• Louisiana Derby second place finisher Mark Valeski worked five furlongs in 1:00.20 at Churchill Downs. Trainer Larry Jones was non-committal about the Kentucky Derby, saying that he would wait until Wednesday morning to make a decision about running.
• San Felipe Stakes winner Creative Cause was sent through four furlongs in :47.80 for trainer Mike Harrington. The normally quiet conditioner was quick to call the work “perfect” and is eagerly anticipating the big race. Harrington says he hopes for a post between 8-12 and a quick pace to chase.
• The Bob Baffert camp appears on the surface to be over the moon with the work of Grade 1 CashCall Futurity winner Liaison. The son of Indian Charlie covered five furlongs in 1:00.80 under jockey Martin Garcia. Baffert noted that he has looked more like a Derby horse than he ever has and that he will be competitive on Saturday. Liaison enters the Run for the Roses after three poor efforts as a sophomore, the latest being a sixth place finish in the Santa Anita Derby.
• Stablemates Sabercat (:48.40) and Daddy Nose Best (:49.40) worked four furlongs for Steve Asmussen. He noted that Sabercat will have to run the best race of his life to win and that Daddy Nose Best is a confident horse moving well over the surface. Both will be moving from the back of the pack.
• Bodemeister walked the shedrow Monday after a swift breeze in :59.60 on Sunday.Baffert says the son of Empire Maker will need a good draw and some racing luck to wear the Roses on Saturday.
• Blue Grass Stakes victor Dullahan galloped 1 ½ miles under exercise rider Faustino Aguilar. The son of Even The Score will try to make history as the first half-sibling of a previous Derby winner to take the race. His half brother, Mine That Bird, won in 2009. The trainer of that horse, Chip Woolley, visited Dullahan on the backstretch to wish him luck.
• The wagering menu for the Kentucky Oaks and Derby has been announced.
• KENTUCKY OAKS AND DERBY DAY WAGERING FORMATS:
  –Minimum $2 Win, Place, Show (all races)
  –$1 Exactas (all races)
  –50-cent Trifectas (all races with five or more betting interests)
  –$1 Superfectas (all races with six or more betting interests)
  –$1 Super Hi-5 on Kentucky Oaks (Race 11) and Kentucky Derby (Race 11) races
  –Rolling $1 Doubles
  –Rolling 50-cent Pick 3s
  –50-cent Pick 4s on Races 2-5, 4-7 & 8-11 both days, plus an additional Pick 4 on Races 10-13 on Kentucky Derby Day
  –50-cent Pick 5 on Races 7-11
  –$2 TwinSpires.com Guaranteed Pick 6 on Races 6-11 ($200,000 on Oaks Day, $500,000 on Derby Day)
  –Special $1 Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double
  –Special 50-cent Kentucky Oaks/Woodford Reserve Turf Classic/Kentucky Derby Pick 3
  –On-track parlay wagering available on up to six races on all Win, Place and/or Show pools

Need help betting the Kentucky Derby? Check out our Guide and Picks!

This post is just a sneak peak! Want to learn about all of the Kentucky Derby contenders? Check out our Kentucky Derby Guide!

Hansen

Trainer: Michael J. Maker Starts: 231 Win: 54 (23.37%) Place: 45 Show: 33 Earnings: $2,185,087.00

Jockey: Ramon A. Dominguez Starts: 371 Win: 90 Place: 82 Show: 48 Earnings: $5,447,933.00

Owner:  Kendall Hansen M.D. & Sky Chai Racing

Key Races: Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (1st), Holy Bull Stakes (2nd), Gotham Stakes (1st), Blue Grass Stakes (2nd)

Best Speed Figures: Beyer (96 in Holy Bull & Blue Grass) BRISnet (105 in Gotham)

The speedy colt Hansen is conditioned by Mike Maker who helped develop 1999 Kentucky Derby winner Charismatic while working under four time Derby winning trainer D. Wayne Lukas. Maker has saddled Blue Grass Stakes winner Stately Victor (2010), Lanes End Stakes winner Dean’s Kitten (2010), Blue Grass Stakes runner up Twinspired (2011) and Lexington Stakes winner Derby Kitten (2011). His best finish was with Stately Victor who finished eighth.

Jockey Ramon Dominguez has ridden in the Kentucky Derby every year since 2004 when his first mount in the race was Hansen’s sire, Tapit. They finished ninth together after winning the Wood Memorial. Dominguez’s best finish in the Run for the Roses was second at odds of 30-1 on Bluegrass Cat in 2006.

Hansen likes to be in front. He boasts a tremendous amount of natural zip and has a very high cruising speed. He has raced without blinkers in his last two tries and his Gotham Stakes win suggests that he has calmed down enough to sit behind a horse or two.

His chances are likely to hinge on a few things. First, his demeanor is an important factor. The nearly white colt can get a little head strong and it’s imperative that he allows Dominguez to do his job. If not, he could waste himself before the top of the stretch.

Second, Hansen needs a good post position that will allow him to break into the top flight without losing too much ground.

Third, Hansen, like everyone else, will need to handle the Derby day crowd. He got worked up before the Blue Grass Stakes and will be in front of many more thousands of people this time.

A perfect situation for Hansen would see him break cleanly and set up shop right behind the sprinter Trinniberg. When that one gives up the ghost, Dominguez can put the pedal to the medal and play “catch me if you can”. The slower the fractions the better, of course.

Hansen has the advantage of a win over this track, taking last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile over Union Rags. He also appears to be training exceptionally well and could be ready for a career best effort. That makes him deadly in the Kentucky Derby.

Pedigree

Tapit stands for $125k at Gainesway. That price makes him the third most expensive stallion in the state of Kentucky, behind Bernardini and Street Cry. His marquee win was the aforementioned Wood Memorial where he rallied from last to triumph by a half-length. His best progeny include:

• Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies winner Stardom Bound
• Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf winner Tapitsfly
• West Virginia Derby winner Concord Point
• Lady’s Secret Stakes winner Zazu
• Alabama Stakes winner Careless Jewel
• Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Headache
• Haskell Invitational runner up Trappe Shot

From the above listed runners, Concord Point and Careless Jewel were the most adept at going long distances, winning against top company at 9 and 10 furlongs, respectively. Headache’s Gold Cup win was at the 10 furlongs distance. Most sons and daughters of Tapit have done their best running from 8 to 9 furlongs, but we can see that with enough talent they are able to stretch out to achieve success at the classic distances.

Hansen was produced out of the Mountaineer Park starter allowance mare Stormy Sunday. Her sire, Sir Cat, won half of his 14 starts while annexing two Grade 2 races against turf routers. His best progeny include Surf Cat and Cativa, runners that excelled in middle distance races. The sire of Sir Cat is the prolific Storm Cat. Largely regarded as one of the best stallions in the history of racing, he stood for as much as $500k per live foal. His best progeny could get route distances, but for as great as he was, Storm Cat never produced a Triple Crown race winner.

On the whole, the pedigree of Hansen rates well. He has enough stamina influences to suggest that staying the Kentucky Derby distance is within reason.

Pedigree Grade: B

Overall Grade: B

Fair Odds: 8-1

This post is just a sneak peak! Want to learn about all of the Kentucky Derby contenders? Check out our Kentucky Derby Guide!

by Robert Boswell

Union Rags

Bay colt foaled March 3, 2009

Dixie Union – Tempo by Gone West

Owner: Chadds Ford Stable

Trainer: Michael Matz

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

On the track: Union Rags won his career debut in July going 5 furlongs at Delaware Park against Maiden Special Weight competition. He then jumped straight into the deep end in the Saratoga Special (GII) and the Champagne (GI), taking both and beating fellow Kentucky Derby contender, Alpha, in the latter. It was at this point that the chatter began to build, just as it does every time there is a bright young standout. ‘Rags was lauded as the early Derby favorite by all and as much as racing fans didn’t want to get too far ahead of themselves, the whispers and thoughts of a potential Triple Crown winner were unavoidable. The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile pitted the top 2-year-old against the largest and most talented he had seen, to date, and it proved to live up to the billing. He was sent off the 1/10 favorite and came up just a head short in his rally behind Hansen not only in the Breeder’s Cup, but also in the Eclipse Award voting for Champion 2-Year-Old Male. Michael Matz, being a patient trainer, waited until the Fountain of Youth (GII) to give Union Rags his 3-year-old start. With the defection of Algorithms due to injury, he won impressively and seemed to rekindle the romance in the racing world again. The obvious next step was the Florida Derby (GI), where he again was the heavy favorite.  After being set under a long drive by Julien Leparoux, the colt started his best running only in the final 16^th, which proved to be too late to catch Take Charge Indy and Reveron.

Storylines: Matz won the 2006 Kentucky Derby with Barbaro, who was also a stand out his entire career, so it’s easy to draw some comparisons between the two.  It would be a great story for Matz and the racing world to have things go their way after such a tragedy. Also, before the Fountain of Youth, jockey Javier Castellano made the controversial decision to get off Union Rags and ride promising, young Algorithms, only for the son of Bernardini to be sidelined with injury. Castellano will be aboard Gemologist for the Derby.

Pros: Experience over the track; freshness; “Spirit of Barbaro”;

Cons: Disappointed last out; no two-turn Grade I win

Interested in learning about ALL the Kentucky Derby contenders? Check out our Kentucky Derby Guide!

Handicapping Kentucky Derby prep races is one of the greatest and most rewarding challenges in horse racing. Dechipering a field of top sophomore contenders isn’t easy and can differ from other types of races. Let’s take a look at some key points on how to handicap Kentucky Derby preparatory races.

#1 Intent: The connections of a horse usually wont let you know beforehand how they intend for their animal to benefit from the race. However, they all have the same goal and that is to peak in the Kentucky Derby; not before it. Keep that in mind when looking at some of the late season preps such as the Florida Derby, Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, Santa Anita Derby and other races. The best horse isn’t always going to win these races. Sometimes the best horse is going to do just enough to get something worthwhile from the effort while a colt or gelding that was on tilt wins the race in order to get the necessary earnings for the Run for the Roses.

An excellent example of this is the 2006 Blue Grass Stakes. Dominican was the winner, but nobody will tell you that he was a better horse than Street Sense, the eventual Kentucky Derby champ. Dominican was better that day because the connection threw everything they had at the race while trainer Carl Nafzger didn’t have Street Sense cranked up all the way. After all, why would he want to leave his Churchill Downs effort at Keeneland? Knowing this can help you crush a short priced favorite, but keep in mind that even when a horse isn’t intended to be 100%, he could still be too much for the opposition.

#2 “Horses are like strawberries, they go bad overnight.“: The preceding quote came from one of the greatest horseman in the history of thoroughbred horse racing; Charlie Whittingham. A winner of 252 stakes races, Whittingham trained greats like Ack Ack, Ferndinand and Sunday Silence. He won races like the Kentucky Derby, Preakness Stakes, Arlington Million, Santa Anita Handicap (eight times), Hollywood Gold Cup (eight times) and even the Japan Cup, a race in which is his the last American trainer to have done so (1991). In short, the man knew his way around a racehorse.

Whittingham’s words are something for not only horsemen, but handicappers to keep in mind. The inverse is also true; horses can get very, very good in a short amount of time during this part of their career. An excellent example of this came in the 2009 Arkansas Derby. Old Fashioned, winner of the Remsen Stakes at two, was sent off as a prohibitive favorite despite losing in the Rebel Stakes last out. He led down the lane, but in the end he succumbed to a stretch duel with eventual winner Papa Clem. Trainer Gary Stute remarked after the race that he thought Old Fashioned was beatable after watching him lose for the first time in the Rebel Stakes. Stute was correct and his charge blossomed at the right time. Before that race Papa Clem was beaten just over seven lengths while second in the Louisiana Derby. This is just one of many examples of one horse peaking and another improving at the ideal time.

#3 Pedigree: This is the time of the year when the races start to get much longer. The Kentucky Derby is farther than most horses will ever race at 10 furlongs and its main prep races are usually nine furlongs. It makes sense to have a horse perfectly fit to go these long distances. However sometimes, fitness wont do the trick. Pedigree can really hold some horses back and regardless of how fit they are, some contenders just have distance limitations.

Pedigree came into play in 2010 for Bob Baffert’s Conveyance. The super speedy son of Indian Charlie was good enough to win the San Rafael Stakes and Southwest Stakes going eight furlongs, but gave in during the final panel of the nine furlong Sunland Derby where he was the 3-5 favorite. He would fade again next out in the Kentucky Derby where he finished 15th.

Another great example of pedigree limiting a horse on the Kentucky trail is Noble’s Promise. The son of champion sprinter Cuvee won the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland as a juvenile and finished third in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. As a sophomore he did well to be second in the Rebel Stakes, but when he was entered in the nine furlong Arkansas Derby he could only manage a fifth place finish. Then, in the Kentucky Derby, he had the lead turning for home only to fade to fifth again. If the race had been shorter he probably would have worn the Roses.

Distance isn’t the only reason to consider pedigree. In the era of synthetic tracks, three of the main prep races for the Kentucky Derby are contested on Polytrack. Those races are the Spiral Stakes from Turfway Park, Bluegrass Stakes from Keeneland and the Lexington Stakes, also from Keeneland. It is important to remember that turf horses can do very well in these spots. You have to toss out their bad dirt races and focus primarily on their turf and or other synthetic track performances.

In 2011, Santiva went to post as the favorite in the Bluegrass Stakes. While he had good synthetic form and had performed well at Keeneland in the past, bettors made him a huge underlay at 2-1. The eventual winner, Brilliant Speed, was 19-1 despite finishing on the board in two turf stakes races at Gulfstream before that race. Brilliant Speed is by Dynaformer, one of the best turf sires in America. Twinspired, a close second, had just finished third in the Spiral Stakes and broke his maiden over the surface. His sire, Harlan’s Holiday, isn’t really a turf influence, but his broodmare sire, El Prado, threw great turf runners left and right.

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Hero of Order holds off Mark Valeski

Hero of Order (Sharp Humor x Ocean Sprite by Ocean Crest) shocked us all in Fair Ground’s Grade 2 $1 million Louisiana Derby at odds of 109.40-1.

Hero of Order broke second under jockey Eddie Martin Jr, before inheriting the lead from the fading Comisky’s Humor as the field turned for home. He stayed on for a half length win over 3/2 favorite Mark Valeski while completing the 9 furlongs distance in 1:50.13 seconds.

Eddie Martin doesn’t own a huge reputation, but has won more than a few big races in his time as a race rider. He had never won his hometown Louisiana Derby though.

“Well, he (trainer Gennadi Dorrochenko) told me just to ride him and it worked. I was surprised I didn’t get pressured more than I did. You know, I had my target in front of me and he just let me inherit the lead around the turn and off we went.” said Martin.

Russian immigrant and former jockey Gennadi Dorrochenko owns and trains the winner.

“We run horses together, Eddie and me. I told him exactly what he wants to do, he do and he wins.” remarked Dorrochenko.

“Eddie is best jockey. We are around horses together, I give him chance. A lot of jockeys have ridden him and everything but he do exactly what I tell him, he wins.” Dorrochenk said.

Hero of Order was purchase for only $3k at the 2010 Keeneland September Sale.

“You see, I brought not expensive horses but I make these horses expensive.” Dorrochenko happily said.

Sadly, Hero of Order is virtually guaranteed not to make the starting gate for the Kentucky Derby on May 5. He is not Triple Crown nominated. For him to make the race, the connections would have to supplement for $200k and hope that less than 20 Triple Crown nominees enter the race. The odds of that are very, very slim.

It was discovered that second place finisher Mark Valeski competed without one of his shoes and exited the race lame.

Rousing Sermon came on late to pass Cigar Street for third place honors.

Daddy Long Legs wins at Newmarket.

It’s onward to the Kentucky Derby for Daddy Long Legs (Scat Daddy x Dreamy Maiden by Meadowlake). The Aidan O’Brien charge dismissed 13 other runners in Dubai’s $1 million 1 3/16 miles UAE Derby after tracking the pace and surging home to hold off France’s Yang Tse Kiang. The final time for this race contested on Meydan’s Tapeta surface was 1:58.35. Colm O’Donaghue was aboard for the 1 ¼ length victory.

Daddy Long Legs last raced this colt in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile where he finished 12 of 13. It’s possible he didn’t appreciate the dirt surface at Churchill Downs, but it’s also possible that it just wasn’t his day. Daddy Long Legs also owns a win in the Group 2 Royal Lodge Stakes from England’s Newmarket Racecourse. The previous winner of that race was Frankel, the highest rated horse in the world at this moment.

Sire Scat Daddy is really making a name for himself on turf and synthetic surfaces. This is yet another example as the $100k Fasig-Tipton July purchase gives the Florida Derby winning sire yet another stakes winner. It will be interesting to see if this Kentucky bred can transfer his form to dirt. His mare, Dreamy Maiden, won the Raven Run at Keeneland in 1999.

Aidan O’Brien saddled Master of Hounds to a fifth place finish in last year’s Run for the Roses. Before that, his last runner was Johannesburg in 2002. That colt was a Breeders’ Cup Juvenile winner and could only manage an eighth place finish.

If you think O’Brien, Europe’s equivelant to Todd Pletcher, can win his first Kentucky Derby with this horse, then you are in for a good price. He has opened at 20-1 in most books and could be even higher when all is said and done.

Union Rags

By Chelsey Burris 

Lucky 13 is a ranking of 13 of the best current 3-year-old Thoroughbreds in racing who are pointing to the Kentucky Derby.  Each horse appears with their graded stakes earnings, as well as their current rank in earnings.  For example, top choice Union Rags is 2nd on the Derby earnings list with $1,070,000 in graded stakes earnings.

1. Union Rags – $1,070,000 (2nd)

I fell head over heels in love with this striking son of Dixie Union way back in the Grade 2 Saratoga Special.  After he splashed home in the mud, I swore he would be my Derby horse.  He has come a long way since then, and his Fountain of Youth (G2) romp reaffirmed that he is a very legitimate Derby favorite.  He looked perfect uncoiling his huge stride in the Gulfstream stretch; and that wasn’t close to his best stuff.  Just wait until trainer Michael Matz cranks this colt up.  Hopefully a tough field assembles for the Florida Derby so he can get back in top shape to prepare for the upcoming Triple Crown battles.  El Padrino and possibly Alpha could definitely turn up the pressure, which would benefit Union Rags greatly. We could see another Barbaro-like performance on the first Saturday in May if things continue to go well for this colt.

2. Alpha – $180,000 (12th)
I sometimes wonder if other Derby analysts are blind or if I am just crazy, but I certainly like this Kiaran McLaughlin runner.  So many other people were touting Algorithms like he was the next Secretariat, but when you compare the two Bernardini colts, I always believed Alpha came out ahead.  Algorithms was impressive in every start while Alpha has won 3 of 5.  However, in one of Alpha’s losses, he was second to Union Rags in the G1 Champagne (not too shabby!), and in his other loss, he bled badly in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (a very worthy excuse in my book). The most telling comparison between these two Bernardini boys is that Algorithm’s dam has thrown several very classy sprinters (Keyed Entry and Justin Phillip especially), while Alpha’s dam looks to be much more stamina-oriented. Before Algorithm’s injury, I had him ranked 5th and Alpha ranked 2nd, because I really believed that of the two main Bernardini colts on the trail, Alpha was the best.

3. Creative Cause – $686,000 (3rd)

This horse has always been very professional.  He already had the luxury of having plenty of graded earnings from his 2-year-old campaign, so the handsome gray son of Giant’s Causeway could essentially prep however trainer Mike Harrington wanted.  He faced a stiff test in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes last weekend, yet won with determination and certainly, dispelling any fears his fans may have felt after his 3rd place finish in his three-year-old debut earlier this year.  Harrington has done a great job of turning this talented juvenile into a force-to-be-reckoned-with three-year-old.  In last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile at Churchill Downs, Creative Cause wasn’t very far behind Union Rags and Hansen.  He has certainly stepped his game, and could be ready to do battle with those two again in the Run for the Roses.

4. Castaway – $150,000 (tied 16th)

This son of Street Sense took 6 tries to break his maiden, but once he got a taste of winning, he liked it.  He went straight from his maiden score to test stakes company in Division 1 of the G3 Southwest Stakes.  The Baffert trainee still looks like he has room to improve, and with his pedigree, the Derby distance should be right up his alley.  He is an interesting colt to watch out for.  His speed figures aren’t super-impressive but he has me convinced that he could improve and be right there Derby Day. 

5. Hansen – $1,400,000 (1st)

Hansen is full of talent, there is no doubt about that.  Earlier this year, I discussed how if he ever learned to settle and then spurt home that he would really be a scary sight. Earnings-wise, he has a guaranteed spot in the Derby starting gate, so the main focus of his prep schedule needed to be learning some patience.  His trainer Mike Maker understood this task, made some equipment changes, and got last year’s Eclipse Award winning 2-year-old male ready to transform.  In the Grade 3 Gotham, the unique looking, almost white horse settled behind a frontrunner and floated home like a ghost.  I’m sure the connections of every other major Derby horse looked as if they had seen an actual ghost after realizing Hansen has learned to rate.  The son of Tapit is even more dangerous now and we already know he is a fan of Churchill’s main track.

6. El Padrino – $200,000 (11th)

The occasionally fiery chestnut with the big, white blaze burst into my Lucky 13 after winning a dogfight with Mark Valeski in the Grade 2 Risen Star.  The son of Pulpit was classy last year, especially when finishing 3rd in the Remsen (G2.)  Pletcher horses are always dangerous at this time of year.  He could really spice up the Florida Derby (G1) if he chooses to go there next, where Union Rags will be waiting to face him.

7. Mark Valeski – $60,000 (43rd)

I couldn’t rank El Padrino #6 without including Mark Valeski, who showed his grit by stretching El-Pad all the way to the wire in the G2 Risen Star.  This Larry Jones trainee is getting good at the right time, and his gameness will certainly help him as he embarks down the Derby Trail.  Jones has had good luck taking bay Proud Citizen babies to Churchill, like when he sent Proud Spell to the Kentucky Oaks in 2008 where she dominated.  Mark Valeski has won 2 races, and the only 2 races he has lost were won by Union Rags and El Padrino.  That’s good enough to get Mark V. on the list. He isn’t as seasoned as some of the other runners, but no one can deny his fighting spirit.

8. Prospective - $365,452 (8th)

This Malibu Moon colt has done very little wrong.  The bay colt almost always runs great.  His one exception was his less-than-stellar performance in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but he has obviously improved since then.  If you throw out the BC Juvenile, he has won four races and never finished out of the top two.  These races have been on turf, synthetic, and dirt.  The Mark Casse trainee is just a jack of all trades type of horse and although I don’t think he is on the same level as some of these other Derby horses at this point, he is still a reliable runner.  If he continues to improve, I don’t see any reason why he couldn’t be a viable Derby upset choice.

9. Midnight Transfer – $36,000 (52nd)

I’m sentimental with this horse because his sire Hard Spun is one of my absolute favorites.  However, Midnight Transfer has merits of his own.  He won the San Pedro Stakes over several classy horses and even though he looks more like a sprinter, his father was able to stretch his speed nearly all the way in the 2007 Derby, finishing second.  The pint-sized chestnut, who is trained by Carla Gaines, looked pretty nice finishing 3rd behind Creative Cause and Bodemeister in the G2 San Felipe Stakes.  He still is in need of precious earnings, so he is going to have to perform great wherever he runs next (presumably the G1 Santa Anita Derby).  I’m not really sure where he belongs on this list, but until he gives me a reason to kick him off, he’ll stay ranked.

10. Liaison – $393,000 (7th)

This Indian Charlie colt redeemed himself somewhat this month with an admirable fourth place finish in the loaded G2 San Felipe Stakes.  Baffert has an arsenal this year, so I think many people might forget about this colt.  However, I saw a wonderful quality in him in his two-year-old races.  He sure is a fighter (just ask Rousing Sermon) and I love to see that quality in a young horse.  Distance may hurt him a little, but he is very professional and shouldn’t be ignored.

11. Bodemeister – $60,000 (42nd)

I’m not the type to put recent maiden-breakers in my Lucky 13.  To me, even an amazing maiden breaking performance might not mean anything when the horse finally gets their chance against seasoned stakes horses.  Bodemeister did a tremendous job of exceeding my expectations in his stakes debut in the G2 San Felipe.  He was game every step of the way and just barely got pegged by the veteran Creative Cause, who had run in more Grade 1′s than Bodemeister had in any level of races.  Bodemeister is another horse from the Baffert barn and he has tons of stamina in his pedigree (his sire Empire Maker was a Belmont Stakes winner, and his dam is by Storm Cat).  He would be ranked a lot higher if there was more time before the Derby.  The colt is going to get one more chance to get some earnings, possibly in a race like the Santa Anita Derby (G1) which will likely come up very tough.  In a loaded race like that, he may not be able to finish close enough to even make the Derby field.

12. Drill – $300,000 (9th)

This Baffert horse is very  two faced.  When “Good Drill” shows up, you see rousing wins like his gritty score in the G2 San Vicente last time out or his G1 win in the Del Mar Futurity last September.  But when “Bad Drill” shows up, you get runs like 10th, seventh, and ninth in the BC Juvenile (G1), Delta Jackpot (G3) and Cashcall Futurity (G1) respectively.  This son of Lawyer Ron looked great out-gaming American Act last time out, but which Drill will show up to his next race?  It’s hard to have confidence in this year’s Dr. Jekyll/Mr. Hyde.

13. American Act – $30,000 (tied 56th)

Several horses could have been worthy of the 13 spot but this gangly gelding by Quiet American ends up with it.  After two failed attempts, he broke his maiden in his first start at the age of three.  Next time out, he was super game in the G2 San Vicente, where he was a close runner-up to Drill. The Jack Carava trainee was set up for a huge bounce in the G2 San Felipe because of his great effort in the San Vicente, and he did end up finishing 7th.  However, his bounce is out of the way now and he could be set up for one last good prep and then a great race on Derby day.

Note: If the filly On Fire Baby ends up pointing for the Derby, she will definitely be ranked in the Lucky 13.

Notable Snubs

Empire Way – San Felipe didn’t give me a good feeling about him, but he could be a Belmont danger!
Take Charge Indy – This is a quality horse, but he is running out of time to prep.
I’ll Have Another – Hasn’t convinced me yet.

Dullahan – Mine That Bird’s little brother is very talented, but appears to be a better turf/all-weather horse.

Sabercat – He is a pretty nice horse, but he is unraced in 2012.  He needs to hop to it!

Gemologist – He’s undefeated but hasn’t run since November.  Like Sabercat, he needs to get back into the action.

Daddy Nose Best – Turf and All-Weather star has dirt form that isn’t too pretty.

Secret Circle – I think they would be wise to keep this boy sprinting where he can really be at his best.

First Crop Stallions Represented

Street Sense with #4 Castaway

Hard Spun with #9 Midnight Transfer

Lawyer Ron with #12 Drill

Alpha breaks his maiden by six lengths at Saratoga

Alpha (Bernardini x Munnaya by Nijinsky II) channeled the brilliance he showed in his debut to draw off to an easy 2 ½ win in the $150k Count Fleet Stakes from Aqueduct.

The Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt was equipped with lasix for the first time and had leading NY rider Ramon Dominguez in the irons. The horse-jockey duo sat right behind the slow pace set by Il Villano before pouncing in the stretch. Stephanoatsee rallied very late to steal second place honors from the pacesetter.

We already knew Alpha was a fast colt, but he’s really one to watch after his first stakes win. He ran past a good horse in Il Villano and did so with very little trouble. This is clearly a two turn horse and we know he’s only going to get stronger as the races get longer. The target for the Godolphin Racing owned colt is the Grade 3 Withers Stakes on February 4 and then the Grade 1 Wood Memorial on April 7.

If he is able to complete the New York hat trick, or perform strongly enough to get the graded stakes earnings required to start, he will head to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby.

As of right now, he isn’t as good as top contenders Hansen and Union Rags, but there is a very good chance he could catch up with them. Alpha strikes me as a colt that is only going to get faster as he matures and maturity comes with more racing. By the time the Kentucky Derby comes around on the first Saturday in May, he could be the horse to beat.

It is 3:36 am at the time I started writing this. I should be sleeping. Instead I just finished a marathon handicapping session which included the completion of my 2011 Kentucky Derby Picks sheet. It took 6 hours total, but it will be well worth it when I cash some big exotic tickets on Saturday.

The card difficulty is among the toughest I have ever seen. Despite, this I’m very confident. The more difficult the card the higher the payouts will be. I predict every Pick 4 will be a signer and the Pick 5 will pay in excess of $15,000. I plan on having the Pick 5 as well as a few Pick 4′s along the way. I am cautiously optimistic that the 2011 Kentucky Derby could be my best day of horse betting ever.

The most interesting races for Saturday are the CD, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and of course the Kentucky Derby. The CD has many horses that can win. I’ve got several big prices on my Pick 4 and 5 ticket. The Woodford Reserve and Kentucky Derby are also difficult races, but I feel I’ve got a good handle of both of them.

Friday’s card will be very good too. I like several big priced horses as my top picks. I’ll be on Twitter most of the day talking about the races so feel free to follow me @gradedstakes and we can discuss the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.

Be sure to purchase our selections for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. You will receive them via email. Payment through PayPal is simple and fast. Don’t miss out. Like I said, I believe this could be my greatest day of handicapping yet. You can join me for the ride!

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Kentucky Derby Picks

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Earlier this year I did a post called “Buy or Sell: Uncle Mo”. At the end of the post I told you I couldn’t make up my mind without more data. Two races and multiple works later I still hadn’t decided. Now, after his final Kentucky Derby work, I can tell you that I am selling on Uncle Mo.

The son of Indian Charlie out of the Arch mare Playa Maya worked five furlongs over a sloppy track with stable mate Stay Thirsty in 1:01 3/5 this morning. Internal fractions of :12 4/5, :25 2/5, :37 1/5, and :49 1/5 were recorded as was a six furlong gallop out in 1:14 1/5 and seven in 1:28.

When looking at Kentucky Derby works I want a horse that really blows me away and looks like he is on tilt. To me,  this is a sign of a horse that is prepared to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby. That is why I went with Hard Spun in 2007 after he posted a :57 4/5 B five furlong bullet. The Larry Jones colt ran a heck of a race and ended up second at 10-1 behind a horse with an equally good work of :58 B.  That horse, as you probably know, was Street Sense.

Uncle Mo won the Breeders Cup Juvenile just like Street Sense. Unfortunately for trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey John Velazquez and owner Mike Repole that is likely where their similarities will end.  Nothing about his latest work tells me Uncle Mo will rebound and win the Kentucky Derby. It just wasn’t impressive at all.

The risk of taking him now far outweighs the potential reward. I would need 10-1  to bet this colt and he will be much closer to 5 or 6-1. Combine these unimpressive works with the fact that he is recovering from a GI tract infection and he becomes even less attractive.