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Bodemeister the one to beat in Arkansas Derby

April 12, 2012 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 1 Arkansas Derby from Oaklawn Park has been a nearly perfect Kentucky Derby prep race in the last 10 years. In that time it has produced Kentucky Derby winners Smarty Jones and Super Saver as well Triple Crown race winners Afleet Alex and Curlin. Also notable is Lawyer Ron, who would go on to win two more Grade 1 races in his following season. This year, 11 horses have gathered to compete for the nine furlong race’s $1 million purse. The Arkansas Derby is race 11 on a 12 race card for Saturday.

Dale Roman’s hasn’t lost faith in Cozzetti (Cozzene x Lemon Drop Cello by Lemon Drop Kid) despite three lackluster races in a row. He was last seen rallying for third in the Grade 2 Tampa Bay Derby. His only win came over a sloppy track at Churchill Downs. His breeding indicates he is probably best suited for grass races. The connections have caught Derby Fever; look for him on the weeds in the near future. Backers will be rewarded with odds of 15-1 if he can get it done.

One of the most promising runners in this field is Stat (Unbridled’s Song x Di’s Time by Gilded Time). He was a first out maiden winner at Saratoga in July before finishing second to Union Rags in the Saratoga Special. His 2012 campaign began with a fourth place finish in optional claiming company at Gulfstream. He avenged that loss with a powerful 6 ¼ length win under the same conditions at Gulfstream, but going one mile over a fast track instead of 6 ½ furlongs over a sloppy surface. Trainer Todd Pletcher has brought him up to this race perfectly and he could be ready for a peak effort. John Velazquez will ride the 10-1 fourth choice.

Najjaar (Jazil x Hasheema by Darshaan) will be rallying from far back under three time Kentucky Derby winning jockey Calvin Borel. He was last seen finishing sixth in the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes, a race where he was as many as 20 lengths behind. The bay colt has the advantage of a superb route pedigree and should be finishing well, so long as Borel doesn’t leave him with too much to do in the late stages of the race. Dan Peitz trains the 10-1 shot for Shadwell Stables.

Jake Mo (Giacomo x Credit Approval by With Approval) is too large of a price at 30-1. The stakes winning juvenile has done well as a sophomore with fourth place finishes in the Smarty Jones and Rebel Stakes as well as runner up effort behind Castaway in the Southwest Stakes. He was defeated just a combined 9 ¼ lengths in those three races. His pedigree says he will run for days. M. Clifton Berry gets the call to ride for Allan Milligan.

It’s a bit odd that 5-2 shot Secret Circle (Eddington x Ragtime Hope by Dixieland Band) isn’t the morning favorite after wins in the local Southwest and Rebel Stakes. Last year’s Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner looked beaten more than once last out in the Rebel, but he doggedly stayed on for the ¾ length win. He’s all heart and if he’s going to lose this race he will make the winner work for it. Rafael Bejarano keeps the mount for trainer Bob Baffert.

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Isn’t He Clever (Smarty Jones x Sharp Minister by Deputy Minister) will look to pad his graded stakes earnings in hopes of making it to the Kentucky Derby. He produced a very sharp effort to be second last out in the Grade 3 Sunland Derby. His works are sharp and he has the look of a gelding that is getting better with each race. Trainer Henry Dominguez has opted to remove the blinkers for this race. Robby Albarado picks up the mount the on the 6-1 runner.

Optimizer (English Channel x Indy Pick by A.P. Indy) is the most perplexing horse in the race. He got up for second with a furious rally in the Rebel Stakes at 28-1, but before that he was well beaten in the Risen Star and Smarty Jones Stakes. He will need a quick pace and a little luck to win the Arkansas Derby at 30-1. D Wayne Lukas trains and last year’s winning jockey, Jon Court, will ride.

Trainer Ken McPeek is adding Lasix for Atigun (Istan x Rimini Road by Dynaformer) who faded last out after racing mid pack in the Rebel Stakes. The talented closer was a hard charging fifth in last year’s Grade 2 Kentucky Jockey Club Stakes. Before the Rebel he won an allowance race going 8 ½ furlongs at Oaklawn. A sharp five furlong move in :59 3/5 B over the Oaklawn track that ranked first of 44 works that day could indicate that he is ready to break through with a career best effort. Terry Thompson will ride at 30-1.

I’ve always been high on Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat x Miner’s Blessing by Forty Niner) and I refuse to give up on him just yet. The 15-1 shot didn’t produce a strong rally last out in the Rebel Stakes, but that was his first race of the year. As a two-year-old he dominated the Grade 3 Delta Jackpot Stakes and won the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth Park. Corey Nakatani is staying up for trainer Steve Asmussen and I have to think he’s going to come with a big run this time. Just a gut feeling that his clearly talented colt will get it together this time.

Raconteur (A.P. Indy x Miss Kate by Storm Cat) has one of the best pedigrees around. He was last seen getting up late to win an overnight stakes race at Laurel. The second place finisher there, Hakama, returned to be third in a deep edition of the Grade 3 Illinois Derby. Before that he finished seventh in the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes after winning a maiden and an optional claiming race. Chris DeCarlo is in to ride at 15-1.

Bodemeister (Empire Maker x Untouched Talent by Storm Cat) was magnificent last out when finishing second by ¾ of a length to Creative Cause in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes. It was just his third career race and first time facing winners. Jockey Mike Smith personally called owner Zayat Stables to request the mount on this colt that is clearly on tilt towards a bid in the Kentucky Derby. He will remove the blinkers for this race. The speedy 9-5 favorite is the one to beat for trainer Bob Baffert.

This is a tough spot to ask Stat to go two turns for the first time, but I’ve got a feeling he will make his presence felt in this spot at 10-1. He is competing third off the shelf for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. It’s hard to pass those two up at double digit odds. The horses to beat, as indicated by their odds, are Secret Circle and Bodemeister. The latter is probably the better of the two.  However, I’m going to call for Stat to pull the upset.

Who do you like? Leave a comment below and share your opinion, or send me a tweet @gradedstakes!

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The Factor looking for a ticket to Louisville in the Arkansas Derby

April 14, 2011 By 4 Comments

The Arkansas Derby has been a very strong prep for the Kentucky Derby in recent history. Winners of the Run for the Roses to exit this one include Sunny’s Halo and Smarty Jones. This race has also proved to be a great prep for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Afleet Alex took both of those after winning the Arkansas Derby and Curlin won the Preakness. Concern won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1994 after taking this event.

The field for the 2011 Arkansas Derby is stacked and this could be the best prep race of the year. Let’s take a look at the contenders.

Nehro (Mineshaft x Afleet mare) Corey Nakatani gets a leg up on this colt that finished second in the Louisiana Derby last out. Nakatani has never won the Kentucky Derby despite having an otherwise illustrious career. Nehro has improved immensely in his last two starts and could still be on the way up. I like his running style and he should be only a few lengths back of The Factor.

Elite Alex (Afleet Alex x Unbridled mare) Tim Ritchey trainee adds blinkers after finishing fourth last out in the Louisiana Derby. I like this equipment change. It should have him much closer and making his late move much more effective. His latest work of 1:11 3/5 H for six furlongs tells me he is on tilt for this race. Calvin Borel loves him so why shouldn’t we?

The Factor (War Front x Miswaki mare) This horse is the definition of speed to the lead. He will find the front no matter what. He did so in his last three starts which included a word record breaking maiden win, a victory in the Grade 2 San Vicente and a win in the Grade 2 Rebel. Unfortunately for him he wont make an easy lead in this one and he has to go 9 furlongs. Despite that he still towers over this field on paper and someone will have to jump up and run a huge race to beat him.

Brethren (Distorted Humor x AP Indy mare) The full brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver suffered his first defeat last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. It looked like he had that field over a barrel, but late in the game he faded. Todd Pletcher will throw blinkers on here and his works are VERY sharp. I have to think they aren’t going to let The Factor get away with easy fractions. He is dangerous.

Sway Away (Afleet Alex x Seattle Slew mare) I love that Patrick Valenzuela gets the mount on this deep closer. He might be able to work some of his magic and get him rolling again. Last out he failed to fire in the Rebel Stakes, but before that he only missed The Factor by 3/4 of a length in the San Vicente. That was after being on the bench for over six months. The Arkansas Derby will be his third race after the layoff so we can expect a peak effort. If the pace is fast he will be loaded for bear turning for home. Trainer Jeff Bonde has added blinkers.

Caleb’s Posee (Posse x Slewacide mare) Was the only one running at The Factor in the Rebel, but still finished 6 lengths back in second.On his best day he can compete in this race, but with so many good colts in here it is hard for me to like him. This is due in large part to my concern of his ability to go 9 furlongs.

Truman’s Commander (Friend’s Lake x Naevus mare) Privately purchased by Robert Lapenta and given to Nick Zito after his last win which was a 6 length maiden special weight romp. His works are stupendous, but this is only his second try of the year. It is very clear that he has improved a ton since last year, but by how much? I don’t think it is enough to run well in the Arkansas Derby, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he did well in the future.

Alternation (Distorted Humor x Seattle Slew mare) Had to scratch from the Rebel at the gate after acting poorly. I love his pedigree and his form is strong as well. He is a winner of three in a row including a win over Elite Alex two races back. This race will be a class test, but I don’t see any reason why he cant pass that test.

Dance City (City Zip x Pleasant Colony mare) Was second to a colt named Arthur’s Tale in the debut. Arthur’s Tale was relatively unknown until he finished second in the Wood Memorial last weekend. After that race he broke his maiden going this distance at Gulfstream Park and then beat a top colt named Cal Nation in allowance company. I love his :59 B five furlong move and I hope he keeps The Factor honest as he will be near the front.

Archarcharch (Arch x Woodman mare) Was my top pick when he won the Southwest Stakes at odds of 14-1. He ran on well to be third in the Rebel Stakes last out. The extra distance will do wonders for him as should a faster pace. He had a nice work of 1:12 B for six furlongs on April 5. All systems are go and this one should put in the best race of his life. That is why I am making him my top selection to win the Arkansas Derby.

J P’s Gusto (Successful Appeal x Caller I D mare) Looks to be sitting on a monster race after two tremendous :58 3/5 B five furlong works. If this race were a mile he might be my top pick to win, but I cant see him navigating the 9 furlongs distance successful.

J W Blue (Sky Mesa x Dynaformer mare) This colt’s sire produced 2009 Bluegrass Stakes winner General Quarters. He was fifth last out in the Rebel Stakes and will add blinkers for this race. He was off slow in the Rebel and still came on strong. I don’t think he can win this thing, but if he gets a better trip he might hit the board at a big number.

Saratoga Red (Eddington x Siphone mare) D Wayne Lukas has a tendency to throw his horses to the wolves a bit too soon. Despite that this one fared decently in the Rebel after having only one previous start. I think he could improve here, but the post will hinder him. Use him on the bottom of superfecta tickets and maybe trifecta tickets if you are brave.

The 2011 Arkansas Derby is as good of a race as you will find and will be one of the top 2 preps for this years Kentucky Derby. My top pick as I previously stated is Archarcharch. I love the way he is progressing and I feel like he could be coming into a peak effort. I’ll box him with The Factor and Elite Alex. Who do YOU like?

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Bettor Friendly Tracks; where to get the most bang for your buck!

January 4, 2011 By 2 Comments

*Please note that this post is just over a year old. While most of the information is still accurate, takeout rates have risen in California.*

Horse bettors are presented with a million different variables on any given day. There are almost always at least 10 tracks to bet at any given moment. There are a minimum of 11 “traditional” wagers that can be made. These include Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, and the Pick 6. Many circumstances are beyond the bettor’s control. Tracks can come up sloppy. Turf courses can be rated good or soft. Jockeys can fall off their mount. These things are uncontrollable, but we as bettors are able to control certain variables such as takeout. Will I place my wagers at the track with 25% exacta takeout, or the one with 18.5% takeout? Will I give my business to the track that has large and competitive fields, or the track that has small fields with many favorites finding the winners circle?

There are many factors to consider when deciding which track offers the best bang for the buck. The number one factor is size and competitiveness of the fields. If favorites are winning a disproportionate amount of races it will be hard to make money. If the majority of races at a track have only 6-8 horses or even less then exotics will pay little to nothing unless a huge long shot is able to win and the favorite runs out of the money. The wagering menu is also an important factor. Dime superfectas offer great value in fields of 10 horses or more. The same can be said for the 50-cent trifecta. Rolling Pick 3’s and the Pick 4 and 6 wagers offer great value for those who are able to string together several winners in a row. Takeouts must also be taken into consideration when making your decision. Whether you realize it or not, YOU have a choice when it comes to where you will bet your hard earned money. Let’s take a look at the top five bettor friendly tracks in the United States along with some honorable mentions.

#1 Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)- It was a tough decision, but the storied Churchill Downs ranks as the most bettor friendly racetrack in the entire United States. Whether it’s the beautiful scenery behind the legendary twin spires, low takeouts, or full fields, gamblers cannot go wrong with Churchill Downs. Home to the Kentucky Derby, this track is beloved by many fans. The Run for the Roses is one of the best betting races you will find, but there is much more to Churchill Downs than just a single race. One of the things I love best about Churchill Downs is the “real dirt”. While many gamblers have no problem with synthetic tracks, I find them harder to handicap and I know a lot of people out there would agree with me. Regular dirt races are much easier to handicap, and thus easier for gamblers to make money. The second thing I love about Churchill Downs is the diversity in race types. Churchill Downs is one of the only tracks I can think of where you might see low level claimers and Grade 1 winners compete on the same day on a regular basis.

The takeouts at Churchill Downs are very reasonable. The track keeps 16% of the Win-Place-Show pools, and 19% of all exotic pools. The amount of money in the pools is among the highest in the nation due to Churchill Downs popularity and strong racing. Their wager menu is very strong. They offer 50 cent Trifectas, Pick 3’s, and Pick 4’s. They also have the very popular dime superfecta wager. These wagers shouldn’t be underestimated. They allow bettors to stretch their bankroll and offer more bang for your buck. Average field size at Churchill Downs is 8.28 according to information provided by the Horseplayers Association of North America. I also like Churchill Downs because of their very useful advanced deposit wagering service (www.twinspires.com). Wagering online is very convenient and has many benefits, but we will save that discussion for another time. Churchill Downs has set the bar for other tracks when it comes to treating the bettor well.

#2 Keeneland (Lexington, Kentucky)- While the Kentucky racing circuit certainly has problems that it needs to address, the top two tracks when it comes to wagering lie in the Bluegrass State. Keeneland is one of the premier meets in horse racing. The beautiful location combined with the highest quality of racing makes Keeneland a must visit for all horse racing fans. The feature race in the spring is the Bluegrass Stakes, which has produced countless Kentucky Derby winners. It is just one of many excellent races at Keeneland. The takeout rate of 16% for Win-Place-Show wagers and 19% on exotic wagers is very reasonable. The takeout rates in Kentucky are among the best in the entire nation. Keeneland is similar to Churchill Downs in many ways. Both have top notch racing and they share the same takeout rates. They even offer most of the same wagers. The place where they part the most is in their racing surfaces. Keeneland has Polytrack while Churchill Downs still has traditional dirt.

Many bettors often complain about the trickiness of handicapping Keeneland due to its Polytrack surface. While it can be difficult at times, it isn’t impossible to figure out. For those that are baffled by the Polytrack, Keeneland offers a complete database of information about the Polytrack. It is available for free on their website and is titled “PolyCapping”.  There is an abundance of valuable information available at www.keeneland.com, and it is all free.  Other resources available online are the Winners Book, and Clocker’s Comments. The Winners Book contains information about every horse that won in the previous meet. Some of the information included is the winning jockey, post time odds, morning line odds, and much more. Clockers Comments is one of the most valuable resources you will find anywhere. The clocker at Keeneland makes notes for every horse that works there. This information is invaluable, particularly when handicapping maiden races with first time starters. The final thing I like about Keeneland is their excellent contests. They have handicapping contests quite frequently both on site and online. I recommend any handicapper that wants a challenge to give these contests a try. Keeneland and Churchill are neck and neck for first and second. You can’t go wrong with either track. Keeneland is a credit to the entire racing industry.

#3 Oaklawn Park (Hot Springs, Arkansas)- While Keeneland and Churchill Downs clearly set the standard for doing right by the bettor, Oaklawn Park isn’t too far behind. The facilities at Oaklawn are top of the line and will put a smile on even the most well traveled track enthusiast. The feature race at Oaklawn is the Arkansas Derby. It is a great betting race and has presented us with many future great horses such as Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Curlin just to name a few. Oaklawn is also home to the Apple Blossom, a Grade 1 race won by potential Horse of the Year Zenyatta in 2008. The takeout rates at Oaklawn are solid at 19% for Win-Place-Show and 21% for exotic wagers. The average field size is 9.04 according to data gathered by the Horseplayers Association of North America. This is a solid number and ranks Oaklawn in the top tier of all tracks for that statistic. The pool sizes are strong and average over $100k per race.

Oaklawn offers both the 50 cent trifecta and dime superfecta wagers. These wagers help bettors to obtain value, especially when making bets on races that have large fields. The track has benefited from increased purses thanks to an onsite casino. Increasing the purses subsequently lead to better horses racing at this track. Gamblers are able to join the Oaklawn Park Winner’s Circle Player’s Club. Members are rewarded for wagering at Oaklawn and can use the points they earn to buy things like a Daily Racing Form, food, or cash. Oaklawn has some of the finest race calling in the entire country thanks to track announcer Terry Wallace. He has delivered race calls for 36 years and hasn’t missed a single race at Oaklawn since 1975. His calls are some of the best around, and he has called 19,621 races at Oaklawn without missing a beat. While Oaklawn is a top notch track there are a few things I would like to see them improve upon. Their website is lacking and doesn’t even begin to come close to Keeneland. Other than that and a few other small details they are doing a wonderful job. There is a reason they call Oaklawn Park the Saratoga of the South; they treat the horseman and the bettor very well. Owner Charles Cella has always maintained that Oaklawn is about the horse, and he is making good on that promise.

#4 Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, California)- There is a reason that Santa Anita has hosted the last two Breeders Cup World Championships. This track is one of the finest in the entire world. Aptly named “The Great Race Place”, Santa Anita is home to the “Big Cap”, better known as the Santa Anita Handicap, and the Santa Anita Derby. Both are Grade 1 events that attract some of the finest horses in their divisions. This track has some of the best takeout ratings around. Their Win-Place-Show takeout is just 15.43%, ranking them in the top five of all tracks in North America for that category. The exotic takeout is a bit higher than some at 20.68%, but is still more than reasonable. The average field size is about average at 8.53 horses per race. Santa Anita offers the dime superfecta wager, but at this point in time does not offer 50 cent trifectas or 50 cent Pick 4’s. That is something I would like to see change in the near future.

One of my favorite reasons to bet Santa Anita is the $2 minimum Pick 6 wager. It isn’t uncommon for the wager to pay in excess of $100,000. If you are able to string together six winners in a row, you will be handsomely rewarded. The difficulty of the wager, combined with the massive amounts of money in the pool allows this to happen. The Super High 5 wager offered at Santa Anita represents another chance for a huge score. To a hit a Super High 5 the bettor must pick the first five finishers in a given race. It’s hard enough to hit a trifecta these days, so hitting the High 5 will almost always result in a huge pay day. Santa Anita’s website has Pick 6 carryover alerts for all tracks on the southern California circuit. Santa Anita is the perfect destination for the handicapper seeking the score of a lifetime.

#5 Gulfstream Park (Hallandale, Florida)- Home to the SunShine Millions, Florida Derby, and Donn Handicap, Gulfstream Park is a top notch track that bettors love. Due in large part to the excellent weather, this track has plenty of great horses to bet on when it runs from January to April. Winners of the Donn Handicap can often be found in the Dubai World Cup later in the year, and the same can be said for the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Gulfstream has excellent field size, averaging 9.07 horses per race according to the Horseplayers Association of North America. The takeouts for Win-Place-Show are acceptable at 17%. The trifecta and superfecta takeouts are too high at 25%. The Pick 6 takeout is 15%, and all other wagers are 20%.

I really like the takeout numbers for Gulfstream, minus the trifecta and superfectas. Those large numbers can really take a bite out of your payoffs. Gulfstream currently accepts the Dime Superfecta and 50 cent Pick 4 wagers. These wagers offer good value, but the excessive superfecta takeout means I’d rather play that wager at another track. The Good Luck Players Club is a nice thing for onsite bettors. It allows customers to accrue points for every wager they make, and the points can be spent on various items. Overall I was disappointed with the usefulness of their website. Keeneland clearly sets the standard in this area, and most racks have a lot of catching up to do. On the whole, Gulfstream is a good track to wager on, but it has some work to do in order to catch up to the top four.

Honorable Mentions:

Del Mar- I love this track, and I could find little wrong with it. However, I felt it was just a bit lower than Santa Anita in terms of quality. Where the turf meets the surf, Del Mar is one of the best tracks in the country and bettors can’t go wrong with this one.

Saratoga- The Spa is a great track for win bettors, but the excessive trifecta, superfecta, Pick 3 and Pick 4 takeouts caused me to leave them out of the top five. The pools always have tons of money in them, and the quality of racing is almost unparalleled. If you’re going to bet in New York, then Saratoga is the place to do so.

Hoosier Park- This track has great field size and low takeouts. However the pools are small in comparison to the big boys, and I believe in betting into larger pools. This typically results in larger payouts. Hoosier should be the top pick for anyone seeking to bet on a smaller track.

Evangeline Downs- In my experience this track is a graveyard for favorites. Evangeline often has very large fields over 10 horses and it’s never a surprise to see a huge long shot find the winners circle. If you like making win bets on horses at big odds then look no further than Evangeline Downs.

Overall it is clear that Kentucky comes out in front when it comes to giving bettors the best bang for their buck. Churchill Downs and Keeneland are far ahead of all of their competition overall. Santa Anita is clearly the place to be if you are looking for a life-changing score. Oaklawn and Gulfstream are both excellent meets that cater to players that like traditional dirt racing and excellent fields. While takeout, field size and field quality are very important I advise you to not lose sight of the reason you are wagering. I think I can speak for the majority of horseplayers when I say we bet the horses because it is something that we love dearly. Stay within your comfort zone and remember the most important rule; have fun.

*I would like to give a special thanks to HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) for the excellent work that they do and for gathering a large portion of information about the tracks and making it available on their website. If you would like to access their track information chart that includes takeout rates and much more visit: http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbyoverallscore.html.

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