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Kentucky Derby Contenders: Dialed In

April 20, 2011 By 1 Comment

Dialed In (Mineshaft x Miss Doolittle by Storm Cat)

Trainer: Nick Zito

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

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In sprint races there is very little room for error. Dialed In debuted at the sprint distance of six and a half furlongs at Churchill Downs. Fans bet him to favoritism against 11 other colts and he won after missing the break, blowing the first turn, racing wide and navigating through traffic. Trainer Nick Zito and anyone with a pair of eyes knew that Dialed In was going to be very special from the beginning. Click here to watch that race. I highly encourage you to do so if you haven’t already.

After his maiden breaking score the connections entered him in an allowance a little under three months later. The field was strong and included future Fountain of Youth Stakes winner, Soldat. Nick Zito had a change of heart before the race and scratched, revealing that he preferred to take on the Holy Bull Stakes instead. In that race he rallied from as far back as 15 lengths to take down the likes of Mucho Macho Man, Sweet Ducky and Gourmet Dinner. It looked like he had no chance at the half mile pole, but Dialed In made a furious move around the turn and into the stretch for a 1 1/2 length victory in the one turn mile race.

The horse racing world was buzzing over Dialed In after that win. Everyone loved him, but a big question remained. Where would he race next? At this point he had just two races and needed another one between then and the Florida Derby. I thought the Tampa Bay Derby would have been a good spot, but Nick Zito opted for an allowance optional claiming race against older horses that drew just 4 other entries. Ironically, it was Zito’s other horse, Equestrio, that won the race. The band wagon cleared significantly after that loss. Regular visitors of this site know that I was one of the few that didn’t panic. Read my post race thoughts for that one by clicking here.

Next up for Dialed In was the Florida Derby where I made him my top selection to win. The field included stars like Soldat, To Honor And Serve, Stay Thirsty and Flashpoint. It was the up and coming Shackleford that proved the greatest challenge though. Making his typical late move, Dialed In inched past the long shot to take the prestigious Grade 1 race by a head. The win was impressive in my eyes as he raced against a heavy early speed bias. Some will cite a slow final furlong, but I think they are losing sight of what really matters. He won the race and he did it in just his fourth career start and against the aforementioned heavy track bias.

Going the Kentucky Derby distance of 10 furlongs will be no problem for Dialed In. His daddy was a winner in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Woodward Stakes. He has produced route horses such as Travers runner up Fly Down, Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Redding Colliery, Greenwood Cup winner A. U. Miner and fellow 2011 Kentucky Derby contender and Arkansas Derby second place finisher Nehro. His mare, Miss Doolittle, was a two time winner sprinting and finished third in the Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga. Her half brother, Country Song, placed going 7  furlongs on the turf in the Chesham Stakes. Distance will be absolutely fine and probably an advantage for him.

Normally I like a horse with some speed, but in the Kentucky Derby that isn’t true. Closers have done very well in recent years with two of last years top four finishers rallying from 19th and 20th and the other two coming from 6th and 13th. Since 2005 three of the winners have rallied from 18th or further back ( Mine That Bird, Street Sense, Giacomo). Dialed In has the best closing kick of any contender and could be moving best of all in the late stages of the race.

The fact that this colt is so lightly raced is both a good and bad thing. It is good because there is plenty of room for him to get better, but bad because he hasn’t got much time to do it. Luckily, Dialed In is already incredibly fast and skilled with just five races under his belt. Owner Robert Lapenta, jockey Julien Leparoux, trainer Nick Zito and a legion of fans are hoping his sixth race will be the best of all.

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Kathmanblu looks to reaffirm herself in the Keeneland’s Ashland Stakes

April 8, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Kathmanblu was at the top of her division after she romped home by 8 lengths in the Grade 2 Goldenrod Stakes at Churchill Downs. Since then Plum Pretty has emerged with a 25 length win in the Sunland Oaks. R Heat Lightning won the Gulfstream Oaks as fas you can throw a rock while in hand. Joyful Victory took the Honeybee Stakes by 9 lengths. Things are getting pretty heated in the three-year-old filly division!

Winning this weekend’s Ashland Stakes at Keeneland would likely help Kathmanblu reassert herself at the top of the hill. The daughter of Bluegrass Cat hasn’t raced since winning the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds on February 19. That win came as a very heavy favorite and she had to work harder for it than I expected. However, she is allowed to have an off day and winning a stakes race by 1 1/4 lengths on an off day is better than 99% of horses can manage.

Kathmanblu boasts strong works and her most recent move was a :59 B five furlong bullet at Gulfstream. The thing that makes me scratch my head as she tries to win her fourth race in a row is that jockey Julien Leparoux took the mount on another filly, Dancinginherdreams. I didn’t see that coming. I think it is clear that Kathmanblu is the better of the two, but maybe Leparoux knows something that we do not. Alan Garcia gets the mount for the Ashland and likely into the future.

The aforementioned Dancinginherdreams is the biggest threat to Kathmanblu. She was most recently seen finishing behind R Heat Lightning in the Davona Dale 7 1/4 lengths back in second. Before that she was beaten 3/4 of a length in the Forward Gal. Her other two races are a maiden win over this track by 5 lengths and a 5 length score in the Pocahontas Stakes. The John Ward trainee tried getting a bit closer to the pace last out. It’s hard to say how that worked out because she didn’t win, but I highly doubt anyone was beating R Heat Lightning that day. It will be interesting to see if Leparoux tries getting closer again or drops further off the pace which was her style in her previous races. Dancinginherdreams is clearly the second best horse here behind Kathmanblu and it would be no surprise to see her get back on track with a win.

Wyomia and Delightful Mary pose the biggest threat to the top two choices in this race. Wyomia won the Mazarine Stakes at 2 before flopping in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her first race of the year was a strong win in the Sun Coast Stakes which was her first try on the dirt. Delightful Mary finished third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Her 2011 debut was a win against three other fillies in the $100k OBS Championship Stakes which was a non wagering event. Of the two I like Wyomia a bit more as she looks to be on the way up after her last win.

The final horse of note in this race is Bouquet Booth. She probably only has a punchers chance, but that is a chance nonetheless. A winner of the Delta Downs Princess Stakes and the Silverbulletday Stakes, this daughter of Flower Alley will likely show speed from the rail. She is a cut below the best here in terms of talent, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her take them all the way on the lead. Robby Albarado gets the mount for the first time.

To recap I am going with the favored Kathmanblu in the Ashland Stakes. Who is YOUR pick?

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Dialed In’s riveting last to first move in Florida Derby has me believing

April 6, 2011 By 1 Comment

Dialed In did what I predicted he would when he rallied from last place to take the Florida Derby on Sunday. The son of Mineshaft covered the 9 furlongs distance in 1:50.07 and beat second place finisher Shackleford by a head.

The win was vindicating as he suffered his first defeat in his previous race which was against older horses in optional claiming company. Click here to see the chart for the win. The victory was very impressive and allowed him to hold his spot at #2 in our Kentucky Derby Contender rankings.

After the win Dialed In dropped to odds of 5-1 in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This made him the solid second choice behind 3-1 favorite Uncle Mo. The trainer of that horse, Todd Pletcher, was not impressed by Dailed In’s victory. He cited a faster time by his filly, R Heat Lightning, going the same trip the previous day.

I don’t believe that is a fair judgment of Dialed In. Times are nearly meaningless in my eyes and I would much rather focus on the fact that he rallied from far back on one of the most speed favoring tracks in the country. Not only that, but he did it against the deepest field of three-year-olds assembled thus far in 2011.

We must remember that this colt was making just his fourth career start. The potential for growth is nearly limitless. The fact that he is lightly raced is both good and bad. Good for the aforementioned reason, but bad because the time he has to realize that potential grows smaller by the day.

I’ve got no doubt that reaching the apex of his talent before the Kentucky Derby is possible. After all, this is a horse that missed the break, blew the first turn, rallied greenly down the lane and STILL won at first asking against a full field at Churchill Downs. The fact that he could overcome all that trouble going 6.5 furlongs really says something about how magnificent this colt truly is. Let’s not forget he also came back from that win to take the Holy Bull from 15 lengths off the pace!

This colt is in great hands with trainer Nick Zito, a two time Kentucky Derby winning trainer (Strike The Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994). Jockey Julien Leparoux hasn’t taken the Roses yet in his young career, but I count him among the most capable in the country. He does especially well with late running types like Dialed In. Zito nearly won the Kentucky Derby with last year’s Florida Derby winner, Ice Box. That horse wasn’t half the horse that Dialed In is at this point. Nick Zito was a bundle of emotions after his colt’s win and he told the media that is a very special horse. Thanks Mr. Zito, I had no idea by watching him on the track.

Late running colts do very well in the Kentucky Derby and Dialed In may be prove himself to be king of the closers on the First Saturday in May.

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2011 Florida Derby Preview

April 1, 2011 By 7 Comments

The Florida Derby is perhaps the best prep race available for the Kentucky Derby. The purse is fat at $1,000,000, the distance is perfect at 9 furlongs and the 5 weeks away from the Run for the Roses is excellent timing. The last winner in the Kentucky Derby that the Florida Derby produced was Big Brown. Before that it was the awe inspiring Barbaro. Ice Box, winner of the 2010 Florida Derby, nearly took the Roses, but finished second after a horrid trip. His trainer, Nick Zito, is back for another shot.

Zito is going for a second win in a row here with Dialed In. The colt is ranked #2 on our Kentucky Derby Contenders list. Robert Lapenta owns both Ice Box and Dialed In. The latter was last seen finishing second against older horses in optional claiming company. That was his first loss in three tries. The trip in that race wasn’t the best and I’m not going to let it influence my opinion of him. Dialed In is without a doubt one of the best three-year-olds out there.

Julien Leparoux is the pilot for Dialed In. I love the Frenchman’s style and expect him to work out the perfect trip for the son of Mineshaft. Dialed In has been working very strongly and has produced two bullets (:59 4/5 B 1/13 and :47 2/5 B 1/19) at Palm Meadows since his last race. We can be sure that the connections are bringing everything here to try and win this race. If he does so he will lock up a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby.

The raw talent I saw when Dialed In won the Holy Bull was like nothing I’ve ever seen before. He was so green and so far back that I thought he had no chance. He proved me wrong by blowing the doors off his competition late in the race. What is going to happen when this guy learns how to be a racehorse? If he puts together his best race here none of his foes stand a chance. I’ll make him my top selection at 2-1.

Although I like Dialed In a lot here, that doesn’t mean he is a cinch. Bill Mott’s colt To Honor And Serve looks primed for a strong effort after fading to be a well beaten third in the Fountain of Youth behind today’s favorite, Soldat. Before that race he was the victor in the Remsen Stakes at this distance. He is a big and strong colt that should get better with time. Look for his pedigree as a son of Bernardini to shine in the races with more distance. Garrett Gomez will get the mount from John Velazquez because the connections are worried about the latter’s availability in the Kentucky Derby. I really feel like To Honor And Serve is ready to run a top race and his morning line price of 4-1 is very enticing. Don’t leave him out.

The Repole Stable owned and Todd Pletcher trained Stay Thristy is the Rocky Balboa of the race. That is to say he has got a big chance here, but certainly isn’t one of the top picks. “Thirsty” as fans like to call him was last seen winning the Gotham Stakes. He raced wide there before bursting clear to a 3 1/4 length win as the 4-5 favorite. I like that effort given he hadn’t raced since the Breeders Cup Juvenile and his trip was less than desirable. Todd Pletcher opts to throw the blinkers on here and that will be a good move as it should give him more focus. Ramon Dominguez stays on and you know he isn’t giving up a days worth of mounts at Aqueduct to mess around. Stay Thirsty has a chance here at 8-1. He has to be included on deeper tickets.

Flashpoint looks like the pacesetter at 6-1 after winning the Hutcheson by 7 1/4 lengths over Travelin Man. That win was impressive, but I’m skeptical about his chances here. This is his first try around two turns and I don’t think the field he beat last out was very good. He is working well and Richard Dutrow has won this race before. I don’t like him to perform well here, but his presence is important nonetheless as he will ensure a fast pace.

Right behind that fast pace will be 9-5 favorite Soldat. Ranked at #4 on the Kentucky Derby Contenders list, Soldat has a big shot here. However, I think he is worth taking a swing against at such a prohibitive price. We have to remember that he has already locked up his spot in the Kentucky Derby. This means jockey Alan Garcia isn’t going to try overly hard with him to win here if it turns out that Soldat ends up in a dog fight or simply needs a little pushing. Remember, the goal for the connections of theses horses is to have their horses peak in their NEXT race. Winning the Kentucky Derby is goal #1 for Soldat. The Florida Derby would be a nice feather in the cap, but it is merely secondary at this point.

So to review I like Dialed In as my top selection to win the 2011 Florida Derby with a big look to To Honor And Serve. Stay Thirsty is a live long shot. Who do you like? Leave a comment and be heard!

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The Smartest Man in the Jockeys’ Room

March 21, 2011 By 10 Comments

There is nothing quite like the feeling of watching a horse loose on the lead reeling out slow fractions before kicking off to a win. This feeling only comes when you bet that horse though. If you are any other horse panic rises up in your chest as you realize your charge is too far back and wont be able to catch the lone speed. The same panic comes when a horse goes too wide or catches trouble entering the stretch.

In many cases the chances of experiencing this feeling can be removed by playing horses that have razor sharp smart jockeys on their back. Capable journeyman riders are in short supply these days and even the most experienced rider makes a bonehead move from time to time. However, if you stick with these riders you will be in great hands.

#1 Patrick Valenzuela- The 49 year old Montrose, Colorado native rides with ice in his veins and is one of the most fearless people in the entire industry. Nicknamed P-Val, this jockey has a ferocious personality that matches his style on the track. Patrick has the smarts to do the little things that will win races. He won’t force speed to rate and he doesn’t wait too long to pounce.

His best ride, or at least my personal favorite, was the 1989 Preakness Stakes. P-Val rode Kentucky Derby winner Sunday Silence to perfection in the Preakness Stakes. He masterfully took the lead turning for home with champion Easy Goer to his inside. Easy Goer reclaimed the lead, but P-Val had saved enough to horse retake the lead all while pinning Easy Goer to the rail. This genius ride was one of many from a jockey that has won races seven Breeders Cup races and two Triple Crown races. Other wins include the Santa Anita Handicap (twice), Santa Anita Derby (twice), Met Mile, Kentucky Oaks and the Hollywood Gold Cup. Click here to watch his 1989 Preakness win.

#2 Garrett Gomez- They say to be the best you have to beat the best and that is what Garrett Gomez and Blame did in the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic when they beat Zenyatta, arguably the greatest mare to ever step on any racetrack. Gomez timed his ride perfectly and made it to the front with just enough time to spare before the hulking super mare nearly ran Blame down. The jockey did this all while battling a shoulder injury.

Another great ride came in the 2007 Haskell Invitational when he rode the rail on Any Given Saturday before taking over in the stretch for a 4 1/2 length win. This was a special ride because in my mind the horse wasn’t as good as Hard Spun or Curlin, both whom he  beat in that race. Not just that, but the strategy employed was great as he timed the ride perfectly and saved ground. Nicknamed GoGo he has won 12 Breeders Cup races and events like the Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, Jockey Club Gold Cup and the Travers Stakes. The smarts and tactics that Gomez employs have played a huge role in making him one of the best jockeys in America.

#3 Julien Leparoux- I remember watching him for the first time at Turfway Park. He absolutely dominated the place. The Frenchman won so many races it was almost like he was putting on a race riding clinic. Leparoux is effective on the lead, but is better when he lets his mounts lag behind and pounce late. He never panics and that is one of the best things about him. When panic happens so do bad things. Leparoux is arguably the best grass rider in the entire country and by default the world. Although he is just 27 years old he has already won five Breeders Cup races. My favorite Leparoux ride was in the 2009 Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. He broke his mount, She Be Wild, third and waited for the right time to make a move. When the time came he had no room on the rail. Leparoux did what he is famous for though; he waited! It paid off as the rail opened up and She Be Wild burst through for a 3/4 length win. This victory is the epitome of a smart ride. Click here to watch it.

#4 Martin Garcia- Although he is young this guy can ride with anyone and his decision making skills are top flight. He proved his by guiding 39-1 shot Champagne d’Oro to victory in the 2010 Acorn Stakes. He broke her to the lead from the 12 hole and rationed her speed perfectly. Garcia never panicked when Buckleupbuttercup made a move for him and waited until exactly the right time to ask his mount for her best stuff when Amen Hallelujah launched her bid. Another great example of his riding ability came when he rode Lookin At Lucky to an enormous win in the Preakness Stakes. Garcia has been riding horses since he was a boy, but didn’t become a jockey until he came to the US. He cut his teeth as a jockey against Russell Baze at Golden Gate Fields. Martin Garcia doesn’t panic, he doesn’t get nervous and he always gives his best. His smarts combined with great decision making will allow him to one day be inducted to the Thoroughbred Racing Hall of Fame. Click here to watch his 2010 Acorn win.

#5 Ramon Dominguez- Has there ever been a more dominant rider in New York? Maybe so, but Ramon Dominguez is as at least as good as anyone else to ride there regularly. If you want examples of his smart moves just watch him on any given day. Dominguez really moves his mounts up. He can ride well on or off the pace and always has a shot. His best wins came in the 2004 Breeders Cup Turf (Better Talk Now) and the 2004 Wood Memorial (Tapit). Both were strong rides, but it should be noted that he was nearly disqualified after bumping  Kittens Joy in the Breeders Cup Turf. Dominguez won his first Eclipse Award in 2010 and has several strong prospects as he seeks his first Kentucky Derby win. He was second aboard Bluegrass Cat at 30-1 in 2006. Riding that long shot to a second place finish is a testament to his riding ability. Click here to watch his Wood Memorial win.

So there you have it! The above riders are my top 5 active jockeys in terms of smarts/race riding ability. Check back later for my top 5 retired jockeys. Who do you like? Do you disagree with any of my picks or feel I have left someone out? Leave a comment and speak your mind!

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Free Video Selection: Smart Seattle in the Hilltop Stakes

May 11, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Black-Eyed Susan day is full of great races. One of those races is the $70k Hilltop Stakes. I like Smart Seattle to take the race under Julien Leparoux for Graham Motion. Watch the video to find out why. If you would like picks for all of this weekends stakes action, including the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes, and Preakness Stakes, click here!

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