by Robert Boswell

Europeans have had a strangle hold on the Breeders’ Cup Turf for many years. In fact, you have to go all the way back to 1997-98 to find consecutive North American winners. Just when Americans look to have a serious chance to break the most recent three year European streak, our top runners get sent to the bench or breeding shed.

Paddy O’Prado, fifth in last year’s Classic, was retired due to a sesamoid injury suffered during his 2011 debut win in the Grade 2 Dixie Stakes on Preakness day.

Acclamation, Pacific Classic winner, multiple graded stakes winner on turf and Eclipse Award candidate, was sidelined for the remainder of the year with a foot issue.

Cape Blanco, one of the top Europeans, was also retired. He swept the top east coast turf races; the Grade 1 Man O’ War, the Grade 1 Arlington Million and the Grade 1 Joe Hirsch Turf Classic, which will likely give him enough to be crowned Champion Turf Male.

With So You Think headed to the Classic, and undefeated superstar Frankel skipping the event, favoritism will likely go to four year old French filly Sarafina. She was seventh last out in the Group 1 Arc de Triomphe, but won three consecutive Group races prior to that. The 1 ½ mile distance is perfect for her, so look for a huge run from the talented lass.

Sea Moon, a lightly-raced three year old for Sir Michael Stoute, will take plenty of action as well. He was most recently a good third in the Group 1 Ladbrokes St. Leger at Doncaster and took a Group 2 prior to that. The colt lt is on the rise and could make his presence strongly felt late with a run from mid-pack.

Aidan O’Brien has two colts he hasn’t yet committed to the race, Treasure Beach and St. Nicholas Abbey, but has until pre-entries are taken this Monday to decide. Treasure Beach, a three year old by Galileo, already has a win here in the United States in the Grade 1 Secretariat and finished third behind an impressive Sarah Lynx in the Canadian International following a clunker in the Arc.

St. Nicholas Abbey, a Montjeu four year old has been in against some top level competition this year.  He ran fifth in the Arc most recently, third to Sarafina before that, another third behind last year’s Arc winner Workforce and Nathaniel who is skipping this race, and a Group 1 win in the Coronation Cup at 1 ½ miles ahead of Filly and Mare Turf favorite Midday.

Another Montjeu colt, Joshua Tree, is a possible starter following his runner-up finish in the Canadian International. He’s only raced three times since winning that same event in 2010, but Marco Botti won’t send him if he doesn’t think his form is spot on.

With the defections of Acclamation and Paddy O’Prado, the American hopes are with Winchester.  The Turf distance of 12 furlongs is his favorite, and he can win over any course condition. After winning the Grade 1 Sword Dancer at Saratoga, he ran fifth in the Joe Hirsch last time out.

Dean’s Kitten, though coming off a string of good showings, likes to settle for minor prizes. He ran a respectable third to Cape Blanco and Gio Ponti in the Arlington Million and second to Cape Blanco in a photo in the Joe Hirsch. One could argue that it was only that close because Cape Blanco came out with a fracture, but Dean’s Kitten still ran a great race.

Other possible starters include Teaks North, winner of the Grade 1 United Nations at Monmouth and fourth in the Sword Dancer, California-based Celtic New Year, who took the Grade 2 Del Mar Handicap, and Canadian shipper Hailstone, who has yet to find the winners’ circle this year but was competitive in several graded stakes at Woodbine.

The $3M Grade 1 Emirates Airlines Breeders’ Cup Turf will be contested at 1 ½ miles and is carded as the tenth of twelve races, just before the Classic, with a post time of 6:07 Eastern.  Race schedule and time will be finalized Oct 24^th.