By Chelsey Burris 

Lucky 13 is a ranking of 13 of the best current 3-year-old Thoroughbreds in racing who are pointing to the Kentucky Derby.  Each horse appears with their graded stakes earnings, as well as their current rank in earnings.  For example, top choice Union Rags is 2nd on the Derby earnings list with $1,070,000 in graded stakes earnings.

1. Union Rags – $1,070,000 (2nd)

I fell head over heels in love with this striking son of Dixie Union way back in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.  After he splashed home in the mud, I swore he would be my Derby horse.  He has come a long way since then, and his Fountain of Youth (G2) romp reaffirmed that he is a very legitimate Derby favorite.  He looked perfect uncoiling his huge stride in the Gulfstream stretch; and that wasn’t close to his best stuff.  Just wait until trainer Michael Matz cranks this colt up.  Hopefully a tough field assembles for the Florida Derby so he can get back in top shape to prepare for the upcoming Triple Crown battles.  El Padrino and possibly Alpha could definitely turn up the pressure, which would benefit Union Rags greatly. We could see another Barbaro-like performance on the first Saturday in May if things continue to go well for this colt.

 

2. Alpha – $180,000 (12th)
I sometimes wonder if other Derby analysts are blind or if I am just crazy, but I certainly like this Kiaran McLaughlin runner.  So many other people were touting Algorithms like he was the next Secretariat, but when you compare the two Bernardini colts, I always believed Alpha came out ahead.  Algorithms was impressive in every start while Alpha has won 3 of 5.  However, in one of Alpha’s losses, he was second to Union Rags in the G1 Champagne (not too shabby!), and in his other loss, he bled badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (a very worthy excuse in my book). The most telling comparison between these two Bernardini boys is that Algorithm’s dam has thrown several very classy sprinters (Keyed Entry and Justin Phillip especially), while Alpha’s dam looks to be much more stamina-oriented. Before Algorithm’s injury, I had him ranked 5th and Alpha ranked 2nd, because I really believed that of the two main Bernardini colts on the trail, Alpha was the best.

 

3. Creative Cause – $686,000 (3rd)

This horse has always been very professional.  He already had the luxury of having plenty of graded earnings from his 2-year-old campaign, so the handsome gray son of Giant’s Causeway could essentially prep however trainer Mike Harrington wanted.  He faced a stiff test in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes last weekend, yet won with determination and certainly, dispelling any fears his fans may have felt after his 3rd place finish in his three-year-old debut earlier this year.  Harrington has done a great job of turning this talented juvenile into a force-to-be-reckoned-with three-year-old.  In last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, Creative Cause wasn’t very far behind Union Rags and Hansen.  He has certainly stepped his game, and could be ready to do battle with those two again in the Run for the Roses.

 

4. Castaway – $150,000 (tied 16th)

This son of Street Sense took 6 tries to break his maiden, but once he got a taste of winning, he liked it.  He went straight from his maiden score to test stakes company in Division 1 of the G3 Southwest Stakes.  The Baffert trainee still looks like he has room to improve, and with his pedigree, the Derby distance should be right up his alley.  He is an interesting colt to watch out for.  His speed figures aren’t super-impressive but he has me convinced that he could improve and be right there Derby Day. 

5. Hansen – $1,400,000 (1st)

Hansen is full of talent, there is no doubt about that.  Earlier this year, I discussed how if he ever learned to settle and then spurt home that he would really be a scary sight. Earnings-wise, he has a guaranteed spot in the Derby starting gate, so the main focus of his prep schedule needed to be learning some patience.  His trainer Mike Maker understood this task, made some equipment changes, and got last year’s Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old male ready to transform.  In the Grade 3 Gotham, the unique looking, almost white horse settled behind a frontrunner and floated home like a ghost.  I’m sure the connections of every other major Derby horse looked as if they had seen an actual ghost after realizing Hansen has learned to rate.  The son of Tapit is even more dangerous now and we already know he is a fan of Churchill’s main track.

 

6. El Padrino – $200,000 (11th)

The occasionally fiery chestnut with the big, white blaze burst into my Lucky 13 after winning a dogfight with Mark Valeski in the Grade 2 Risen Star.  The son of Pulpit was classy last year, especially when finishing 3rd in the Remsen (G2.)  Pletcher horses are always dangerous at this time of year.  He could really spice up the Florida Derby (G1) if he chooses to go there next, where Union Rags will be waiting to face him.

 

7. Mark Valeski – $60,000 (43rd)

I couldn’t rank El Padrino #6 without including Mark Valeski, who showed his grit by stretching El-Pad all the way to the wire in the G2 Risen Star.  This Larry Jones trainee is getting good at the right time, and his gameness will certainly help him as he embarks down the Derby Trail.  Jones has had good luck taking bay Proud Citizen babies to Churchill, like when he sent Proud Spell to the Kentucky Oaks in 2008 where she dominated.  Mark Valeski has won 2 races, and the only 2 races he has lost were won by Union Rags and El Padrino.  That’s good enough to get Mark V. on the list. He isn’t as seasoned as some of the other runners, but no one can deny his fighting spirit.

 

8. Prospective - $365,452 (8th)

This Malibu Moon colt has done very little wrong.  The bay colt almost always runs great.  His one exception was his less-than-stellar performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he has obviously improved since then.  If you throw out the BC Juvenile, he has won four races and never finished out of the top two.  These races have been on turf, synthetic, and dirt.  The Mark Casse trainee is just a jack of all trades type of horse and although I don’t think he is on the same level as some of these other Derby horses at this point, he is still a reliable runner.  If he continues to improve, I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t be a viable Derby upset choice.

9. Midnight Transfer – $36,000 (52nd)

I’m sentimental with this horse because his sire Hard Spun is one of my absolute favorites.  However, Midnight Transfer has merits of his own.  He won the San Pedro Stakes over several classy horses and even though he looks more like a sprinter, his father was able to stretch his speed nearly all the way in the 2007 Derby, finishing second.  The pint-sized chestnut, who is trained by Carla Gaines, looked pretty nice finishing 3rd behind Creative Cause and Bodemeister in the G2 San Felipe Stakes.  He still is in need of precious earnings, so he is going to have to perform great wherever he runs next (presumably the G1 Santa Anita Derby).  I’m not really sure where he belongs on this list, but until he gives me a reason to kick him off, he’ll stay ranked.

 

10. Liaison – $393,000 (7th)

This Indian Charlie colt redeemed himself somewhat this month with an admirable fourth place finish in the loaded G2 San Felipe Stakes.  Baffert has an arsenal this year, so I think many people might forget about this colt.  However, I saw a wonderful quality in him in his two-year-old races.  He sure is a fighter (just ask Rousing Sermon) and I love to see that quality in a young horse.  Distance may hurt him a little, but he is very professional and shouldn’t be ignored.

 

11. Bodemeister – $60,000 (42nd)

I’m not the type to put recent maiden-breakers in my Lucky 13.  To me, even an amazing maiden breaking performance might not mean anything when the horse finally gets their chance against seasoned stakes horses.  Bodemeister did a tremendous job of exceeding my expectations in his stakes debut in the G2 San Felipe.  He was game every step of the way and just barely got pegged by the veteran Creative Cause, who had run in more Grade 1′s than Bodemeister had in any level of races.  Bodemeister is another horse from the Baffert barn and he has tons of stamina in his pedigree (his sire Empire Maker was a Belmont Stakes winner, and his dam is by Storm Cat).  He would be ranked a lot higher if there was more time before the Derby.  The colt is going to get one more chance to get some earnings, possibly in a race like the Santa Anita Derby (G1) which will likely come up very tough.  In a loaded race like that, he may not be able to finish close enough to even make the Derby field.

 

12. Drill – $300,000 (9th)

This Baffert horse is very  two faced.  When “Good Drill” shows up, you see rousing wins like his gritty score in the G2 San Vicente last time out or his G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  But when “Bad Drill” shows up, you get runs like 10th, seventh, and ninth in the BC Juvenile (G1), Delta Jackpot (G3) and Cashcall Futurity (G1) respectively.  This son of Lawyer Ron looked great out-gaming American Act last time out, but which Drill will show up to his next race?  It’s hard to have confidence in this year’s Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde.

 

13. American Act – $30,000 (tied 56th)

Several horses could have been worthy of the 13 spot but this gangly gelding by Quiet American ends up with it.  After two failed attempts, he broke his maiden in his first start at the age of three.  Next time out, he was super game in the G2 San Vicente, where he was a close runner-up to Drill. The Jack Carava trainee was set up for a huge bounce in the G2 San Felipe because of his great effort in the San Vicente, and he did end up finishing 7th.  However, his bounce is out of the way now and he could be set up for one last good prep and then a great race on Derby day.

Note: If the filly On Fire Baby ends up pointing for the Derby, she will definitely be ranked in the Lucky 13.

Notable Snubs

Empire Way – San Felipe didn’t give me a good feeling about him, but he could be a Belmont danger!
Take Charge Indy – This is a quality horse, but he is running out of time to prep.
I’ll Have Another – Hasn’t convinced me yet.

Dullahan – Mine That Bird’s little brother is very talented, but appears to be a better turf/all-weather horse.

Sabercat – He is a pretty nice horse, but he is unraced in 2012.  He needs to hop to it!

Gemologist – He’s undefeated but hasn’t run since November.  Like Sabercat, he needs to get back into the action.

Daddy Nose Best – Turf and All-Weather star has dirt form that isn’t too pretty.

Secret Circle – I think they would be wise to keep this boy sprinting where he can really be at his best.

First Crop Stallions Represented

Street Sense with #4 Castaway

Hard Spun with #9 Midnight Transfer

Lawyer Ron with #12 Drill