Alpha breaks his maiden by six lengths at Saratoga

Alpha (Bernardini x Munnaya by Nijinsky II) channeled the brilliance he showed in his debut to draw off to an easy 2 ½ win in the $150k Count Fleet Stakes from Aqueduct.

The Kiaran McLaughlin trained colt was equipped with lasix for the first time and had leading NY rider Ramon Dominguez in the irons. The horse-jockey duo sat right behind the slow pace set by Il Villano before pouncing in the stretch. Stephanoatsee rallied very late to steal second place honors from the pacesetter.

We already knew Alpha was a fast colt, but he’s really one to watch after his first stakes win. He ran past a good horse in Il Villano and did so with very little trouble. This is clearly a two turn horse and we know he’s only going to get stronger as the races get longer. The target for the Godolphin Racing owned colt is the Grade 3 Withers Stakes on February 4 and then the Grade 1 Wood Memorial on April 7.

If he is able to complete the New York hat trick, or perform strongly enough to get the graded stakes earnings required to start, he will head to Churchill Downs for the Kentucky Derby.

As of right now, he isn’t as good as top contenders Hansen and Union Rags, but there is a very good chance he could catch up with them. Alpha strikes me as a colt that is only going to get faster as he matures and maturity comes with more racing. By the time the Kentucky Derby comes around on the first Saturday in May, he could be the horse to beat.

It is 3:36 am at the time I started writing this. I should be sleeping. Instead I just finished a marathon handicapping session which included the completion of my 2011 Kentucky Derby Picks sheet. It took 6 hours total, but it will be well worth it when I cash some big exotic tickets on Saturday.

The card difficulty is among the toughest I have ever seen. Despite, this I’m very confident. The more difficult the card the higher the payouts will be. I predict every Pick 4 will be a signer and the Pick 5 will pay in excess of $15,000. I plan on having the Pick 5 as well as a few Pick 4′s along the way. I am cautiously optimistic that the 2011 Kentucky Derby could be my best day of horse betting ever.

The most interesting races for Saturday are the CD, Woodford Reserve Turf Classic and of course the Kentucky Derby. The CD has many horses that can win. I’ve got several big prices on my Pick 4 and 5 ticket. The Woodford Reserve and Kentucky Derby are also difficult races, but I feel I’ve got a good handle of both of them.

Friday’s card will be very good too. I like several big priced horses as my top picks. I’ll be on Twitter most of the day talking about the races so feel free to follow me @gradedstakes and we can discuss the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby.

Be sure to purchase our selections for the Kentucky Oaks and Kentucky Derby. You will receive them via email. Payment through PayPal is simple and fast. Don’t miss out. Like I said, I believe this could be my greatest day of handicapping yet. You can join me for the ride!

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Earlier this year I did a post called “Buy or Sell: Uncle Mo”. At the end of the post I told you I couldn’t make up my mind without more data. Two races and multiple works later I still hadn’t decided. Now, after his final Kentucky Derby work, I can tell you that I am selling on Uncle Mo.

The son of Indian Charlie out of the Arch mare Playa Maya worked five furlongs over a sloppy track with stable mate Stay Thirsty in 1:01 3/5 this morning. Internal fractions of :12 4/5, :25 2/5, :37 1/5, and :49 1/5 were recorded as was a six furlong gallop out in 1:14 1/5 and seven in 1:28.

When looking at Kentucky Derby works I want a horse that really blows me away and looks like he is on tilt. To me,  this is a sign of a horse that is prepared to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby. That is why I went with Hard Spun in 2007 after he posted a :57 4/5 B five furlong bullet. The Larry Jones colt ran a heck of a race and ended up second at 10-1 behind a horse with an equally good work of :58 B.  That horse, as you probably know, was Street Sense.

Uncle Mo won the Breeders Cup Juvenile just like Street Sense. Unfortunately for trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey John Velazquez and owner Mike Repole that is likely where their similarities will end.  Nothing about his latest work tells me Uncle Mo will rebound and win the Kentucky Derby. It just wasn’t impressive at all.

The risk of taking him now far outweighs the potential reward. I would need 10-1  to bet this colt and he will be much closer to 5 or 6-1. Combine these unimpressive works with the fact that he is recovering from a GI tract infection and he becomes even less attractive.

Midnight Interlude (War Chant x Midnight Kiss by Groom Dancer)

Trainer: Bob Baffert

Jockey: Victor Espinoza

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Bob Baffert trained Kentucky Derby winners Silver Charm, Real Quiet and War Emblem. The last one, War Emblem, came in 2002 after a win in the Illinois Derby put him on the map as a rank outsider, but a contender nonetheless. This year he will have a lone charge for the most prestigious race in America. His name is Midnight Interlude.

Midnight Interlude was largely unknown until a stylish maiden win at Santa Anita on March 20. He covered the 1 mile distance in 1:36 1/5 over a wet fast track while drawing clear  by a whopping 8.5 lengths. He could have won by 12 had jockey Joel Rosario wanted to do so.

His next start came in the Santa Anita Derby. Somehow he was sent off at odds of 13-1 which really defies logic. The Santa Anita Derby was a relatively weak field of three-year-olds and Midnight Interlude was and still is a rising star in the Bob Baffert stable. He raced wide most of the way under new jockey Victor Espinoza before seizing victory in the final stages of the race from the front running Comma To The Top. Baffert’s colt needed every bit of the 9 furlongs distance to get the job done.

There are pros and cons from Midnight Interlude’s Santa Anita Derby triumph. Let’s start with the good. First, he was able to win despite having only three starts prior to the race and having made his racing debut a little over three months ago. He won in spite of that fact that he raced wide wide much of the way. The colt proved he could take off the pace and still run huge.

Now for the bad. Midnight Interlude didn’t beat much in that race. While a nice horse, Comma To The Top is second tier at best when we are talking about three-year-old routers. He didn’t exactly blow past him either even though it was clear Comma To The Top was a tired horse in the late stages of the race. He was the only horse finishing up with any punch at all.

There hasn’t been a winner of the Kentucky Derby that didn’t race as a two-year-old since Apollo did it in 1882 while the race was still in its infancy. That could change though as this is a weak field and Midnight Interlude is on the rise. He could be the “now” horse. Baffert says he can run all day and doesn’t really get tired. His pedigree points that direction too.

Jockey Victor Espinoza won the Kentucky Derby aboard the aforementioned War Emblem. He is a good and capable rider. Look for him to have Midnight Interlude racing just off the pace in the 5th or 6th position.

In the end there probably wont be much value in a win bet on Midnight Interlude. He will catch plenty of action simply because he is in the Baffert barn. He does have merits though. He is on the way up and is more likely to get the distance than not. He might be considered for the bottom of superfectas, but at this point asking him to win the Kentucky Derby is probably too much.

Nehro (Mineshaft x The Administrator by Afleet)

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Corey Nakatani

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Even the most devout follower of the Kentucky Derby trail had no idea that this colt existed until February 21. On that day he closed from 11th and12 lengths back for a 4.5 length win in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park. Even after that one it was really hard to think he might have a shot at the Run for the Roses.

Then came the Louisiana Derby. Nehro was sent off at odds of 36-1 and stalked from third before moving for the kill. He finished second beaten a neck by Pants On Fire in the $1 million race. We all realized afterward that top trainer Steve Asmussen had the Zayat owned colt in there for a reason; Nehro can run really fast!

Without enough earnings to make the Derby the colt was forced to race again in the Arkansas Derby. Not to worry as he was lightly raced and probably needed another go anyway. In his fifth career trip to the track the colt came from the clouds to miss by a neck to Archarcharch. Jockey Corey Nakatani had him moving best of all in the late stages of the race and might have caught the winner with a bit more distance.

One of things I love about Nehro is that he is improving with each and every start. Two necks cost the connections the ability to go to Churchill Downs with the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby winner. If that trend continues he will be scary good in the Kentucky Derby. It is important to find a colt that is going forward and not backward. Nehro is clearly on the way up.

The son of Mineshaft seems dynamic enough to be somewhat close to the pace, but he will do better dropping back. Jockey Corey Nakatani has never won the Roses, but he is a master nonetheless. He owns seven Breeders Cup wins as well as two Hollywood Gold Cup triumphs. He is very hungry for his first Kentucky Derby win as is Asmussen. Look for the rider nicknamed C-Nak to put in the try of his life in an attempt to get this one to the winners circle.

Nehro’s pedigree is going to be one of the best in the field this year. His sire, Mineshaft, was a multiple Grade 1 winner at route distance with victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Woodward Stakes. Sons of Mineshaft include Greenwood Cup winner A U Miner, Florida Derby winner Dialed In, Travers runner up Fly Down and Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Redding Colliery.

The Adminstrator has proved to be an excellent broodmare with stakes winning progeny like Sweet Lips, winner of the Sunshine Millions Distaff and West Chester Handicap winner Saint Marden. Nehro’s pedigree and performance on the track tells us that he is going to handle the 10 furlongs distance with ease. To put it simply, this colt will run all day.

When trying to find a Kentucky Derby horse, handicappers often look for the horse with the most upside. With a strong pedigree and improvements in each of his last three races there is plenty of reason to think Nehro may be that horse.

Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie x Playa Maya by Arch)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

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The first time I ever heard the name Uncle Mo, I was sitting at Turfway Park with a few friends taking in the races. It was August 28 and the Travers was scheduled to run later that day. Before the big races were kicked off a strong field of two-year-old maidens were set to compete. I wasn’t playing the race, but my pal Max asked me if I thought this colt, Uncle Mo, could lose. I told him I thought the colt was very likely to win, but he would get his answer in a few minutes. I wasn’t going to bet him at any rate as he was 4/5 and I wanted to save my funds for the later races anyway.

Just a few moments later Uncle Mo delivered a stunning 14 1/4 length debut win going six furlongs. He stopped the clock in 1:09 1/5 while beating nine other colts under a mere hand ride. 4/5 looked like a gift after that awe inspiring effort. To this day and throughout history it will rank as one of the easiest and best maiden wins ever.

Fast forward just a bit over seven months later and people were still asking the same question. Could Uncle Mo lose the Wood Memorial? He looked about as unbeatable as any horse has ever looked, but the world was shocked when he finished third beaten 1 1/4 lengths to Toby’s Corner. Owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher had tests performed on their star horse and it was discovered that he had a gastrointestinal tract infection.

It surely didn’t help his chances, but we cant blame his Wood Memorial loss purely on the GI tract infection. Uncle Mo was trying nine furlongs for the first time and was going two turns for just the second time in his career. He also grabbed a quarter at the start of the race. All of this with just a single race in six months. Can we really expect any three-year-old to win the Wood Memorial after having just a single start in six months? I certainly don’t think so. He clearly lacked a foundation and wasn’t ready to go the distance.

We must remember this is a colt that registered perhaps the strongest victory ever seen in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and he won the Champagne Stakes just as easily. He has got a mere five starts so far. Combine the fact that he is so lightly raced with his dominant performance in the Timely Writer going eight furlongs to start 2011 and I believe this colt hasn’t declined in talent or ability. He is every bit as good as he was last year.

The next questions for Uncle Mo are health and distance. Can he adequately recover from his infection in time to win the most prestigious horse race in America? That is a question I am not able to answer. We should know based on how he works leading up to the race. Pletcher has indicated that he will work twice before the Kentucky Derby. I’ll be watching both works intently, but most of my emphasis will be on the second work. I encourage you to do the same and draw your own conclusion.

I don’t expect distance to stop this colt. He has got too much talent for that. There is plenty of stamina from his mare, Playa Maya, to get him home going 10 panels. Her sire, Arch, has proved to be an excellent stamina influence.

A great quote from Warren Buffett comes to mind here. “A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” he said. Uncle Mo was set to be the heaviest favorite in recent Kentucky Derby history before his Wood Memorial slip up. Is one hiccup along the way enough to get you off his band wagon? It shouldn’t be. Uncle Mo is a colt in the best of hands with 2010 Kentucky Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher and he has got all the talent in the world. If he is healthy and ready to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby everyone else should be very afraid.

Archarcharch (Arch x Woodman’s Dancer by Woodman)

Trainer: William Fires

Jockey: Jon Court

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Arch won 5 of his 7 races including the 1998 Super Derby. He retired with earnings of $480,990. Although it was a short career Arch’s was a respectable one. However, his career doesn’t even begin to compare to that of his latest star progeny, Blame and Archarcharch. The former crossed the line first in the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic and the latter is after a race even bigger than that one; the Kentucky Derby.

I knew Archarcharch was going to be something special after watching him win the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds in his second start. He only beat three other horses, but he closed very strongly at a distance which he isn’t best suited to run. Short fields are typically won by the horse with early speed so the Sugar Bowl was definitely an indicator that this colt had potential.

Archarcharch’s next start came in the Smarty Jones Stakes where he flopped as the favorite, finishing a well beaten fourth after vying for the early lead. That race can be forgiven as the colt was running against a bias and trying a running style that wasn’t best for him. Knowing this I played him at 14-1 in his start which was a win the Southwest Stakes. He had a wide trip in that one, but it didn’t keep him from winning as he was clear by length from runner up J P’s Gusto at the wire.

The next start for Archarcharch came in the Rebel Stakes. This race was his first around two turns and he faced a monster named The Factor. The free wheeling Bob Baffert trainee made the front end and kept on going. Court’s colt was beaten a neck for second by Caleb’s Posse, but stayed on nicely in the latter stages of the race. He was at a disadvantage again here because The Factor was lone speed and this forced Archarcharch to be taken out of his game which is closing from midpack to well back. He took up a close spot early on and stayed there most of the way.

We really got to see Archarcharch come to life in the Arkansas Derby where he once again assumed a spot near the back of the pack. Closing into strong internal fractions of :22, :46 2/5, 1:11 1/5 and 1:36 the colt sprung into action mid way through the stretch to seize command of the race before holding off a late charging Nehro. He posted a strong 98 Beyer Speed Figure while beating perhaps the best prep field this year.

Fans of Archarcharch have plenty to be excited about as we move closer to the Run for the Roses.  The colt has is in excellent hands and possesses a running style that will be advantageous for him. The pace is prone to breaking down in the Kentucky Derby and closers almost always do well. The Oaklawn surface is very similar to that of Churchill Downs and as a two time winner at Oaklawn we know he will have no problems taking to the track at Churchill Downs and running the same type of race.

It has been clear to me all along that the goal for the connections is to have their colt peaking in the Kentucky Derby. Archarcharch is well bred, strong, fast, gritty and determined. All of those qualities combined with the expertise of trainer William Fires and jockey Jon Court will make him tough to hold off in the stretch at a great price.

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Dialed In did what I predicted he would when he rallied from last place to take the Florida Derby on Sunday. The son of Mineshaft covered the 9 furlongs distance in 1:50.07 and beat second place finisher Shackleford by a head.

The win was vindicating as he suffered his first defeat in his previous race which was against older horses in optional claiming company. Click here to see the chart for the win. The victory was very impressive and allowed him to hold his spot at #2 in our Kentucky Derby Contender rankings.

After the win Dialed In dropped to odds of 5-1 in the final Kentucky Derby Future Wager. This made him the solid second choice behind 3-1 favorite Uncle Mo. The trainer of that horse, Todd Pletcher, was not impressed by Dailed In’s victory. He cited a faster time by his filly, R Heat Lightning, going the same trip the previous day.

I don’t believe that is a fair judgment of Dialed In. Times are nearly meaningless in my eyes and I would much rather focus on the fact that he rallied from far back on one of the most speed favoring tracks in the country. Not only that, but he did it against the deepest field of three-year-olds assembled thus far in 2011.

We must remember that this colt was making just his fourth career start. The potential for growth is nearly limitless. The fact that he is lightly raced is both good and bad. Good for the aforementioned reason, but bad because the time he has to realize that potential grows smaller by the day.

I’ve got no doubt that reaching the apex of his talent before the Kentucky Derby is possible. After all, this is a horse that missed the break, blew the first turn, rallied greenly down the lane and STILL won at first asking against a full field at Churchill Downs. The fact that he could overcome all that trouble going 6.5 furlongs really says something about how magnificent this colt truly is. Let’s not forget he also came back from that win to take the Holy Bull from 15 lengths off the pace!

This colt is in great hands with trainer Nick Zito, a two time Kentucky Derby winning trainer (Strike The Gold in 1991 and Go For Gin in 1994). Jockey Julien Leparoux hasn’t taken the Roses yet in his young career, but I count him among the most capable in the country. He does especially well with late running types like Dialed In. Zito nearly won the Kentucky Derby with last year’s Florida Derby winner, Ice Box. That horse wasn’t half the horse that Dialed In is at this point. Nick Zito was a bundle of emotions after his colt’s win and he told the media that is a very special horse. Thanks Mr. Zito, I had no idea by watching him on the track.

Late running colts do very well in the Kentucky Derby and Dialed In may be prove himself to be king of the closers on the First Saturday in May.

I said on Twitter that this spot made no sense for the son of Mineshaft. Why try this race when taking on Uncle Mo in the Timely Writer or Brethren in the Tampa Bay Derby was available? The colt will have to face them sooner or later if wearing the Roses is his goal.

In the end, this race does nothing to diminish my opinion of the Robert LaPenta owned colt. We have to remember it was only his THIRD race. Not only that, but he had every right to bounce off a big effort in the Holy Bull Stakes. The pace of the race was dawdling and Dialed In had never gone two turns before, let alone 9 furlongs. Winning an allowance in March means nothing when the Florida Derby and Kentucky Derby loom large on the calender.

He is still a big and powerful colt that will get better with time. I was not a fan at 8-1 in the first Kentucky Derby future pool, but if everyone gets down on him as it appears they are I will jump all over him at a bigger number. This loss does not bother me at all.

What do you think?

Just as I predicted several days before, J.B.’s Thunder rolled to a scintillating victory in the Grade 1 Dixiana Futurity. The son of Thunder Gulch went wire to wire and won by four as the rest of the field never mounted a serious bid to topple him. Jockey Shaun Bridgmahon gave him a perfect ride on the front end by slowing things down and getting at him just a little bit towards the wire.  He returned $13.60 for a $2 win bet.

It’s possible we witnessed something special at Keeneland. I know its extremely early to be talking about this sort of thing, but J.B.’s Thunder could be a legit Kentucky Derby contender. I love his style and confidence. He’s in the perfect hands with Stall, and the colt can clearly get the distance.

The way he runs and the poise he shows reminds me of 2004 Kentucky Derby winner Smarty Jones. He has a long, long way to go before he can be compared to that horse, but their styles are very similar.

Trainer Al Stall says it’s 50/50 that the colt will run in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.  They will likely target the Delta Jackpot instead.

I cashed a $2 Pick 4 with J.B’s Thunder singled. Unfortunately, I couldnt get any prices in the other three races. I also had the Pick 3 and Win/Place money on J.B.’s Thunder. All in all, it was a pretty good day thanks to the Al Stall trainee. I wish I had boxed the exacta, because a good friend told me he loved the runner up, but I couldn’t bring myself to like him.

I’m geared up and ready for the Breeders Cup. Be sure to check back for my picks in those races!