
The Arkansas Derby has been a very strong prep for the Kentucky Derby in recent history. Winners of the Run for the Roses to exit this one include Sunny’s Halo and Smarty Jones. This race has also proved to be a great prep for the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Afleet Alex took both of those after winning the Arkansas Derby and Curlin won the Preakness. Concern won the Breeders Cup Classic in 1994 after taking this event.
The field for the 2011 Arkansas Derby is stacked and this could be the best prep race of the year. Let’s take a look at the contenders.
Nehro (Mineshaft x Afleet mare) Corey Nakatani gets a leg up on this colt that finished second in the Louisiana Derby last out. Nakatani has never won the Kentucky Derby despite having an otherwise illustrious career. Nehro has improved immensely in his last two starts and could still be on the way up. I like his running style and he should be only a few lengths back of The Factor.
Elite Alex (Afleet Alex x Unbridled mare) Tim Ritchey trainee adds blinkers after finishing fourth last out in the Louisiana Derby. I like this equipment change. It should have him much closer and making his late move much more effective. His latest work of 1:11 3/5 H for six furlongs tells me he is on tilt for this race. Calvin Borel loves him so why shouldn’t we?
The Factor (War Front x Miswaki mare) This horse is the definition of speed to the lead. He will find the front no matter what. He did so in his last three starts which included a word record breaking maiden win, a victory in the Grade 2 San Vicente and a win in the Grade 2 Rebel. Unfortunately for him he wont make an easy lead in this one and he has to go 9 furlongs. Despite that he still towers over this field on paper and someone will have to jump up and run a huge race to beat him.
Brethren (Distorted Humor x AP Indy mare) The full brother to 2010 Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver suffered his first defeat last out in the Tampa Bay Derby. It looked like he had that field over a barrel, but late in the game he faded. Todd Pletcher will throw blinkers on here and his works are VERY sharp. I have to think they aren’t going to let The Factor get away with easy fractions. He is dangerous.
Sway Away (Afleet Alex x Seattle Slew mare) I love that Patrick Valenzuela gets the mount on this deep closer. He might be able to work some of his magic and get him rolling again. Last out he failed to fire in the Rebel Stakes, but before that he only missed The Factor by 3/4 of a length in the San Vicente. That was after being on the bench for over six months. The Arkansas Derby will be his third race after the layoff so we can expect a peak effort. If the pace is fast he will be loaded for bear turning for home. Trainer Jeff Bonde has added blinkers.
Caleb’s Posee (Posse x Slewacide mare) Was the only one running at The Factor in the Rebel, but still finished 6 lengths back in second.On his best day he can compete in this race, but with so many good colts in here it is hard for me to like him. This is due in large part to my concern of his ability to go 9 furlongs.
Truman’s Commander (Friend’s Lake x Naevus mare) Privately purchased by Robert Lapenta and given to Nick Zito after his last win which was a 6 length maiden special weight romp. His works are stupendous, but this is only his second try of the year. It is very clear that he has improved a ton since last year, but by how much? I don’t think it is enough to run well in the Arkansas Derby, but I wouldn’t be shocked if he did well in the future.
Alternation (Distorted Humor x Seattle Slew mare) Had to scratch from the Rebel at the gate after acting poorly. I love his pedigree and his form is strong as well. He is a winner of three in a row including a win over Elite Alex two races back. This race will be a class test, but I don’t see any reason why he cant pass that test.
Dance City (City Zip x Pleasant Colony mare) Was second to a colt named Arthur’s Tale in the debut. Arthur’s Tale was relatively unknown until he finished second in the Wood Memorial last weekend. After that race he broke his maiden going this distance at Gulfstream Park and then beat a top colt named Cal Nation in allowance company. I love his :59 B five furlong move and I hope he keeps The Factor honest as he will be near the front.
Archarcharch (Arch x Woodman mare) Was my top pick when he won the Southwest Stakes at odds of 14-1. He ran on well to be third in the Rebel Stakes last out. The extra distance will do wonders for him as should a faster pace. He had a nice work of 1:12 B for six furlongs on April 5. All systems are go and this one should put in the best race of his life. That is why I am making him my top selection to win the Arkansas Derby.
J P’s Gusto (Successful Appeal x Caller I D mare) Looks to be sitting on a monster race after two tremendous :58 3/5 B five furlong works. If this race were a mile he might be my top pick to win, but I cant see him navigating the 9 furlongs distance successful.
J W Blue (Sky Mesa x Dynaformer mare) This colt’s sire produced 2009 Bluegrass Stakes winner General Quarters. He was fifth last out in the Rebel Stakes and will add blinkers for this race. He was off slow in the Rebel and still came on strong. I don’t think he can win this thing, but if he gets a better trip he might hit the board at a big number.
Saratoga Red (Eddington x Siphone mare) D Wayne Lukas has a tendency to throw his horses to the wolves a bit too soon. Despite that this one fared decently in the Rebel after having only one previous start. I think he could improve here, but the post will hinder him. Use him on the bottom of superfecta tickets and maybe trifecta tickets if you are brave.
The 2011 Arkansas Derby is as good of a race as you will find and will be one of the top 2 preps for this years Kentucky Derby. My top pick as I previously stated is Archarcharch. I love the way he is progressing and I feel like he could be coming into a peak effort. I’ll box him with The Factor and Elite Alex. Who do YOU like?


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