The above video is of Mine That Bird winning the Kentucky Derby in 2009. You probably didn’t bet him to win. Are you prepared to right that wrong this year? I am more than ready and willing to help.

Gradedstakes.com will be providing full card selections for Churchill Downs along with Kentucky Derby and Oaks picks and exotic plays. I have deeply analyzed the field and I’m excited and prepared for what will occur on Saturday. I’m prepared for Friday too. I do my best handicapping on the big days and I will shine brightly on Oaks and Derby days. I encourage you to purchase my selections so that you can play along. Picks for the Oaks and Derby will be available for $5 total, and full card selections for both days are available for $10 each.

Regular visitors to this site know that I had Sidney’s Candy in all three of his wins this years. He paid $6.20 when he won the San Vicente and $9.60 in the San Felipe and Santa Anita Derby. Will I back him to take the Roses? You can find out by ordering my selections. John Sadler has him working well and he should certainly be a threat with or without my support.

The 2010 Derby trail was good to me. I had Caracortado when he won the Robert Lewis and paid $11. My highest priced winner came in a less heralded race which was the Whirlaway Stakes. I touted Peppi Knows as my top selection. He won and returned $17.40 for a $2 win bet. I narrowly missed the Florida Derby with 29-1 shot Pleasant Prince who was defeated by a nose. He returned a hefty $26.40 to place!

Those winners are just a few among many. I plan to knock it out of the park this year. You can play along and reap the benefits. I’ll even make a promise. If I don’t have the winner of either the Oaks or Derby, and I don’t hit any Pick 4′s or exotics in Oaks or Derby I will provide complimentary picks for the Preakness or Belmont Stakes. You don’t have much to lose!

Oaks & Derby Package

• Picks to WIN the KENTUCKY DERBY and KENTUCKY OAKS
• Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double play
• Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta plays for both races

Full Card Selections Package

• Includes everything from the Oaks & Derby Package
• Picks to win in every race from Churchill Downs on Friday and Saturday
• Pick 3, Pick 4, and Pick 6 plays
• assorted Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta plays

Use the drop down menu below to choose the package you would like then click “Buy Now”.

Kentucky Derby Picks

Derby & Oaks Package $5.00 Full Card Selections Package (Friday) $10.00 Full Card Selections Package (Saturday) $10.00

Todd Pletcher’s best hope for ending his 0-24 skid in the Run for the Roses may have been Eskendereya, but he still has plenty of bullets to fire. Among his entrants this year will be Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible, Sam Davis Stakes winner Rule, and Arkansas Derby runner up Super Saver. The filly Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, and Interactif are also potential chances for Todd Pletcher.

I feel sorry for jockey Johnny Velazquez. He lost Florida Derby winner Quality Road last year and now he has lost Eskendereya. It appears that he will get the mount on Devil May Care if Pletcher’s opts for the Kentucky Derby over the Kentucky Oaks. She is a big lanky filly that is blazing fast, but may not be ready for the Kentucky Derby. I’d like to see her in the Oaks.

This Kentucky Derby is wide open just like last year. Many of the top contenders have big question marks. The overall quality of the field seems sub par and could be average at best. I don’t think we have any chance of seeing a Triple Crown winner. The only horse I could see doing it would be Sidney’s Candy. We still have no idea how good he is. His ability is like a well and we still don’t know if he has come close to the bottom. Does that mean he will be my Kentucky Derby pick? Not at all, but if you told me now that one of these horses was going to sweep the TC I think he would be the one. Who do you like?

Are you counting down the days yet? I know I am. There are 20 days until the Kentucky Derby. All of the major preps except for the Lexington Stakes have been conducted. Some horses will get injured and kept out of the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, but we pretty much know who is who at this point in time. Let’s take a look at my top contenders.

#1 Eskendereya- If this colt were a character from a movie he would be Clubber Lang from Rocky III. He reminds me of this quote from Mickey in that movie: “No, he ain’t just another fighter! This guy is a wrecking machine! And he’s hungry!”. My prediction for the Kentucky Derby? …..Pain! This son of Giant’s Causeway has a gun in a knife fight.

#2 Sidney’s Candy- I’ve said for a while that we don’t know how good this colt really is. Even after winning the Santa Anita Derby I STILL don’t think we have seen the bottom of him. I doubt he is as good as my #1 selection and his running style may compromise his chances. Can Talamo get him to rate? It might not matter if he is “just that good”.

#3 Lookin at Lucky- This colt’s name is quite an oxymoron. He has won 6 of 8 races, and if not for two horrible trips he might be undefeated. I love the way he still rallied to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby despite being pushed into the rail early in the race. He has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs. He is in great hands with Bob Baffert and big money rider Garrett Gomez.

#4 Paddy O’ Prado- I thought he was gone in the stretch of the Bluegrass Stakes until Stately Victor totally freaked and won the race. He is steadily improving and I just have a funny feeling that this colt is for real. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has a great record in the Kentucky Derby.

#5 Rule- The setup of the Florida Derby worked against him. I was nearly 100% sure a closer wouldn’t win that race. I loved his 2010 debut win when he took the Sam Davis Stakes. I’m not sure he is a candidate for top honors, but I can see him running a big race.

#6 Dublin- If he wasn’t in D Wayne Lukas’s barn I probably wouldn’t give him a shot. He had a perfect chance to win Arkansas Derby, but failed to go for the jugular late in the race. Monitor his training in the days leading up to the race.

#7 Awesome Act- He looked poised for a big run in the Wood Memorial turning for home, but when Leparoux unleashed him there wasn’t much there. However, I believe he lost a shoe at the start of the race. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give a good impression of himself on Kentucky Derby day.

#8 Noble’s Promise- His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby sure didn’t help his chances. Ken McPeek is still on the fence in terms of deciding to race him in the Run for the Roses.

#9 Super Saver- Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt always give a good account of himself. His running style will probably hurt his chances on the First Saturday in May.

#10 Ice Box- I’m wary of this colt because he won the Florida Derby closing into a tough pace. How will he do when the track doesn’t play in his favor?

So there you have it, my top ten contenders for the Kentucky Derby. This list is almost  certain to change between now and May 1. Kentucky Derby betting will be very interesting, exciting, and fun this year. Who do you like? Leave a comment and join the conversation!

The favored Lookin at Lucky had a troubled trip and checked sharply after bumping into the rail. He was able to mount a belated rally to finish third. Trainer Bob Baffert was very upset with jockey Garrett Gomez after the race and mockingly suggested that he watch Jerry Bailey’s DVD about riding races. The two have since patched things up. Gomez attempted to fight jockey Victor Espinoza whom he blamed for the incident after the race.

Gomez claims that Espinoza was seeking some sort of revenge, and Baffert seems to believe the same. It appears Espinoza may be upset that he lost the mount on Misremembered who won the Santa Anita Handicap after Victor was replaced. Personally, I have to blame Gomez for this whole mess. If your horse is as good as you think he is then you should’ve been on the outside avoiding trouble. Bob Baffert believes the same. Luckily, Lucky has the earnings to make the Kentucky Derby. This will be a minor set back. The bigger problem may be the strapping colt Eskendereya who won the Wood Memorial with even greater ease than Sidney’s Candy won the Santa Anita Derby.

Eskendereya won the Wood Memorial in hand underneath jockey John Velazquez. He dispatched a quality field that included Gotham Stakes winner Awesome Act, Tampa Bay Derby runner up Schoolyard Dreams, and Jackson Bend. The son of Giant’s Causeway  reminds me a lot of Big Brown, except that I think he could be better when its all said and done. Both toyed with their competition. Big Brown had a gun in a knife fight when he won the Kentucky Derby and it appears the same could hold  true for Eskendereya. If he runs like he did in the Wood Memorial on the First Saturday in May nobody will get near him.

As a handicapper I’ll most likely try to play against him. The Kentucky Derby is without a doubt the hardest race in the world to win. While I believe Eskendereya has similar qualities as Big Brown, he may also end up like Bellamy Road who won the Wood even more impressively than Eskendereya did before finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby.

What are your thoughts on this weekends races? Who do you like for the Kentucky Derby? Leave a comment below and share your thoughts.

The Kentucky Derby is almost here.  The First Saturday in May is one month from Thursday. Several key preps have yet to be conducted and a lot will shake out between now and then. Let’s take a look at my top 5 contenders at this point. Feel free to share your thoughts and input by leaving a comment.

#1 Lookin at Lucky- The Juvenile Champ has done very little wrong in his career. He has only lost once and that was due to a poor trip. He got up to take the Rebel Stakes in his last start despite having to overcome a horrid trip. I love the son of Smart Strike’s breeding, and he is in excellent hands with Bob Baffert and Garrett Gomez. Look for him in the Santa Anita Derby.

#2 Odysseus- I absolutely love the Tampa Bay Derby victory. He looked like he was dead in the water turning for home, but somehow came on again to win the race. Before that he crushed an allowance field by 15 lengths. I’m not very sure how well he is suited for the distance. He is a sons of Malibu Moon. I expect to see him compete in the Bluegrass Stakes before heading to Churchill Downs.

#3 Awesome Act- He looked great skipping over the track in his Gotham victory. It appears that the son of Awesome Again is getting good at the right time. His Gotham win was his first start of the year. Prior to that he was 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Jeremy Noseda. Look for him in the Wood Memorial.

#4 Eskendereya- Most people will disagree with me having this colt at 4th and that is fine. I want to see him reproduce his freakish effort in the Fountain of Youth before I get on board. If he wins the Wood Memorial like that I’ll hop on the band wagon. Of course I’ll also fear he is a Bellamy Road 2.0 (Bellamy Road crushed the Wood Memorial field before finishing 7th in the Run for the Roses). John Velazquez rides for Todd Pletcher. He will be in the Wood Memorial.

#5 Sidney’s Candy- It’s hard to say how good this colt really is. I love his easy win over Grade 2 company two races back. After that he easily won the Grade 2 San Felipe, but did so after setting fractions that were slow. How will he respond under pressure? We will find out in the Santa Anita Derby. Joe Talamo pilots this son of Candy Ride for John Sadler.

Who are your picks for the Kentucky Derby right now? I’d love to know. Leave a comment below.

The NTRA Moment of the Year has everyone reflecting on what a wonderful year 2009 has been. We got to see two magnificent females win many Grade 1 races, and a shocker on the First Saturday in May. This year was far and away more  exciting than the one that preceded it. I’m already looking forward to 2010, but its always nice to take some time to reflect. What do you think was the best or most memorable moment of 2009? For me, it is an easy choice. Mine That Bird winning the Kentucky Derby.

As long as I live, I will never forget the utter shock I felt as Calvin Borel surged up the rail on Mine That Bird to win going away in the Kentucky Derby. I had no idea who the horse was at first glance, and I think the same can be said for the track announcer. I spent many hours of the following days trying to figure how it could’ve possibly happened. A horse that had lost his last race at Sunland had won the Kentucky Derby. I also recall trainer Benny Wooley hobbling to the winners circle, acting as if he wasn’t surprised a single bit. After that happened I can truly say that ANYTHING can happen in this game.

After Mine That Bird’s victory, three other races come to mind. The first would be Well Armed drawing off to a very easy victory in the Dubai World Cup under jockey Aarron Gryder. I felt he had a great chance to win at 10-1, but instead of betting the last $10 in my online wagering account on him to win, I wheeled him over the field. Unfortunately for me, one of the longest shots in the race ran second, and I didn’t have him. If I had just $4 more I would’ve hit the $1 exacta for $500. Needless to say, that was a tough one to miss.

Another moment that comes to mind this year is Rachel Alexandra countless awe inspiring races. She ran several strong races, but the two that impressed me the most were  the Kentucky Oaks and the Woodward. True, the Oaks field wasn’t the greatest ever assembled, but she couldn’t have won any easier than she did. The margin of victory was simply incredible. I love the Woodward also. Rachel Alexandra set fast fractions, and it looked like she would be passed coming for home. I had a bad feeling in my stomach as I watched live, thinking the filly would finally lose. However, she re rallied and got the win. She is truly one of the greatest fillies to have ever raced.

Just as Rachel Alexandra brightened 2009, so did Zenyatta. While I opposed her in most of her races from a wagering standpoint, that doesn’t take away from her greatness. I simply couldn’t take her at short odds, and I didn’t think she could win the Classic. I couldn’t have been any more wrong as she stormed down the lane in the Breeders Cup Classic in what was a visually easy win. We were truly blessed this year to see a filly AND mare that will be counted among the all time greats.

What made 2009 special for you? What is your moment of the year? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

My article for the Kentucky Derby is going to be exclusive to http://www.bettorsworld.com/ so I can’t post it here. Once the article is up friday morning, I’ll add the link here. However, I can add my picks, but for elaboration I ask that you wait just a little longer.

UPDATE: You can find my Kentucky Derby article by clicking here.

Winner: Colonel John

Second: Pyro

Others: Big Brown, Monba, Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Adriano

Betting the Derby on $100:

$10 ($20 total) Kentucky Oaks/Kentucky Derby Double: Pure Clan/Colonel John, Pyro

$1 Trifecta ($40 total): Colonel John, Pyro/Colonel John, Pyro, Big Brown, Monba, Court Vision/Colonel John, Pyro, Big Brown, Monba, Court Vision, Denis of Cork, Adriano

$5 Exacta ($20 total): Colonel John/Pyro, Court Vision, Monba, Big Brown

$6 Win-Place-Show ($18 total): Colonel John

$2 Long shot Win: Court Vision

The biggest day in horse racing is drawing nigh as ever second passes. I hope you’ve done your homework, but if not I’m here for you. I’ve narrowed my list down to 5 horses. As the works keep coming in, and once I analyze the form, my picks are likely to change. Make sure you check back for the latest information.

Kentucky Derby Top 5

1) Big Brown- I love the last work for this guy in which he breezed 5 furlongs in an easy 58 3/5 seconds. I like his chances in the Kentucky Derby. His most valuable tool will be his tactical speed, mark my words. This is what sets him apart from other horses like him in the past. He is without a doubt the horse to beat.

2) Colonel John- Hard to find anything wrong with this son of Tiznow. He exploded past the competition in the Santa Anita Derby, and looks like he can run all day. Dirt should be a non issue according to trainer Eoin Harty, because he zipped over Churchill Downs track in 57 4/5 for 5 furlongs. He also galloped out very well. There is plenty to like about this one.

3) Pyro- Despite his poor finish in the Bluegrass its hard to forget about this guy. His wins in the Risen Star and Louisiana Derby were very impressive. Distance is no longer a worry from my viewpoint, considering his explosive style. Let’s not forgot that this one was training with Curlin earlier in his career. Expect Asmussen to have this horse ready, no excuses if he loses.

4) Adriano- I’m liking Edgar Prado’s mount more as time goes on. I can remember leaving Turfway Park thinking that this race would have little impact on the Kentucky Derby. Time changes all things, including opinions. Prado was quoted as saying this horse’s acceleration reminds him of Barbaro. If he right, he could accelerate right into the winners circle.

5) Monba- Showed an amazing turn of foot in the Cash Call Futurity when he accelerated from the back of the pack to capture fourth. I loved the stalking trip he showed in the Bluegrass, and Ramon Dominguez getting the mount is all the more encouraging. Watch out for this son of Maria’s Mon. Maybe Pletcher can finally get his Derby win?

The Tampa Bay Derby provided quite a shocker on Saturday. Previously undefeated, but still champion War Pass didn’t fire and struggled to finish the race. My father suggested something was amiss when Nick Zito declined an interview with TVG prior to the race. Perhaps he knew War Pass wasn’t ready? While I consider Zito one of the best around, I must question the wisdom of bringing the 2 year old champion back in an allowance. This suggests to me that he wasn’t ready to throw him to the wolves, but had no choice Saturday. I hope I’m wrong about this because I am HUGE fan of War Pass.

We should consider a few things about the race. For starters I have heard from a few people that some horses don’t handle Tampa Bay Downs the first time they race over it. Another factor is that he was pinched at the break. This prevented him from running to the front and pouring it. Nick Zito was reported on NTRA.com saying that he sustained some cuts to his left leg. I have some sneaking suspicions that War Pass may have bled. Regardless, I believe and hope he will be fine and give ‘em hell when the first Saturday in May arrives!

On a brighter note I was very impressed by Sierra Sunset in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes. He raced three wide and ended up capturing the race by 3 lengths while earning a Beyer number of 99. He won’t have it easy in the Arkansas Derby when he races rival Denis of Cork for the second time. Denis of Cork defeated Sierra Sunset in the Southwest Stakes. The latter has obviously improved since then so it will be quite a race.

I’ll be heading up to Turfway Park this Saturday for the Grade 2 Lanes End Stakes. Last year’s edition produced Hard Spun the second place finisher in the Kentucky Derby, and Sedgefield the fifth place finisher. This will be my first time viewing the Lanes End live. If it’s as good as the Kentucky Cup I’m going to have a blast. I’ll try and take a camera and get some good pictures to post here. Check back for more, and as always thanks for reading!

On October 4, 2005 Barbaro was entered to race 1 mile on the turf at Delaware Park with Jockey Caraballo J C aboard. He went off at odds of 7-1. He obliterated the field by 8 ½ lengths finishing the race in 1:35 4/5 and earning a beyer speed figure of 73. Trainer Michael Matz must’ve gasped as Barbaro came down the stretch winning with ease. As an eerie sign of things to come his DRF note for this race reads: “hard to load”.

He returned to racing November 14, 2005 in the Laurel Futurity. He entered the race at 2.80-1, but he should have been 1/5. Barbaro toyed with the field until the half mile pole, and then exploded like a rocket. He went on to win by 8 lengths in what Andrew Beyer says is possibly the best turf race by a 2 year old of all time. He eclipsed the track record with a winning time of 1:40 for the 1 1/16 distance. His beyer number for the race was gigantic at 102. Barbaro was among the top 2 year olds in the nation. The secret was out.

Barbaro’s next attempt came on January 1, 2006 in the Tropical Park Derby (Grade 3T). This would be his first time in graded stakes company. He went off the 2-5 favorite. Barbaro rated in second as Mr. Sober ridden by Eddie Castro showed the way, setting a ¼ of 23 1/5. By the half mile marker Mr. Sober had opened up 2 ½ lengths on Barbaro. The half mile tote board read 47 4/5 for the half mile. Could Barbaro catch him after he ran such modest fractions? Absolutely is the answer. Barbaro menaced to his outside, and entered a duel with Mr. Sober as they hit the stretch. He easily overpowered the 15-1 longshot. He went on to win by 3 ¾ lengths for new jockey Edgar Prado. He earned a beyer figure of 97 for the race. It would be on to the dirt for the son of Dynaformer.

It was February 4, 2006 and Barbaro was at Gulfstream Park for the Holy Bull (Grade 3). The track had come up sloppy, but with a Tomlinson number of 366 Michael Matz had no reason to worry about his colt’s chances. Future Grade 1 winner Flashy Bull and future Grade 2 winner Sunriver were amongst his challengers. They would be no match for Barbaro.

Once they reached the quarter pole Doctor Decherd had the lead, with Barbaro in second, Flashy Bull in third, and Sunriver following in fourth. Barbaro slowly picked away at the lead. He captured it as they left the back stretch. Flashy Bull loomed large to his outside. As the hit the top of the stretch Dr. Decherd hadn’t thrown in the towel. He recaptured the lead momentarily before Barbaro burst past him. Flashy Bull faded as Great Point made a brilliant stretch run. Lucky for Barbaro, there wasn’t enough track left for Great Point. His beyer figure was a respectable 95. Barbaro was now 4 for 4.

Just under 2 months later Barbaro returned for the Florida Derby. He would be racing from post position 10 and went off at odds of 8-5. This race, like his last would take place at Gulfstream Park.

Sharp Humor led to the quarter pole, while Barbaro raced along in second as he usually did. Sharp Humor continued to lead to the half mile marker, and Barbaro inched closer with every stride. He looked Sharp Humor in the eye as they dueled in the stretch. The track announcer called out “It is Barbaro to the final furlong, he is a neck in front of Sharp Humor who WILL NOT go away!”. But as he always had before Barbaro took control and won the race by a neck. He earned a career best beyer figure of 103. All the prep work had been finished. It was onward to the Kentucky Derby. It was onward to greatness.

The first Saturday in May had arrived. Michael Matz had been criticized for leaving 5 weeks between Barbaro’s last race and this one by the so called “experts”. This Derby was not unlike the others. The day’s festivities had been wonderful, along with the Singing of “My Old Kentucky Home”. Tom Durkin would call the race as usual.

California horse, and Santa Anita Derby winner Brother Derek was the horse to beat in the minds of most. He had been brilliant in all of his races and was seemingly invincible. Had he not drawn post position 18 he would’ve been the post time favorite. That title belonged to Illinois Derby winner Sweetnorthernsaint. Matz colt Barbaro was the second choice at post time.

Bluegrass Stakes winner Sinister Minister went to the lead, along with Keyed Entry. Stable mate’s Showing Up and Barbaro were third and fourth, respectively. As they approached the ¾ pole Sweetnorthernsaint advanced along the rail, while Barbaro moved into the clear, and as they hit the stretch he seized control of the lead. Edgar Prado looked back to find that Barbaro was in a race of his own. He continued to widen his liden. First it was 4 lengths, then 5, and eventually 6 1/2 as Barbaro crossed the wire all by himself. Tom Durkin called out “And it is all Barbaro in a sublime performance, he runs away from them all”.

Barbaro had just won the Kentucky Derby, but he had done more than that. He made the best 3 year olds in the world look like fools. He absolutely positively destroyed them. Barbaro was the best horse that year, or another other year. It is tragic the way his life ended. Although this was terrible event good also came from it. Veterinary advances were made in the attempt to save his life. He brought many new fans to a sport that desperately needs them. A memorial fund has been established in his honor to award scholarships to students going into the veterinary field. This, combined with his legendary triumph in the Kentucky Derby allowed Barbaro to live on. He lives on as an immortal champion in our hearts and minds. Rest in peace Barbaro.

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