Some call it the biggest race in the world, or perhaps the most important. The winner is more often than not named Horse of the Year. The race is the Breeders Cup Classic, and the stakes are clearly high. I covered the race extensively for the National Thoroughbred Racing Association last year. My top pick, Quality Road, was scratched at the gate. It feels like just yesterday this race ran, but much has happened since then. Let’s examine the race!

The $5,000,000 event returns to Churchill Downs and natural dirt this year. Defending champion Zenyatta will be a definitive favorite. The undefeated mare is 19 for 19 on her career with wins in the Santa Margarita, Apple Blossom, Vanity, Clement L. Hirsch, and Lady’s Secret this year. It’s clear that she hasn’t defeated much outside of the mare St.

Trinians this year, but the same could have been said in 2009. Trainer John Sheriffs says she is as good or  better now than when she won in 2009. Jockey Mike Smith feels the same way.

Zenyatta’s closing kick is among the best in the history of thoroughbred racing, and you can bank on her mowing horses down in the stretch. She isn’t a lock though. This will be the best field she has ever faced by far. This will also be her first time running over the track. Weather can always be a factor too. Zenyatta has never competed on a wet track.

In my eyes, she will have to out kick Preakness winner Lookin At Lucky, and Foster Handicap winner  Blame. That won’t be done easily. Obviously, her chances are big, but just like in 2009, I’m not willing to concede this thing to her. That doesn’t mean I’m foolish enough to leave her off my tickets though! I’ve always been a bit of a doubter about Zenyatta, but if she can win this race I’ll finally agree that she is one of the best to ever step on the track.

The second choice in this race will be Al Stall and Claiborne Farm’s Blame. The son of Arch is a wonderful animal. I remember having dinner after  a day at Keeneland earlier this year where I chatted with his exercise rider. He said he would be Horse of the Year before Blame had even ran a race. If he is able to win this race then the exercise rider will be right.

Blame is ridden by Garrett Gomez. The journeyman jockey has ice in his veins and will make sure this guy gets an excellent ride. Blame’s closing style should do him well here. He has proved in the past he can make up ground if the pace is slow. That shouldn’t be the case here.  He’s a bit of a grinder. It looked as if he was dead in the water late in the Whitney against Quality Road, but he was able to dig deep and get past him.

Despite all the great things he has done this year, Blame lost his last race in the Jockey Club Gold Cup when Haynesfield wired the field. That doesn’t bother me at all. I don’t want my horse peaking in his prep race. I believe Blame is ready to run the race of his life at Churchill Downs on November 6. That doesn’t mean he will be my top pick though. I’m going to wait for the PPs and watch the news closely before I make that  decision. However, he is definitely on the short list!

The third choice in the Breeders Cup Classic betting will be Preakness Stakes, and Haskell Invitational winner Lookin At Lucky. The three-year-old is one of the most tenacious animals alive. He just keeps on coming no matter what the circumstances are. He may not win, but Lucky is going to run his heart out trying. You can bank on that. The Martin Garcia piloted son of Smart Strike has one thing going for him that no one else does. That is Bob Baffert.

The silver haired Hall of Fame member is the best trainer in the world. To you that may be an opinion, but to me it is a fact. I’ll take Bob Baffert with a talented colt over just about anyone else in most cases. His charge can get the distance and he loves the surface. He’s also quick enough to get to the leaders before Zenyatta or Blame. If he strikes the lead, will be passed?  To the best of my knowledge, Lookin At Lucky has never been passed after  he has struck the lead. That may not matter, because many things that have never happened before happen all the time. Especially in the Breeders Cup!

My top pick from 2009, Quality Road, never got to strut his stuff as he was scratched at the gate. I probably won’t go with him again this year. I just don’t believe the son of Elusive Quality can go the 10 furlongs distance.  He is extremely classy, and if this race were a little shorter he would be very, very, tough. Who can forget his win in the Metropolitan Mile this year? It’s not out of the question for him to get a piece, but to me he likely isn’t a win candidate this time around.

Other candidates for the Breeders Cup Classic are First Dude, Fly Down, Espoir City, Haynesfield, Paddy O’ Prado, Musket Man, Crown of Thorns, Gitano Hernando, and Morning Line. The chances of a horse other than Zenyatta, Blame, Lookin at Lucky, or Quality Road winning the Classic are minute, but anything can happen as Wild Again proved in the first running of the race at huge odds.

Who do you like in the Breeders Cup Classic?

I saw an interview with Joe Bravo on TV last week. The interviewer asked Joe what his favorite types of races are. Jersey Joe, who has been interviewed  by this site, said that he relishes racing on the turf. Just as our friend Joe likes riding those races, I  enjoy handicapping them. The Virginia Derby is the perfect chance to do so. The Grade 2 event for three-year-olds is contested over the classic distance of 10 furlongs.

Paddy O’ Prado, runner-up in the Kentucky Derby, and winner of the Colonial Turf Cup, is the 7/5 morning line favorite. The son of El Prado is one of my favorite horses this year. Trainer Dale Romans is having an excellent year in 2010, and jockey Kent Desormeaux is as good as he has ever been. If Paddy O’ Prado loses it probably wont be for lack of training or jockey skill. I’ll go in another direction despite the obvious talent of this horse.

I like Krypton to take this race. The Kiaran McLaughlin trainee was last seen narrowly taking the Grade 3 Prince Hill Stakes at Belmont Park over a VERY good colt named Nordic Truce with new jockey Rajiv Maragh in the irons. Krypton has great pedigree being a son of the enormous Rock Hard Ten. His runners have taken to the turf very well.

Krypton has the right running style to win this race. He will sit off one or two horses and make a big move entering the stretch. The Florida bred runner worked a very sharp 1:00 2/5 B at the Saratoga training track on Sunday. I love his 7/2 price and I think he could even go off higher than that. All systems are go.

Other horses to consider are Stately Victor, and Interactif. Stately Victor won the Grade 1 Bluegrass Stakes earlier this year with a powerful closing kick. This will the first time he has been on the weeds since that victory. He broke his maiden over the turf at Saratoga last summer. Interactif won the Grade 3 With Anticipation and Grade 3 Bourbon before finishing a close third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf last year. His connections unsuccessfully attempted the Belmont Stakes last out. He should improve while returning to the grass.

Free picks are great, but if you want selections for all the top races this weekend please consider subscribing to our weekly or monthly picks package. You can learn more by clicking here.

Are you counting down the days yet? I know I am. There are 20 days until the Kentucky Derby. All of the major preps except for the Lexington Stakes have been conducted. Some horses will get injured and kept out of the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, but we pretty much know who is who at this point in time. Let’s take a look at my top contenders.

#1 Eskendereya- If this colt were a character from a movie he would be Clubber Lang from Rocky III. He reminds me of this quote from Mickey in that movie: “No, he ain’t just another fighter! This guy is a wrecking machine! And he’s hungry!”. My prediction for the Kentucky Derby? …..Pain! This son of Giant’s Causeway has a gun in a knife fight.

#2 Sidney’s Candy- I’ve said for a while that we don’t know how good this colt really is. Even after winning the Santa Anita Derby I STILL don’t think we have seen the bottom of him. I doubt he is as good as my #1 selection and his running style may compromise his chances. Can Talamo get him to rate? It might not matter if he is “just that good”.

#3 Lookin at Lucky- This colt’s name is quite an oxymoron. He has won 6 of 8 races, and if not for two horrible trips he might be undefeated. I love the way he still rallied to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby despite being pushed into the rail early in the race. He has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs. He is in great hands with Bob Baffert and big money rider Garrett Gomez.

#4 Paddy O’ Prado- I thought he was gone in the stretch of the Bluegrass Stakes until Stately Victor totally freaked and won the race. He is steadily improving and I just have a funny feeling that this colt is for real. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has a great record in the Kentucky Derby.

#5 Rule- The setup of the Florida Derby worked against him. I was nearly 100% sure a closer wouldn’t win that race. I loved his 2010 debut win when he took the Sam Davis Stakes. I’m not sure he is a candidate for top honors, but I can see him running a big race.

#6 Dublin- If he wasn’t in D Wayne Lukas’s barn I probably wouldn’t give him a shot. He had a perfect chance to win Arkansas Derby, but failed to go for the jugular late in the race. Monitor his training in the days leading up to the race.

#7 Awesome Act- He looked poised for a big run in the Wood Memorial turning for home, but when Leparoux unleashed him there wasn’t much there. However, I believe he lost a shoe at the start of the race. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give a good impression of himself on Kentucky Derby day.

#8 Noble’s Promise- His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby sure didn’t help his chances. Ken McPeek is still on the fence in terms of deciding to race him in the Run for the Roses.

#9 Super Saver- Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt always give a good account of himself. His running style will probably hurt his chances on the First Saturday in May.

#10 Ice Box- I’m wary of this colt because he won the Florida Derby closing into a tough pace. How will he do when the track doesn’t play in his favor?

So there you have it, my top ten contenders for the Kentucky Derby. This list is almost  certain to change between now and May 1. Kentucky Derby betting will be very interesting, exciting, and fun this year. Who do you like? Leave a comment and join the conversation!