2012 Kentucky Oaks
**Full card picks for Kentucky Oaks & Kentucky Derby**
#1 On Fire Baby 4-1 (Smoke Glacken x Ornate by Gilded Time) hasn’t raced since March 10 and will be going further than her pedigree suggests she can go. The very talented lass is a two time graded stakes winner at Curchill Downs.
#2 Grace Hall 5-2 (Empire Maker x Season’s Greeting by Ezzoud) was last seen crushing the competition in the Gulfstream Park Oaks. She is bred to run for days and figures to get a favorable set up; very dangerous.
#3 Summer Applause 15-1 (Harlan’s Holiday x Summer Exhibition by Royal Academy) raced wide last out while just missing in the Fair Grounds Oaks. The works are solid and she is very similar to the favorite at a much better price.
#4 Eden’s Moon 12-1 (Malibu Moon x Eden’s Causeway by Giant’s Causeway) Very talented filly was out finished last out in the Santa Anita Oaks. That was only her third race and she could experience marked improvement this time around. Bob Baffert does very well on Derby weekend.
#5 Hard Not To Like 20-1 (Hard Spun x Like A Gem by Tactical Cat) will be racing on the dirt for the first time. Pedigree suggests she will handle it well. Figures to move up in her second start of the year after being second in the Ashland Stakes. Best price play in the race.
#6 Broadway’s Alibi 4-1 (Vindication x Broadway Gold by Seeking The Gold) is an incredibly quick speed ball that has won four in a row around a single turn. The big question is whether or not she can stretch her speed around two turns. Pedigree suggests that she can, but this is a tough spot to try.
#7 Sacristy 50-1 (Pulpit x Christies Treasure by Belong To Me) sprinter is probably going further than she can in this spot. Speed and fade.
#8 Jemima’s Pearl 10-1 (Distorted Humor x Jemima by Owington) couldn’t get by Amie’s Dini in the Fantasy Stakes, but has trained forwardly since that effort. She gave Derby favorite Bodemeister a run for his money in their latest work. Baffert won this race last year.
#9 Believe You Can 10-1 (Proud Citizen x El Fasto by El Prado) Went gate to wire in the Fair Ground Oaks last out. Her works are quite quick and trainer Larry Jones won this race with another daughter of Proud Citizen, Proud Spell, back in 2008.
#10 And Why Not 15-1 (Street Cry x Alchemist by AP Indy) Regally bred filly is working well and has turned more than a few heads in the morning. Despite that, she is hard to like because of bad form. Maybe in the future she can put it all together.
#11 Karlovy Vary 20-1 (Dynaformer x The Right Pew by Pulpit) won the Ashland over Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf champion Stephanie’s Kitten when last seen. She is an unknown commodity on dirt, but if she can transfer her Poly Track form then she will be live at a big price.
#12 Colonial Empress 50-1 (Empire Maker x Colonella by Pleasant Colony) has no business in this race. She is still a maiden and was last seen finishing last by 17 lengths in the Fair Ground Oaks. Would be the biggest upset in the history of the race.
#13 Amie’s Dini 10-1 (Bandini x Run Kate Run by Cherokee Run) rags to riches filly was purchased for just $3k. She chased home the freakishly fast Mamma Kimbo in the Fantasy Stakes when last seen. Will need a good break from the outside.
#14 Yara (Put It Back x Ashlee’s Lady by Gilded Time) pulled a shocking upset over Grace Hall in the Davona Dale, but was knocked out by Grace Hall in the Gulfstream Park Oaks in her last trip to the track. This is probably further than she wants to go.
Gradedstakes.com Social Media