The Florida Derby is perhaps the best prep race available for the Kentucky Derby. The purse is fat at $1,000,000, the distance is perfect at 9 furlongs and the 5 weeks away from the Run for the Roses is excellent timing. The last winner in the Kentucky Derby that the Florida Derby produced was Big Brown. Before that it was the awe inspiring Barbaro. Ice Box, winner of the 2010 Florida Derby, nearly took the Roses, but finished second after a horrid trip. His trainer, Nick Zito, is back for another shot.

Zito is going for a second win in a row here with Dialed In. The colt is ranked #2 on our Kentucky Derby Contenders list. Robert Lapenta owns both Ice Box and Dialed In. The latter was last seen finishing second against older horses in optional claiming company. That was his first loss in three tries. The trip in that race wasn’t the best and I’m not going to let it influence my opinion of him. Dialed In is without a doubt one of the best three-year-olds out there.

Julien Leparoux is the pilot for Dialed In. I love the Frenchman’s style and expect him to work out the perfect trip for the son of Mineshaft. Dialed In has been working very strongly and has produced two bullets (:59 4/5 B 1/13 and :47 2/5 B 1/19) at Palm Meadows since his last race. We can be sure that the connections are bringing everything here to try and win this race. If he does so he will lock up a spot in the starting gate of the Kentucky Derby.

The raw talent I saw when Dialed In won the Holy Bull was like nothing I’ve ever seen before. He was so green and so far back that I thought he had no chance. He proved me wrong by blowing the doors off his competition late in the race. What is going to happen when this guy learns how to be a racehorse? If he puts together his best race here none of his foes stand a chance. I’ll make him my top selection at 2-1.

Although I like Dialed In a lot here, that doesn’t mean he is a cinch. Bill Mott’s colt To Honor And Serve looks primed for a strong effort after fading to be a well beaten third in the Fountain of Youth behind today’s favorite, Soldat. Before that race he was the victor in the Remsen Stakes at this distance. He is a big and strong colt that should get better with time. Look for his pedigree as a son of Bernardini to shine in the races with more distance. Garrett Gomez will get the mount from John Velazquez because the connections are worried about the latter’s availability in the Kentucky Derby. I really feel like To Honor And Serve is ready to run a top race and his morning line price of 4-1 is very enticing. Don’t leave him out.

The Repole Stable owned and Todd Pletcher trained Stay Thristy is the Rocky Balboa of the race. That is to say he has got a big chance here, but certainly isn’t one of the top picks. “Thirsty” as fans like to call him was last seen winning the Gotham Stakes. He raced wide there before bursting clear to a 3 1/4 length win as the 4-5 favorite. I like that effort given he hadn’t raced since the Breeders Cup Juvenile and his trip was less than desirable. Todd Pletcher opts to throw the blinkers on here and that will be a good move as it should give him more focus. Ramon Dominguez stays on and you know he isn’t giving up a days worth of mounts at Aqueduct to mess around. Stay Thirsty has a chance here at 8-1. He has to be included on deeper tickets.

Flashpoint looks like the pacesetter at 6-1 after winning the Hutcheson by 7 1/4 lengths over Travelin Man. That win was impressive, but I’m skeptical about his chances here. This is his first try around two turns and I don’t think the field he beat last out was very good. He is working well and Richard Dutrow has won this race before. I don’t like him to perform well here, but his presence is important nonetheless as he will ensure a fast pace.

Right behind that fast pace will be 9-5 favorite Soldat. Ranked at #4 on the Kentucky Derby Contenders list, Soldat has a big shot here. However, I think he is worth taking a swing against at such a prohibitive price. We have to remember that he has already locked up his spot in the Kentucky Derby. This means jockey Alan Garcia isn’t going to try overly hard with him to win here if it turns out that Soldat ends up in a dog fight or simply needs a little pushing. Remember, the goal for the connections of theses horses is to have their horses peak in their NEXT race. Winning the Kentucky Derby is goal #1 for Soldat. The Florida Derby would be a nice feather in the cap, but it is merely secondary at this point.

So to review I like Dialed In as my top selection to win the 2011 Florida Derby with a big look to To Honor And Serve. Stay Thirsty is a live long shot. Who do you like? Leave a comment and be heard!