May 21, 2012

Posts Comments

You are here: Home / Archives for michael matz

The Daily Derby News Blitz – May 2, 2012

May 2, 2012 By 1 Comment

The field has officially been set for the 138th Kentucky Derby!  At Churchill Downs today, the post positions for the 20 Derby entrants (as well as one also-eligible runner) were drawn in front of their connections, who cringed or applauded at the various outcomes.  Post positions can be a huge factor in the success of horses in the Run For The Roses.  The full field, with morning-line odds, jockeys, and trainers follows:
1. Daddy Long Legs, 30-1, Colm O’Donoghue, Aiden O’Brien
2. Optimizer, 50-1, Jon Court, D. Wayne Lukas
3. Take Charge Indy, 15-1, Calvin Borel, Patrick Byrne
4. Union Rags, 9-2, Julien Leparoux, Michael Matz
5. Dullahan, 8-1, Kent Desormeaux, Dale Romans
6. Bodemeister, 4-1, Mike Smith, Bob Baffert
7. Rousing Sermon, 50-1, Jose Lezcano, Jerry Hollendorfer
8. Creative Cause, 12-1, Joel Rosario, Mike Harrington
9. Trinniberg, 50-1, Willie Martinez, Bisnath Parboo
10. Daddy Nose Best, 15-1, Garrett Gomez, Steve Asmussen
11. Alpha, 15-1, Rajiv Maragh, Kiaran McLaughlin
12. Prospective, 30-1, Luis Contreras, Mark Casse
13. Went The Day Well, 20-1, John Velasquez, Graham Motion
14. Hansen, 10-1, Ramon Dominguez, Mike Maker
15. Gemologist, 6-1, Javier Castellano, Todd Pletcher
16. El Padrino, 20-1, Rafael Bejarano, Todd Pletcher
17. Done Talking, 50-1, Sheldon Russell, Hamilton Smith
18. Sabercat, 30-1, Corey Nakatani, Steve Asmussen
19. I’ll Have Another, 12-1, Mario Guiterrez, Doug O’Neil
20. Liaison, 50-1, Martin Garcia, Bob Baffert
AE 21. My Adonis, Elvis Trujillo, Kelly Breen

So who drew the best and who drew the worst?  Typically, horses don’t want the 1 post or the 20 post, and this year long shots drew both of these holes.  The horse that perhaps drew the worst post personally is Alpha in post 11.  The son of Bernardini has been known to have gate issues in the past, and in the Derby, the first two horses to load are the #1 and the #11.  This means Alpha will have to stand in the gate for quite a while May 5 in front of the huge Churchill crowd as the rest of the field loads.  Despite all his schooling in the gate, the tension could shake him up a bit.

Arkansas Derby (G1) winner Bodemeister was installed as the 4-1 morning-line favorite.  He and jockey Mike Smith will have an interesting task ahead of them within seconds of breaking from the gate on Saturday.  Bodemeister is a front-runner, meaning he likes to be on or near the lead in races.  The other two speediest horses in the race, Trinniberg (post 9) and Hansen (post 14) are both to his outside, meaning Bodemeister may be expected to set the tempo from post 6.  Trainer Bob Baffert wasn’t particularly pleased with the spots his two runners drew, but knew he had to accept them.  Liaison is way out in post 20, while Bodemeister’s post 6 is somewhat disadvantageous when you realize the other frontrunners are drawn to his outside.  However, Baffert has won three Kentucky Derbies, and knows you need luck in the running of the race rather than the post position draw.  He even joked about the dreaded one hole and his recent heart attack, saying he’d prefer to get three stents in his heart than break from post 1 again (like he did in 2010 with the rather unlucky Lookin At Lucky, who had a horrible trip from the inside spot that year.)

Union Rags, the 2nd choice at 9-2, will try to put his Florida Derby (G1) loss last time out behind him as he breaks from post 4 with Julien Leparoux.  Although the big horse would have probably been better suited to a spot further out, post 4 should be just fine, particularly if he can settle in behind Bodemeister and the other speed horses.  Trainer Michael Matz was relatively upbeat and positive about his talented colt drawing the #4 spot, but did hint that he wished he had been a little farther away from the rail.

The connections of Hansen let out a yelp of excitement when Daddy Long Legs drew post 1.  This was because the final two available posts for the Derby were posts 14 and post 1.  Post 1 tends to be the most dreaded starting gate of all, so Hansen’s entourage didn’t want their Champion 2-Year-Old Male to have to break from the rail.  Post 14 is a great spot for the nearly white colt to start.  It is right where the gap is between the main gate and the auxiliary gate used for the Derby, meaning Hansen will have a little more room to maneuver around than the average Derby starter.  Plus, he drew outside the other two speed horses (Bodemeister and Trinniberg) so jockey Ramon Dominguez can place the fleet-footed colt wherever he wishes in the run into the first turn.

At 12-1, Creative Cause looks intriguing breaking from post 8, which has produced several Derby winners recently including Barbaro in 2006 and Mine That Bird in 2009.  The Santa Anita Derby (G1) runner-up is a little under the radar with all the other talented contenders in the field this year, but don’t forget that he finished 3rd to Hansen and Union Rags at Churchill Downs last fall in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile (G1).  The three will renew this rivalry Saturday with, unbelievably, six other runners from last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile!  Besides the top three finishers, the horses that finished 4th (Dullahan), 5th (Take Charge Indy), 8th (Optimizer), 11th (Alpha), 12th (Daddy Long Legs), and 13th (Prospective) will all return to Churchill Downs to compete in the biggest race for 3-year-olds.  It’s almost as if this year’s Kentucky Derby is a rematch of last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, which is the top race for 2-year-old males.  It is amazing that so many of last year’s Breeders’ Cup runners have progressed into the rich and gifted Derby field of 2012.

Wood Memorial (G1) winner Gemologist drew a nice post in #15.  He will be on the other side of the gap between the main and auxiliary gates, meaning he and Hansen will both have extra space right after the break.  The only undefeated horse in the field this year, Gemologist will attempt to be the 2nd Kentucky Derby winner for trainer Todd Pletcher, who won the race in 2010 with Super Saver.  Pletcher had commented earlier in the day that he preferred an outside post for Gemologist but an inside one for El Padrino.  He got his wish with Gemologist in post 15, but El Padrino coming from post 16 isn’t quite what he had in mind.

Take Charge Indy, who upset the Grade 1 Florida Derby in his most recent start, will break one post inside of Union Rags.  When the two met last time, Union Rags left a discouraged 3rd while Take Charge Indy posed in the winner’s circle at Gulfstream.  Post 3 isn’t particularly a great spot to start from, but keep in mind jockey Calvin Borel will be aboard the son of A.P. Indy in the Run For The Roses.  Nicknamed Calvin “Bo-Rail” due to his love of running horses up the inside of the track, it was clear Take Charge Indy would make his way to the rail at some point during the race.  He is already fairly close to Calvin’s favorite spot, and “Bo-Rail” has been the winning rider in three Kentucky Derbies recently (in 2007 with Street Sense, 2009 with Mine That Bird, and 2010 with Super Saver.)

Speaking of Mine That Bird, who wore the roses over his shoulders after the 2009 edition of the Kentucky Derby, his half-brother Dullahan is looking to make winning the Derby a family tradition.  Jockey Kent Desormeaux, who won the Derby aboard Big Brown in 2008 as well as twice before, will hope to pilot his way back into the winner’s circle as they break from post 5.

I’ll Have Another, winner of the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby in his most recent start, was assigned post 19.  His trainer, Doug O’Neil commented that it wasn’t the best spot but it was certainly better than the rail.  He will attempt to settle and save ground before the first turn.

Daddy Nose Best, who has been flying somewhat under the radar despite training very impressively at Churchill recently, drew post 10.  The Steve Asmussen trainee, who was set at 15-1 on the morning-line, will try not to get shuffled too far back in the big field.  The other runner from the Asmussen barn, Sabercat, will break from post 18.

The connections of Went The Day Well are hoping post 13 will prove to be a lucky number for them.  The owner, trainer, jockey combination of Team Valor International, Graham Motion, and John Velazquez won the Kentucky Derby last year with Animal Kingdom.  The last time the same connections won the Derby two years in a row was way back in 1972 and 1973 with Riva Ridge and Secretariat.

Now that the post positions have been drawn, who do you like?  Leave us a comment and let us know!

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Kentucky Derby Contender: Union Rags

April 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment

by Robert Boswell

Union Rags

Bay colt foaled March 3, 2009

Dixie Union – Tempo by Gone West

 

Owner: Chadds Ford Stable

Trainer: Michael Matz

Jockey: Julien Leparoux

 

On the track: Union Rags won his career debut in July going 5 furlongs at Delaware Park against Maiden Special Weight competition. He then jumped straight into the deep end in the Saratoga Special (GII) and the Champagne (GI), taking both and beating fellow Kentucky Derby contender, Alpha, in the latter. It was at this point that the chatter began to build, just as it does every time there is a bright young standout. ‘Rags was lauded as the early Derby favorite by all and as much as racing fans didn’t want to get too far ahead of themselves, the whispers and thoughts of a potential Triple Crown winner were unavoidable. The Breeder’s Cup Juvenile pitted the top 2-year-old against the largest and most talented he had seen, to date, and it proved to live up to the billing. He was sent off the 1/10 favorite and came up just a head short in his rally behind Hansen not only in the Breeder’s Cup, but also in the Eclipse Award voting for Champion 2-Year-Old Male. Michael Matz, being a patient trainer, waited until the Fountain of Youth (GII) to give Union Rags his 3-year-old start. With the defection of Algorithms due to injury, he won impressively and seemed to rekindle the romance in the racing world again. The obvious next step was the Florida Derby (GI), where he again was the heavy favorite.  After being set under a long drive by Julien Leparoux, the colt started his best running only in the final 16th, which proved to be too late to catch Take Charge Indy and Reveron.

Storylines: Matz won the 2006 Kentucky Derby with Barbaro, who was also a stand out his entire career, so it’s easy to draw some comparisons between the two.  It would be a great story for Matz and the racing world to have things go their way after such a tragedy. Also, before the Fountain of Youth, jockey Javier Castellano made the controversial decision to get off Union Rags and ride promising, young Algorithms, only for the son of Bernardini to be sidelined with injury. Castellano will be aboard Gemologist for the Derby.

Pros: Experience over the track; freshness; “Spirit of Barbaro”;

Cons: Disappointed last out; no two-turn Grade I win

Interested in learning about ALL the Kentucky Derby contenders? Check out our Kentucky Derby Guide!

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , ,

Union Rags set to tackle all comers in Florida Derby

March 29, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Union Rags

Union Rags

It’s hard to think much about Union Rags without being reminded of 2006 Florida and Kentucky Derby winner Barbaro. He trained by Michael Matz, is a headline three-year-old, lightly raced, and even moves in a similar way, with his big, extended stride.  Saturday, he will try to further the similarities when he takes on eight rivals in a talent-rich renewal of the $1,000,000 Florida Derby (Gr. I).

Widely regarded as the top colt in the division, Union Rags has won four of five career races, including his season debut in the Fountain of Youth (Gr. II).  The son of Dixie Union will attempt nine furlongs for the first time in his final prep before the Kentucky Derby (Gr. I). At post time ‘Rags will no doubt be the favorite, likely at a short price, and you can fully expect him to run to his odds.  He will break from post 6 and look to sit mid-pack under Julien Leparoux.

The clear cut second choice, and the main danger to Union Rags’ success, is Todd Pletcher’s El Padrino. Last out he battled through the long Fair Grounds stretch to prevail by a head in the Risen Star (Gr. II) over Mark Valeski, who will be favored in Sunday’s Louisiana Derby (Gr. II).  Adding to the competition, as a result of the unfortunate defection of Algorithms from the Derby trail, Javier Castellano will be aboard El Padrino, after jumping off Union Rags. Though this is his first try in Grade I company, he has shown plenty in his first five starts to suggest he’s capable of making the jump. From post 8, he would like to secure a stalking position just behind the leaders and get a head start on the favorite.

Another promising three-year-old that figures to make his presence felt is Take Charge Indy.  The A.P. Indy colt has failed to find the winner’s circle in the four starts since breaking his maiden back in July, but has faced some serious competition and performed admirably. He was fourth behind Dullahan in the Breeders Futurity (Gr. I), fifth in the Breeders Cup Juvenile (Gr. I), and most recently second to fellow starter El Padrino over this track. Patrick Byrne entered him in the Tampa Bay Derby (Gr. III) where he would have been a short price, but strangely called an audible a couple days before the race. The move raised some eyebrows, but Take Charge Indy will get plenty of play at the windows and should be pressing the pace. Calvin Borel gets the call from post 3.

In addition to Union Rags, three other horses are coming out of the Fountain of Youth. Fort Loudon, the fifth place finisher will go from post 1 with Luis Jurado up, News Pending, a distant second, gets post 2 under Rajiv Maragh, and Neck N Neck, who finished fourth, will have Edgar Prado in the irons from post 4. The maiden Z Camelot (5; Joe Bravo), Bartolome (7; Jesus Castanon), and Reveron (9; Elvis Trujillo) round out the field.

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

Hail to the King: Union Rags dominate in Fountain of Youth

February 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment

 

Union Rags takes last year's Saratoga Special.

Union Rags takes last year's Saratoga Special.

The role of Kentucky Derby favorite had been contested until today, but in just 1:42.68 Union Rags ($4.40) showed that he is a one to beat in a tour de force four length victory over six opponents in the Grade 2 Fountain of Youth Stakes from Gulfstream Park.

Union Rags could not have been any more impressive in his 2012 debut. Julien Leparoux was a statue in the stirrups and merely threw a few a crosses at the colt before he blasted away from second place finisher News Pending. The son of Dixie Union has matured beautifully for trainer Michael Matz.

“You never know after a four-month rest – Do you have the horse fit enough? Did you do this? Did you do that? You always go through 51 questions,” Matz said. “I guess we did it right this time.”

As hard as it is to believe, Union Rags was the second choice in this race at 6-5. The role of favorite went to Florida bred Discreet Dancer. He made the lead before tiring near the top of the stretch.

“There were no real excuses,” Pletcher said. “We got the trip we wanted and he just finished evenly.”

At this moment in time, Union Rags is far and away the best three-year-old in the country. His foes have a lot of catching up to do and very little time in which to do it. It’s catch him if you can; and you probably cant.

Look for Union Rags next out in the Florida Derby. Oh, and to his competition; bring your best running shoes.

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , ,

Kentucky Derby heavyweight contenders set for Fountain of Youth

February 24, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Algorithms

Algorithms

The Grade 2 $400k Fountain of Youth Stakes (Gulfstream Park|Race 11|Sunday) has been quite productive in recent years. Among its winners are great horses like Eskendereya, Quality Road, Scat Daddy, and Kentucky Derby winner Thunder Gulch. 2012 has produced a group with not one, but three horses capable of joining the ranks of the heralded horses above. Let’s break down the mile and sixteenth race!

Discreet Dancer (Discreet Dancer x West Side Dancer by Gone West), from the barn of Todd Pletcher, won his first two race by a combined 15 and a quarter lengths and was ridden out in both efforts. He’s got plenty of early sizzle and should be on or near the lead in this spot. John Velazquez gets the mount from JJ Castellano who gave up this ride, along with Union Rags, to stay on Algorithms.

This type of horse is so tough to get a read on. He’s clearly very talented, but has faced next to nothing thus far in his young career. Discreet Dancer could win this thing by a few lengths or get burned up on the front and finish fourth. This will be his first time going two turns and that isn’t easy for any horse to do; especially against graded stakes winners. I’m going to lean against him while acknowledging that he stands plenty of chance to make me look like an idiot.

Algorithms (Bernardini x Avaknowsthecode by Cryptoclearance), another Todd Pletcher trainee, is a push button horse with a devastating turn of foot. That’s part of the reason why jockey JJ Castellano chose him over Union Rags. JJ is winning everything in sight right now and will give this one a great ride.

Like Discreet Dancer, this is his first time going two turns. That is countered by the fact that Algorithms is due for a peak effort racing third off the layoff. It’s tough to say how good he is, but I really love his running style and late kick. Bettors that back this colt are getting perhaps the best jockey going right now and a tremendously fast untested runner.

468x60 - Pick Your Perk

I usually don’t like layoff horses in a race like this, but Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West) is a special case. The hulking colt stands 17 hands tall and has already proved he can run huge in a situation like this one. Trainer Michael Matz says the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes winner is as ready as he could possible be and the works are strong.

The setup of the race could work in favor of the versatile Union Rags. He can be near the pace or come from the back. It’s going to be interesting to see what new jockey Julien Leparoux decides upon. It could make the difference in winning and losing.

It’s tough to separate Discreet Dancer, Algorithms, and Union Rags. This could all come down to the decisions made by the jockeys. I’m going to go with Union Rags as my pick. He figures to sit the best trip behind the speed. Not only that, but he is the proven commodity. You wont get a huge price, but if you’re brave enough to single him on the Pick 4 or 5 it would make a huge difference.

Much is unknown heading into the Fountain of Youth, but a new Kentucky Derby favorite could emerge when the dust settles. Win or lose, this is the type of event that horse racing fans anticipate for days in advance. I cant wait to watch!

Plan to bet the Fountain of Youth Stakes? Do so at TVG  where new players get a $100 sign up bonus! Also, check out our Twitter page for great horse racing picks and thoughts.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping, Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , , , ,

Bearish on Union Rags

January 14, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Union Rags

Union Rags

Most trainers are blessed to win the Kentucky Derby once in their life. Just getting a horse to start in the race is like trying to catch lightning in a bottle. Michael Matz won the race in 2006 with the infinitely talented tragic hero Barbaro. Now, in 2012, he’s got a horse that’s likely to take him back to the promise land. Can the colt named Union Rags become his second victor in the Run for the Roses? Right now, he is favored to do so.

The next start for the Chadds Ford Stables owned colt will come on February 26 in the Grade II Fountain of Youth Stakes at Gulfstream Park. That race has been quite salty over the past few years, with winners like Eskendereya, Quality Road, Scat Daddy and First Samurai. It’s likely to be just as hard in 2012 with his main rival, Hansen, also targeting that race.

After that, he will look to the Grade I Florida Derby, a race won by Barbaro in 2006. The race has been a great springboard for Kentucky Derby contenders like Empire Maker (second), Monarchos, Big Brown and Ice Box (second). This could be the first occasion where we see him exhibit true distance limitations.  While I expect him to handle the nine furlongs distance of the Florida Derby, I’m not so sure the extra panel in the Kentucky Derby is within his range.

Pedigree is the primary reason he might struggle. Union Rags finished a hard charging second in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile, but was drifting quite a bit down the lane. His sire, Dixie Union, won the Haskell Invitational. Despite that, he hasn’t really produced classic type runners. Broodmare sire Gone West produced runners that were more sprinter/miler oriented like Speightstown and Grand Slam.

It’s not all bad. His second dam, Terpsichorist, was an excellent turf router and her sire, Nijinsky, has been an excellent route influence. Distance will matter less as he develops into a more mature and defined colt, but for now, it’s something to consider.

While the current trend favors only two preps for the first Saturday in May, it might be beneficial for this guy to race three times. It would give him the chance to become more of a professional before he goes back to Churchill Downs, where anything can happen.

For all the not so good things I’ve pointed out, there is plenty to like about Union Rags. First and foremost, he is incredibly fast. We saw that in in the Saratoga Special, Champagne Stakes and in the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile. He’s had a bit of racing trouble and bad luck in his young career and handled it very well. That’s always a good sign.

To put this in wall street terms, I’m a bear on Union Rags. That’s subject to change, obviously, but for now I’m not sure he’s got enough bottom to get the classic distance.

Filed Under: Triple Crown Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

2011 Breeders Cup Juvenile sneak peek

October 25, 2011 By 2 Comments

by David Crone

Before 2011 most racing fans would not have thrown Michael Matz on the list of best Juvenile trainers. Matz is a guy with a reputation for taking his time developing horses, and has had the majority of his success training horses over longer distances, and in many cases, on the turf. Despite these preconceived notions, the all-around equestrian (Matz is also a member of the Show Jumping Hall of Fame) has the best juvenile in America in his barn heading to next weekends’ Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Union Rags has yet to take a misstep in his two-year-old campaign. He broke his maiden at first asking at Delaware Park before heading to New York to capture the Grade II Saratoga Special. In his most recent start, Union Rags galloped to an easy victory, despite traffic trouble, in New York’s biggest Juvenile prep, the Grade I Champagne Stakes.

Based on his last two efforts, there is little doubt that Union Rags will be favored in the Juvenile when they load the gate at Churchill Downs. Being the favorite in the Juvenile has been a great indicator of success recently, in the last five years the favorite has finished no worse than second.

Despite that, this race is far from a walkover for Union Rags.

Creative Cause is a regally bred son of Giant’s Causeway that sports three wins from four starts, and, unlike Union Rags, already has a win going the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile distance of 1 1/16 miles around two turns. In his last start, the colt took the Grade I Norfolk Stakes over highly regarded Bob Baffert juvenile Drill. Plus, Creative Cause proved that day that he could handle conventional dirt. He will be a hot second choice and sure to take a lot of action.

The aforementioned Drill is still very much in the Juvenile picture, despite his loss in the Norfolk. Before that race Drill had proven himself to be a top class juvenile with his win in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity, but, there are definitely some questions he has to answer.

468x60 - Breeders Cup

Was it just not his day at Santa Anita for the Norfolk Stakes? Or was it the extra distance or the conventional dirt surface that caused him to regress off of his Del Mar Futurity effort? Few trainers rival Bob Baffert’s ability to have a juvenile prepared for Breeders’ Cup weekend, but is Drill good enough to beat the top two?

The dark horse that has caught the attention of many is undoubtedly Hansen. The son of Tapit is undefeated in his two career starts, both coming over a synthetic surface at Turfway Park. While the competition he has faced is questionable, the way he has dispatched them has been impressive. In both his maiden victory and the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Hansen has absolutely crushed his opposition, winning his two starts by a combined 25 ½ lengths. He is already a winner around two turns as well. He is the proverbial, “could be anything” type of horse. If he takes to dirt, and his first two starts were legitimate he could have the best chance at upsetting the top two contenders.

Dullahan broke his maiden while winning the Grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his most recent start. He is another serious threat on Breeders’ Cup Saturday if his connections choose to run him in the Juvenile (they are seriously considering the Juvenile Turf). The son of Even The Score had two lackluster starts on dirt before moving to the turf for his third and fourth starts, and finally won when entered on the synthetic at Keeneland. His ability makes him a factor if he goes into the Juvenile, but his dirt record says to tread with caution. However, his older brother, Mine That Bird, seemed to love the Churchill Downs dirt surface where he skipped to the largest margin of victory in Kentucky Derby history.

Another horse being considered for the Juvenile is the Grade III Hollywood Juvenile winner, Majestic City, who led to mid stretch in the Breeders’ Futurity only to be run down by Dullahan in the final stages of the race. However, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is likely their top option, and the Juvenile distance of 1 1/16 miles may prove to be too much for the son of City Zip.

Alpha, runner up to likely favorite Union Rags in the Champagne is also being pointed to the race, a son of the exciting young stallion, Bernardini, and out of a family of distance specialists, he certainly rates a look as a horse that should be improving.

Other possible starters include the highly regarded Bob Baffert juvenile, Secret Circle, who may opt for the Juvenile Sprint instead, D Wayne Lukas’ Optimizer, who could be pointed to the Juvenile Turf instead, and third place finisher in the Champagne, Right to Vote.

**Interested in our thoughts on this and all other Breeders Cup races? Click the link to learn about our Breeders Cup Picks!**

Filed Under: Breeders Cup Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , ,

2012 Kentucky Derby contenders (Early Top 5)

September 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment

**Be sure to check out our up to date Kentucky Derby Contenders list**

It’s way too early to hope to accurately pick the winner of the 2012 Kentucky Derby, but I’ve created a short list of candidates. Feel free to comment and share your thoughts.

#1 Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway x Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer): We didn’t see his best in the Del Mar Futurity last out as he was compromised by the drifting Majestic City. His two starts before that couldn’t have been any more impressive as he easily cruised past the competition to win a maiden race and the Grade 2 Best Pal. Mike Harrington has got a beast on his hands.

#2 Take Charge Indy (AP Indy x Take Charge Lady) Breeding really doesn’t get much better than this. I love the way he smashed a maiden group first out at Arlington. He verified that form with a second place finish in the Arlington Futurity next out. He should run all day and is in the excellent hands of Patrick Byrne.

#3 Drill (Lawyer Ron x Cat Dancer by Storm Cat) Bob Baffert is excited about him and that means we should be too. He finished up like a monster in the Del Mar Futurity to get the win last out. It seems like blinkers have really done the trick. Keep an eye on him as he is in the best possible hands and has the pedigree to run all day.

#4 Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West) I had him as my top pick when he won the Saratoga Special, but even I didn’t see that big run coming. He didn’t just win, he crushed the competition despite being green in the stretch. Michael Matz will probably bring him along slowly from this point forward.

#5 Smart Ellis (Smarty Jones x Corrazona by El Gran Senor) You wont find this one on many lists, but he’s got potential. The Richard Mandella trainee won going a flat mile over the Del Mar grass to break his maiden in the second start of his career. He’s got good early speed and I’m hoping he can carry it.

Honorable Mentions: Finale, State of Play and Optimizer

Chances are that none of these will even make the starting gate. I’ll consider it quite the accomplishment if any of them can hit the board, let alone win. Despite that it is fun to speculate. The Kentucky Derby is the most important race in the world and we never stop thinking about it.

**Be sure to check out our up to date Kentucky Derby Contenders list**

Filed Under: Horse Racing Information Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , ,

2011 Saratoga Special betting preview

August 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Saratoga Special Stakes is one of the premier races for two-year-old’s every year at the Spa. Last year’s running was taken by Kantharos who won emphatically eased up at the wire. Sadly, his career ended prematurely due to an injury.

It would take all day to list notable winners of this race, but some of my favorites to win the Saratoga Special are Kodiak Kowboy, Gulch, Conquistador Cielo, Bold Forbes and Native Dancer. Click here to learn more about the history of this race which has been contested since 1901.

Todd Pletcher’s colt Stat (Unbridled’s Song x Di’s Time by Gilded Time) is the 7/5 morning line favorite. He won first out by 1 ¾ lengths over Trade and Street Fight. John Velazquez will ride  for owners Bortolazzo Stable Llc. His debut win looked strong, but I’m not willing to accept such a short price.

My top selection to win the Saratoga Special is Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West). The Chadds Ford Stable owned colt won first out at Delaware closing from seventh. He easily ran past the pacesetter to register a 1 ¾ lengths score. Trainer Michael Matz doesn’t come to Saratoga to play around so we know he thinks this guy is the real deal. JJ Castellano picks up the mount at 5-1.

Banner Bill (Rockport Harbor x Temporada by Summer Squall) and Indian Evening (Indian Charlie x Unenchantedevening by Unbridled’s Song) ship in from Woodbine for this prestigious race. The latter was an easy first out winner for Josie Carroll and Vinery Stables. Banner Bill is a perfect three for three with a hard fought length win in the Colin Stakes last out. Rajiv Maragh will ride Indian Evening and Alex Solis will be the pilot on Banner Bill.

Italo (With Distinction x Dance Forthe Green by Gone West) won his debut at Longchamp for Wes Ward. After that he ran last in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Cant count him out at 10-1, but I also cannot see enough to back him. Jeffrey Sanchez is listed to ride.

Trinniberg (Teuflesberg x Bella Dorado by Seeking The Gold) will get plenty of action after an easy first out win at Calder in which he crossed the wire 5 ¾ lengths clear of his closest foe. Trainer Bisnath Parboo isn’t well known, but a capable conditioner nonetheless. Cornelio Velasquez gets the call on this 3-1 shot.

To get all of our thoughts on the action at Saratoga check out our Saratoga Picks page. Also, considering wagering at Twin Spires where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Chelokee revs up for 2008 campaign

January 16, 2008 By Leave a Comment

You had better keep an eye out for Michael Matz’s 4 year old colt Chelokee. This horse was my sleeper for the Kentucky Derby last year but sadly didn’t qualify due to low earnings. He has had some bad racing luck and given a clean trip I think he can run with the best of them. Chelokee was a hard charging third in the Florida Derby last year after a troubled trip and getting clear running room only in the late stages of the race. He showed a ton of heart in defeating Zanjero in the Northern Dancer Breeders Cup Stakes. Zanjero nudged ahead of Chelokee, who wasn’t going to have any of that. Chelokee in a gritty stretch battle repelled the bid and even began widening his lead toward the end. With Ramon Dominguez who I personally believe is the best jockey around in the irons Chelokee is going to have a serious 4 year old campaign. I fully expect him to give Daaher and Curlin (both horses whom I picked out before they were on top) a run for their money. Keep an eye open for this one.

Chelokee was sidelined last year due to a minor ankle injury. “We stopped on him last summer because he was sore in all four fetlocks,” said trainer Michael Matz. “He had no chips or anything, but he lit up in all four ankles when given a scintigraphy exam.” He has also had an undescended testicle removed since his last start. He had a published work out at Palm Meadows on Friday of 3 furlongs in 35.60. “He’s matured an awful lot since he left us last summer,” said Matz. “He worked very easily the other day and we’ll stretch him out to a half-mile for the next one. If all goes well, perhaps he’ll being able to run sometime near the end of the meet.”

Filed Under: Horse Racing Information Tagged With: ,