May 22, 2012

All Star field gathers for Grade 1 Forego Stakes at Saratoga Race Course

It’s hard to believe a year has passed since last years Forego Stakes. Last years running seems like yesterday and is still fresh in my mind. My top selection, First Defence, won the race easily. He paid somewhere around $17 to win, but I can’t remember the exact price. He never really did much after that, and I haven’t heard much about him this year. This years field is much stronger. Let’s take a look.

Everyone remembers Pyro, right? The former Kentucky Derby contender won the Louisiana Derby and looked like he would keep powering home to the winners circle until things started to fall apart in the Bluegrass Stakes. He has won just one time since losing in that prep. He looked really sharp in his first race of the year after breaking poorly. I’ve always believed Pyro was a late running sprinter. Changing jockeys from Shaun Bridgmahon to John Velazquez will help him. I like the son of Pulpit’s chances to win this race.

Kodiak Kowboy is the favorite at odds of 5/2. He finished third behind Fabulous Strike last out in the Vanderbilt Handicap. That race was loaded with talented sprinters so running third wasn’t too bad. The Larry Jones trainee does his best work at seven furlongs and is a Grade 1 winner at this distance. I think it will take his best race, but it will come as no surprise to find this warrior in the winners circle.

After entering the meet on a very big hot streak, Calvin Borel has won just a single time from thirty seven mounts. Could Ready’s Echo be the second win? His perfect two for two record at the seven furlongs distance tells me he could be. Todd Pletcher will throw on blinkers for the first time after this guy finished third in the Grade 3 Seagram Cup at Woodbine. The son of More Than Ready would benefit from a quick early pace.

Cornelio Velsquez is having one of the worst years of his career and is winning races at a mere 7% clip. It’s not all bad for the seasoned vet though. Gold Trippi won a minor stakes last out over Pyro. It looks like he is getting better and he can hang with the best in this race. His odds are very juicy at 20-1, considering the horse that he just beat is much lower at 4-1. I would definitely throw Gold Trippi in on exacta, trifecta, superfecta, pick 3 and pick 4 wagers.

My Pal Charlie looks tough at odds of 6-1. He finished second in the Grade 2 Churchill Downs Handicap at this distance earlier in the year. He ran fourth in the second running of the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile last year. The son of Indian Charlie has struggled a bit lately, but will do better turning back in distance. Robby Albarado always rides well for trainer Albert Stall. I wouldn’t count this one out.

Who would’ve thought that we would get odds of 15-1 on a horse that beat Fabulous Strike three races ago? Certainly not I. True Quality is a speedster that is going to gun for the lead. Javier Castellano will be riding for the first time. His last race was a seventh place finish in a minor stakes over the turf at Penn National. That race didn’t play to his strengths and he will do better here. Could he go from flag fall to that’s all? It’s worth a shot at 15-1. Keep him on all exacta, trifecta, and superfecta tickets.

Can I hit this race two years in a row? Probably not, but I’ll try. I like Pyro as my top pick even though I’ve been burned by him several times in the past. It looks like he is on the improve and I think he will do well at this distance. Who do you like? Leave a comment and let your voice be heard!

Arlington-Washington Futurity tops big day of racing at Arlington Park

I’ve been told by several people that Arlington Park is one of the most beautiful tracks in the United States. I haven’t been fortunate enough to visit yet, but from the pictures it looks like a truly wonderful place. They have several big races on the card this Labor Day weekend, and the focus will be on the babies.

Thats right, the Arlington-Washington Futurity and the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes. The winner of those races will almost undoubtedly show up in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. The Arlington Washington Handicap is also on the card.  Let’s take a look at the fields for those events.

Dixie Band is the likely favorite in the Arlington-Washington Futurity. The gelded son of Dixie Union is a perfect two for two, winning the $50k Spectacular Bid Stakes last out. David Flores will be picking up the mount for trainer Wayne Catalano. He isn’t the flashiest worker. Distance shouldn’t be a problem because he is only racing one furlong further than he did in his last race. He has a nice stalking style. It would come as no surprise if he ran huge to win this race.

Piscitelli is also interesting. He is shipping in from Monmouth Park after breaking his maiden in his second try. The son of Victory Gallop rallied from the back of the back in that win. It will be interesting to see how he handles the synthetic surface. Junior Alvarado will ride for trainer Gregory Sacco.

Wayne Catalano also trains the favorite in the Arlington-Washington Lassie Stakes.  She Be Wild is a perfect two for two, drawing off to an easy victory in each of those starts. The daughter of Offlee Wild has a nice stalking style, and she will relish the extra ground. She has several nice works since her last race including a :58 2/5 B five furlong move. Junior Alvarado will ride.

I suspect this will be an easy win for her. The rest of the field doesn’t look like much and she seems like a filly that could explode on to the scene in this event. Catalano also trained Dreaming of Anna who capped an undefeated two-year-old campaign with a win in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies. Could this girl be headed in the same direction?

The Washington Park Handicap is also on the card. It is open to three-year-olds and up and is contested over 1 3/16 miles on the main track. Some of the entrants include Grade 1 Lanes End Breeders Futurity winner Wicked Style. He hasn’t been running well lately, but classy horses can rebound. Dubious Miss is a tough allowance horse, but can rumble with the likes of these. A win from him wouldn’t be surprising.

Are you going to Arlington Park to watch these races? What are your thoughts? Leave a comment!

Strike The Tiger headlines Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes

The meet at Saratoga Race Course is quickly coming to a close. We have just a few graded stakes races left and I’m looking forward to each one. The Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes presents a unique challenge. It is for two-year-olds over 8.5 furlongs on the turf. Nownownow won the race in 2007 prior to taking the inaugural running of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. You can bank on seeing some of these colts in the Breeders Cup.

Strike The Tiger is a very interesting entry. He is undefeated in three career starts, including a victory at the Royal Ascot meet in Great Britain. He made history with that win, becoming the first American trained horse to ever win a race at the meet. He did so at odds of 33-1. He won’t be anywhere near that price in this spot, but could still offer value. The son of Tiger Ridge will be racing at a route distance for the first time.

He has a lot of early zip, but I would like to see if he can settle behind the early leaders to avoid a speed duel.  He did well to win his first start back in the U.S., taking the $50k Chenery Stakes at Colonial Downs in wire to wire fashion over 5.5 furlongs on the grass. The works are solid entering the race. Wesley Ward has been doing a great job with him and the same can be said for jockey John Velazquez. I’m thinking about keying him first in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers. I might single him on my Pick 3 and Pick 4.

Two Notch Road is likely to get some support after shocking the racing world by winning the Continental Mile at odds of 107-1. Now that’s what I call lighting up the tote board! That win was the first time the son of Partner’s Hero had raced over the turf. I have my doubts about his ability to duplicate that form. I may use him to round out some exotic tickets, but he will be left off all exacta tickets.

Todd Pletcher has a pair of interesting entries in Zapster and Interactif. I like Zapster the most even though he is a maiden. The son of Ghostzapper ran a good race as the favorite to finish second in a maiden special weight last out over this same distance and surface. I like his early speed and expect a good run from him here. Interactif ran strong to break his maiden first out, but ran poorly in the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes last out. He should improve while switching surfaces and extending to a route distance.

The New York bred Jung Man Scott should have plenty of support after breaking his maiden in 1:02 2/5 for 5.5 furlong on the turf, earning a BRIS figure of 92. The Richard Dutrow trainee is progressing very well. The son of Freud will have ace jockey Ramon Dominguez in the irons. He is the likely pacesetter.

I’ll make Strike the Tiger my top selection. This race promises to be an interesting one. Who do you like?!

Rutherienne the pick to win the Grade 2 Ballston Spa Handicap

Rutherienne is the definition of a distance specialist. She has won at today’s distance of 8.5 furlongs over the turf seven times in nine tries. The daughter of Pulpit has only won a single time from her four starts at Saratoga. She ran third in the other three, two of which were Grade 1 races. She has the right style to win this race. Trainer Christophe Clemente is among the best in the nation with turf horses. You can bet that he will have this one ready to roar.

I’m not thrilled with the favored Cocoa Beach’s chances here. She worked very hard to beat a field of New York breds last out, and just doesn’t seem as good as she was last year. I won’t be using her on top of any of my tickets, but I might throw in her third just because I’d hate to get beat by her. I hope she takes a lot of money, because I really don’t see her winning this one.

Captain’s Lover is entering this race after a seven length triumph in the $200k Matchmaker Stakes, a race that was taken off the turf. She seems to be improving  for trainer Todd Pletcher. She has performed much better across the pond, but if she runs like she did in her last race here then she could have this race won.

My Princess Jess could surprise some folks here. She closed well last out in the Grade 1 Diana Stakes but could only finish fifth. Prior to that race she was third behind champion mare Forever Together in the Grade 1 Just a Game Stakes. A yielding track would help the daughter of Stormy Atlantic, and I think she will get one.

It’s hard for me to go against Rutherienne here. I love her record at the distance, and she is just very tough overall. Who is your pick? Leave a comment and let me know!

Munnings favored to win the Grade 1 Kings Bishop Stakes

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A contentious field of eight has gathered to try to win the Grade 1 $300,000 King’s Bishop Stakes over seven furlongs on the main track at Saratoga Racecourse. Last year’s race was won by Visionaire. Prior to that, Hard Spun took the race. The list of stars to have competed in this event is a mile long, and this years winner will certainly have a bright future.

Munnings is the morning line favorite at odds of 2-1. Though he is much hyped, he has yet to win a Grade 1 race. His last trip to the track was a third place finish in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. That was too far for the son of Speightstown to run, and he should perform better while returning to a sprint distance. The best win for Munnings to date came in the Grade 2 Woody Stephens at Belmont Park.

Todd Pletcher is concerned about the rail draw for Munnings. Nobody wants the rail, especially when sprinting. Great horses overcome problems and I’ve heard only the highest of praise for Munnings. If he is as good as everyone thinks he is then it shouldn’t cost him the win. I’ll look elsewhere for my winner, but I’m certainly giving a big look to this one with John Velazquez in the irons.

I’ve grown fond of Big Drama. He is quite a temperamental horse as he proved prior to the start of the Grade 1  Preakness Stakes, and last out in the Grade 3West Virginia Derby. I love his early zip and the stubbornness that he shows to win races. He went crazy on the front end and wasn’t able to hold off Soul Warrior in the West Virginia Derby, but should do well turning back in distance. The son of Montbrook would be a perfect three for three at the distance if not for an iffy disqualification in the Grade 2 Swale Stakes.

He has enough early speed to be close or to take the lead. I expect jockey Eibar Coa to try and go wire to wire. This colt always shows up with a strong race. His only off the board finish came against fierce competition in the Preakness Stakes, where he ended up fifth. I’d like to see him calm before the race. He clearly holds a strong hand for trainer David Fawkes.

Vineyard Haven is the only Grade 1 winner in the race, but will be making his first start since finishing fourth in Dubai back in February. The son of Lido Palace has been training here at Saratoga since early July, but will probably be a bit short coming off the shelf. He has good early speed, but his running style might have changed since his freshman campaign. I won’t be using him on top.

There was a split second when I thought Capt. Candyman Can might run Quality Road down last out in the Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes. The gelding ran a strong race, but was not able to get by Quality Road. The gelded son of Candy Ride has never lost at this distance and looks primed for a peak effort.

This will be a good one for horse betting. I’ll go with Big Drama at 3-1. Who do you like in the King’s Bishop Stakes?

Grade 1 Travers Stakes

The Travers or the “Midsummer Derby” as it has become known, is one of the most important races of the year. It is named after William R. Travers who was the President of the Saratoga Racing Association. His horse, Kentucky, won the first running of the event in 1864. The winner of the race will have his silks painted on a canoe that sits in the infield. This tradition has existed since 1961.

Another cool tradition is the awarding of the Travers Trophy. It was designed by the world famous Tiffany & Co and donated by Samuel Riddle’s wife. Riddle owned the great Man O’ War who the found the winners circle in the Travers in 1920. A replica of the trophy is given to the winner each year and is presented by a member of the Riddle family.

A field of seven horses has gathered for the 140th running of the Travers. Quality Road is the 8/5 morning line favorite after winning the Grade 1 Florida Derby and Grade 2 Amsterdam Stakes. He broke the track record in both of those events. I’m a bit concerned about his ability to go from 6.5 furlongs to 1 1/4 miles in the span of one race.

The son of Elusive Quality is one of the best horses in the entire country, but he is not a machine. He will be racing past his optimal distance and is probably susceptible to a bounce after running so well off the shelf in the Amsterdam. I love the horse and I would be happy to see him win, but I won’t be betting him at a short price.

My choice to take the $1,000,000 purse is Steve Asmussen’s and Jess Jackson’s Kensei. The title of “Kensei” is one from ancient Japan that was given to a warrior of legendary skill. I like the that, and this colt has plenty of skill. The son of Mr Greeley has improved with every start and if he moves forward  AGAIN it would be bad for his foes.

While watching the replay of the Jim Dandy Stakes I saw Edgar Prado look back as they had just straightened out for the home stretch. It was as if he knew he was sitting on a ton of horse, which was the case as Kensei was a fairly easy winner. His final time of 1:47.90 was more than stellar. He holds a very strong hand in this race and will offer good value thanks to the favored Quality Road.

Belmont Stakes winner Summer Bird will provide good value after running second to Rachel Alexandra in the Grade 1 Haskell Invitational. He was taken out of his game in that race and had to stalk closer than he probably would have if the filly was not in the race. Look for Desormeaux to drop back further off the pace in this one. This colt is probably the most optimal for the distance.

Warrior’s Reward stayed on well in the Jim Dandy after setting the pace and being overtaken by Kensei. I don’t think he will win this one, but it will be up to him and Calvin Borel to keep Quality Road honest on the front end. Charitable Man is a colt I expect see mid pack. I have to think if he was going to win this one, he would ran better in the Jim Dandy.

Grade 2 Lane’s End Stakes winner Hold Me Back and Our Edge round out the field. This race promises to be an exciting one, but don’t expect to get rich. Bettors can probably get away with going two deep in the Pick 4 and Pick 6. Who do you like in the 140th running of the Grade 1 Travers Stakes? Send me a tweet @gradedstakes on Twitter, or leave a comment and express yourself!

Saturday Stakes

Spring At Last in the winners circle after capturing last years Godolphin Mile.

2/2 (SAT) G1 $500K Donn Handicap (Gulfstream) 4up, 9f

This is going to be without a doubt the best race this weekend. It is truly refreshing to see a big race with loads of talent in it and several horses who could win. Brass Hat was a gritty second in the Clark last out, and AP Arrow the winner of that race is also here. Einstein is coming off an impressive allowance triumph and will go to the front. He will have company up there in Daaher who is undefeated since the addition of blinkers. In those three starts he has defeated Breeders Cup Sprint winner Midnight Lute. He is definitely going to run well, but I don’t think he is the winner. That is saying a lot since I have been following him since he broke his maiden. Last year’s Godolphin Mile winner, Spring At Last will be breathing down the neck of the pace. He has won an allowance just recently and I like him here. You’re getting a good price at 6-1, so check him out.

1st- Spring At Last

2nd- Daaher

3rd- Brass Hat

2/2 (SAT) G2 $150K Swale Stakes (Gulfstream) 3yo, 6.5f

I hate to go with the flow, but 9/5 favorite Wincat looked like an absolute monster first time out. He was under wraps late and won by 9 lengths. No, I’m not kidding. If that race wasn’t a fluke look for him to win easy. That being said Eaton’s Gift who set the pace in the Grade 1 CashCall Futurity last out will challenge for second. Silver Edition will be there for third, but I wouldn’t be surprised at all of he beat Eaton’s Gift.

1st- Wincat (Potential MONSTER in this colt)

2nd- Eaton’s Gift

3rd- Silver Edition

2/2 (SAT) G2 $300K Strub Stakes (Santa Anita) 4yo, 9f

Tiago is going to love the extra 1/8 of a mile here. I like him to win this race, but it won’t be big. He is the kind of horse who wins by necks and noses. I see him getting up over Monterrey Jazz who will finish second as the legitimate pace. Great Hunter will also relish the extra distance here picking up third.

1st-Tiago

2nd- Monterrey Jazz

3rd- Great Hunter

SunShine Millions Selections

$300K Sunshine Millions Sprint Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 7) 4up, 6f

1st- Benny The Bull

2nd- Mach Ride

3rd- Bushwacker

$300K Sunshine Millions F&M Sprint Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 4) 4up, 6f

1st- Dearest Tricksi

2nd- Shaggy Mane

3rd- Tiz Elemental

$250K Sunshine Millions Oaks (Gulfstream, Race 8) 3yo, f, 6f

1st- Yogi’ssplashofgold

2nd- Blitzing

3rd- American County

$500K Sunshine Millions F&M Turf Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 5) 9f T

1st-Nashoba’s Key

2nd- Memorette

3rd- Placid Lake

$500K Sunshine Millions Distaff Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 9) 4up, f/m, 9f

1st- Ginger Punch

2nd- Bayou’s Lassie

3rd- Prop Me Up

$250K Sunshine Millions Dash Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 6) 3yo, 6f

1st- Bob Black Jack

2nd- Georgie Boy

3rd- Johns Grooms

$500K Sunshine Millions Turf Stakes (Gulfstream, Race 10) 4up, 9f T

1st- War Monger

2nd- Icy Atlantic

3rd- Birdbirdistheword

$1m Sunshine Millions Classic Stakes (Santa Anita, Race 7) 4up, 9f

1st- Going Ballistic

2nd- Gottcha Gold

3rd- Buzzards Bay

San Marcos & Tuzla Stakes

Audacious Chloe will try to capture the Tuzla Stakes at Santa Anita

San Marcos Stakes, Grade 2 (Santa Anita), $150,000 for four year olds and upwards, 10 furlongs on the Cushion Track

I can see a few horses winning this one. However I am going to opt with Decado. He ran against some very stellar horses in Europe. Among these was Excellent Art, the favorite and second place finisher in this year’s Breeders Cup Mile. In the same race was another Breeders Cup contender, Jeremy, and the UAE Derby winner Asiatic Boy. The list goes on. He presents good value at 6-1. The 6-5 morning line favorite is Champs Elysees. In his only U.S. start he was second to Sunriver. I like him second to run second again. For third I like Medici Code at 7/2 who is running very well lately.

1st- Decado

2nd- Champs Elysees

3rd- Medici Code

Tuzla Stakes, Grade 3 (Santa Anita) $100,000 for fillies and mares four years old and upwards, 8 furlongs on the turf

David Flores has a great chance in this one aboard Live Life. She is running very well lately. She was fourth two back in the Grade 1 Matriarch, and second by a nose last out in an optional claimer. Doug O’Neil’s mare Trick’s Pick stalked Citronnade before fading last out. She performs well at this distance. I’m going with her for second. Audacious Chloe with Garret Gomez aboard can pick up third.

1st- Live Life

2nd- Trick’s Pick

3rd- Audacious Chloe

Sunday Stakes

El Encino Stakes, Grade 2 (Santa Anita) $150,000 for four year old fillies

1 1/16 on the Cushion Track

I’ve got a long shot alert here. Fleet Caroline with the young Joe Talamo in the irons poses a major threat to this field. I expect her to go out front and challenge Romance is Diane for the early lead and I think if she can wrangle it from her then she could win. I believe the lightly raced Zenyatta will be charging home like a freight train for second. Indescribable who is a winner of three in a row will also be coming late and I look for her third. If your budget allows it I would definitely throw in Tough Tiz’s Sis and Romance is Diane in my exotics.

1st- Fleet Caroline

2nd- Romance is Diane

3rd- Indescribable

Santa Ynez Stakes, Grade 2 (Santa Anita) $150,000 for three year old fillies,

7 furlongs on the Cushion Track

This is pretty much an open and shut case. It would take a freak accident for Indian Blessing to lose to such a lowly field. For second place I like Patty Gallagher’s Peisinoe. She is undefeated in two starts and should get a good stalking trip. I’ll take McAnnally filly Izara for third.

1st- Indian Blessing

2nd- Peisinoe

3rd-Izara

Santa Ysabel Stakes, Grade 3 (Santa Anita) $100,000 for three year old

filles, 1 1/16 on the Cushion Track

The 8/5 morning line favorite is going to be very tough in here. She goes by the name Turn Away she is what she will probably do to her opponents tomorrow. If Grace Anatomy can run back to her form in the Alcibaides Stakes she would pose a serious threat. With the addition of blinkers today I like her to run second. $350,000 auction purchase Initiation will compete for third.

1st- Turn Away

2nd- Grace Anatomy

3rd- Initiation

First Lady Handicap, Grade 3 (Gulfstream) $100,000 for four years old and

upward fillies and mare, 6 furlongs on the dirt

This race is going to set up for an off-the-pace type runner. That being said I like Quality Affair to win. Her last race in which she won by 5 lengths was the first time she rated. With all the speed in this race you’ve got to believe the connections will rate again. Princess Janie is coming off 3 months rest. She has tactical speed but I expect to lay off the pace. She is my choice for second, but will be very contentious for the win. Sugar Swirl looks sharp with a 1/10 :35 H 3 furlong work on January 8. She is the class of the race and I look for her to run third.

1st- Quality Affair

2nd- Princess Janie

3rd- Sugar Swirl