February 5, 2012

Keeneland Picks 10/6/11 (Phoenix & Alcibiades Stakes)

Opening day for Keeneland arrives tomorrow and I couldn’t be happier. While I will only be there in spirit on Friday, I plan to spend my entire Saturday and Sunday at the most beautiful track on Earth. Saturday will be fairly casual for me and I’d be glad to meet up with any fellow racing fans. Just leave a comment on this post or contact me via Twitter and we can work something out! In the mean time, let’s handicap some races.

Grade 3 Phoenix Stakes

The last handful of stakes races have been a chalk fest and I don’t think it will end in this six furlong sprint race. Flashpoint (8-5) has excelled training over the track all year long and will make his inaugural race upon it. If he is as good as we think he is they will be eating his dust. The fleet footed sophomore is trained by Wes Ward and Cornelio Velasquez will retain the mount. The winner of this race earns an automatic berth to the Breeders Cup Sprint.

Grade 1 Alcibiades Stakes

This is a very tough race and for that reason I’m taking the proven commodity, Tu Endie Wei (6-1). The Brereton Jones homebred is half to graded stakes star Biofuel and she broke her maiden at first asking from the 13 hole at Woodbine going five furlongs in a stakes race. Yes, you read that correctly. The lass followed that win up with a sharp effort to take the Ontario Debutante. Today is the acid test and I think she passes with flying colors. Others I considered are Sweet Cat (6-1), Venetian Sonata (20-1), and And Why Not (5-1).

Be sure to check out our Twitter feed as I’ll be updating with plenty of Keeneland picks and news.

Kathmanblu looks to reaffirm herself in the Keeneland’s Ashland Stakes

Kathmanblu was at the top of her division after she romped home by 8 lengths in the Grade 2 Goldenrod Stakes at Churchill Downs. Since then Plum Pretty has emerged with a 25 length win in the Sunland Oaks. R Heat Lightning won the Gulfstream Oaks as fas you can throw a rock while in hand. Joyful Victory took the Honeybee Stakes by 9 lengths. Things are getting pretty heated in the three-year-old filly division!

Winning this weekend’s Ashland Stakes at Keeneland would likely help Kathmanblu reassert herself at the top of the hill. The daughter of Bluegrass Cat hasn’t raced since winning the Rachel Alexandra Stakes at Fair Grounds on February 19. That win came as a very heavy favorite and she had to work harder for it than I expected. However, she is allowed to have an off day and winning a stakes race by 1 1/4 lengths on an off day is better than 99% of horses can manage.

Kathmanblu boasts strong works and her most recent move was a :59 B five furlong bullet at Gulfstream. The thing that makes me scratch my head as she tries to win her fourth race in a row is that jockey Julien Leparoux took the mount on another filly, Dancinginherdreams. I didn’t see that coming. I think it is clear that Kathmanblu is the better of the two, but maybe Leparoux knows something that we do not. Alan Garcia gets the mount for the Ashland and likely into the future.

The aforementioned Dancinginherdreams is the biggest threat to Kathmanblu. She was most recently seen finishing behind R Heat Lightning in the Davona Dale 7 1/4 lengths back in second. Before that she was beaten 3/4 of a length in the Forward Gal. Her other two races are a maiden win over this track by 5 lengths and a 5 length score in the Pocahontas Stakes. The John Ward trainee tried getting a bit closer to the pace last out. It’s hard to say how that worked out because she didn’t win, but I highly doubt anyone was beating R Heat Lightning that day. It will be interesting to see if Leparoux tries getting closer again or drops further off the pace which was her style in her previous races. Dancinginherdreams is clearly the second best horse here behind Kathmanblu and it would be no surprise to see her get back on track with a win.

Wyomia and Delightful Mary pose the biggest threat to the top two choices in this race. Wyomia won the Mazarine Stakes at 2 before flopping in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf. Her first race of the year was a strong win in the Sun Coast Stakes which was her first try on the dirt. Delightful Mary finished third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies last year. Her 2011 debut was a win against three other fillies in the $100k OBS Championship Stakes which was a non wagering event. Of the two I like Wyomia a bit more as she looks to be on the way up after her last win.

The final horse of note in this race is Bouquet Booth. She probably only has a punchers chance, but that is a chance nonetheless. A winner of the Delta Downs Princess Stakes and the Silverbulletday Stakes, this daughter of Flower Alley will likely show speed from the rail. She is a cut below the best here in terms of talent, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see her take them all the way on the lead. Robby Albarado gets the mount for the first time.

To recap I am going with the favored Kathmanblu in the Ashland Stakes. Who is YOUR pick?

Transylvania Stakes headlines opening day at Keeneland

There is nothing quite like a day at Keeneland. I look forward to heading down to Lexington, KY for a weekend all year long. Opening day this year is 4/8 and I will be making it down on 4/10 and possibly the preceding day. Opening day will be headlined by the Grade 3 $100,000 Transylvania Stakes. The race is at the distance of 8.5 furlongs over the turf for three-year-olds. The purse isn’t the greatest for a graded race, but the field is strong nonetheless. Let’s take a look.

The first horse that piques my interest is the rail entry, Stormy Rush. He was last seen finishing fourth in the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes behind Rogue Romance. This race is run under the exact same conditions as the Bourbon so that should suit him well. Stormy Rush had the lead in the stretch of that race, but couldn’t hold off the closers. Before that race he was a hard closing third in the Grade 3 Summer Stakes. Trainer Roger Attfield fires with 26% winners off big layoffs and this colt broke his maiden at first asking, but the rest still bothers me a bit. I’m taking a wait and see approach.

My top pick will be Powhatan County. The George Weaver trained son of Fusaichi Pegasus broke his maiden at this distance at Saratoga before running second to Soldat in the Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes two starts later. In his first start of the year he took the field gate to wire at Gulfstream Park in optional claiming company. The second place finisher in that race, Animal Kingdom, returned to win the Grade 3 $500,000 Spiral Stakes at Turfway Park. Powhatan County can be on or near the lead depending on what jockey JJ Castellano decides. This is a colt that looks to have improved rapidly over the winter and I look for a big run in his second outing of the year.

Claude McGaughey’s Air Support will get plenty of backing at the windows. The Smart Strike colt was last seeing tiring in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf, but before that he took the Grade 3 Pilgrim Stakes at Belmont Park. It’s hard for me to like a colt that hasn’t raced in over 5 months, but he is certainly talented.

Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf winner Pluck is almost certainly going to be the favorite here. His 2011 debut was very lacking as he closed to be fourth in allowance company at Tampa Bay Downs. That field was about as sorry as they come and the fact that he didn’t win should trouble the connections. Despite that, this guy showed us tremendous talent last year and it wouldn’t shock or surprise to see him rebound here. However, I’m willing to bet that he won’t. Garrett Gomez gets the mount back after Ramon Dominguez rode last out. Lil Bit O’ Fun, winner of Pluck’s last race, is also entered here. I have a hard time seeing him win here as he is simply too slow on paper.

Christophe Clement’s Adirondack Summer has to be mentioned. The lightly raced colt has only seen 3 races, but is already a stakes winner. He took the $100k Dania Beach last out. The fast closing son of Thunder Gulch would benefit from a fast pace as he likes to rally from way back.

Great Mills could be the one to provide a fast pace. Winner of 3 of 4 and 3 in a row, the son of War Front was last seen taking the $60k Grindstone Stakes over Willcox Inn. Distance is a question, but I don’t see any reason to think he won’t be up to the task. Steve Asmussen trains and Julien Leparoux will ride. Leparoux has won the last two runnings of this race. I would use this one underneath my top choice.

So to recap on opening day my top pick in the Transylvania Stakes is Powhatan County. Who do you like?

 

Bettor Friendly Tracks; where to get the most bang for your buck!

*Please note that this post is just over a year old. While most of the information is still accurate, takeout rates have risen in California.*

Horse bettors are presented with a million different variables on any given day. There are almost always at least 10 tracks to bet at any given moment. There are a minimum of 11 “traditional” wagers that can be made. These include Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, and the Pick 6. Many circumstances are beyond the bettor’s control. Tracks can come up sloppy. Turf courses can be rated good or soft. Jockeys can fall off their mount. These things are uncontrollable, but we as bettors are able to control certain variables such as takeout. Will I place my wagers at the track with 25% exacta takeout, or the one with 18.5% takeout? Will I give my business to the track that has large and competitive fields, or the track that has small fields with many favorites finding the winners circle?

There are many factors to consider when deciding which track offers the best bang for the buck. The number one factor is size and competitiveness of the fields. If favorites are winning a disproportionate amount of races it will be hard to make money. If the majority of races at a track have only 6-8 horses or even less then exotics will pay little to nothing unless a huge long shot is able to win and the favorite runs out of the money. The wagering menu is also an important factor. Dime superfectas offer great value in fields of 10 horses or more. The same can be said for the 50-cent trifecta. Rolling Pick 3’s and the Pick 4 and 6 wagers offer great value for those who are able to string together several winners in a row. Takeouts must also be taken into consideration when making your decision. Whether you realize it or not, YOU have a choice when it comes to where you will bet your hard earned money. Let’s take a look at the top five bettor friendly tracks in the United States along with some honorable mentions.

#1 Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)- It was a tough decision, but the storied Churchill Downs ranks as the most bettor friendly racetrack in the entire United States. Whether it’s the beautiful scenery behind the legendary twin spires, low takeouts, or full fields, gamblers cannot go wrong with Churchill Downs. Home to the Kentucky Derby, this track is beloved by many fans. The Run for the Roses is one of the best betting races you will find, but there is much more to Churchill Downs than just a single race. One of the things I love best about Churchill Downs is the “real dirt”. While many gamblers have no problem with synthetic tracks, I find them harder to handicap and I know a lot of people out there would agree with me. Regular dirt races are much easier to handicap, and thus easier for gamblers to make money. The second thing I love about Churchill Downs is the diversity in race types. Churchill Downs is one of the only tracks I can think of where you might see low level claimers and Grade 1 winners compete on the same day on a regular basis.

The takeouts at Churchill Downs are very reasonable. The track keeps 16% of the Win-Place-Show pools, and 19% of all exotic pools. The amount of money in the pools is among the highest in the nation due to Churchill Downs popularity and strong racing. Their wager menu is very strong. They offer 50 cent Trifectas, Pick 3’s, and Pick 4’s. They also have the very popular dime superfecta wager. These wagers shouldn’t be underestimated. They allow bettors to stretch their bankroll and offer more bang for your buck. Average field size at Churchill Downs is 8.28 according to information provided by the Horseplayers Association of North America. I also like Churchill Downs because of their very useful advanced deposit wagering service (www.twinspires.com). Wagering online is very convenient and has many benefits, but we will save that discussion for another time. Churchill Downs has set the bar for other tracks when it comes to treating the bettor well.

#2 Keeneland (Lexington, Kentucky)- While the Kentucky racing circuit certainly has problems that it needs to address, the top two tracks when it comes to wagering lie in the Bluegrass State. Keeneland is one of the premier meets in horse racing. The beautiful location combined with the highest quality of racing makes Keeneland a must visit for all horse racing fans. The feature race in the spring is the Bluegrass Stakes, which has produced countless Kentucky Derby winners. It is just one of many excellent races at Keeneland. The takeout rate of 16% for Win-Place-Show wagers and 19% on exotic wagers is very reasonable. The takeout rates in Kentucky are among the best in the entire nation. Keeneland is similar to Churchill Downs in many ways. Both have top notch racing and they share the same takeout rates. They even offer most of the same wagers. The place where they part the most is in their racing surfaces. Keeneland has Polytrack while Churchill Downs still has traditional dirt.

Many bettors often complain about the trickiness of handicapping Keeneland due to its Polytrack surface. While it can be difficult at times, it isn’t impossible to figure out. For those that are baffled by the Polytrack, Keeneland offers a complete database of information about the Polytrack. It is available for free on their website and is titled “PolyCapping”.  There is an abundance of valuable information available at www.keeneland.com, and it is all free.  Other resources available online are the Winners Book, and Clocker’s Comments. The Winners Book contains information about every horse that won in the previous meet. Some of the information included is the winning jockey, post time odds, morning line odds, and much more. Clockers Comments is one of the most valuable resources you will find anywhere. The clocker at Keeneland makes notes for every horse that works there. This information is invaluable, particularly when handicapping maiden races with first time starters. The final thing I like about Keeneland is their excellent contests. They have handicapping contests quite frequently both on site and online. I recommend any handicapper that wants a challenge to give these contests a try. Keeneland and Churchill are neck and neck for first and second. You can’t go wrong with either track. Keeneland is a credit to the entire racing industry.

#3 Oaklawn Park (Hot Springs, Arkansas)- While Keeneland and Churchill Downs clearly set the standard for doing right by the bettor, Oaklawn Park isn’t too far behind. The facilities at Oaklawn are top of the line and will put a smile on even the most well traveled track enthusiast. The feature race at Oaklawn is the Arkansas Derby. It is a great betting race and has presented us with many future great horses such as Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Curlin just to name a few. Oaklawn is also home to the Apple Blossom, a Grade 1 race won by potential Horse of the Year Zenyatta in 2008. The takeout rates at Oaklawn are solid at 19% for Win-Place-Show and 21% for exotic wagers. The average field size is 9.04 according to data gathered by the Horseplayers Association of North America. This is a solid number and ranks Oaklawn in the top tier of all tracks for that statistic. The pool sizes are strong and average over $100k per race.

Oaklawn offers both the 50 cent trifecta and dime superfecta wagers. These wagers help bettors to obtain value, especially when making bets on races that have large fields. The track has benefited from increased purses thanks to an onsite casino. Increasing the purses subsequently lead to better horses racing at this track. Gamblers are able to join the Oaklawn Park Winner’s Circle Player’s Club. Members are rewarded for wagering at Oaklawn and can use the points they earn to buy things like a Daily Racing Form, food, or cash. Oaklawn has some of the finest race calling in the entire country thanks to track announcer Terry Wallace. He has delivered race calls for 36 years and hasn’t missed a single race at Oaklawn since 1975. His calls are some of the best around, and he has called 19,621 races at Oaklawn without missing a beat. While Oaklawn is a top notch track there are a few things I would like to see them improve upon. Their website is lacking and doesn’t even begin to come close to Keeneland. Other than that and a few other small details they are doing a wonderful job. There is a reason they call Oaklawn Park the Saratoga of the South; they treat the horseman and the bettor very well. Owner Charles Cella has always maintained that Oaklawn is about the horse, and he is making good on that promise.

#4 Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, California)- There is a reason that Santa Anita has hosted the last two Breeders Cup World Championships. This track is one of the finest in the entire world. Aptly named “The Great Race Place”, Santa Anita is home to the “Big Cap”, better known as the Santa Anita Handicap, and the Santa Anita Derby. Both are Grade 1 events that attract some of the finest horses in their divisions. This track has some of the best takeout ratings around. Their Win-Place-Show takeout is just 15.43%, ranking them in the top five of all tracks in North America for that category. The exotic takeout is a bit higher than some at 20.68%, but is still more than reasonable. The average field size is about average at 8.53 horses per race. Santa Anita offers the dime superfecta wager, but at this point in time does not offer 50 cent trifectas or 50 cent Pick 4’s. That is something I would like to see change in the near future.

One of my favorite reasons to bet Santa Anita is the $2 minimum Pick 6 wager. It isn’t uncommon for the wager to pay in excess of $100,000. If you are able to string together six winners in a row, you will be handsomely rewarded. The difficulty of the wager, combined with the massive amounts of money in the pool allows this to happen. The Super High 5 wager offered at Santa Anita represents another chance for a huge score. To a hit a Super High 5 the bettor must pick the first five finishers in a given race. It’s hard enough to hit a trifecta these days, so hitting the High 5 will almost always result in a huge pay day. Santa Anita’s website has Pick 6 carryover alerts for all tracks on the southern California circuit. Santa Anita is the perfect destination for the handicapper seeking the score of a lifetime.

#5 Gulfstream Park (Hallandale, Florida)- Home to the SunShine Millions, Florida Derby, and Donn Handicap, Gulfstream Park is a top notch track that bettors love. Due in large part to the excellent weather, this track has plenty of great horses to bet on when it runs from January to April. Winners of the Donn Handicap can often be found in the Dubai World Cup later in the year, and the same can be said for the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Gulfstream has excellent field size, averaging 9.07 horses per race according to the Horseplayers Association of North America. The takeouts for Win-Place-Show are acceptable at 17%. The trifecta and superfecta takeouts are too high at 25%. The Pick 6 takeout is 15%, and all other wagers are 20%.

I really like the takeout numbers for Gulfstream, minus the trifecta and superfectas. Those large numbers can really take a bite out of your payoffs. Gulfstream currently accepts the Dime Superfecta and 50 cent Pick 4 wagers. These wagers offer good value, but the excessive superfecta takeout means I’d rather play that wager at another track. The Good Luck Players Club is a nice thing for onsite bettors. It allows customers to accrue points for every wager they make, and the points can be spent on various items. Overall I was disappointed with the usefulness of their website. Keeneland clearly sets the standard in this area, and most racks have a lot of catching up to do. On the whole, Gulfstream is a good track to wager on, but it has some work to do in order to catch up to the top four.

Honorable Mentions:

Del Mar- I love this track, and I could find little wrong with it. However, I felt it was just a bit lower than Santa Anita in terms of quality. Where the turf meets the surf, Del Mar is one of the best tracks in the country and bettors can’t go wrong with this one.

Saratoga- The Spa is a great track for win bettors, but the excessive trifecta, superfecta, Pick 3 and Pick 4 takeouts caused me to leave them out of the top five. The pools always have tons of money in them, and the quality of racing is almost unparalleled. If you’re going to bet in New York, then Saratoga is the place to do so.

Hoosier Park- This track has great field size and low takeouts. However the pools are small in comparison to the big boys, and I believe in betting into larger pools. This typically results in larger payouts. Hoosier should be the top pick for anyone seeking to bet on a smaller track.

Evangeline Downs- In my experience this track is a graveyard for favorites. Evangeline often has very large fields over 10 horses and it’s never a surprise to see a huge long shot find the winners circle. If you like making win bets on horses at big odds then look no further than Evangeline Downs.

Overall it is clear that Kentucky comes out in front when it comes to giving bettors the best bang for their buck. Churchill Downs and Keeneland are far ahead of all of their competition overall. Santa Anita is clearly the place to be if you are looking for a life-changing score. Oaklawn and Gulfstream are both excellent meets that cater to players that like traditional dirt racing and excellent fields. While takeout, field size and field quality are very important I advise you to not lose sight of the reason you are wagering. I think I can speak for the majority of horseplayers when I say we bet the horses because it is something that we love dearly. Stay within your comfort zone and remember the most important rule; have fun.

*I would like to give a special thanks to HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) for the excellent work that they do and for gathering a large portion of information about the tracks and making it available on their website. If you would like to access their track information chart that includes takeout rates and much more visit: http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbyoverallscore.html.

Free Pick: J.B’s Thunder in the Dixiana Futurity

I like Al Stall’s son of Thunder Gulch, J.B.’s Thunder, to win the Grade 1 Dixiana Futurity for two-year-olds going 8.5 furlongs at Keeneland on Saturday. I expect him to a be nice price and will be betting Win-Place on him. With a good effort he could progress to the Breeders Cup Juvenile next month. Watch the video to find out more.

Keeneland Graded Stakes Races

Every racing fan should make a pilgrimage to Keeneland in Lexington, Kentucky. I can speak from experience when I say it is truly one of the most beautiful places in the United States. Whether it’s the gorgeous dogwood trees or the “up close and personal” paddock, Keeneland cannot be surpassed. The spring meet begins on April 2 and promises to bring plenty of excitement. Keeneland has been running since 1936 and has some of the best stakes action in the nation. Let’s take a look at the best stakes races for the Keeneland Spring Meet.

Bluegrass Stakes (Gr. I)- Historically speaking, this is one of the most important preps for the Kentucky Derby. The $750k purse guarantees the winner enough earnings to make an attempt at the Run for the Roses. Notable winners since 1970 include Dust Commander, Riva Ridge, Spectacular Bid, Alydar, Chief’s Crown, Holy Bull, Summer Squall, and Skip Away. The most recent horse to compete in the Bluegrass Stakes and then win the Kentucky Derby was Street Sense. He narrowly lost to Dominican in the Bluegrass Stakes.

Ashland Stakes (Gr. I)- There are many important races at Keeneland, but this one ranks near the top. It is a key prep for the Kentucky Oaks. It is raced at 8.5 furlongs on the Polytrack. The purse is quite hefty at $400k. Several highly successful fillies have won this race including Princess Rooney, Go For Wand, and Silverbulletday.

Madison Stakes (Gr. I)- This race has only been conducted since 2002, but has quickly become a Grade I event. It is for fillies and mares four-year-olds and up. The distance is seven furlongs on the Polytrack. The last two winners were Informed Decision and Ventura. Both mares later won the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint.

Mile Stakes (Gr. IT)- Sponsored by Maker’s Mark, this race takes place over one mile on the turf for four-year-olds and upwards. The race was first run in 1989. It has produced Breeders Cup Mile winners Opening Verse, Artie Schiller, Miesque’s Approval, and Kip Deville. Perfect Soul owns the speed record. He covered the mile distance in 1:33.54.

Lexington Stakes (Gr. II)- Contested at 8.5 furlongs on the Polytrack, this race takes place two weeks before the Kentucky Derby for which it is the final prep. Notable winners include Kentucky Derby and Preakness Stakes winner Charismatic, and Preakness Stakes and Belmont Stakes winner Risen Star. Many trainers use it as a last ditch effort to get the earnings needed to compete in the Kentucky Derby.

Commonwealth Stakes (Gr. II)- This race is contested at seven furlongs over the Polytrack for three-year-olds and upwards. Notable winners include Black Tie Affair, Distorted Humor, Richter Scale, Orientate, and Sun King.

Jenny Wiley Stakes (Gr. IIT)- The distance for this race is 8.5 furlongs over turf. It is for four-year-old fillies and upwards. The race has produced Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Turf winners Intercontinental and Forever Together.

Transylvania Stakes (Gr. IIIT)- This race is contested on opening day at 8.5 furlongs on the turf. It is for three-year-olds. It has been contested every year since 1989. The most notable winner was Izvestia who went on to sweep the Canadian Triple Crown.

Other notable stakes races include:

  • Shakertown Stakes
  • Beumont Stakes
  • Appalachian
  • Elkhorn
  • Bewitch

The aforementioned stakes races are exciting to watch and highly consequential. The Lexington and Bluegrass Stakes send horses to the Kentucky Derby. The Ashland almost always produces at least one entry for the Kentucky Oaks. The Mile Stakes has produced several Breeders Cup Mile winners. Racing at Keeneland is always of the highest quality. Even the allowance races are top notch. Racing will begin on April 2 and run until April 23. We should relish and enjoy every race.