May 21, 2012

Met Mile means big stud money for winner

The Metropolitan Handicap is a fixture of the racing scene dating back to the 1890’s. This one-turn one mile race is known as the “stallion” maker, as its Grade 1 status and one-turn mile distance are major plusses to American breeders.  This year’s group of 11 runners has four horses that can put that major stamp on their future stallion status.  Seven others (including one gelding) will try to prevent that from happening while notching a major win. Let’s break down this field, based on what it would mean to their stallion status.

The last thing missing from their resume:

Aikenite has come back in 2011 with a vengeance as he won two graded events at seven furlongs. He is the co-high weight at 120 lbs, but he looks vulnerable as this is his 3rd race in 6 weeks, including a ship from Kentucky after his last race. He is the 3rd choice on the morning line at 9/2, but he will probably go off lower than that. Haynesfield has several graded stakes wins (including a G1 in the JCGC), but this win would be the coup de grace for this New York bred.  He loves Belmont, with a 7-5-1-0 record. However, his only off the board finish was his last race in his 2011 debut.  He’ll carry 119 lbs. for the race, and he looks to bounce back. He is the morning line favorite at 7/2, but he will probably go off at around 3-1. Kensei hasn’t returned to his three year old form, when he won both the Grade 2 Dwyer and Jim Dandy Stakes.  He has struggled at this top tier of racing, including getting obliterated in this race last year by 12 ¾ lengths. The one turn mile distance is a good one, but he looks to be up against it this time.

Needs this win to be more than a regional sire:

Soaring Empire won the G3 Hal’s Hope to start his 2011 season, and has been working strong since his last race in March. However, he struggled in his only other Grade 1 forays, and was beat twice by fellow entrant Tackleberry after beating him in the Hal’s Hope. His odds always feel to be depressed versus his actual chances, so he may once again be an underlay. Caixa Electronica won first off the claim for Todd Pletcher last out in the Grade 3 Westchester. He has had only one solid work since, but can he keep it going? Tizway won the Grade 2 Kelso last year, then went off as the second choice in the BC Dirt Mile last year, where he finished 5th.  He finished 3rd last year in this race, and he cuts back off a third in the Charles Town Classic. He loves Belmont almost as much as Haynesfield, with a 5-2-1-2 lifetime record here.  He’s worked well since the race, is in the lightest of the main contenders (116 lbs.) and his outside post should let him get a good stalking position.

Career-Making win:

Stormy’s Majesty takes a big step up from his NY-bred stakes win last out, and is probably in too deep. Rodman steps up off a $60k stakes win last out, and he does run well fresh, but he’s never been this high up the ladder. He’s never been out of the exacta at the distance, and he could be the bomb in the exotics. Yawanna Twist has been a professional check-earner in his career, with his only off-the-board finish being his 4th in the Preakness. However, he has never won a stake of any kind in his career. Maybe he sort of grinds his way to an on the board finish? Ibboyee has won NY-bred stakes and placed in open states, but maybe this is beyond his optimum distance.

That leaves Tackleberry, who is the only gelding in the field. He is the major speed in the race, and was strong over the winter. He throws on lasix after bleeding last out while finishing fourth in the Charles Town Classic.

So there’s the field for the Met Mile. Can someone assure themselves a high stud fee in Kentucky? Or get that win to make sure they end up in Kentucky at all? No matter what, it figures to be a good race.

Our top pick is Tizway. Click here to find out why. Also, consider betting with Twin Spires this Memorial Day weekend. They offer an excellent $100 sign up bonus. Wagering online is the way to go and the preferred method of this site.

 

Met Mile Handicap preview and pick

Ryan Patterson takes a look at the Metropolitan Mile. His top pick is Tizway. Watch the video to find out more!

The Curious Case of Quality Road


The curious case of Quality Road continues Monday at Belmont Park in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile. This race won’t be nearly as easy for him as the Donn Handicap. Grade 1 winner Warrior’s Reward promises to bring PLENTY of competition as does Illinois Derby winner Musket Man. If all three run their best race then Quality Road will blow them off the track, but will that happen? There is no telling.

There isn’t a horse in training who possesses the wealth of talent that Quality Road has. He is brilliant going 6.5 furlongs or 9 furlongs. He has his quirks though. This was displayed in his well known gate incident prior to the start of the Breeders Cup Classic. As you may recall, he was spooked by the crowd and did not want to load into the gate. He was subsequently scratched from the race.

The MET Mile is a valuable gem of a win for a prospective sire and I have to think that is why the connections are targeting the race. They have Quality Road fresh and ready to fire his best shot. His work of :59 and change means that he is fit and ready to go. Quality Road would be an extremely attractive stallion prospect (even more so than he already is) with wins in the Florida Derby, Donn Handicap, and MET Mile.

After giving the Metropolitan Mile a spin, Quality Road could target a number of races. Those that come to mind are the Suburban, Whitney, Woodward, Jockey Club Gold Cup, and ultimately a second attempt at starting in the Breeders Cup Classic.

Quality Road is without doubt the best older male in what appears to be a rejuvenated division. His best competition at the top of the pile is Summer Bird who bested him twice last year, and the phenomenal west coaster Rail Trip.

Win or lose it will be fun to watch Quality Road race on Memorial Day. I’ve followed his career extensively and although I will be betting against him I will still enjoy watching such a talented runner.