Mission Impazible

2012 Grade 3 Pimlico Special Preview

May 16, 2012 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Alternation

The $300k Grade 3 Pimlico Special is a Grade 1 race in disguise. The 9.5 furlongs race features two Grade 1 winners, three Grade 2 winners and two Grade 3 winners. Of the remaining three horses all are graded placed or overnight stakes winners.

Alternation (Distorted Humor x Alternate by Seattle Slew) figures to go favored after a brilliant win in the Grade 2 Oaklawn Handicap where he controlled the race from start to finish. The three-time graded stakes winner has enough early zip to go wire to wire, but has also scored from as far back as seventh. If the muscly colt brings his best game he could easily triumph here for trainer Donnie Von Hemel and jockey Luis Quinonez.

Todd Pletcher’s Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) will get plenty of support. The 2010 Louisiana Derby winner hasn’t won since taking the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap last year, but owns a near miss in the Grade 1 Donn Handicap this year as well as a second place finish to Fair Grounds phenom Nate’s Mineshaft last out in the 2012 edition of the New Orleans Handicap. Tough field are nothing new for Mission Impazible and he will offer value as the “forgotten” horse. JJ Castalleno retains the mount.

It took a few starts for Endorsement (Distorted Humor x Charmed Gift by AP Indy) to get rolling again, but the 2010 Grade 3 Sunland Derby champ has looked stellar in his last two starts. His last trip to the track was an easy two length victory over a salty group in the Grade 3 Texas Mile 21 days ago. Now, the well bred router will get a chance to stretch his legs against some of the best two turns company in the nation. Martin Garcia picks up the mount for Eoin Harty.

Hymn Book (Arch x Vespers by Known Fact) ran a career best race to win the Donn Handicap by a nose two starts back, but didn’t show the same speed last out in the Oaklawn Handicap where he flattened out to be fourth. The Shug McGaughey charge would likely benefit from a wet track as he owns four of his seven wins in the off going. John Velazquez will stay aboard on the six-year-old dark bay or brown gelding.

Graham Motion trainees win at a 27% clip when racing on 46-90 days rest. That matters because Grade 1 Wood Memorial champ Toby’s Corner (Bellamy Road x Brandon’s Ride by Mister Frisky) enters this race after a 48 day respite. He was shelved prior to the 2011 Kentucky Derby because of an injury and has raced twice since then with a close third place finish in the Grade 2 General George Handicap going seven panels and a distant third place effort in the New Orleans Handicap. Look for him to peak in this spot and run one of the best races of his career under Eddie Castro.

Zayat Stables has finished second in the Kentucky Derby three times. The second time was with Nehro (Mineshaft x The Administrator by Afleet) who will be making his fourth start since closing to be second to Animal Kingdom last year. Like Toby’s Corner, he was shelved last year because of an injury. He returned in 2012 to win by just over seven lengths against a pitiful optional claiming group at Fair Grounds. After that, he failed to fire while finishing sixth in the Oaklawn Handicap. Horse bettors should go ahead and draw a line through that race as it was only his second of the year and the race did not set up in his favor. His excellent staying power will serve him well here. Corey Nakatani will stay aboard for Steve Asmussen.

Many will pass on Yawanna Twist (Yonaguska x Twist And Pop by Oliver’s Twist) thinking he cant go the distance, but one of his best career efforts came at this track and distance when he was fourth beaten just two lengths by Lookin At Lucky in the Preakness Stakes. All three horses who finished ahead of him that day returned to win a Grade 1 race at some point in their career. He is in sharp form with a win in the General George Handicap two races back and a last out third place effort in the Oaklawn Handicap. We know he loves this track and he will be a huge price. That makes him a must use on all multiple race exotic tickets.

Cease, Cherokee Artist and Eighttofasttocatch round out the field.

This is a very tough race and I don’t have an opinion as far as a single horse to win. However, I recommend going deep on the Pick 4 and hoping something crazy happens. Bombers like Yawanna Twist and Toby’s Corner are legitimate win threats.

Don’t forget to play the race at Twinspires.com where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: alternation, cease, cherokee artist, eighttofasttocatch, endorsement, hymn book, mission impazible, nehro, pimlico special, toby's corner, yawanna twist

Donn Handicap deep and full of talent

February 9, 2012 By Ryan Patterson 1 Comment

Flat Out

The 2012 Grade 1 Donn Handicap (Saturday|Race 10|Gulfstream) has attracted a deeply contentious field of 11 contenders. Notable recent winners include Quality Road in 2010, Invasor in 2007 and Saint Liam in 2005. This year’s winner could become a top contender for the world’s richest race; the $10 million Dubai World Cup on March 31. There is a 50% chance of rain as of Saturday.

Where’s Sterling (Northern Afleet x Twinkler by Benny The Dip) will break from the rail after posting a very sharp gate breeze in 1:25 4/5 seconds for seven furlongs on January 25. The Nick Canani colt owns a strong record over the Gulfstream strip with two wins and two second place finishes from four starts. He hasn’t lost in two tries at the distance. Jose Lezcano gets the call to ride.

Todd Pletcher’s Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) has two decent races over this surface, but most of his best running has been done at Churchill Downs. I expect him to race too close to the pace under JJ Castellano. He will pay for that in the late stages of the Donn Handicap.

Last year’s Belmont Stakes winner, Ruler on Ice (Roman Ruler x Champagne Glow by Saratoga Six) hasn’t won in his last five trips to the track, but that could end here. The gelding has been freshened up and is working like he’s sitting on a big race. He fired three consecutive bullets at Palm Meadows prior to his last work, including five furlongs in :58 1/5 B. Anna Napravnik will get aboard for trainer Kelly Breen. This guys best race came over a sloppy track so the connections will likely be doing a race dance.

Dick Dutrow will send out two horses, the first of which is Redeemed (Include x Early Mass by Pleasant Tap). The versatile equine registered a powerful victory last out in the Grade 3 Discovery Stakes at Aqueduct. Before that he beat two top horses in the form of Alternation and Prayer For Relief while winning the Oklahoma Derby. Edgar Prado will ride the Jay Em Ess entry.

Cam Gambolati’s Soaring Empire (Empire Maker x Flying Passage by A.P. Indy) loves racing at Gulfstream. His best win came in last year’s Grade 3 Hal’s Hope Stakes. He was also second by a neck in last years Grade 2 Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship Stakes and Gulfstream Park Handicap. He was last seen getting tired in this year’s Hal’s Hope after making the lead at the top of the stretch. That was his first race since the end of July and it should have him good and ready to fire a big shot here. Julien Leparoux will pilot the closer.

Al Khali (Medaglia d’Oro x Maya by Capote) has raced primarily on the grass, but does own three wins on the dirt. Bill Mott has him cross entered in the Gulfstream Park Turf Handicap. He hasn’t won since Hector was a pup and will have to contend with a four month layoff.

Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider) is one of the best older horses around when he’s on his game. He proved that last year with wins in the Grade 2 Suburban Handicap and the Grade 1 Jockey Club Gold Cup. He failed as the favorite in the Grade 1 Breeders’ Cup Classic and Grade 1 Clark Handicap. I’m willing to forgive those efforts. He doesn’t like the track at Churchill Downs. I’m also going to throw out his last race on the turf where he finished dead last. He’s not a turf horse. The works since that race are strong and he moves back to a dirt route. That makes him deadly.

Trickmeister (Proud Citizen x Afternoon Trick by Afternoon Deelites) hasn’t lost or been challenged in five starts, but hasn’t faced a field even close to as good as this one yet. The Dutrow trainee will get to the front and take them as far as he can. I don’t expect that to be very far. Ramon Dominguez gets the call to ride as JJ Castellano chose to retain the mount on Mission Impazible.

Last year’s Preakness winner Shackleford (Forestry x Oatsee by Unbridled) almost went all the way to win last year’s Grade 1 Florida Derby, but was caught on the wire by Dialed In. I’ve got a feeling the layoff wont hurt him too much, but I’m just not sure he truly wants to go this far against horses of this quality. It wouldn’t shock or surprise to see him win, but I’m leaning against it. Jesus Castanon rides for Dale Romans.

Hymn Book (Arch x Vespers by Known Fact) charged down the lane to be second in the Grade 1 Cigar Mile last out. It was a very good effort as To Honor And Serve wasn’t going to lose that day. His best race is good enough to win this thing. John Velazquez gets back up for Shug Mcgaughey.

He hasn’t won in a very long time, but Sangaree (Awesome Again x Mari’s Sheba by Mari’s Book) looked well last out to be second in the Hal’s Hope behind dominant winner Jackson Bend. If that race is any indication, he could be ready to move forward again at a big price. Rajiv Maragh will pilot this horse for Kiaran Mclaughlin.

My top selection to win the 2012 Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park is Ruler on Ice. I think the time off has done him well and it appears he is kicking the barn down. The gelding will get plenty of pace to chase and an off track will work to his advantage should one turn up. Key contenders include Flat Out, Soaring Empire and Redeemed.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: al khali, donn handicap, flat out, hymn book, mission impazible, redeemed, ruler on ice, sangeree, shackleford, soaring empire, trickmeister, where's sterling

Wise Dan set to tackle Clark Handicap

November 22, 2011 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Wise Dan

Be sure to check out Twinspires.com to bet this race along with all of the other great races on Thanksgiving weekend.

The 2010 Clark Handicap from Churchill Downs resulted in a controversial disqualification of Charles Lopresti’s Successful Dan that gave Giant Oak his first Grade I victory. Successful Dan hasn’t competed since then, but his half brother, Wise Dan, will try to avenge him in the 2011 Clark Handicap on Friday.

Wise Dan looked lackluster in his first three starts of the year, but he broke through with a strong win going one mile on the turf in the Firecracker Handicap. After that he turned in a solid win over a strong field in the Presque Isle Mile and ran well in defeat in the Shadwell Mile. His last start, the Fayette, saw him blast past the competition to score first victory in a rout.

Now, the son of Wiseman’s Ferry will attempt to secure his first Grade I victory while toting 120 lbs.

Standing in his path is Jockey Club Gold Cup winner Flat Out. He was last seen finishing a disappointing fifth as the lukewarm favorite in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. “No excuse, he just got outrun. That’s it.”, said trainer Charles Dickey after that race.

Now, he will try to get a win over a track that has eluded him so far. He is winless in two tries after the aforementioned loss and a sixth place showing in the Stephen Foster Handicap in June. His burden will be 123 lbs.

Mission Impazible is an interesting option for bettors. He finished second beaten just a neck in the Stephen Foster over this track earlier this year. The Todd Pletcher trainee has run three subpar races since then, but returning to a preferable surface will help boost his chances. Also boosting his chances are the fact that he will get a 6 pound advantage on the favorite. His running style, near the pace, is yet another advantage.

Ruler On Ice will not go without support. The Belmont Stakes winner has put together two strong races in the Pennsylvania Derby and Breeders’ Cup Classic, finishing second and third, respectively. Garrett Gomez seems to have a good feel for him. If he gets pace to fire upon from the rail he could be deadly. He’s listed at 118 lbs.

Prayer For Relief, owned by Zayat Stables, has quietly had a great 2011 campaign. He started to pick up steam with a victory in the Iowa Derby and parlayed it to wins in the West Virginia and Super Derby. Last time, he was out finished in the Oklahoma Derby behind Redeemed, a next out winner of the Discovery Handicap, and Alternation. Breaking from the far outside could hinder him, but jockey Rafael Bejarano should work out some sort of trip for him. He’s in light at 117 lbs.

While Ruler On Ice and Prayer For Relief will get plenty of action, the third three-year-old in the race is likely to be overlooked. That sophomore, Will’s Wildcat, is undefeated at Churchill Downs. Throw in the fact that the master, Calvin Borel, will be on his back and suddenly he becomes an interesting price horse. He dismissed a very strong group of allowance horses on Breeders Cup Friday, but that was going six furlongs. Can the front running son of Eurosilver stretch out? He will carry 112 lbs in his bid to do so.

Trainer Mike Maker brings two horses to the race. 2010 Bluegrass Stakes winner Stately Victor and 2011 Hawthorne Gold Cup champ Headache. The latter owns a strong record over the course and will try to get back on track after a last place finish in the Breeders’ Cup Classic. He will carry 115 lbs. Stately Victor finished a better than expected fifth in the Breeders’ Cup Turf and was third in the Pacific Classic in August. The colt has never won on dirt and his last win came at Woodbine on September 25, 2010.

Alma d’Oro, Demarcation, Pleasant Prince, Mister Mardi Gras and General Quarters round out of the field.

My top pick to win the 2011 Clark Handicap is Mission Impazible. He loves it at Churchill Downs and the pace is going to set up well for him. He will get the front before either of the favorites and kick strongly for home at 12-1. Who do YOU like?

Be sure to check out Twinspires.com to bet this race along with all of the other great races on Thanksgiving weekend.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: clark handicap, demarcation, flat out, general quarters, headache, mission impazible, mister mardi gras, prayer for relief, ruler on ice, stately victor, will's wildcat, wise dan

2011 Whitney Invitational Handicap Preview

August 4, 2011 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

The Whitney Handicap is the premier race of the Saratoga meeting for older horses. The 1 ⅛ miles race is a grueling test which includes the likes of Alydar, Personal Ensign, Easy Goer, Awesome Again, Lemon Drop Kid, Invasor and Lawyer Ron among its winners.

Last year we nailed Blame ($8.80) as our top selection on the way to a $2,564 Pick 4. We also had Commentator ($10.80) as our top selection and play of the day when he won in 2008.

The 2011 edition of the Whitney looks very strong and could provide a lucrative payoff if you back the right racehorse. Let’s take a look at the field.

Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider): We had this tough runner as our top pick in each of his last two races. The first of those events was the Stephen Foster Handicap where he tried to make a move up the rail, but failed to close effectively at odds of 18-1. After that we backed him again in the Suburban. It turned out to be the right move as he romped home at odds of nearly 14-1. Alex Solis was aboard for the first time that day and elects to stay aboard even though he had options here. Now that everyone else is ready to jump on the train I am ready to hop off. While I like the horse he was a much more appealing prospect at double digit odds. He gets the rail today and has never won going two turns. I’ll pass at 4-1, but recognize that he could win this race.

Friend or Foe (Friends Lake x Unbridled Star by Unbridled) I’m bullish on this colt in the long term, but I don’t like that he has just won race this year. Even though it was a good race in which he defeated Rail Trip by a head, I wish he had a bit more seasoning. On the bright side he proved how talented he is by winning the Empire Classic Handicap by five lengths in his penultimate race last year. I’m confident that he will score a break through win soon, but I don’t know if it will be in the Whitney at 8-1. Jose Lezcano picks up the mount from Alex Solis.

Morning Line (Tiznow x Indian Snow by AP Indy) The Nick Zito trainee scored his best lifetime win over this distance when he won the Pennsylvania Derby last year. Since then he has become a Grade 1 winner by taking the Carter Handicap and was involved in a very close finish in the Breeders Cups Dirt Mile. I’m willing to excuse his last out effort in the Salvator Mile where he ended up fifth. Regular jockey John Velazquez was gone that day and the first three finishers came back to run well with Soaring Empire winning, Kensei finishing behind him and Rule taking a minor stakes race at Saratoga. Things could get heated up front so I expect Johnny V to try and get him to relax behind a few horses. He is as good as any horse in this race and deserves consideration at odds of 10-1.

Giant Oak (Giant’s Causeway x Crafty Oak by Crafty Prospector) The first thing I notice when I look at this horse is the shiny :58 4/5 five furlong breezing bullet he fired over the Saratoga track on July 31. The Donn Handicap winner is clearly getting better as he gets older. His last two races have seen him make two furious charges down the lane only to come up short. The pace wasn’t particularly hot in either of those races, but it could be torrid in this one. That means he will have a big shot at winning. The only bad thing I can see for him is that he will have Shaun Bridgmahon riding. Nothing against the guy, but he is ice cold right now. It is very clear to me that this is a horse that is doing well and thriving at Saratoga and if not for this being a highly contentious field he might be my pick.

Tizway (Tiznow x Bethany by Dajyur) We had this great colt as our top selection in the Metropolitan Mile last out where he cruised to an easy win smashing the clock in 1:32 4/5 at odds of 4-1. Many will be hot to bet him after such an amazing performance, but I will encourage caution before doing so. First, we must consider that that win came over what is clearly his favorite track. Tizway has dominated at Belmont Park with a win in the Kelso and third place finishes in the 2009 Jockey Club Gold Cup and 2010 Met Mile. Furthermore, this colt has proven that his optimal distance is one mile. I’m not saying Tizway can’t or wont win, but the price will not be generous enough as I expect him to be bet well below his morning line odds of 6-1. Rajiv Maragh gets the call to ride.

Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold Your Peace) The Todd Pletcher trainee raced near a very soft pace last out in the Stephen Foster Handicap and just missed holding on while finishing second beaten a neck to upset winner Pool Play. His last win came at Fair Grounds in the New Orleans Handicap where he beat Apart and Giant Oak. His record at the distance is incredible with 2 wins from 3 starts. I know it’s only 2 wins, but when you consider that those wins were the aforementioned New Orleans Handicap and Louisiana Derby that record sounds much better. In the end he rates below my top few horses in here, but would be no surprise for top notch connections. JJ Castellano rides back after boarding him for the first time last out.

Rail Trip (Jump Start x Sweet Trip by Carson City) It’s been a long road to redemption for the 2009 Hollywood Gold Cup winner, but it appears he is back in top form for Jay Em Ess Stable and trainer Richard Dutrow. His first race in over six months came on June 5 in the Easy Goer Stakes at Belmont Park where he set a very rapid pace and was only narrowly defeated by Friend Or Foe. Clearly that is a strong race for a gelding that hadn’t been out in so long. Rail Trip races best near the front and I will look for Ramon Dominguez to put him on the lead. If he is fit enough he could take them all the way at a juicy price of 12-1.

Headache (Tapit x Pamric by Woodman) As horse bettors it is our job to look for the horses that are getting better and capitalize at a big price. We picked Headache to win the Cornhusker Handicap last out and he came through at odds of 9/2. That was a big effort as Miguel Mena angled him outside and he roared past Grade 1 winner Awesome Gem for a 2 ½ length victory. Trainer Mike Maker is no spring chicken and if you don’t know who he is then you should check him out on Google ASAP. The closer will get a big pace to chase and it looks like he is in great form right now. I highly encourage including him on Pick 4 tickets at odds of 20-1. He would come as no surprise if he were to win the Whitney. Ken and Sarah Ramsey might have a big time runner in this former claimer.

Rodman (Malibu Moon x Crystal Gem) It seems like we have hit every horse in this race at some point and Rodman is no exception. He was our big price horse in the Met Mile as we nailed the $378 exacta cold with Rodman second at huge odds of 36-1. He had no business being such a big price in there as the horse has proven he can run with the best of ‘em by easily winning the Irish Tower in his previous start. Rodman was a distant third in the Suburban last out where JJ Castellano put him on the lead and he set fast fractions. While this guy can be effective on the front he is clearly better when closing. His second place finish in the Met happened with him rallying from as far back as ninth. I’m a little worried this isn’t his best distance, but with a perfect 2 for 2 record at Saratoga and a boat load of talent this isn’t a horse you want to leave off your Pick 4 ticket. Edgar Prado gets the mount back for the first time since 2009. I’ll make him the top pick at 20-1.

Apart (Flatter x Detach by Unbridled) Last year’s Super Derby winner comes to Saratoga in search of his first Grade 1 win after finishing third in the Stephen Foster last out. He races for Al Stall and will have Julien Leparoux up for the second time. The closer will get a very fast pace to chase in here, but I’m just not sold that he is good enough to even hit the board in this race. I’m going to pass odds of 6-1 which I consider to be a huge underlay.

Duke Of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) He defeated one of the deepest field of handicap horses we have seen in a very long time two back in the Charles Town Classic. On his best day this horse can win this, but he is sort of like Dr. Jekyll and Mr. Hyde. You never know which one you will get. He closed well last out in the Stephen Foster even after having a very slow pace in front of him and even led at one point before ending up fourth. He has a sharp four furlong work in :46 4/6 B over the track which rated first of 95 moves. I’m bullish at 8-1 and look for him to be finishing very well under Joe Bravo.

In summation my top selection to win the Whitney Invitational Handicap from Saratoga is Rodman (20-1). I love that he is a perfect 2 for 2 at Saratoga and he should race from off the pace with Edgar Prado back up. He showed us in the Metropolitan Mile that he is still a highly talented individual and over looking him at such a big price is a huge mistake. Horses to include on the Pick 4 other than my top selection are Giant Oak, Headache and Duke of Mischief. If you feel like going very deep I would also throw in Morning Line and Rail Trip.

To get our full card picks for all of the horse racing action at Saratoga check out our Saratoga Picks page.

Betting online for the Whitney Handicap is convenient and easy. Just head over to Twin Spires or TVG where new players get a $100+ sign up bonus!

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: apart, duke of mischief, flat out, friend or foe, giant oak, headache, horse betting, horse racing picks, mission impazible, morning line, rail rip, rodman, saratoga, saratoga picks, tizway, whitney handicap, whitney invitational handicap, whitney picks

2011 Stephen Foster Handicap Preview

June 16, 2011 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

The Stephen Foster Handicap is the most prestigious race at Churchill Downs after the Kentucky Derby. Last year’s winner, Blame, went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic. We had him as our top pick that day. Let’s see if we can get the winner again this year.

Flat Out (30-1) He ran huge to be second in the LoneStar Park Handicap last out in his first start since December and second start since April of 2009. The son of Flatter is obviously training well and he still has the talent that allowed him to win the Smarty Jones Stakes as a three-year-old. If he goes off anywhere near 30-1 I’ll have at least a few bucks on him and I will use him on my Pick 4 ticket.

Crown of Thorns (4-1) Surprised most people by defeating Sidney’s Candy last out in the Mervyn Leroy Handicap. The son of Repent can go all day as proved by a second place finish in the Goodwood Stakes and a win in the Robert Lewis as a three-year-old. His current form is sharp, but I have doubts about his ability to race on true dirt. He is a pass for me.

Apart (5-1) Another son of Flatter here. He won the William Schaefer Memorial last out over Colizeo. He looks a cut below the best horses in here, but a switch to jockey Julien Leparoux could help him make up the difference.

Worldy (30-1) Took down the highly regarded Bind last out in his first race since last October. The son of AP Indy has never gone 9 furlongs, but his pedigree says he will love it. His best career race came at Churchill Downs when he was second by a neck in the Northern Dancer Stakes so we know he loves the place. It would take a career effort to win, but I can see him getting a piece at a hueg price.

El Caballo (15-1) I don’t see anything that makes me think the seven-year-old would be competitive here. I’ll pass on him.

Regal Ransom (6-1) I thought he was all washed up, but his last two efforts clearly proved me wrong. He really brough his “A” game last out in the Alysheba where he ended up second by a nose. The extremely versatile son of Distorted Humor has learned to effectively rate and that could make all the difference here. He will be making his third start of the year which is almost always a peak effort. Alan Garcia is going to be sitting on a ton of horse turning for home.

Equestrio (12-1) Many doubted if he fit with this group last out, but he proved everyone wrong by finishing a strong third in the Alysheba beaten only a head. Before that he took down Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In. When I think of his sire Elusive Quality I don’t think of 9 furlong horses, but he already owns a win at the distance. The works are strong and Nick Zito is willing to take a shot. Anytime Zito is willing to try we should be willing to give his horse a chance.

Pool Play (20-1) Trainer Mark Casse is 20% winners moving horses from turf to dirt and this horse will make his first start over a dirt surface. His works have been stellar, but the competition here is fierce. Considering including him fourth on superfecta tickets, but more than that would be a surprise.

Duke of Mischief (6-1) My instincts tell me this horse won’t get much respect at the windows and he really should. He took down one of the best group of older horses in a race that wasn’t a Breeders Cup event in many years last out. The son of Graeme Hall is bred to go the distance and he owns 3 wins going 9 furlongs. Jockey Joe Bravo has ridden him in his last two races and they fit each other well. He is without a doubt a very strong win contender.

Giant Oak (7/2) He came running to make it interesting in the Alysheba last out, but ended up fifth beaten 3/4 of a length. The son of Giant’s Causeway beat a top notch field in the Clark Handicap last fall which is over this same trip. If things get hot up front he will be the primary beneficiary.

Mission Impazible (9/2) JJ Castellano gets the mount on this colt who has a perfect name for what he is trying to do today. Well it’s not quite impossible, but breaking all the way to outside doesn’t help his chances. Last out in the Alysheba Garrett Gomez tried to relax him off the pace and this appears to be a horse that wants to be on the lead or at least very, very close to it. Look for JJ to get him involved from the start and take them as far as he can.

I’m going to swing for the fences here and make Flat Out my top selection to win the Stephen Foster Handicap. His morning line price of 30-1 is just way too good to pass up. His 99 Beyer Speed Figure last out was incredible considering how long he had been off and if he improves just a little that puts him with the best horses in this race. Other selections for the card at Churchill Downs are available on our Free Horse Racing Picks page.

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Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: apart, churchill downs picks, crown of thorns, duke of mischief, el caballo, equestrio, flat out, giant oak, mission impazible, pool play, regal ransom, stephen foster handicap, worldly

2011 Easy Goer Stakes betting preview

June 2, 2011 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

Wow, the $60k ungraded Easy Goer Stakes came up tough! Three of the five entrants are stakes winner while two are graded stakes winners. Let’s take a look at the entrants. Although the field is short, a strong opinion could lead to a good payoff given the competitiveness of the race.

Friend or Foe (Friends Lake x Unbridled Star by Unbridled)- I have always had a lot of faith in this horse and he was my top pick when finishing sixth in the Travers at odds of 24-1. Since then he won the Empire Classic by five lengths and finished fifth beaten three lengths in the Cigar Mile. The colt is a perfect 3 for 3 at Belmont Park and jockey Alex Solis can place him wherever he pleases. I’m projecting a fast pace so look for him to sit right behind the front runners.

Tahitian Warrior (Maria’s Mon x Chatique by Deputy Minister)- I bet this horse in his career debut where he scored by 4 3/4 lengths at odds of 7-1. He hasn’t been nearly that good of a price since, but he could provide value in the Easy Goer. He is a fresh horse and stretching out from 6.5 furlongs to 8.5 furlongs means he ought to be on the lead, but if not he will be very close. This is his first time going two turns which is something I don’t like. I find it incredible that they havent tried the turf with him yet given his strong breeding.Look for him to win next out.

Rail Trip (Jump Start x Sweet Trip by Carson City)- Winner of the Hollywood Gold Cup in 2009, he has missed a lot of time since finishing poorly in the Woodward Stakes last out. He is a winner of three races from four tries at the distance, two Grade 2 races. The works are very strong and he should be close to the front. Ramon Dominguez sees fit to ride this horse for Rick Dutrow. Rail Trip is a very, very live racehorse.

Mission Impazible (Unbridled’s Song x La Paz by Hold your Peace) Failed to fire last out in the Alysheba. Before that he finished first in the Grade 2 New Orleans Handicap at Fair Grounds. He should prompt the pace, but things could be too hot for him today. I question if he is up to running with the likes of these right now.

Convocation (Pulpit x Shade Dance by Nureyev)- Lagged behind a hot pace last out and picked up the pieces to be second in the Grade 3 West Chester. He has finished second 5 times in 7 attempts on this Belmont track. He wouldn’t be a shock, but I don’t think he is capable of winning this one. On the plus side, this race is third off the shelf which is always a strong angle.

I’ll take Friend or Foe as my top pick. He is the only horse that I believe could be going up whereas the rest may have seen their best races already. He could be in the perfect spot turning for home too. Rail Trip is a close second choice. If he reverts to the form that let him win the Hollywood Gold Cup he might jog here. Best of luck and check out our horse betting page for information on how to play the race.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: belmont picks, convocation, easy goer stakes, friend or foe, mission impazible, rail trip, tahitian warrior

Handicapping the Fair Grounds Pick 4

February 16, 2011 By Ryan Patterson 1 Comment

Fair Grounds is the place to be this weekend. They have four very strong races in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, Mineshaft Handicap, Fair Grounds Handicap and Risen Star Stakes. Those four races make up the late 50¢ Pick 4 and are the beginning of the $1 Pick 6. Let’s breakdown my Pick 4 ticket. Join our mailing list for a chance to see my Pick 6 ticket as well as selections from across the nation this weekend. You can do so by entering your name and email address in the form located to the right of this post.

Rachel Alexanda Stakes

Kathmanblu is our top rated three-year-old filly and a clear stand out in this race. The Bluegrass Cat filly has two sharp works since easily taking a $100k minor stakes on the grass. That was after she romped home in the Golden Rod by 8.5 lengths. The price will be short, but they aren’t beating here and I’m not going to waste money trying.

Mineshaft Handicap

This is a tricky race. I’m going with last years Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible as my top selection. He needed his race last out which was his first try since finishing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. He was second that day, but with the added distance his chances improve. Look for him to rate just behind the speed and pounce when the time is right for underrated jockey Rajiv Maragh. I’ll also use Apart, Le Grand Cru and Country Flavor.

Fair Grounds Handicap

Workin For Hops gets a very favorable pace scenario for his first race off the shelf. I love the fact that ace jockey Anna Napravnik opted to get off Gran Estreno to ride him. This is his first race since late September, but he has won on a big layoff before. I’m going to take a chance and leave Gran Estreno off my ticket. The 8-year-old isn’t suited for this distance and the older a horse gets the harder it is to run back to back strong races. Dubious Miss should put in a strong run from the rail. The old timer looks ready to run a peak race. I’ll also include Sleepless Knight for Joe Bravo and Kelly Breen and Loup Breton for new trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Rajiv Maragh.

Risen Star Stakes

If you have been to this site before you know we are crazy about Rogue Romance. He is a standout in the Risen Star and a clear single for me. The pace set up looks perfect too. Look for him to mow them all down in the long Fair Grounds stretch for Runnymede Farm, Ken McPeek and Julien Leparoux. Click here to read more about the Risen Star at our sister site, Triple Crown Champ.

Pick 4: 3/1,3,4,5/1,5,8,10/1

So there you have it, our Pick 4 ticket for Risen Star day at Fair Grounds. It will cost just $8 to play for 50¢. Join our mailing list by filling in your name and email address on the form located on the right side of the page. If you do so you will get our picks for races throughout the nation this weekend as well as a Pick 6 play from Fair Grounds. Look for the picks to go out sometime Thursday afternoon.

Who do you like in these races? I’d love to hear your thoughts. Leave a comment and we can talk about it. I’m also on twitter @gradedstakes.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: apart, country flavor, dubious miss, fair grounds handicap, fair grounds picks, kathmanblu, le grand cru, loup breton, mineshaft handicap, mission impazible, pick 4, rachel alexandra stakes, risen star stakes, rogue romance, sleepless knight, workin for hops

Kentucky Derby Approaching May 1

April 26, 2010 By Ryan Patterson 3 Comments

The First Saturday in May is rapidly drawing closer. The Kentucky Derby took a hit this weekend when probable favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn from consideration after trainer Todd Pletcher discovered a swollen leg. His defection after winning the Wood Memorial and as the favorite follows I Want Revenge who was also going to be the favorite after winning the Wood Memorial in 2009. The defection of Eskendereya makes way for the Bob Baffert trained juvenile champion Lookin at Lucky to become the new favorite.

Todd Pletcher’s best hope for ending his 0-24 skid in the Run for the Roses may have been Eskendereya, but he still has plenty of bullets to fire. Among his entrants this year will be Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible, Sam Davis Stakes winner Rule, and Arkansas Derby runner up Super Saver. The filly Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, and Interactif are also potential chances for Todd Pletcher.

I feel sorry for jockey Johnny Velazquez. He lost Florida Derby winner Quality Road last year and now he has lost Eskendereya. It appears that he will get the mount on Devil May Care if Pletcher’s opts for the Kentucky Derby over the Kentucky Oaks. She is a big lanky filly that is blazing fast, but may not be ready for the Kentucky Derby. I’d like to see her in the Oaks.

This Kentucky Derby is wide open just like last year. Many of the top contenders have big question marks. The overall quality of the field seems sub par and could be average at best. I don’t think we have any chance of seeing a Triple Crown winner. The only horse I could see doing it would be Sidney’s Candy. We still have no idea how good he is. His ability is like a well and we still don’t know if he has come close to the bottom. Does that mean he will be my Kentucky Derby pick? Not at all, but if you told me now that one of these horses was going to sweep the TC I think he would be the one. Who do you like?

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: devil may care, eskendereya, johnny velazquez, kentucky derby, mission impazible, rule, sidney's candy, super saver, Todd Pletcher

Conveyance seeks to stay perfect in the Southwest Stakes

February 14, 2010 By Ryan Patterson Leave a Comment

It seems that every race I’m talking about lately is led by a fast Bob Baffert three-year-old. I don’t know if the Hall of Fame trainer has ever had as many good young colts as he does right now. He is sending out Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes which is raced at 1 mile over the dirt at Oaklawn Park. The son of Indian Charlie is a perfect three for three and was last seen taking the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes. The first three finishers from that race will contest this event. Conveyance showed he can take off the lead when he won last out after being passed on the lead. All three of his wins have come on synthetic surfaces. It will be interesting to see how he responds to dirt.

Bob Baffert isn’t the only master in this race. D Wayne Lukas will send out Grade 1 winner Dublin for the first time since he finished seventh in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes as the even money favorite. He is likely to get a lot of support at the windows. The son of Afleet Alex is working well and will have TJ Thompson in the irons for the first time. If he runs well in this race it is likely that Lukas will target the Rebel for his next start.

Dryfly and Pleasant Storm both looked strong last out when finishing 1-2 respectively in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Dryfly went wire to wire for owner Charles Cella who also owns Oaklawn Park. He might catch a speed duel if Garrett Gomez insists on taking Conveyance to the lead. Pleasent Storm closed from way out to be second in that race. If a speed duel develops he would be the primary beneficiary. Both colts have a strong case to win the Southwest Stakes.

Mission Impazible looked very strong when racing for the first time since April when he finished a close second in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. It appears that he has enough speed to be close if needed but the jockey may prefer to keep him midpack. The son of Unbridled’s Song looks fresh for a run at the Triple Crown, but he has to run huge in this race to get his foot in the door.

Kitty’s Turn, Cardiff Giant, Domonation, Crider, and Cool Bullet round out the field. Who do you like in the Southwest Stakes? Click here for information on how to get my picks and plays. My selections won 4 of 6 races over the weekend. Don’t miss out!

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: Bob Baffert, cardiff giant, conveyance, cool bullet, d wayne lukas, domonation, dryfly, kitty's turn, mission impazible, pleasant storm, southwest stakes