push button horse with a devastating turn of foot. That’s part of the reason why jockey JJ Castellano chose him over Union Rags. JJ is winning everything in sight right now and will give this one a great ride.

Like Discreet Dancer, this is his first time going two turns. That is countered by the fact that Algorithms is due for a peak effort racing third off the layoff. It’s tough to say how good he is, but I really love his running style and late kick. Bettors that back this colt are getting perhaps the best jockey going right now and a tremendously fast untested runner.

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I usually don’t like layoff horses in a race like this, but Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West) is a special case. The hulking colt stands 17 hands tall and has already proved he can run huge in a situation like this one. Trainer Michael Matz says the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner is as ready as he could possible be and the works are strong.

The setup of the race could work in favor of the versatile Union Rags. He can be near the pace or come from the back. It’s going to be interesting to see what new jockey Julien Leparoux decides upon. It could make the difference in winning and losing.

It’s tough to separate Discreet Dancer, Algorithms, and Union Rags. This could all come down to the decisions made by the jockeys. I’m going to go with Union Rags as my pick. He figures to sit the best trip behind the speed. Not only that, but he is the proven commodity. You wont get a huge price, but if you’re brave enough to single him on the Pick 4 or 5 it would make a huge difference.

Much is unknown heading into the Fountain of Youth, but a new Kentucky Derby favorite could emerge when the dust settles. Win or lose, this is the type of event that horse racing fans anticipate for days in advance. I cant wait to watch!

Plan to bet the Fountain of Youth Stakes? Do so at TVG  where new players get a $100 sign up bonus! Also, check out our Twitter page for great horse racing picks and thoughts.

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Freak filly ready to make first start for Team Valor International

January 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Team Valor Internationl

Team Valor International

In 2011 Team Valor International privately purchased a three-year-old filly named Summer Soiree that would go on to win three graded stakes races, capped by the Grade 1 Del Mar Oaks.

Table Three Ten could turn into the 2012 version of Summer Soiree for her Kentucky Derby winning connections. The daughter of El Prado won her debut going six furlongs at Fair Grounds by 5 ¼ lengths. She was geared down near the end. Team Valor quickly took notice and added her to their impressive roster. She’s put in three solid works for trainer Graham Motion since her big win. Now, she will take on first level optional claiming company at Gulfstream Park in race 6 on Friday. John Velazquez is listed to ride.

She looks to have her six foes over a barrel.

Her two best competitors are Polish Tune and Xunlei. The former is a first out maiden breaker for Todd Pletcher, hailing from from Calder Racecourse. The latter broke her maiden two back at Saratoga and has since finished third in an optional claiming race.

If Table Three Ten brings her maiden race she ought to thrash this group. I asked Graham Motion what he though on Twitter. Here is what he had to say. Admittedly, I didn’t get much from him.

GrahamMotion @GrahamMotion @gradedstakes will tell you more after Friday! She certainly was impressive first time out.

Bettors arent likely to get a very good price on Table Three Ten. If she were somehow to go off around 2-1, I’d consider it a slam dunk. Even money is more likely though. Regardless of whether or you have a bet down, she’s worth watching anyway. This could be the next big star in the three-year-old filly division.

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2011 Eclipse Award Selections

January 5, 2012 By 1 Comment
2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta

2010 Horse of the Year Zenyatta

2011 was a year of pure mediocrity, but we did see diamonds in the rough. Animal Kingdom ran off to win the Kentucky Derby; Havre de Grace beat the boys in the Woodward; and Hansen stayed undefeated in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. All three of those horses could potential be rewarded with horse racing’s versions of an Oscar; the Eclipse Award.

The Eclipse Awards ceremony has a bad reputation, but it could improve with ESPN’s Jeannine Edwards hosting the event this year. We can only hope so anyway. The ceremony has been dreadful to watch, but the awards are truly important.

Horse of the Year

2011 was a year of inconsistency, but Game on Dude provided the best resume and most consistent performances. The gritty gelding is my choice in this category. Check out this post from last month to learn why: 2011 Horse of the Year? Game On Dude.

Two-Year-Old Colt

The first time I saw Hansen in the past performances of the Kentucky Cup Juvenile, I thought to myself that I could beat this colt. He won that Turfway race by just over 13 lengths and was never challenged while leading from start to finish. I’m always one to be skeptical of stakes horses that haven’t done anything yet, but Hansen quickly won me over. He rewarded my confidence with a victory in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, once again leading from the beginning until the end. Keep in mind that Hansen has never been in any place but first at every point of his three races. His triumph on Championship Saturday means he ought to get the trophy. Others would pick Union Rags, but that one had a chance to run past him and couldn’t do it.

Two-Year-Old Filly

There isn’t much controversy here. My Miss Aurelia went a perfect four for four with wins in the Frizette and Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies. No other filly accomplished anything close to what she did. George Bolton and Stonestreet Stables get another trophy for their collection.

Three-Year-Old Male

There is an argument for Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom, but I’ve got to give the award to Caleb’s Posse. He was the only sophomore other than The Factor to win two Grade 1 races. Caleb’s Posse gave us one of the best races of 2011 when he ran down Uncle Mo on the wire in the King’s Bishop. He dispatched a strong field with a powerful late move in the Breeders’ Cup Dirt Mile and that put him over the top. He also owns wins in the Amsterdam Stakes, Ohio Derby and Smarty Jones Stakes.

Three-Year-Old Female

Royal Delta couldn’t always find her stride. She was a live wire blowing the competition away one race and finishing up the track in the next. That was only for part of the year as she found her best stride to win the Alabama Stakes and Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic. It’s Tricky and Plum Pretty both put together nice campaigns, but in the end, Royal Delta proved best of all.

Older Male Horse

Have to take Game On Dude by default as he is my choice for Horse of the Year. See above for my reasoning. Honorable mention to Met Mile winner Tizway.

Older Female Horse

Havre de Grace gave the competition a coup de grâce with her Woodward win. She also smashed a decent group in the Apple Blossom and gave us a thrilling runner up effort in the Delaware Handicap behind Blind Luck. Had that filly stayed right she might have given her a run for her money.

Sprinter

Caleb’s Posse never lost around a single turn and proved much the best against older horses in the Breeders’ Cup. Throw in a great win in the King’s Bishop and I’ve got to pick him over Breeders’ Cup Sprint winner Amazombie. That one didn’t have as good of a campaign prior to Championship Saturday and in my mind their wins offset. Therefore, Caleb’s Posse, with the better resume prior to the Breeders’ Cup, gets the award.

Female Sprinter

This is a tough division and really could be a coin flip. When my coin landed it told me that Sassy Image was the pick. She won the Humana Distaff and Princess Rooney, both Grade 1 races. She also took the Grade 3 Winning Colors Stakes. Hilda’s Passion, winner of the Ballerina, and Breeders’ Cup Filly & Mare Sprint winner Musical Romance also deserve big looks.

Male Turf Horse

When Cape Blanco came to America, the betting public overlooked him and instead made Gio Ponti a heavy favorite in the Man O’ War. Cape Blanco made them pay by registering an easy victory and won again in the Arlington Million next out. He completed the Grade 1 hat trick with a tough as nails victory in the Joe Hirsch Turf Classic. Others will argue with Acclamation, but that one faced much softer competition in California.

Female Turf Horse

Stacelita is going to be the favorite in this spot, but I prefer Never Retreat. She won five times in 2011 with all five wins coming in graded stakes company. That’s over twice as many wins as her main rival for this award. Never Retreat capped her season by dispatching a very strong field in Keeneland’s Grade 1 First Lady Stakes. She peppered in losses between her victories, but I appreciate the fact that Team Block got her to the races eleven times during her final campaign as a racehorse. She deserves it and I hope she gets it.

Outstanding Owner

There are a couple of ways you could go here, but the excellence of Team Valor International stands out in my eyes. Barry Irwin’s crew took America’s favorite race, the Kentucky Derby, along with other important races like the Del Mar Oaks, Ballston Spa Handicap and With Anticipation Stakes. They finished 10th in earnings while starting just 78 horses compared to an average of 365 for the rest of the top 10. On the year they won 16 total stakes races with nine of them being graded stakes races.

Outstanding Breeder

Ken and Sarah Ramsey had a splendid year thanks to their sire Kitten’s Joy. The Eclipse Award winning sire produced many great horses with perhaps the best being Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies champ Stephanie’s Kitten. On the whole, the Ramseys bred 13  black type winners and were topped only by Adena Springs who started nearly twice as many horses.

Outstanding Trainer

This is one of the easiest choices of all; Bill Mott. The trainer has won more races than anyone in the history of historic Churchill Downs. He added two more victories on Breeders Cup weekend when Royal Delta won the Breeders’ Cup Ladies Classic and Drosselmeyer fired past them all to take the Breeders’ Cup Classic. His 2011 win percentage of 17% is right with the best of them as are his earnings of $10,731,249. This will be his third time taking the award. The previous two wins came in 1995 and 1996.

Outstanding Jockey

2011 was the year of John Velazquez. He finished second in earnings at $18,622,964 while reaching the winners circle 248 times. Among those wins were nine Grade 1 victories like the Kentucky Derby, Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf, Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf and Clark Handicap. Like trainer Bill Mott, this will be the third Eclipse Award for Johnny V. He won previously in 2004 and 2005.

Outstanding Apprentice Jockey

Irad Ortiz won 151 races while contesting one of the toughest jockey colonies in America; New York. His mounts raked in $2,861,274. This guy is a serious rider and will blossom into one of the best in the business if he continues to progress. I will be watching him closely.

Who are your picks for horse racing’s version of the Academy Awards? Share your Eclipse Award picks below by leaving a comment!

**Join us at 8 PM EST as we live blog the Eclipse Awards!!**


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2011 With Anticipation Stakes

August 31, 2011 By 1 Comment

$150,000 is on the line Thursday at Saratoga in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes for two-year-olds going 8 ½ furlongs on the turf at Saratoga.

The race is likely to have Breeders Cup implications and you can expect to see the winner in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf later this year at Churchill Downs.

Captain Webb (English Channel x Miss Mary Pat by Service Strip) has been tabbed the 3-1 morning line favorite after a flashy maiden win going the same distance as today’s race over the same track. The second place finisher in that race, Daddy Nose Best, returned to win next out against a strong group. He is owned by James Scatuorchio (he also owned the English Channel) and trained by Todd Pletcher. Not surprisingly, John Velazquez is listed to ride.

He was bet to favoritism in the debut for obvious reasons like wonderful turf breeding, top notch connections and a blazing :59 B turf move going five furlongs. He didn’t disappoint that time, but this will be a much tougher group. My natural tendency is to try to beat the favorite, but that may be tough to do in this spot.

State of Play (War Front x Valeta by Procida) probably rates the best chance to upset at 5-1. He races for Team Valor International and is trained by Graham Motion. His debut resulted in a strong win over a good field at the Spa going 5 ½ furlongs on the grass. Ramon Dominguez will be in the irons and it is likely he will put the colt on the lead.

Another interesting option is Optimizer (English Channel x Indy Pick by AP Indy) who races for D Wayne Lukas and owner Bluegrass Hall. His maiden win came against a good field at first asking. I love the way he finished up in the lane and he should have plenty of room to move forward. Robby Albarado will keep the mount.

Like I said before, it’s going to be hard to get away from the chalk here. The other two I mentioned are worth a look though.

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2011 Bernard Baruch Handicap Preview

August 22, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 2 Bernard Baruch Handicap is for three-year-olds and upward going 9 furlongs on the grass at Saratoga. Notable winners include 1994 victor Lure who twice won the Breeders Cup Mile, Yagli who won the United Nations and Manhattan in the year following his win in this race and 2004 Breeders Cup Mile winner Artie Schiller.

2010 Bernard Baruch winner Get Stormy is back to defend his crown against 10 other horses. Let’s take a look at the field.

#1 Interaction (Easing Along x Inter Rails by Ride The Rails): Globe trotting Argentinian bred didn’t quite have it last out in the Arlington Handicap where he tracked the leader in second, but faded to eighth at the finish. He hasn’t won since leaving his native Argentina in 2009 so it’s hard to see him doing so in this spot. Cornelio Velasquez will ride for trainer Christophe Clement.

#2 Turallure (Wando x Personal Allure by Wekiva Springs): He was compromised by a slow pace last out in the Four Star Dave where he ended up fifth. Before that he won the Opening Verse at Churchill Downs by a length over Tajaweed. The Charles Lopresti trainee could be tough at this distance if he gets some fractions to chase. Julien Leparoux is back aboard. He rode him to victory in the aforementioned Opening Verse.

#3 Paris Vegas (Maria’s Mon by Tell Seattle by AP Indy): Trainer Thomas Voss is a solid horseman, but 0 for 15 at the meet. This horse doesn’t look good enough to get him off the snide.

#4 Beau Choix (Elusive Quality x Belle Cherie by Belong To Me) Well bred colt appears to be figuring things out. Two back he won a minor stakes race at Belmont Park in a good time over Pocket Cowboys. Last out he was third in the Four Star Dave, a race that was pretty much a merry go round. He will have to move forward, but is clearly a threat for trainer Barclay Tagg and rider Jose Lezcano.

#5 Baryshnikov (Empire Maker x Ski Dancer by Baldski) Former claimer has really turned around for trainer Mike Maker. He has fallen short in his last two races at 8 and 8.5 furlongs, but figures to move up at a distance where he posted a career best BRIS figure of 105 in late May. He has ran several races which say he can win here. Corey Lanerie is set to pilot the horse.

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#6 Boots Ahead (Storm Boot x Mostbeautifulsound by Miswaki) Hard trying gelding won an optional claimer last out. Before that he was a close third behind Beau Choix and Pocket Cowboys in a minor stakes race. He runs well more often than not, but this will be a big class test for the George Weaver trained Eddie Castro ridden entry.

#7 Blues Street (Street Cry x Capote Blues by Capote) Raced evenly last out in the Fourstardave where he was fifth. He didn’t have much of a shot that day due to slow pace and a vastly superior horse setting that slow pace in the form of Sidney’s Candy. He figures to get a much better pace setup this time and is as good as anyone in the race. Recent efforts where he was second by a nose to Little Mike in a Grade 3 at Gulfstream and a win in an optional claimer at Belmont say he can win this. Kent Desormeaux picks up the mount for Todd Pletcher.

#8 Hymn Book (Arch x Vespers by Known Fact) Shug McGaughey trained gelding was a distant second to one of the best older horses in the land in the Suburban last out, Flat Out. Before that he won the Three Coins Up Stakes over 2009 Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge. Three of his five lifetime wins have been on the sod and he also owns a win at the distance. He looks like a horse that is improving and that makes him deadly. John Velazquez will be in the irons.

#9 Loup Breton (Anabaa x Louve by Irish River) Grade 2 winner just doesn’t seem to have it anymore. Don’t count him out though. He picks up a hot jockey in JJ Castellano and he does have Pletcher in his corner. The man has been known to turn a horse or two around in the past.

#10 Moryba (Hard Buck x Valetza by Baronius) Bill Mott trained horse was second to Sidney’s Candy last out, but it’s hard to give any credence to that race because they ran 1-2 the entire way and set glacial fractions. He could jump up and run big here, but I’m leaning against. I just don’t think he is good enough.

#11 Get Stormy (Stormy Atlantic x Foolish Gal by Kiri’s Clown) Won the Grade 1 Makers Mark Mile and Woodford Reserve Turf Classic before fading in the Monmouth Stakes last out. He figures to get an easy lead with Ramon Dominguez and for that reason he rates a strong chance to be a repeat winner of this race.

My top pick to win the 2011 Bernard Baruch Handicap is Hymn Book. He will get seven pounds on the favorite and should be tracking close behind him. Look for him to blast off for the win turning for home. To get more Saratoga picks for Friday as well as into the future check out our Saratoga Picks page. Also, please consider playing the race at Twin Spires where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!

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Betting the Monmouth’s Continental Mile

August 18, 2011 By Leave a Comment

 

The Continental Mile is a one mile turf race for two-year-olds at Monmouth Park worth $65k. Last year’s winner Rustler Hustler hasn’t turned out to be much of a horse, but the 2011 field has great potential.

Wes Ward’s gelding Black Rhino (El Corredor x Foreign Aid by Danzig) looks to be the pacesetter. He was last seen setting the fractions for Overdriven in the Sanford Stakes before fading to be fourth beaten 7 ½ lengths. Before that he broke his maiden by 8 on the Churchill Downs turf course going five furlongs. Quite an emphatic win! Robby Albarado will ride and he figures to be tough to beat here after firing a :58 3/5 H work at Aqueduct on Wednesday.

Finale (Scat Daddy x Twinkle by Live One) will have plenty of support for trainer Todd Pletcher. He broke his maiden last out going six furlongs on the grass at Belmont and did so by 5 ¾ lengths under only hand urging from John Velazquez. Joe Bravo picks up the mount as Johnny V has several high quality mounts at Saratoga on Saturday. I have to view this as a negative, but in the end it shouldn’t keep you from betting the horse if you like him.

I will make my pick Team Valor International’s filly Visionaria (Byron x Fine Lady by Selkirk). She ships in after a win last out in Milan and owns a record of 2 wins from 3 lifetime starts. Graham Motion is doing very well all around at the moment and has had plenty of success bringing horses in from overseas. I’m hoping this lass can best the boys under his tutelage.  Jose Valdivia will be the pilot aboard the filly.

If you plan to bet the Continental Mile please check out our Horse Betting page for information on where to play. Also, consider checking out the virtual horse racing version of the event by visiting our Horse Racing Games page!

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Animal Kingdom set to conquer Triple Crown after romping in Kentucky Derby

May 8, 2011 By Leave a Comment

I knew when I saw the crawling fractions that my pick, Dialed In, had little to no shot of winning the 137th running of the Kentucky Derby at Churchill Downs. Those slow fractions didn’t stop Animal Kingdom though as he proved to be much the best while rallying past Nehro in the stretch for a 2 3/4 length score. The son of Leroidesanimaux covered the 10 furlongs distance in 2:02.04 for jockey John Velazquez and trainer Graham Motion as a record crowd of 164,858 looked on.

The next step for Animal Kingdom will be the second jewel of the Triple Crown, the Preakness Stakes from Pimlico Racecourse.

“I’m pretty sure we’re going to do it, but I want to talk about it,” Irwin said.  “I’m a careful guy, so let’s see how he’s doing.  I think if you’ve got a horse that’s amazing, you can go for the Preakness.   But your regular, average Derby winner has a real tough time coming back.

Regardless of what Irwin or any of the connections say it is hard to think the colt wont wheel back in the Preakness Stakes. There is just too much money and glory in winning the race for them not to at least try. Barring illness or injury Animal Kingdom will be in the Preakness Stakes. He will have a big time chance to win the thing too.

There were only a handful of colts in the Kentucky Derby with big time potential. Animal Kingdom was one of them and he proved he will be one of the best colts in the country this year with his dominating finish. Make no mistake, although he paid $43 to win, he was easily the best horse.

How ironic that jockey John Velazquez would go from the best horse in Uncle Mo to the new king of the division in Animal Kingdom. You have to feel bad for Robby Albarado though. If you have been living in a cave and aren’t aware of the situation, Albarado was injured last week and the ownership of Animal Kingdom, Team Valor International, didn’t think he was up to riding. They were absolutely wrong though as Robby put in a great ride to win the Grade 1 Humana Distaff earlier in the day at Churchill.

I’m not happy. Barry Irwin decided he didn’t think I was fit to ride; he didn’t know my status or situation.

 

Both Johnny V and Team Valor say they will do something to make it right, but I don’t think they can. Taking a guy off a KentuckyDerby winner is something you can’t make up. I hope Animal Kingdom wins the Triple Crown, however unlikely that is, but it would be poetic justice to see Albarado nip them in the Belmont Stakes.

Speaking of the Belmont Stakes, Barry Irwin (owner of Team Valor), really likes the chances of his colt to do well there.

“The Belmont is the kind of race that this horse is bred to win, let’s face it,” Irwin said.

I’ll root for any Kentucky Derby winner not named Mine That Bird to complete the sweep. Let’s hope Animal Kingdom is the one.

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Uncle Mo & Stay Thirsty work in company for Kentucky Derby

May 1, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Earlier this year I did a post called “Buy or Sell: Uncle Mo”. At the end of the post I told you I couldn’t make up my mind without more data. Two races and multiple works later I still hadn’t decided. Now, after his final Kentucky Derby work, I can tell you that I am selling on Uncle Mo.

The son of Indian Charlie out of the Arch mare Playa Maya worked five furlongs over a sloppy track with stable mate Stay Thirsty in 1:01 3/5 this morning. Internal fractions of :12 4/5, :25 2/5, :37 1/5, and :49 1/5 were recorded as was a six furlong gallop out in 1:14 1/5 and seven in 1:28.

When looking at Kentucky Derby works I want a horse that really blows me away and looks like he is on tilt. To me,  this is a sign of a horse that is prepared to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby. That is why I went with Hard Spun in 2007 after he posted a :57 4/5 B five furlong bullet. The Larry Jones colt ran a heck of a race and ended up second at 10-1 behind a horse with an equally good work of :58 B.  That horse, as you probably know, was Street Sense.

Uncle Mo won the Breeders Cup Juvenile just like Street Sense. Unfortunately for trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey John Velazquez and owner Mike Repole that is likely where their similarities will end.  Nothing about his latest work tells me Uncle Mo will rebound and win the Kentucky Derby. It just wasn’t impressive at all.

The risk of taking him now far outweighs the potential reward. I would need 10-1  to bet this colt and he will be much closer to 5 or 6-1. Combine these unimpressive works with the fact that he is recovering from a GI tract infection and he becomes even less attractive.

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