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Hollywood Park $111,940 Pick 6 Carryover for Thursday 6/30/11

June 29, 2011 By Leave a Comment

By Chris Hernandez  @ Giving My Ten Cents

The last day in June brings along a $111,940 pick 6 carryover at Hollywood Park. A scant 50 horses make up the fields for the sequence, but that doesn’t mean this thing won’t pay well.

The races are evenly split among the cushion track and the turf, ranging from 6 to 10 furlongs. There are some possible short priced favorites in the sequence, but that means if you can beat them, the payoff will increase substantially. Let’s start this breakdown with the shortest race in the sequence.

 

Race 3 is on the turf going 6 furlongs. Favoritism figures to fall to #5 War Pilot. He scratched out of the Tsunami Slew Stakes last week to avoid a battle with Midnight Interlude. He was a vet scratch that day and now drops conspicuously in for a tag, especially with the Oceanside Stakes at Del Mar only 3 weeks away. Why risk him for a tag when he looks to have a bright future? He will be used, but not singled. The other on the ticket will be #6 Lime Rock Revenge. This gelded son of Limehouse was distanced by two highly thought of Baffert trainees in his last start. Freshened since that race, he starts on the turf for the first time today. His sire Limehouse is a 14% 1st time turf sire, and he is out of a Silver Hawk mare. He figures to be controlling speed and if he takes to the turf, he could be long gone at a big number. Others to consider for deeper pockets are #1 Diamond Geezah, first off the layoff/claim for Ted West; and #4 Dancing At Dark, who goes 1st off the claim for always dangerous trainer Jack Carava.

 

Race 4 is a 7 furlong maiden claiming $30k race for fillies and mares. These are always tough affairs to figure out, as the professional maidens meet up with class droppers and first time starters. #1 Portfolio steps up a level after closing from well out of it at this distance in her last start. Jockey Victor Espinoza retakes over the reins and hopes to roll from the back. #8 Santabarbrabendita takes the plunge from maiden special weight down to maiden claiming land for her second start. The barn manages to grab leading rider Joel Rosario, which is very interesting. #9 Running Isabella steps back up and stretching back out after a solid third last out. She adds blinkers for this start and with hustling jockey Martin Pedroza aboard may try to wire the field. Those are the three used for the ticket. Deeper tickets could consider adding professional maiden #7 Zees Chris, who has hit the board in 7 of his nine starts or #3 Woodman’s Lass, who runs at this extended sprint for the first time after some moderate success routing.

 

Race 5 is a $25k N2L on the grass going a mile. The horse who figures to be shortest favorite is in the whole sequence is #9 Hughesy. This O’Neill trainee finishes his descent to the bottom by landing here, and he looks tough. He has been facing much tougher and all he needs is any sort of pace to close into to find the winner’s circle. He will be a single on the ticket. In the unlikely event that the favorite fails to fire, #10 Bronster might be the one to take advantage. He ran the best race of his life last time out in his turf debut. He has some positional speed at the jock’s disposal with the chance to go gate-to-wire. Hughesy would have to really struggle for anyone to win, but Bronster would be the choice to take advantage.

 

Race 6 brings another heavy favorite in #6 American Lady. This Baffert trainee smoked home in her debut then finished second last out to solid filly in Rumor. She has three works since her last race and looks like a worthy favorite. But her inability to keep Rumor at bay after taking a clear lead is troubling enough to add another to the ticket. #3 Hopeful Union cuts back after finishing third in a route off a two month layoff. She figures to get a good trip sitting a few lengths off the pace and hopes to mow them down in the stretch. These two will be on the ticket.

 

Race 7 is a ten furlong race on the grass. The favorite figures to be #5 Mutually Benefit. This daughter of Dynaformer finished second in her first start against winners. She should appreciate the extra distance with her pedigree, but this is still uncharted territory for her at this distance. #4 Granite Girl won at this distance back in England last year. She finished 5th in a similar race earlier this year, but that was on short rest under slow fractions. A series of steady drills since offers hope that she can turn back to her win in her U.S debut back in January. These two will be on the ticket.

 

The nightcap brings together maiden special weights at 6 ½ furlongs. The three horses on the ticket is #1 Patriot’s Voyage (Baffert runner with speed on the cut-back), #10 Just Imagine (speed & third off the layoff for the O’Neill-Rosario connection) and #2 Matlow (Stalker who has shown the ability to pass and has been working well).

 

The ticket: (5,6) – (1,8,9) – (9) – (3,6) – (4,5) – (1,2,10) = $144

 

Good luck folks!

 

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Handicapping the $1.13 million carryover Belmont Park Pick 6 for 6/15/2011

June 14, 2011 By 2 Comments

Belmont Stakes day was incredibly chaotic. Long shot winners Mission Approved and Ruler on Ice along with the filly C.S. Silk ensured that no one would hit the Pick 6 wager. Wednesday’s card will feature a $1,130,718 carryover for the Pick 6. Let’s take a look at the sequence and the ticket I will be playing!

Race 4 (Maiden Special Weight)

This 10 furlong turf maiden race isn’t so easy, but given the difficulty of the other events I’m going to single. The favored Clear Attempt (9/5) has all the speed and we know he can get the distance. Trainer Bill Mott has him well spotted. Jockey Jose Lezcano rides for big time owners Pam and Marty Wygod. I’ll know my fate early with this pick.

Race 5 (Claiming)

Grace and Courage (4-1) made a good showing of herself in the 2011 debut to finish third  by 3/4 of a length at a similar condition. I’ll also include the daughter of Cape Cross, Fleeting Glance (7/2). She finished 3/4 of a length behind Grace and Courage in fourth last out. If we can make it to the third leg I’m going to be feeling great about my chances of cashing 6 of 6.

Race 6  (Allowance)

This is the toughest leg of the sequence and the race in which I will use the most horses. My top pick, Starlantic (5-1), fired a four furlong move in :47 H which ranked first of 72 works on June 5. He exits two consecutive third place finishes on the inner dirt at Aqueduct. I’m thinking he will improve at Belmont. I’ll also use Hysterical Cat (20-1), Decision Point (8-1), Jungle Rain (7-2), Able Bellamy (4-1), Prince of Danger (6-1) and Our Brave Warrior (5-1).

Race 7 (Claiming)

I’m going to make an aggressive pick here. Chalk Player (8-1) was the victor last out in non-winners of 2 lifetime races (N2L) company going 8.5 furlongs. She turns back to a mile here after trainer Chris Englehart claimed the lass. Englehart is 35% first off the claim with a sample size of 45 races. Big time rider David Cohen gets the mount. She’s got a huge shot, folks. I’ll also include Love Shack (6-1), Ms Stiletto (4-1) and Ba Ba’s Bunch (6-1).

Race 8 (Claiming)

I’m two deep in this N2L event. My top choice will be the Steve Asmussen trained and Ramon Dominguez ridden son of Tapit, Running Tap (5-1). Claimed last out for $25k, Asmussen has opted to run him back at the same level. He is 22% first off the claim. Throw in the fact that this one makes his turf debut and I really like his chances. Sons of Tapit really love the weeds. I’m also using Linda Rice’s gelding, D J’s Revenge (7-2). He ran well in his first turf start last out and should be able to strike turning for home.

Race 9 (Maiden Claiming)

I am going to single R Clever Cat (8-5) to end the Pick 6 sequence. She makes a big class drop from a maiden special weight at Santa Anita to maiden claiming here at Belmont. While the move is a bit suspect, it appears she is the only one in the race that has a pulse. If she runs her last race she wins this thing by a few lengths.

So, my ticket looks like this (revised for scratches):

  • Race 4: 7
  • Race 5: 2,8
  • Race 6: 1,3,5,6,7,9,10
  • Race 7: 2,7,8,10
  • Race 8: 8
  • Race 9: 1

The total cost of the play is $224, but the reward could easily be 100x that. I encourage you to play along as opportunities like this don’t arise often. If you’re looking for a place to bet the races, check out Twin Spires. Their $100 sign up bonus goes a long way toward a nice Pick 6 ticket!

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Santa Anita Pick 6 (MLK Day)

January 17, 2011 By 5 Comments

The Pick 6 is a wager I haven’t been able to reel in. It’s akin to Moby Dick and I’m feeling quite like the insane Captain Ahab trying to hunt this whale of a wager. Picking 6 winners in a row is the hardest thing that can be asked of us as handicappers. Doing so would be the ultimate achievement. I’m making it my goal to do so before the end of the Santa Anita meet. I will catalog my epic adventure so be sure to check back regularly to see my progress. January 7 will be the first day of my quest.

Race 4: I’m going with #4 Stevie’s Afleet and #7 Beautiful American in this $32k claiming turf route. Beautiful American knows how to win races as proved by winning 6 races in a 9 race span last year. The Quiet American filly gets Gomez back after a 5th place finish on the main track last out. Stevie’s Afleet tries the turf for the second time. I love her 365 distance/surface Tomlinson Rating. She moves up in class after winning for $25k last out.

Race 5: This is a tough race. Instead of going deep I will try to single. This sequence is too tough for me to go deep this early on. #2 Los Bomberos looks really tough for John Sadler. The ace trainer bred the filly and owns the mare. Look for him to show speed after a :59 H gate drill 6 days ago. Talamo gets the ride for this barn that has 17% first out winners.

Race 6: Joel Rosario and Carla Gaines hook up on the favored #1 No Stadium for this down the hill turf race. Turning back in distance should help him. #4 Fantando ships in from Turf Paradise for 20% trainer Robertino Diodoro. His pedigree screams turf. I have no problems using him despite shipping from TuP. He broke his maiden at Hollywood and Chantal Sutherland gets the call. I’m also taking #6 Big Bad Boo, #7 Marcy’s Woods and #8 Tale of the Bat.

Race 7: The San Pedro Stakes could be the toughest  race in the Pick 6 at Santa Anita. I’m two deep with #1 Industry Leader and #3 Sinai. The latter broke his maiden first out and earned a 90 BSF for Bob Baffert and Rafael Bejarano. Baffert is doing incredible this meet winning 47% of his races. Industry Leader is a tough horse that had a troubled trip in the CashCall Futurity last out. He should be able to lay off the speed and pounce. In a perfect world I’d also use the 2, 4 and 5, but I must keep the cost of my ticket down.

Race 8: The Grade 2 San Marcos Stakes is an easy single. Breeders Cup Turf runner up #11 Champ Pegasus is making his first start back here. He is 2 for 2 at the distance and has a win and a second place finish over this course. If he is ready to fire I expect him to be much, much the best at 5-2.

Race 9: I’d like to single 8-5 shot #9 Syllabus, but I find the drop in class to be suspect. He ran tremendously last out in starter allowance company to be third while earning a 90 BSF. Why are they dropping him to claiming $12,500N2L? If he runs his race he will win this for fun, but I’ll also use #7 Bell Zone as an insurance policy. He was second by a nose at this condition last out. Patrick Valenzuela retains the mount

I’m fairly confident in this ticket. Hopefully it can get there for a big score. Best of luck if you decide to play along!

  • Race 4: 4,7
  • Race 5: 2
  • Race 6: 1,4,6,7,8
  • Race 7: 1,3
  • Race 8: 11
  • Race 9: 7,9
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Bettor Friendly Tracks; where to get the most bang for your buck!

January 4, 2011 By 2 Comments

*Please note that this post is just over a year old. While most of the information is still accurate, takeout rates have risen in California.*

Horse bettors are presented with a million different variables on any given day. There are almost always at least 10 tracks to bet at any given moment. There are a minimum of 11 “traditional” wagers that can be made. These include Win, Place, Show, Exacta, Quinella, Trifecta, Superfecta, Daily Double, Pick 3, Pick 4, and the Pick 6. Many circumstances are beyond the bettor’s control. Tracks can come up sloppy. Turf courses can be rated good or soft. Jockeys can fall off their mount. These things are uncontrollable, but we as bettors are able to control certain variables such as takeout. Will I place my wagers at the track with 25% exacta takeout, or the one with 18.5% takeout? Will I give my business to the track that has large and competitive fields, or the track that has small fields with many favorites finding the winners circle?

There are many factors to consider when deciding which track offers the best bang for the buck. The number one factor is size and competitiveness of the fields. If favorites are winning a disproportionate amount of races it will be hard to make money. If the majority of races at a track have only 6-8 horses or even less then exotics will pay little to nothing unless a huge long shot is able to win and the favorite runs out of the money. The wagering menu is also an important factor. Dime superfectas offer great value in fields of 10 horses or more. The same can be said for the 50-cent trifecta. Rolling Pick 3’s and the Pick 4 and 6 wagers offer great value for those who are able to string together several winners in a row. Takeouts must also be taken into consideration when making your decision. Whether you realize it or not, YOU have a choice when it comes to where you will bet your hard earned money. Let’s take a look at the top five bettor friendly tracks in the United States along with some honorable mentions.

#1 Churchill Downs (Louisville, Kentucky)- It was a tough decision, but the storied Churchill Downs ranks as the most bettor friendly racetrack in the entire United States. Whether it’s the beautiful scenery behind the legendary twin spires, low takeouts, or full fields, gamblers cannot go wrong with Churchill Downs. Home to the Kentucky Derby, this track is beloved by many fans. The Run for the Roses is one of the best betting races you will find, but there is much more to Churchill Downs than just a single race. One of the things I love best about Churchill Downs is the “real dirt”. While many gamblers have no problem with synthetic tracks, I find them harder to handicap and I know a lot of people out there would agree with me. Regular dirt races are much easier to handicap, and thus easier for gamblers to make money. The second thing I love about Churchill Downs is the diversity in race types. Churchill Downs is one of the only tracks I can think of where you might see low level claimers and Grade 1 winners compete on the same day on a regular basis.

The takeouts at Churchill Downs are very reasonable. The track keeps 16% of the Win-Place-Show pools, and 19% of all exotic pools. The amount of money in the pools is among the highest in the nation due to Churchill Downs popularity and strong racing. Their wager menu is very strong. They offer 50 cent Trifectas, Pick 3’s, and Pick 4’s. They also have the very popular dime superfecta wager. These wagers shouldn’t be underestimated. They allow bettors to stretch their bankroll and offer more bang for your buck. Average field size at Churchill Downs is 8.28 according to information provided by the Horseplayers Association of North America. I also like Churchill Downs because of their very useful advanced deposit wagering service (www.twinspires.com). Wagering online is very convenient and has many benefits, but we will save that discussion for another time. Churchill Downs has set the bar for other tracks when it comes to treating the bettor well.

#2 Keeneland (Lexington, Kentucky)- While the Kentucky racing circuit certainly has problems that it needs to address, the top two tracks when it comes to wagering lie in the Bluegrass State. Keeneland is one of the premier meets in horse racing. The beautiful location combined with the highest quality of racing makes Keeneland a must visit for all horse racing fans. The feature race in the spring is the Bluegrass Stakes, which has produced countless Kentucky Derby winners. It is just one of many excellent races at Keeneland. The takeout rate of 16% for Win-Place-Show wagers and 19% on exotic wagers is very reasonable. The takeout rates in Kentucky are among the best in the entire nation. Keeneland is similar to Churchill Downs in many ways. Both have top notch racing and they share the same takeout rates. They even offer most of the same wagers. The place where they part the most is in their racing surfaces. Keeneland has Polytrack while Churchill Downs still has traditional dirt.

Many bettors often complain about the trickiness of handicapping Keeneland due to its Polytrack surface. While it can be difficult at times, it isn’t impossible to figure out. For those that are baffled by the Polytrack, Keeneland offers a complete database of information about the Polytrack. It is available for free on their website and is titled “PolyCapping”.  There is an abundance of valuable information available at www.keeneland.com, and it is all free.  Other resources available online are the Winners Book, and Clocker’s Comments. The Winners Book contains information about every horse that won in the previous meet. Some of the information included is the winning jockey, post time odds, morning line odds, and much more. Clockers Comments is one of the most valuable resources you will find anywhere. The clocker at Keeneland makes notes for every horse that works there. This information is invaluable, particularly when handicapping maiden races with first time starters. The final thing I like about Keeneland is their excellent contests. They have handicapping contests quite frequently both on site and online. I recommend any handicapper that wants a challenge to give these contests a try. Keeneland and Churchill are neck and neck for first and second. You can’t go wrong with either track. Keeneland is a credit to the entire racing industry.

#3 Oaklawn Park (Hot Springs, Arkansas)- While Keeneland and Churchill Downs clearly set the standard for doing right by the bettor, Oaklawn Park isn’t too far behind. The facilities at Oaklawn are top of the line and will put a smile on even the most well traveled track enthusiast. The feature race at Oaklawn is the Arkansas Derby. It is a great betting race and has presented us with many future great horses such as Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, and Curlin just to name a few. Oaklawn is also home to the Apple Blossom, a Grade 1 race won by potential Horse of the Year Zenyatta in 2008. The takeout rates at Oaklawn are solid at 19% for Win-Place-Show and 21% for exotic wagers. The average field size is 9.04 according to data gathered by the Horseplayers Association of North America. This is a solid number and ranks Oaklawn in the top tier of all tracks for that statistic. The pool sizes are strong and average over $100k per race.

Oaklawn offers both the 50 cent trifecta and dime superfecta wagers. These wagers help bettors to obtain value, especially when making bets on races that have large fields. The track has benefited from increased purses thanks to an onsite casino. Increasing the purses subsequently lead to better horses racing at this track. Gamblers are able to join the Oaklawn Park Winner’s Circle Player’s Club. Members are rewarded for wagering at Oaklawn and can use the points they earn to buy things like a Daily Racing Form, food, or cash. Oaklawn has some of the finest race calling in the entire country thanks to track announcer Terry Wallace. He has delivered race calls for 36 years and hasn’t missed a single race at Oaklawn since 1975. His calls are some of the best around, and he has called 19,621 races at Oaklawn without missing a beat. While Oaklawn is a top notch track there are a few things I would like to see them improve upon. Their website is lacking and doesn’t even begin to come close to Keeneland. Other than that and a few other small details they are doing a wonderful job. There is a reason they call Oaklawn Park the Saratoga of the South; they treat the horseman and the bettor very well. Owner Charles Cella has always maintained that Oaklawn is about the horse, and he is making good on that promise.

#4 Santa Anita Park (Arcadia, California)- There is a reason that Santa Anita has hosted the last two Breeders Cup World Championships. This track is one of the finest in the entire world. Aptly named “The Great Race Place”, Santa Anita is home to the “Big Cap”, better known as the Santa Anita Handicap, and the Santa Anita Derby. Both are Grade 1 events that attract some of the finest horses in their divisions. This track has some of the best takeout ratings around. Their Win-Place-Show takeout is just 15.43%, ranking them in the top five of all tracks in North America for that category. The exotic takeout is a bit higher than some at 20.68%, but is still more than reasonable. The average field size is about average at 8.53 horses per race. Santa Anita offers the dime superfecta wager, but at this point in time does not offer 50 cent trifectas or 50 cent Pick 4’s. That is something I would like to see change in the near future.

One of my favorite reasons to bet Santa Anita is the $2 minimum Pick 6 wager. It isn’t uncommon for the wager to pay in excess of $100,000. If you are able to string together six winners in a row, you will be handsomely rewarded. The difficulty of the wager, combined with the massive amounts of money in the pool allows this to happen. The Super High 5 wager offered at Santa Anita represents another chance for a huge score. To a hit a Super High 5 the bettor must pick the first five finishers in a given race. It’s hard enough to hit a trifecta these days, so hitting the High 5 will almost always result in a huge pay day. Santa Anita’s website has Pick 6 carryover alerts for all tracks on the southern California circuit. Santa Anita is the perfect destination for the handicapper seeking the score of a lifetime.

#5 Gulfstream Park (Hallandale, Florida)- Home to the SunShine Millions, Florida Derby, and Donn Handicap, Gulfstream Park is a top notch track that bettors love. Due in large part to the excellent weather, this track has plenty of great horses to bet on when it runs from January to April. Winners of the Donn Handicap can often be found in the Dubai World Cup later in the year, and the same can be said for the Florida Derby and the Kentucky Derby. Gulfstream has excellent field size, averaging 9.07 horses per race according to the Horseplayers Association of North America. The takeouts for Win-Place-Show are acceptable at 17%. The trifecta and superfecta takeouts are too high at 25%. The Pick 6 takeout is 15%, and all other wagers are 20%.

I really like the takeout numbers for Gulfstream, minus the trifecta and superfectas. Those large numbers can really take a bite out of your payoffs. Gulfstream currently accepts the Dime Superfecta and 50 cent Pick 4 wagers. These wagers offer good value, but the excessive superfecta takeout means I’d rather play that wager at another track. The Good Luck Players Club is a nice thing for onsite bettors. It allows customers to accrue points for every wager they make, and the points can be spent on various items. Overall I was disappointed with the usefulness of their website. Keeneland clearly sets the standard in this area, and most racks have a lot of catching up to do. On the whole, Gulfstream is a good track to wager on, but it has some work to do in order to catch up to the top four.

Honorable Mentions:

Del Mar- I love this track, and I could find little wrong with it. However, I felt it was just a bit lower than Santa Anita in terms of quality. Where the turf meets the surf, Del Mar is one of the best tracks in the country and bettors can’t go wrong with this one.

Saratoga- The Spa is a great track for win bettors, but the excessive trifecta, superfecta, Pick 3 and Pick 4 takeouts caused me to leave them out of the top five. The pools always have tons of money in them, and the quality of racing is almost unparalleled. If you’re going to bet in New York, then Saratoga is the place to do so.

Hoosier Park- This track has great field size and low takeouts. However the pools are small in comparison to the big boys, and I believe in betting into larger pools. This typically results in larger payouts. Hoosier should be the top pick for anyone seeking to bet on a smaller track.

Evangeline Downs- In my experience this track is a graveyard for favorites. Evangeline often has very large fields over 10 horses and it’s never a surprise to see a huge long shot find the winners circle. If you like making win bets on horses at big odds then look no further than Evangeline Downs.

Overall it is clear that Kentucky comes out in front when it comes to giving bettors the best bang for their buck. Churchill Downs and Keeneland are far ahead of all of their competition overall. Santa Anita is clearly the place to be if you are looking for a life-changing score. Oaklawn and Gulfstream are both excellent meets that cater to players that like traditional dirt racing and excellent fields. While takeout, field size and field quality are very important I advise you to not lose sight of the reason you are wagering. I think I can speak for the majority of horseplayers when I say we bet the horses because it is something that we love dearly. Stay within your comfort zone and remember the most important rule; have fun.

*I would like to give a special thanks to HANA (Horseplayers Association of North America) for the excellent work that they do and for gathering a large portion of information about the tracks and making it available on their website. If you would like to access their track information chart that includes takeout rates and much more visit: http://www.horseplayersassociation.org/hanatrackratingsbyoverallscore.html.

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Saratoga Pick 6 Play ($443,274 carryover)

August 31, 2010 By Leave a Comment

The Pick 6 is my favorite wager. I rarely play it, but when I do it seems like I usually get close to the prize. I’ve had 5 of 6 many times, but at my young age of 20 I’ve yet to successfully hit the entire sequence. I have been alive in the 6th race 3 times only to fall short. I hope that doesn’t happen tomorrow as I will be making a big play. Let’s breakdown the Pick 6 at Saratoga on September 1, 2010!

Race 5: I’m not going to over think this race. I’m using #1 Arrr Pirates Booty (3-1) and #4 Stroke (2-1). The Linda Rice barn has been nearly unstoppable so I expect the favorite to take top honors here.

Race 6: I’m using #1 Talk To Nick (4-1) and #6 Dance Floor Maniac (4-1). I like the speed that Talk To Nick is likely to flash from the rail. He faded last out, but I think he could go from flag fall to thats all turning back in distance for trainer Rudy Rodriguez. Dance Floor Maniac is super consistent and will get first jump on Talk To Nick. I feel pretty confident I will get through this leg with just these two, but I wouldn’t mind having #2 Devilish Due.

Race 7:  I’m not wild about this race. I could see myself going down here. My horses are #5 Power Dreams (6-1) and #6 Precious Metal (7/2). The latter is a fast working first time starter and the former picked up the pieces in a maiden claimer to be third last out. Stretching out on the turf there is no telling what might happen. The rail horse is favored for Linda Rice, but I don’t like babies that haven’t worked five furlongs yet.

Race 8: This is a tough race, but I feel confident with Avanta (8-1), Pleine Forme (5-1), and Believe In A.P. (8-1). All three hold an excellent hand. Avanta has the benefit of jockey Johnny Velazquez and trainer Todd Pletcher. I like her turf pedigree and she will be tough while throwing the blinkers on after a stalking victory against maiden claiming company in which Pletcher swiped her away from Bill Mott. Pleine Forme picks up Ramon Dominguez who seemingly could have had the mount on Arch Support who is lower odds. Pleine Forme is trained by turf expert Graham motion. She scored a first out victory over the Poly Track at Presque Isle. Believe In A.P. put in a good effort last out for Jay Em Ess and Dick Dutrow finishing a close third despite closing into slow fractions. Julien Leparoux will ride and he is always an asset on the turf.

Race 9:  I’m going out on a limb by singling Sumfun (6-1). From five starts at the distance he has won three times and finished second and third. He won an allowance at Lone Star earlier this year before finishing second to the grizzled veteran Atticus Kristy at Churchill Downs. The son of Menifee was claimed last out by Gary Diprima who  saddles 19% winners first after the claim. He’s in with a big shot, but I wouldn’t mind having Matt’s A Giant (6-1) and Sly (4-1).

Race 10: He isn’t what he used to be, but I’m hoping that The Roundhouse (4-1) can get me home in the final leg of the Pick 6.  He is making a slight class drop after finishing fourth beaten three lengths in his last start. I’m hoping he can find some of the run that allowed him to win an optional claiming even at Aqueduct earlier this year. I’m also using French Transition (12-1). The gelding son was a good second on the turf at this level two starts back.

The total cost of my ticket is $96. Win or lose, I’ll be on the edge of my seat the whole way cheering my horses on. Who do YOU like?

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Churchill Downs Carryover Galore: $947,641 Pick 6 & $147,055 Super High Five

May 4, 2010 By Leave a Comment

I feel sorry for the guy who was alive to Evening Jewel in the Kentucky Oaks for the Pick 6 on Friday. The poor guy got beat in the last jump by Blind Luck and the Pick 6 carried to Kentucky Derby day. Nobody hit it that day either.

The carryover now stands at $947, 641 for Thursday, May 6. That’s a huge chunk of change and the pool is likely to go over $2.5 million. The card is certainly tough. It consists of races 5-10 and will begin at 2:53. The Super High Five wager also carried for $147,055.

Race 5: The first leg of the Pick 6 is a field of 9 in a $10k claimer for three-year-olds and up at the distance of one mile. Some of the entrants include UD Ghetto and Sir Jock. The latter will be piloted by Calvin Borel. The former ran in the Breeders Cup Juvenile once upon a time, but has clearly seen better days. I haven’t seen PPs, but if my memory is any good then I believe Sir Jock is a nice little runner. Calvin will have him in a spot with a chance to win.

Race 6: This race is a crap shoot. I don’t like any of them. The  race is a  $15k claiming event for three-year-olds and up over 1 1/16 miles.

Race 7: This is a maiden claiming event on the turf for three-year-olds and upward. Miss Nepal, Quiet by Seven, Love That Kitten, and Bharat all look to be in with a shot. I like Miss Nepal and Love That Kitten the best. The latter is a first timer from Kitten’s Joy. His progeny LOVE the turf. Trainer Wes Ward is tough first out. Miss Nepal is worth a look on form and pedigree. The filly is a daughter of Maria’s Mon. Her broodmare sire is Dynaformer. That screams turf and this will be her first try on the weeds.

Race 8:This race is a $5k claiming event for fillies and mares 3 and up. The distance is six furlongs. Karacuda looks nice with Julien Leparoux up.

Race 9: The fifth leg is a 7 furlong allowance for fillies and mares over the age of 3. Bob Baffert’s Kimmyv is doing well and should be considered.

Race 10: The final leg of the Pick 6 is a $10k maiden claiming event. The field is full at 12. John McKee’s Grand Performer will be throwing on the blinkers. This is also the Super High Five race. With a field of 12 and the carryover it is guaranteed to pay handsomely.

So there you have it! The Pick 6 is one of the best wagers in racing and I highly encourage you to give it a shot. You may be able to pay your mortgage off if you hit it. Good luck!

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