May 22, 2012

2012 Preakness Stakes preview, picks & analysis

2012 Preakness Stakes

2012 Preakness Stakes

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The 2012 Preakness Stakes from Pimlico Race Course is a grudge match of sorts. Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another will seek to stay on a roll as he tries to advance to the Belmont Stakes with a shot at wearing the seemingly unattainable Triple Crown. Meanwhile, Bodemeister, who tired late to be second after setting a furious pace at Churchill Downs, will try to turn the tables on I’ll Have Another. Neither horse is my selection to win.

Tiger Walk  (Tale of the Cat x Majestic Trail by Kris S.) 30-1: This one was last seen passing tired horses in the stretch of the Grade 1 Wood Memorial to be fourth. Since then he has posted a sharp  four furlong move in :47 3/5 B over this track. Trainer Ignacio Correas will add blinkers for the first time as Kent Desormeaux gets the call to ride. The Hall of Fame rider won this race in 1998 with Real Quiet and 2008 with Big Brown, both of whom were much more horse than this one. Will need something strange to happen for him to win.

Teeth of the Dog (Bluegrass Cat x Deputy Reality by Deputy Minister) 15-1: I will catch a lot of heat for this statement, but he could be Michael Matz best three-year-old. The inexperienced horse rallied to be third at 53-1 in the Wood Memorial when last seen and before that was a maiden winner at Gulfstream. His routing ability is confirmed and his speed figures have improved with every race. This event figures to have soft fractions, so it is imperative that jockey Joe Bravo keeps him near the front. Clearly, this one is the best of the long shot contingent and the bay colt possesses a true chance of becoming the next Preakness winner.

Pretension (Bluegrass Cat x Main Streetin’ by Street Cry) 30-1: Won by a neck in the Canonero II Stakes against four other rivals over this track last out. He isn’t fast enough to win the Preakness, but he does have enough early zip to impact the pace. Backers of other horses will have to hope that Javier Santiago sends him to the front early on to ensure an honest pace. Christopher Grove is the trainer.

Zetterholm (Silver Train x Holy Wish by Lord at War) 30-1: NY-bred turned into a different animal after being sent to the barn of Rick Dutrow (big surprise, right?). His last time racing was a state-bred win where he easily cruised past the favorite in the stretch. This is an ambitious spot for him and he figures to have a lot to do in the stretch. Junior Alvarado retains the mount.

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Went The Day Well (Proud Citizen x Tiz Maie by Tiznow) 6-1: Graham Motion trainee was finishing best of all in the Grade 1 Kentucky Derby after what could have been the worst trip in the race. With another jump he would have been third and a better set up would have had him in a photo with I’ll Have Another. The blinkers have clearly made him a better horse. John Velazquez would be wise to keep him closer to the front. If he can work out a trip similar to the one he had in the Grade 3 Spiral Stakes, then Team Valor International could have their first Preakness Stakes winner. In fact, we will call for him to pull the upset.

Creative Cause (Giant’s Causeway x Dream of Summer by Siberian Summer) 6-1: He didn’t have much of an excuse while finishing fifth in the Kentucky Derby. It was a sharp enough effort to remove my doubts about his progression. It wouldn’t surprise me to see him produce a better effort here, but I still wouldn’t count on it. Trainer Mike Harrington might want to consider throwing the blinkers back on. He seems to be a better horse with them.

Bodemeister (Empire Maker x Untouched Talent by Storm Cat) 8-5: It was surprising to see him stay on so well after setting a wicked fast pace in the Kentucky Derby. Try not to get antsy about playing him at such a short number though. His race wasn’t as good as it looked when you consider how fast the track was playing. Groupie Doll smashed a track record in the Humana Distaff and the fractions were lightning quick in almost every race.

Despite that, the race figures to set up perfectly for him. His chances are based on how much he’s got left in the tank. Essentially, you must ask yourself how much the Kentucky Derby took out of him. I’m not saying he doesn’t have a good shot at winning, because he does, but I cant bet him when I consider the circumstances. Handicapping aside, we wish the best of luck to our friends at Zayat Stables who own this bay colt. Bob Baffert trains and Mike Smith keeps the mount.

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Daddy Nose Best (Scat Daddy x Follow Your Bliss by Thunder Gulch) 12-1: This guy was the buzz horse going into the Kentucky Derby, but suffered from a poor trip under Garrett Gomez while finishing 10th. Regular rider Julien Leparoux will get the mount back for trainer Steve Asmussen. His closing style doesn’t fit this track well and he figures to be left with too much to do. Add him to the stable mail and bet him when he gets back on turf or synthetic.

I’ll Have Another (Flower Alley x Arch’s Gal Edith by Arch) 5-2: The Kentucky Derby winner had a very good trip and benefited from a fast pace at Churchill Downs. However, you cant criticize him for winning the race, no matter how he did it. I love the gameness he exhibits and he should be ready to run a big race on two weeks rest given the light campaign he has had leading up to the Preakness. Mario Gutierrez has enough tactical speed to keep Bodemeister honest and it is important that he does so.

Historically, Kentucky Derby winners are very tough to handle in the Preakness Stakes. However, only four of the last 10 Derby winners have won the Preakness. Of the other six Derby winners three were second, one was third, one was off the board and the ill-fated Barbaro did not finish. In the end, I’ll Have Another has the stuff to win this race and will likely run a career best race. He deserves to be the favorite and is the horse to beat. Best of luck to trainer Doug O’Neill as he attempts to grab the second jewel of the Triple Crown.

Optimizer (English Channel x Indy Pick by AP Indy) 30-1: Pretty much just ran around the track at Churchill Downs in the Kentucky Derby to finish 11th. D Wayne Lukas will mix things up here by giving the mount to Corey Nakatani. That likely wont be enough to do the trick for this bay colt that is still eligible for a non-winners of two lifetime race.

Cozetti (Cozzene x Lemon Drop Cello by Lemon Drop Kid) 30-1: Rallied well to be fourth in the Grade 1 Arkansas Derby last out. His only win was over a wet main track against six other foes at Churchill Downs. It’s hard to see him impacting this race. Jose Lezcano will ride for Dale Romans.

My top selection to win the Preakness Stakes is Went The Day Well (6-1). He had a horrid trip in the Derby and was finishing best of all towards the finish. John Velazquez has enough early speed to stay within striking range and will be on a horse that figures to run the best race of his life.

Not far behind my selection is Kentucky Derby winner I’ll Have Another (5-2). It appears that he is also sitting on the best race of his career. A light campaign leading up to his last victory will serve him well as he tries to become the first Triple Crown winner since Affirmed in 1978.

While Bodemeister has strong merits, he also has question marks. At what figures to be a very short price he is a clear play against.

  • Preakness Exacta: 2,5,9 BOX
  • Preakness Trifecta: 5,9 with 2,5,7,9 with 1,2,5,7,9
  • Preakness Superfecta: 5,9 with 5,9 with 1,2,6,7 with ALL

Bet the Preakness Stakes with TVG, where new players get $50 for each of their three months!

Astrology could be a live long shot for the Preakness Stakes

Stonestreet Thoroughbred’s colt Astrology is ready to rock and roll for the Preakness Stakes after stretching his legs in a four furlong move which was clocked in :51.60 on Monday.

Regular visitors to this site know that I was high on his chances to make the Kentucky Derby and he was on my Kentucky Derby Contenders page for much of the winter before it became apparent that he wouldn’t make the race.

Astrology made his 2011 debut in the Sunland Derby where he was fairly close to a torrid pace and ended second behind Twice The Appeal. Not a bad effort considering he had been off so long and was tackling the distance of 9 furlongs for the first time.

After the Sunland Derby trainer Steve Asmussen sent the colt to Aqueduct for his next start in the Jerome Handicap where he looked done at the top of the stretch, but still finished second. The winner, Adios Charlie, is a very serious racehorse that came back to run a desperately close second in the Peter Pan Stakes. To me, it showed heart for Astrology to keep coming in the Jerome after it looked like he was defeated. He did it over a wet track too which is something he might encounter in the Preakness.

I love Astrology’s breeding. He is a son of A.P out of the Quiet American mare Quiet Eclipse. Recognize that cross? You should. It is the same one that 2006 Preakness Stakes and Travers Stakes winner Bernardini is bred on.

Not that looks mean much, but Astrology is one of the best looking colts of this crop that I can remember seeing. He is a strong colt and a good mover. He’s got heart as we saw Jerome and he showed last year he is plenty good enough to run with the big boys by finishing second in the Kentucky Jockey Club and winning the Iroquois Stakes.

Making his third start of the year in the Preakness means Astrology is ready to run the race of his life. He will need to do s0 to win. We know he can get the distance and we know he is classy enough. The connections are top notch and all systems are go. Look for Astrology to give them hell in the Preakness.

Click the “Buy Now” button the side of this page to get our official picks for the race.

 

Bouncing back from a bad Kentucky Derby betting day for the Preakness Stakes

This post is brought to you by guest author Chris Hernandez from Giving My Ten Cents.

“Animal Who?” I said this as Animal Kingdom crossed to line to win this year’s Kentucky Derby. I was nowhere close to finding a winner in the race, nor was I close in any of the exotics. With the Preakness Stakes this weekend, the need to reassess what went wrong is key to moving on from the race. Here are a few of the things I am doing to help myself reset to help put the Derby behind me, and hopefully they can work for you when you need to put a race in the rear view mirror.

Figure out what went wrong: Many handicappers move on from a race they were wrong about without figuring out why, yet this is an important thing to do to prevent yourself from making the same mistakes over and over in the future. Personally, I tossed the winner altogether because I figured he would not run well on dirt. I ignored the strong appearance he was making in the morning at Churchill Downs and the fact that his sire had been throwing dirt runners from other seemingly “turfy” pedigrees, such as multiple graded stakes winner on dirt Always a Princess, who’s dam was a turf horse through and through. This reminded me not to just automatically toss a horse on any surface they have never run on before without checking others from the sire/dam. For you, this could be as simple as making sure you have a good reason for not using a horse on a pick 4 “just because”.

The Derby is just one race: Now that the Derby is over, just treat it as another race. The build-up for it is massive, but once it is over, there is an empty spot in many of us. To fill that void, just remember that is only one race, and there is another race coming up soon to play on. Don’t overvalue the efforts of those coming out of the Derby just because they are coming out of it. Just because Dialed In came home sub :48 for the final half still doesn’t excuse the fact that he finished 8th. Conversely, just becase Animal Kingdom romped home doesn’t mean he is suddenly leaps and bounds above the rest of this group. Treat the Derby as just another race, nothing more

The most important thing to remember is…

FORGET EVERYTHING! Forget the fact that you did badly on whatever race you were completely wrong about and move on. That may sound contradictory to the first bit of advice I suggested, but one can learn from a mistake, then let the mistake go. If you let the race stay with you on and on, it will affect every part of your handicapping, especially when one of the runners you were wrong about is running in the race. I’ll need to let go of the Derby by the time I take a look at the Preakness PPs, otherwise my chances to cash are surely doomed.

So there is some advice on letting a poor job of handicapping go by the wayside. Hopefully it will get you passed a rough spot on the road to a big score.

**Click the “Buy Now” button below to get our Preakness Picks**

Preakness Stakes Full Card Picks ($15)

Also, consider checking out BetFirms picks.

2011 Preakness betting picks

We told you last year we had your back in the Preakness Stakes and we came through. Lookin At Lucky took the race as our top selection. Can we do it in in 2011? You better believe we can.

Take a look at the success we have had leading up to the Preakness:

Peter Pan Stakes: Alternation ($9.40)

Southwest Stakes: Archarcharch ($31)

Florida Derby: Dialed In ($7.80)

Arkansas Derby: Archarcharch ($52.40)

Fountain of Youth Stakes: Soldat ($4.80 with $13.80 Exacta COLD)

We do very well with top class horses like those that will be racing at Pimlico. What better example than when we picked 5 winners in a row at Saratoga last year? The $2 parlay of those 5 races was worth $883. During that same meet we singled Blame in the Whitney to key a $2,564 Pick 4. We plan on doing just as well in the Preakness Stakes!

Among the races we will be handicapping for the Preakness Stakes weekend include the following.

  • Preakness Stakes
  • Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
  • McKay Turf Sprint
  • Dixie Stakes
  • Schaefer Stakes
  • Maryland Sprint
  • Gallorette Stakes
  • Chick Lang Stakes

For just $15 you can get our full card selections for the Preakness Stakes at Pimlico along with select stakes races including the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes on the preceding Friday. Picks will be sent via email before Friday morning. Click the “Buy Now” button below to join in. Don’t miss out!

For those wishing to bet the Preakness online, check out Twin Spires. Signing up through this site will get players a $100 sign up bonus. It is where I will bet betting this weekend!


 

Preakness Picks

FREE 2012 PREAKNESS PICKS

I’ve just completed my Preakness selections. I’m very excited for the races on not only Saturday, but Friday too. The Grade 2 Black-Eyed Susan Stakes has plenty of good wagering opportunities. I’m very confident that 8/5 ML favorite Tidal Pool will go down. She has been raced hard lately and this isn’t an easy field. Two weeks rest will be her undoing.

I like a filly that will be a solid price and should pay double digits to win the race. Who is that filly? You will have to buy my picks to find out! You can do so by clicking the “Buy Now” button below. They are just $5.99 and include picks for 7 races along with Daily Double Pick 3, Pick 4, exacta, trifecta, and superfecta bets. Don’t miss out. The races included in this years Preakness Package are listed below.

  • Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
  • Preakness Stakes
  • Lang Stakes
  • Dixie Stakes
  • William Donald Schaefer Stakes
  • Gallorette Handicap
  • Maryland Sprint Handicap

Below is a list of some of the winners I had on this year’s Derby trail.

  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($6.20)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($9.60)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby ($9.60)
  • Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis Stakes ($11.00)
  • Pleasant Prince in the Grade 1 Florida Derby ($26.40 to PLACE)

I’m supremely confident that I will pick winners in several of the races I have handicapped on Saturday. I also expect them to pay double digit prices to win.  I love my all stakes Pick 4 play and I expect it to pay in excess of $1,000. The ticket is very affordable to play so the risk is low. Click the “Buy Now” button below to play along with me. Doing so will pay dividends on Saturday.

FREE 2012 PREAKNESS PICKS