May 22, 2012

2011 Stephen Foster Handicap Preview

The Stephen Foster Handicap is the most prestigious race at Churchill Downs after the Kentucky Derby. Last year’s winner, Blame, went on to win the Breeders Cup Classic. We had him as our top pick that day. Let’s see if we can get the winner again this year.

Flat Out (30-1) He ran huge to be second in the LoneStar Park Handicap last out in his first start since December and second start since April of 2009. The son of Flatter is obviously training well and he still has the talent that allowed him to win the Smarty Jones Stakes as a three-year-old. If he goes off anywhere near 30-1 I’ll have at least a few bucks on him and I will use him on my Pick 4 ticket.

Crown of Thorns (4-1) Surprised most people by defeating Sidney’s Candy last out in the Mervyn Leroy Handicap. The son of Repent can go all day as proved by a second place finish in the Goodwood Stakes and a win in the Robert Lewis as a three-year-old. His current form is sharp, but I have doubts about his ability to race on true dirt. He is a pass for me.

Apart (5-1) Another son of Flatter here. He won the William Schaefer Memorial last out over Colizeo. He looks a cut below the best horses in here, but a switch to jockey Julien Leparoux could help him make up the difference.

Worldy (30-1) Took down the highly regarded Bind last out in his first race since last October. The son of AP Indy has never gone 9 furlongs, but his pedigree says he will love it. His best career race came at Churchill Downs when he was second by a neck in the Northern Dancer Stakes so we know he loves the place. It would take a career effort to win, but I can see him getting a piece at a hueg price.

El Caballo (15-1) I don’t see anything that makes me think the seven-year-old would be competitive here. I’ll pass on him.

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Regal Ransom (6-1) I thought he was all washed up, but his last two efforts clearly proved me wrong. He really brough his “A” game last out in the Alysheba where he ended up second by a nose. The extremely versatile son of Distorted Humor has learned to effectively rate and that could make all the difference here. He will be making his third start of the year which is almost always a peak effort. Alan Garcia is going to be sitting on a ton of horse turning for home.

Equestrio (12-1) Many doubted if he fit with this group last out, but he proved everyone wrong by finishing a strong third in the Alysheba beaten only a head. Before that he took down Kentucky Derby favorite Dialed In. When I think of his sire Elusive Quality I don’t think of 9 furlong horses, but he already owns a win at the distance. The works are strong and Nick Zito is willing to take a shot. Anytime Zito is willing to try we should be willing to give his horse a chance.

Pool Play (20-1)  Trainer Mark Casse is 20% winners moving horses from turf to dirt and this horse will make his first start over a dirt surface. His works have been stellar, but the competition here is fierce. Considering including him fourth on superfecta tickets, but more than that would be a surprise.

Duke of Mischief (6-1) My instincts tell me this horse won’t get much respect at the windows and he really should. He took down one of the best group of older horses in a race that wasn’t a Breeders Cup event in many years last out. The son of Graeme Hall is bred to go the distance and he owns 3 wins going 9 furlongs. Jockey Joe Bravo has ridden him in his last two races and they fit each other well. He is without a doubt a very strong win contender.

Giant Oak (7/2) He came running to make it interesting in the Alysheba last out, but ended up fifth beaten 3/4 of a length. The son of Giant’s Causeway beat a top notch field in the Clark Handicap last fall which is over this same trip. If things get hot up front he will be the primary beneficiary.

Mission Impazible (9/2) JJ Castellano gets the mount on this colt who has a perfect name for what he is trying to do today. Well it’s not quite impossible, but breaking all the way to outside doesn’t help his chances. Last out in the Alysheba Garrett Gomez tried to relax him off the pace and this appears to be a horse that wants to be on the lead or at least very, very close to it. Look for JJ to get him involved from the start and take them as far as he can.

I’m going to swing for the fences here and make Flat Out my top selection to win the Stephen Foster Handicap. His morning line price of 30-1 is just way too good to pass up. His 99 Beyer Speed Figure last out was incredible considering how long he had been off and if he improves just a little that puts him with the best horses in this race. Other selections for the card at Churchill Downs are available on our Free Horse Racing Picks page.

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Regal Ransom & I Want Revenge top Suburban Handicap

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The Grade 2 Suburban Handicap contested over 9 furlongs on the dirt for three-year-olds and upward has quite a strong field for its 2010 edition. 2009 Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge is back for his first start since scratching as the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby on the day of the race. Regal Ransom, winner of the Grade 2 Super Derby, is back for his first start since setting the pace and fading in the Breeders Cup Classic back in November. It could be another and perhaps sharper horse that wins the Suburban Handicap though.

Haynesfield scored his third consecutive win and seventh win from ten career starts last out in his 2010 debut. The son of Speightstown has excellent tactical speed. He went wire to wire in his last score against allowance optional claiming company, but when he won the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap before that he sat in second most of the way before taking over in the stretch.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Haynesfield is his ability to go a route of ground. He is two for two at the Suburban Handicap distance of 9 furlongs. Speightstown’s progeny are typically sprinters. Steve Asmussen and Ramon Dominguez are two of the best in racing at what they do. The top two in this race would be well advised not to ignore the New York bred Haynesfield. He holds a strong hand.

Racing for the first time since November won’t be a problem for Regal Ransom. He won first out going seven furlongs at Saratoga as a two-year-old. When he won the Super Derby he was racing for the first time in over four months. Not only has Regal Ransom shown the ability to run on rest in the past, but he is working up a storm. His last work was a :58 4/5 B five furlong move that was the second fastest from 23 works. Prior to that he worked six furlongs in 1:11 B and five furlongs in :58 2/5 B.

If the son of Distorted Humor is able to get loose on the lead he may gallop home. Don’t expect Ramon Dominguez and Haynesfield to let that happen though. Rick Dturow has entered the claimer Pictural to run on the lead with Regal Ransom as a rabbit. Regal Ransom may be classy enough to win even with a pressured pace. Alan Garcia rides for Bin Suror Saeed.

The fact that Joe Talamo saw fit to hop on a plane and pick up the mount on I Want Revenge is very encouraging. It may be that he is attached to the horse, but it may also be that I Want Revenge is ready to run a big race. Perhaps he is coming out of loyalty to IEAH. Regardless of why, I like that he will be here to pilot “his” colt. The son of Stephen Got Even is a perfect one for one at the distance of nine furlongs with his only race being a win with a troubled trip in the Wood Memorial.

I Want Revenge has more than enough speed to be forwardly placed, but he proved in the Wood that he also has the ability to close with a rush if that is needed. I expect Joe Talamo to take sit behind horses and make a move entering the stretch.  If I Want Revenge is ready to go he will be tough to hold off in the lane. Regardless of his performance in this race, if I Want Revenge can return to his 2009 form he will be a player in the older horse division.

Other contenders include Eldafeer and Convocation. The latter was last seen finishing fourth behind Quality Road in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile Handicap. I’m not sure he wants to go this far. Eldafeer was third with a wide trip last out in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. The gelded son of AP Indy could be an exotics factor, but I have a hard time believing he can win this race. Pictural and Unbridled Danger round out the field.

Who do you like? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

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