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Kentucky Derby Top 10 List

March 30, 2010 By Leave a Comment

The Kentucky Derby is rapidly approaching. Several of the top prep races have already been contested and several of the horses that will be in that gate on the First Saturday in May have already had their final preparatory race. Plenty of others have not so there is still much to be decided. Let’s take a look at some of the top contenders.

#1 Lookin at Lucky- The defending juvenile champion has done very little wrong in his career. If not for a poor trip in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile he would be undefeated. He is a son of Smart Strike so his pedigree is top notch. Trainer Bob Baffert has taken the roses three times (Real Quiet, Silver Charm, War Emblem), which means this colt couldn’t be in better hands. I love the fact that his highest Beyer Speed Figure was recorded on dirt when he won the Rebel Stakes after a trip from hell. Look for a huge effort in the Santa Anita Derby if that is his next race.

#2 Odysseus- Have you seen this son of Malibu Moon’s last two races? If not then I suggest you head over to YouTube and check him out. He crushed an allowance field by 15 lengths two back at Tampa Bay Downs. After that win he returned in the Tampa Bay Derby. He appeared finished at the top of the stretch, but came on again to register a narrow victory. He is visually impressive and “looks the part” so to speak. He is expected to race in the Bluegrass Stakes. Be on the watch for him.

#3 Sidney’s Candy- I love the way this horse won easily in his last two races. He took the San Vicente easily. He returned for another easy score in the San Felipe. The latter was his first try around two turns. Some question his ability to stay, but I don’t think he will have a problem being a son of Candy Ride. It’s hard to say how good he is at this point, but he will get the acid test next out in the Santa Anita Derby.

#4 Awesome Act- I love the way he skipped over the track in his Gotham win. That was his first race of the year. The son of Awesome Again seems to be getting good at the right time for his European connections. He ended his two-year-old campaign with a fourth place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf. Look for him in the Wood Memorial.

#5 Eskendereya- This colt is atop many Kentucky Derby lists, but I have to see him reproduce his Fountain of Youth effort before I get on board. I view him as a Bellamy Road type of colt in the sense that while Bellamy Road was an incredible runner, he didn’t show up on Kentucky Derby day. I can see that happening with this one. If he impresses in the Wood Memorial I’ll hop on the bandwagon, but until then I prefer the top 4 over him.

#6 Interactif- He is a stakes winner on the turf for trainer Todd Pletcher. His first start over the synthetic resulted in a second place finish behind Sidney’s Candy in the San Felipe. He was moving well late despite the fact that he had no fractions to chase. He will return in the Bluegrass Stakes.

#7 Schoolyard Dreams- I loved his big move in the Tampa Bay Derby. He was narrowly defeated by Odysseus in that race. He is handled by Derek Ryan who trained 2009 Illinois Derby winner Musket Man. His next start will come in the Wood Memorial.

#8 Jackson Bend- He is in perfect hands with Nick Zito. He ran into a horse that wasn’t going to lose last out when he was second to Eskendereya in the Fountain of Youth. It will be interesting to see how Calvin Borel handles him in the Wood.

#9 Caracortado- How can you knock a gelding that has lost just once? Throw in the fact that he lost due to a slow pace and he looks even better. I love the way he rolled up on the pacesetters in his Robert B. Lewis win. He will need a strong performance in the Santa Anita Derby to stay on track for the First Saturday in May.

#10 Noble’s Promise- The son of Cuvee was last seen finishing a close second to Lookin at Lucky in the Rebel Stakes. He could make some noise in his next start which in all likelihood will be the first time he hasn’t competed against “Lucky” since his triumph in the Futurity at Keeneland.

Follow the 2010 Kentucky Derby contenders and the upcoming prep races next week on Stakes Tracker on Horse Racing Nation:
  • 2010 Santa Anita Derby
  • 2010 Wood Memorial
  • 2010 Illinois Derby

This list will change drastically after the Wood Memorial, Bluegrass Stakes, and Illinois Derby are conducted this weekend. I firmly believe that the winner of the Kentucky Derby will come from one of those two races, or the Santa Anita Derby. I’m putting very little stock in the Lanes End, Florida Derby, Sunland Derby, and Louisiana Derby. I believe the winners of those races are a cut below those on this list. The most important question still remains; who do YOU like?!

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Kentucky Derby Top 5 List

March 29, 2010 By 10 Comments

The Kentucky Derby is almost here.  The First Saturday in May is one month from Thursday. Several key preps have yet to be conducted and a lot will shake out between now and then. Let’s take a look at my top 5 contenders at this point. Feel free to share your thoughts and input by leaving a comment.

#1 Lookin at Lucky- The Juvenile Champ has done very little wrong in his career. He has only lost once and that was due to a poor trip. He got up to take the Rebel Stakes in his last start despite having to overcome a horrid trip. I love the son of Smart Strike’s breeding, and he is in excellent hands with Bob Baffert and Garrett Gomez. Look for him in the Santa Anita Derby.

#2 Odysseus- I absolutely love the Tampa Bay Derby victory. He looked like he was dead in the water turning for home, but somehow came on again to win the race. Before that he crushed an allowance field by 15 lengths. I’m not very sure how well he is suited for the distance. He is a sons of Malibu Moon. I expect to see him compete in the Bluegrass Stakes before heading to Churchill Downs.

#3 Awesome Act- He looked great skipping over the track in his Gotham victory. It appears that the son of Awesome Again is getting good at the right time. His Gotham win was his first start of the year. Prior to that he was 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Julien Leparoux rides for trainer Jeremy Noseda. Look for him in the Wood Memorial.

#4 Eskendereya- Most people will disagree with me having this colt at 4th and that is fine. I want to see him reproduce his freakish effort in the Fountain of Youth before I get on board. If he wins the Wood Memorial like that I’ll hop on the band wagon. Of course I’ll also fear he is a Bellamy Road 2.0 (Bellamy Road crushed the Wood Memorial field before finishing 7th in the Run for the Roses). John Velazquez rides for Todd Pletcher. He will be in the Wood Memorial.

#5 Sidney’s Candy- It’s hard to say how good this colt really is. I love his easy win over Grade 2 company two races back. After that he easily won the Grade 2 San Felipe, but did so after setting fractions that were slow. How will he respond under pressure? We will find out in the Santa Anita Derby. Joe Talamo pilots this son of Candy Ride for John Sadler.

Who are your picks for the Kentucky Derby right now? I’d love to know. Leave a comment below.

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My 2009 Eclipse Award Ballot; Rachel Alexandra HOY

January 7, 2010 By 6 Comments

The Eclipse Award nominees are finally out. The Eclipse Awards are the highest honor in thoroughbred racing. Winners are voted on by the people at the NTRA (National Thoroughbred Racing Assocation), Daily Racing Form, and National Turf Writers Assocation. I wish that I could have a say, but that is not meant to be this year. Perhaps in the future I will get a chance. Here’s a look at who I would pick in each category. Feel free to leave a comment and share your thoughts!

Horse of the Year: Rachel Alexandra- This one is a no brainer for me. The three-year-old filly won 8 races and 5 Grade 1 events this year. She beats the boys 3 times, including in the Preakness where she became the first horse to ever win from the 13 post position. She left Summer Bird in her wake when she took the Haskell Invitational. The two times that she faced her gender in Grade 1 events this year she won by a combined 39 1/2 lengths. The daughter of Medaglia d’Oro even beat older males when she took down the Woodward Stakes. Her campaign this year not only makes her Horse of the Year, but the greatest three-year-old filly in the history of the sport.

Two-Year-Old Male: Lookin’ At Lucky- This is an easy choice. “Lucky” is one of the early favorites for the Kentucky Derby and rightfully so. He couldn’t have won any easier last out in the CashCall Futurity where he beat fellow nominee Noble’s Promise. Vale of York can’t get my nod because I don’t believe in giving an Eclipse Award on the basis of a single race.

Two-Year-Old Female: She Be Wild- The Wayne Catalano filly got a perfect ride to slip up the rail and win the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. She also ran a strong race to finish second in the Alcaibidies this year. Blind Luck and Hot Dixie are also nominated. I could easily envision both of those fillies being better when its all said and done, but at this point in time it has to go to She Be Wild. I feel like Hot Dixie Chick is the one to watch out of these three. I look forward to watching all of these fillies leading up to next years Kentucky Oaks.

Three-Year-Old Male: Summer Bird- This is an easy pick. The son of Birdstone took the Belmont Stakes, Travers, and Jockey Club Gold Cup this year. He also bested Mine That Bird and Quality Road in head to head matchups. I feel like at this point in time Quality Road has surpassed him, but based on their 2009 resumes Summer Bird was clearly the better horse.

Three-Year-Old Filly: Rachel Alexandra- Do I really need to say more? Check out the Horse of the Year section above for more information on this filly.

Older Male: Gio Ponti- This is a highly competitive division although 2009 was a down year for the older horses. I’ll go with Gio Ponti on the virtue of 4 Grade 1 victories and a runner up performance when switching surfaces in the Breeders Cup Classic. Einstein put together a good year, but lost twice to Gio Ponti. I feel like if Einstein had won the Donn and Clark he could’ve got my vote. I’m excited to watch Gio Ponti compete in 2010.

Older Female: Zenyatta- Anyone who doesn’t vote for Zenyatta to be Champion Older Female deserves to have their voting priveleges revoked. While she was lightly raced and beat soft fields most of the year, she answered the bell in the Breeders Cup Classic. The five-year-old mare would be a serious threat for Horse of the Year in my mind if she had taken on tougher competition other than in the Classic and won outside of California.

Male Sprinter: Kodiak Kowboy- If you had asked me earlier in the year, I would’ve said Zensational was a shoo-in. However, he couldn’t get the job done in the Breeders Cup Sprint. Kodiak Kowboy skipped the race, but had wins in the Carter, Vosburgh, and Cigar Mile in 2009. He only finished off the board once in 2009. Retired now at the age of 5, this horse was extremely consistent throughout his career. It’s rare that you find a horse that can win at the top level at 2, 3, and 4.

Female Sprinter: Informed Decision- She had her doubters in the Breeders Cup Filly & Mare Sprint, but she dismissed Ventura en route to an impressive win. In my eyes, that race sealed the title for her. She won 6 of 7 races in 2009, including 3 Grade 1 races. She is a polytrack specialist, and I would never bet against her on that surface. Informed Decision was also tough on “real” dirt where she won the Humana Distaff, but her only loss came on the surface in the Ballerina Stakes. Her 2009 campaign will be hard to equal in 2010.

Male Turf Horse: Gio Ponti- I’d like to give the nod to Presious Passion, but Gio Ponti had the better year. He has nearly unbeatable on the grass this year.

Female Turf Horse: Ventura- While she couldn’t get it done on Breeders Cup day, this mare was very consistent in 2009. She won two Grade 1 races on the turf this year. Her best performance came in the Woodbine Mile. I’d love to give the nod to Goldikova or Midday, but one race doesn’t make a year.

Owner: Mr. and Mrs. Jerome S. Moss- You have to give this couple the award after they stepped up to the plate and entered Zenyatta in the Breeders Cup Classic. Regardless of whether or not Zenyatta wins Horse of the Year, this took guts. I salute them for stepping up and helping the sport.

Breeder: I’m fairly ignorant to this category so I will refrain from commenting.

Trainer:  Bob Baffert- There is something to be said for a guy that finishes 3rd in earning behind a guy who has nearly 6 times as many starts as he does. Bob Baffert is the most prolific trainer in thoroughbred racing right now. Anything he touches turns to gold. He had a great 2009 thanks to Indian Blessing, Lookin at Lucky, Gabby’s Golden Goose, Pioneerof The Nile, and many more. I predict 2010 will be even better.

Jockey: Ramon Dominguez- This was one of the toughest picks I had to make. Ramon Dominguez, Garrett Gomez, and Julien Leparoux all had wonderful years. I had to go with Ramon Dominguez. He dominated with a massive 23.6% winning percentage and he finished in the money 56% of the time. He amassed earnings of 18,348,422 for 2009. He won the Spring/Fall riding title at Belmont Park, and also took the title at Saratoga. I congratulate him in an excellent 2009 campaign.

Apprentice Jockey: Christian Santiago-Reyes- I’m a big follower of California racing, and I love betting this guy. He has broke into the big time fast and he is here to stay. He is fearless in the irons and I expect to see him winning big time races very soon.

Who do you like to win an Eclipse Award? Leave a comment and lets discuss!

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Lookin At Lucky tops field of 8 for CashCall Futurity

December 17, 2009 By 2 Comments

 

Breeders Cup Juvenile runner up Lookin At Lucky is the most notable of eight entries for the CashCall Futurity this weekend at Hollywood Park. Lookin At Lucky is trained by Bob Baffert who has won the race several times including last year with Pioneerof The Nile. The race is for open for two-year-olds and is raced at the distance of 8.5 furlongs. The purse is a whopping $750,000 and the winner will have more than enough earnings to start in next years Kentucky Derby.

Formerly known as the Hollywood Futurity, the race has produced six Kentucky Derby winners since it began in 1981. These winners are Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand, Alysheba, Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, and Giacomo. Other notable winners include Snow Chief, AP Indy, Best Pal, and Point Given. 1994 winner Afternoon Deelites holds the stakes record with a time of 1:40.74. Alex Solis and Laffit Pincay, Jr. share the record for most wins by a jockey at a 4. Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas are tied for most wins by a trainer at 4, and a win this year would give Baffert sole possession of this title.

Lookin At Lucky was a perfect four for four with wins in the Norfolk Stakes and Del Mar Futurity before just missing longshot winner Vale of York in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Bob Baffert says that the son of Smart Strike is the best two-year-old he has trained in the last five years. His pedigree is very solid and he has showed tons of ability. If he is able to continue progressing at the rate he has then he will be a force not only in this race, but on the First Saturday in May. He has done little wrong thus far in his short career, and I expect him to take care of business in this one.

His best competition will likely come in the form of Dixiana Breeders Futurity winner Noble’s Promise who finished third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last out.  Noble’s Promise is a son of Saratoga Special winner Cuvee. He has a nice stalking style and I expect him to move forward in this spot. He looked very good striking the lead in the stretch drive of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but was unable to hold off Vale of York and Lookin At Lucky while losing by about three quarters of a length. Robby Albarado will replace Willie Martinez in the irons. I must critizicize this move, because Martinez has done very well with the colt. He could give the colt a ride that is as good or better than Albarado will. Look for him to run a big race.

I was very surprised when Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity runner up Make Music For Me finished sixth in a maiden special weight last out. The colt is tremedously talented, but his closing style was rendered useless after a dawdling pace was set. He will need a fast pace to run well here and winning is going to be a lot to ask. I think it would be more useful to get a win under his belt in a lesser race before trying the big boys again. However, make no mistake about it; this colt will be a stakes winner before its all said and done. Mike Smith will ride, and he does well with this style of runner.

Bob Baffert will also send out The Program and Marcello. Both appear to be a notch below the top two contenders, but there is no telling when a horse is going to “wake up” when they are this young. Marcello was second in the Grade 3 Generous Stakes over the turf course last out. He has won twice over synthetic surfaces, but will need to move forward to make an impact here. Jose Valdivia will ride. The Program was most recently second in an allowance after breaking his maiden. Victor Espinoza will replace Martin Garcia in the irons.

Seattle Ruler, Brady Blue Eyes, and Wildlee Special round out the field. I’ll go with Lookin at Lucky as my top pick. I think he is just too good for this field. Who do you like?!

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