by David Crone

Before 2011 most racing fans would not have thrown Michael Matz on the list of best Juvenile trainers. Matz is a guy with a reputation for taking his time developing horses, and has had the majority of his success training horses over longer distances, and in many cases, on the turf. Despite these preconceived notions, the all-around equestrian (Matz is also a member of the Show Jumping Hall of Fame) has the best juvenile in America in his barn heading to next weekends’ Breeders’ Cup Juvenile.

Union Rags has yet to take a misstep in his two-year-old campaign. He broke his maiden at first asking at Delaware Park before heading to New York to capture the Grade II Saratoga Special. In his most recent start, Union Rags galloped to an easy victory, despite traffic trouble, in New York’s biggest Juvenile prep, the Grade I Champagne Stakes.

Based on his last two efforts, there is little doubt that Union Rags will be favored in the Juvenile when they load the gate at Churchill Downs. Being the favorite in the Juvenile has been a great indicator of success recently, in the last five years the favorite has finished no worse than second.

Despite that, this race is far from a walkover for Union Rags.

Creative Cause is a regally bred son of Giant’s Causeway that sports three wins from four starts, and, unlike Union Rags, already has a win going the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile distance of 1 1/16 miles around two turns. In his last start, the colt took the Grade I Norfolk Stakes over highly regarded Bob Baffert juvenile Drill. Plus, Creative Cause proved that day that he could handle conventional dirt. He will be a hot second choice and sure to take a lot of action.

The aforementioned Drill is still very much in the Juvenile picture, despite his loss in the Norfolk. Before that race Drill had proven himself to be a top class juvenile with his win in the Grade I Del Mar Futurity, but, there are definitely some questions he has to answer.

Was it just not his day at Santa Anita for the Norfolk Stakes? Or was it the extra distance or the conventional dirt surface that caused him to regress off of his Del Mar Futurity effort? Few trainers rival Bob Baffert’s ability to have a juvenile prepared for Breeders’ Cup weekend, but is Drill good enough to beat the top two?

The dark horse that has caught the attention of many is undoubtedly Hansen. The son of Tapit is undefeated in his two career starts, both coming over a synthetic surface at Turfway Park. While the competition he has faced is questionable, the way he has dispatched them has been impressive. In both his maiden victory and the Kentucky Cup Juvenile Hansen has absolutely crushed his opposition, winning his two starts by a combined 25 ½ lengths. He is already a winner around two turns as well. He is the proverbial, “could be anything” type of horse. If he takes to dirt, and his first two starts were legitimate he could have the best chance at upsetting the top two contenders.

Dullahan broke his maiden while winning the Grade I Dixiana Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland in his most recent start. He is another serious threat on Breeders’ Cup Saturday if his connections choose to run him in the Juvenile (they are seriously considering the Juvenile Turf). The son of Even The Score had two lackluster starts on dirt before moving to the turf for his third and fourth starts, and finally won when entered on the synthetic at Keeneland. His ability makes him a factor if he goes into the Juvenile, but his dirt record says to tread with caution. However, his older brother, Mine That Bird, seemed to love the Churchill Downs dirt surface where he skipped to the largest margin of victory in Kentucky Derby history.

Another horse being considered for the Juvenile is the Grade III Hollywood Juvenile winner, Majestic City, who led to mid stretch in the Breeders’ Futurity only to be run down by Dullahan in the final stages of the race. However, the Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Turf is likely their top option, and the Juvenile distance of 1 1/16 miles may prove to be too much for the son of City Zip.

Alpha, runner up to likely favorite Union Rags in the Champagne is also being pointed to the race, a son of the exciting young stallion, Bernardini, and out of a family of distance specialists, he certainly rates a look as a horse that should be improving.

Other possible starters include the highly regarded Bob Baffert juvenile, Secret Circle, who may opt for the Juvenile Sprint instead, D Wayne Lukas’ Optimizer, who could be pointed to the Juvenile Turf instead, and third place finisher in the Champagne, Right to Vote.

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