Don’t write off Keeneland’s Grade 1 Blue Grass Stakes as just another meaningless Poly Track event. The race hasn’t been effective as a Kentucky Derby prep since it produced 2007 winner Street Sense, but with a star studded field of 13 lined up to compete for the $750k purse this could be the year that all changes. The 9 furlong race is number 11 on a 12 race card for Saturday.
Breaking from the inside is Heavy Breathing (Giant’s Causeway x Takesmybreathaway by Gone West) for trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Corey Lanerie. Regular rider JJ Castellano has accepted the mount on Howe Great, who was previously ridden by John Velazquez, who will be at Oaklawn to ride Stat in the Arkansas Derby. Heavy Breathing enters this race after fading to third last out in the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes where he set the pace. It was his first try in graded stakes company after winning his first two races at Gulfstream Park. He is listed at 12-1.
Gung Ho (Kitten’s Joy x Glory Dancer by Honour and Glory) last raced on the Spiral Stakes undercard in a race known as the Rushaway Stakes where he was second by a ½ length to a monster colt named Flashy Dresser. That race produced the 2007 Blue Grass Stakes winner Dominican. Trained by Michael Maker, this colt competed at Keeneland as a juvenile in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Futurity Stakes. He was seventh that day, but looks to have improved considerably in the six months that have passed. His works are sharp and he’s got more than a puncher’s chance at the juicy price of 30-1.
Prospective (Malibu Moon x Spirited Away by Awesome Again) races for noteworthy owner John Oxley and trainer Mark Casse. The 10-1 shot will be piloted by Luis Contreras. The colt was last seen rallying from sixth to score a ¾ length win in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. Before that, he came up short in the Grade 3 Sam F. Davis Stakes. He was a two time winner on synthetic surfaces as a juvenile, taking a seven furlong maiden and the 8 ½ furlong Grade 3 Grey Stakes, both at Woodbine.
Competing from the fourth slot is the imposing 6-5 favorite, Hansen (Tapit x Stormy Sunday by Sir Cat). The champion juvenile won the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile last year before debuting second in the Grade 3 Holy Bull Stakes as a sophomore. Many were forecasting his downfall after that, but he delivered a resolute win in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes, a race where he raced without blinkers and rallied from behind horses for the first time. The colt is reportedly on edge and owner Kendall Hansen was quoted saying the horse cannot be beaten right now. We shall see; the favorite hasn’t won the Blue Grass since Peace Rules did it in 2003. Trainer Mike Maker won this race in 2010 with Stately Victor.
Racing for new trainer Gennadi Dorrochenko and jockey Miguel Mena is Russian Greek (Giant’s Causeway x Sand Dollar by Grindstone). The colt was last seen competing in the Spiral Stakes where he was eighth after never really picking up his feet. New connections might shake the California Derby winner up, but he’s on the outside looking in at 50-1.
Dullahan (Even The Score x Mining My Own by Smart Strike) is a half-brother to 2009 Kentucky Derby winner Mine That Bird. He clearly has an affinity for the Keeneland surface as he broke his maiden in the Breeders’ Futurity last fall. Since then he was fourth in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile and second in the Grade 3 Palm Beach Stakes to start his three-year-old campaign. Kent Desormeaux will be closing fast on this colt for trainer Dale Romans. He worked five furlongs in: 57 2/5 H on April 8, indicating the screws are tight and he is a fit horse at 6-1.
Two time winner Politicallycorrect (Kitten’s Joy x Exceedexpectations by Tale of the Cat) is racing for the red hot trainer Wesley Ward who has saddled 5 starters to 3 wins and 2 second place finishes at Keeneland thus far. The dark bay gelding was last seen drawing clear to a 3 length win going seven furlongs in an allowance race at Gulfstream. He was second over this surface in a maiden last year. Elvis Trujillo will be aboard at 30-1.
Midnight Crooner (War Chant x Midnight Kiss by Groom Dancer) was a seven and a half-length maiden winner at Golden Gate for trainer Bob Baffert in February. That win came after two failed tries at Santa Anita. He followed it up with a third place finish in the overnight Pasadena Stakes from Santa Anita. Running well here could be a stretch on form, but these connections have been known to make noise in the past. Owner Arnold Zetcher and Baffert hooked up with another son of War Chant, Midnight Interlude, to win last year’s Santa Anita Derby. Backers will be handsomely rewarded at 15-1.
John Sadler’s Holy Candy (Candy Ride x Spooky Minister by Deputy Minister) closed very well behind a slow pace to break his maiden last out at Santa Anita. It was his first win in four tries, but he had finished second to stakes horses Empire Way, Castaway and Stirred Up in his first three races. Watching his last race is probably a good idea; it wasn’t great by most numbers, but had many analysts going crazy because of how easily he did it. Joel Rosario makes the trip to ride at 30-1.
Team Valor owner Barry Irwin lamented earlier this week that his colt, Howe Great (Hat Trick x Ginger Sea by Western Winner), probably couldn’t beat Hansen. He doesn’t think anyone can. However, they run the race for a reason and at 6-1 this guy is well regarded. He rides a four race win streak that dates back to last year and includes a win last out in the Palm Beach Stakes. Irwin told me earlier this week that the connections are hoping to use this synthetic race as a springboard to the Kentucky Derby. Look for him to head to the lead under jockey JJ Castellano.
$600k yearling purchase Ever So Lucky (Indian Charlie x Bally Storm by Summer Squall) was an impressive first out winner last year before finishing second in the Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes on 15 days’ rest. His first start of the year was a bit of a disappointment as he was seventh lengths behind Trinniberg while finishing third in the Grade 3 Swale Stakes. That day’s winner returned to romp in the Bay Shore Stakes. Jockey Julien Leparoux will get the mount back and was last seen working him on April 10 in :57 H for five furlongs. He was clocked getting six in a blazing fast 1:09. It looks like he’s on tilt for a huge effort. Jonathan Sheppard trains the 12-1 chance.
Hero of Order (Sharp Humor x Ocean Sprite by Ocean Crest) broke from the 12 hole last out when he shocked the world at 109-1 to win the Grade 1 Louisiana Derby. He will try to win this race from the same post position. Owner/trainer Gennadi Dorrochenko says the colt is doing fabulously and has no problems running him back on short rest. Eddie Martin Jr. keeps the mount on the speedster and will try to pull another upset at 12-1.
Breaking widest of all is Scatman (Scat Daddy x Hit It Here Café by Grand Slam). He looked to have the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes won last out before backing up to third. New jockey Shaun Bridgmahon should have him near the front for trainer Michael Lauer. Look for him to appreciate Keeneland’s Poly Track at odds of 12-1.
Hansen is clearly the best horse in the race and the one to beat. It’s going to take something off the wall happening for him to lose this one. If he falters, the horses to watch are Dullahan, Holy Candy and Ever So Lucky. For the price, I have to go with Holy Candy as my top selection. I love the way he finished up last out and the sky truly appears to be his limit. Look for him to make a huge run under Joel Rosario at odds of 30-1. Go ahead and include Hansen, Dullahan and Ever So Lucky on multi-race exotic wagers.
Gradedstakes.com Social Media