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Free Pick: Krypton (7-2) in the Virginia Derby

July 14, 2010 By Ryan 2 Comments

I saw an interview with Joe Bravo on TV last week. The interviewer asked Joe what his favorite types of races are. Jersey Joe, who has been interviewed  by this site, said that he relishes racing on the turf. Just as our friend Joe likes riding those races, I  enjoy handicapping them. The Virginia Derby is the perfect chance to do so. The Grade 2 event for three-year-olds is contested over the classic distance of 10 furlongs.

Paddy O’ Prado, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, and winner of the Colonial Turf Cup, is the 7/5 morning line favorite. The son of El Prado is one of my favorite horses this year. Trainer Dale Romans is having an excellent year in 2010, and jockey Kent Desormeaux is as good as he has ever been. If Paddy O’ Prado loses it probably wont be for lack of training or jockey skill. I’ll go in another direction despite the obvious talent of this horse.

I like Krypton to take this race. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee was last seen narrowly taking the Grade 3 Prince Hill Stakes at Belmont Park over a VERY good colt named Nordic Truce with new jockey Rajiv Maragh in the irons. Krypton has great pedigree being a son of the enormous Rock Hard Ten. His runners have taken to the turf very well.

Krypton has the right running style to win this race. He will sit off one or two horses and make a big move entering the stretch. The Florida bred runner worked a very sharp 1:00 2/5 B at the Saratoga training track on Sunday. I love his 7/2 price and I think he could even go off higher than that. All systems are go.

Other horses to consider are Stately Victor, and Interactif. Stately Victor won the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes earlier this year with a powerful closing kick. This will the first time he has been on the weeds since that victory. He broke his maiden over the turf at Saratoga last summer. Interactif won the Grade 3 With Anticipation and Grade 3 Bourbon before finishing a close third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year. His connections unsuccessfully attempted the Belmont Stakes last out. He should improve while returning to the grass.

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Kentucky Derby Top 10

April 11, 2010 By Ryan 11 Comments

Are you counting down the days yet? I know I am. There are 20 days until the Kentucky Derby. All of the major preps except for the Lexington Stakes have been conducted. Some horses will get injured and kept out of the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, but we pretty much know who is who at this point in time. Let’s take a look at my top contenders.

#1 Eskendereya- If this colt were a character from a movie he would be Clubber Lang from Rocky III. He reminds me of this quote from Mickey in that movie: “No, he ain’t just another fighter! This guy is a wrecking machine! And he’s hungry!”. My prediction for the Kentucky Derby? …..Pain! This son of Giant’s Causeway has a gun in a knife fight.

#2 Sidney’s Candy- I’ve said for a while that we don’t know how good this colt really is. Even after winning the Santa Anita Derby I STILL don’t think we have seen the bottom of him. I doubt he is as good as my #1 selection and his running style may compromise his chances. Can Talamo get him to rate? It might not matter if he is “just that good”.

#3 Lookin at Lucky- This colt’s name is quite an oxymoron. He has won 6 of 8 races, and if not for two horrible trips he might be undefeated. I love the way he still rallied to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby despite being pushed into the rail early in the race. He has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs. He is in great hands with Bob Baffert and big money rider Garrett Gomez.

#4 Paddy O’ Prado- I thought he was gone in the stretch of the Bluegrass Stakes until Stately Victor totally freaked and won the race. He is steadily improving and I just have a funny feeling that this colt is for real. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has a great record in the Kentucky Derby.

#5 Rule- The setup of the Florida Derby worked against him. I was nearly 100% sure a closer wouldn’t win that race. I loved his 2010 debut win when he took the Sam Davis Stakes. I’m not sure he is a candidate for top honors, but I can see him running a big race.

#6 Dublin- If he wasn’t in D Wayne Lukas’s barn I probably wouldn’t give him a shot. He had a perfect chance to win Arkansas Derby, but failed to go for the jugular late in the race. Monitor his training in the days leading up to the race.

#7 Awesome Act- He looked poised for a big run in the Wood Memorial turning for home, but when Leparoux unleashed him there wasn’t much there. However, I believe he lost a shoe at the start of the race. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give a good impression of himself on Kentucky Derby day.

#8 Noble’s Promise- His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby sure didn’t help his chances. Ken McPeek is still on the fence in terms of deciding to race him in the Run for the Roses.

#9 Super Saver- Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt always give a good account of himself. His running style will probably hurt his chances on the First Saturday in May.

#10 Ice Box- I’m wary of this colt because he won the Florida Derby closing into a tough pace. How will he do when the track doesn’t play in his favor?

So there you have it, my top ten contenders for the Kentucky Derby. This list is almost  certain to change between now and May 1. Kentucky Derby betting will be very interesting, exciting, and fun this year. Who do you like? Leave a comment and join the conversation!

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