February 8, 2012

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Wide open field of 13 to compete in Fair Ground’s Lecomte Stakes

January 19, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Shared Property

Shared Property

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!

$175k worth of graded stakes earning are on the line in the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes from Fair Grounds on Saturday. The 1 mile and 70 yards race is the first in a series of three Kentucky Derby prep races at the Louisiana track. The other two are the $300k Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes and $1 million Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. A full field of 13 will vie for the top prize and it appears that as many as nine have a realistic chance of winning.

The Oklahoma bred Ted’s Folly (Wild Tale x Trick Dale by Sword Dance) is riding a six race win streak into the Lecomte. He was last seen winning the $300k Springboard Mile over Reckless Jerry, a colt that would return to post a sharp second place finish in the Smarty Jones Stakes at Oaklawn Park. The Wilson Brown trained and Jose Medina ridden colt is a deep closer. That could work to his advantage with so much speed signed on in this race.

Larry Jones’s colt Mr. Bowling (Istan x Goldilocks Bear by Irish Tower) will receive plenty of support. He was a 7 ¼ length winner of the Dover Stakes on October 8 at Delaware Park before finishing third as the favorite in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes at Churchill Downs. He’s received plenty of time off since then and it appears he’s kicking the barn down based on his workouts. Larry Jones has a tendency to work his horses fast, but it is an encouraging indicator nonetheless. Robert Albarado is listed to ride.

Exfactor (Exchange Rate x Bright Magic by Prized) was an easy 2 ¾ length winner of the Grade 3 Bashford Manor Stakes at Churchill Downs in July. He followed that win up with a nose victory over Laurie’s Rocket in the Sugar Bowl Stakes over this track on December 17. He does a nice job of waiting patiently behind the speed before pouncing on his foes. This will be a big test as he stretches out in distance for the first time. Bernard Flint trains and Shaun Bridgmahon will be in the irons.

Zayat Stables will send out the entry of Dan and Sheila (More Than Ready x Sheila’s Prospect by Not For Love) and Z Dager (Mizzen Mast x Fees Waived by Wavering Monarch). Dan and Sheila broke his maiden at first asking at Gulfstream Park and Z Dager was an impressive second out victor over this track. I’m a bit more impressed with Z Dager as he already owns a win at the distance and I loved the move he made to win that race. You could do worse than to bet an entry of composed of a horse from Todd Pletcher and Steve Asmussen, respectively. Dan and Sheila will be piloted by John Velazquez and Shane Sellers will ride Z Dager.

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Seven Lively Sins (Stormy Atlantic x Carson’s Star by Carson City) is quite an interesting colt. He was never comfortable last out in the Delta Jackpot where he finished fourth with a slightly troubled trip. I don’t think he cared for racing on a bull ring track. Before that he almost took the field gate to wire in the Iroquois Stakes before submitting to Motor City for a second place finish beaten just ¾ of a length. His pedigree is tilted more towards sprinting so he could have a tough time going two turns here. Despite that, I think this one could develop into a very, very nice runner down the line if not in the Lecomte. Anna Napravnik rides for trainer Al Stall.

Hammers Terror (Artie Schiller x Sister Baby by Lord Avie) is likely to catch too much money. Both of his synthetic races were strong, but I’m not wild about his optional claiming win over this track. He beat Adena’s Chance in that race, a horse on that rail that has little to no chance in this spot. My gripe is that he didn’t really kick away strongly from that horse. Despite that, he did post a very quick :59 3/5 B five furlong move on January 7 and hasn’t done much wrong. He can win, but I can’t accept him at what is likely to be a short price. Look for James Graham to sit near the pace on the Michael Stidham pupil.

Many will dismiss Capetown Devil (Cape Town x Nureyev’s Angel by Nureyev) as being too cheap, but he answered that question last out against when he beat optional claiming company. It was actually pretty impressive as he stumbled badly and rallied four wide for the win. He hasn’t lost in three tries and has the benefit of a win over this track and at this distance. Overlooking him would be a big mistake. David Carro

I’m going to pass on Shared Property (Scat Daddy x Yoursmineours by Belong To Me). I’m not sure he wants to race on dirt even though he won first out at Ellis. That was maidens and these are Grade 3 horses. Throw in a three month layoff and I’m not interested in the Arlington-Washington Futurity winner. Tom Amoss trains and Leandro Goncalves is listed to ride.

Any number of horses could win here, but I’m going to go with Seven Lively Sins as my top pick. While I’ve got some reservations about how he will handle the distance, the price should be right and he is racing for top connections. The talent is there; we just have to hope the bottom is too. I’ll give a big look to Capetown Devil and Ted’s Folly as well. Look for Exfactor to run huge in his next race.

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!

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Handicapping the Fair Grounds Pick 4

February 16, 2011 By 1 Comment

Fair Grounds is the place to be this weekend.  They have four very strong races in the Rachel Alexandra Stakes, Mineshaft Handicap, Fair Grounds Handicap and Risen Star Stakes. Those four races make up the late 50¢ Pick 4 and are the beginning of the $1 Pick 6. Let’s breakdown my Pick 4 ticket. Join our mailing list for a chance to see my Pick 6 ticket as well as selections from across the nation this weekend. You can do so by entering your name and email address in the form located to the right of this post.

Rachel Alexanda Stakes

Kathmanblu is our top rated three-year-old filly and a clear stand out in this race. The Bluegrass Cat filly has two sharp works since easily taking a $100k minor stakes on the grass. That was after she romped home in the Golden Rod by 8.5 lengths. The price will be short, but they aren’t beating here and I’m not going to waste money trying.

Mineshaft Handicap

This is a tricky race. I’m going with last years Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible as my top selection. He needed his race last out which was his first try since finishing 9th in the Kentucky Derby. He was second that day, but with the added distance his chances improve. Look for him to rate just behind the speed and pounce when the time is right for underrated jockey Rajiv Maragh. I’ll also use Apart, Le Grand Cru and Country Flavor.

Fair Grounds Handicap

Workin For Hops gets a very favorable pace scenario for his first race off the shelf. I love the fact that ace jockey Anna Napravnik opted to get off Gran Estreno to ride him. This is his first race since late September, but he has won on a big layoff before. I’m going to take a chance and leave Gran Estreno off my ticket. The 8-year-old isn’t suited for this distance and the older a horse gets the harder it is to run back to back strong races.  Dubious Miss should put in a strong run from the rail. The old timer looks ready to run a peak race. I’ll also include Sleepless Knight for Joe Bravo and Kelly Breen and Loup Breton for new trainer Todd Pletcher and jockey Rajiv Maragh.

Risen Star Stakes

If you have been to this site before you know we are crazy about Rogue Romance. He is a standout in the Risen Star and a clear single for me. The pace set up looks perfect too. Look for him to mow them all down in the long Fair Grounds stretch for Runnymede Farm, Ken McPeek and Julien Leparoux. Click here to read more about the Risen Star at our sister site, Triple Crown Champ.

Pick 4: 3/1,3,4,5/1,5,8,10/1

So there you have it, our Pick 4 ticket for Risen Star day at Fair Grounds. It will cost just $8 to play for 50¢. Join our mailing list by filling in your name and email address  on the form located on the right side of the page. If you do so you will get our picks for races throughout the nation this weekend as well as a Pick 6 play from Fair Grounds. Look for the picks to go out sometime Thursday afternoon.

Who do you like in these races? I’d love to hear your thoughts. Leave a comment and we can talk about it. I’m also on twitter @gradedstakes.


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Rogue Romance starts quest for Kentucky Derby glory in the Risen Star

February 15, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Saratoga is a place of dreams. The best of the best get their first race at the Spa. It is where 2008 Kentucky Derby winner Big Brown won his debut, romping home on the grass. It is also where 2011 Kentucky Derby contender Rogue Romance got his start. He finished fourth beaten only 2 ¼ lengths going 8.5 furlongs on the turf. In his next start he raced with lasix for the first time and drew clear to an easy 2 ¾ lengths win under the same race conditions.

The connections at historic Runnymede Farm, owned by Catesby Clay, knew they really had a runner after that race. That’s why they agreed with trainer Ken McPeek to try the Grade 3 Bourbon Stakes over the same distance and surface which he broke his maiden. It proved to be a wise move as he swung very wide turning for home and won quite easily under jockey Julien Leparoux. It was extremely impressive as had only one horse beat in the field of 12 as they hit the stretch. Click here to watch that race.

After that race trainer Ken McPeek decided to give the Breeders Cup Juvenile a shot. Uncle Mo and Boys at Tosconova looked like the ones to beat and they were as they ended up finishing 1-2. However, it was Rogue Romance that checked in 3rd, beating 7 other horses in his first race over the dirt.

The win in the Bourbon and subsequent third place effort in the Juvenile means that the son of Smarty Jones has plenty of earnings to start in the field of 20 on the First Saturday in May. Now he must prove he belongs. Martin O’Dowd, Vice President and General Manager of Runnymede Farm, doesn’t think that will be a problem. He was kind of enough to chat with me about the star colt this morning.

“We wouldn’t trade places with anyone.” says the O’Dowd. “He’s bigger, stronger and faster than last year.”

I was very happy to hear this as Rogue Romance is #2 on my list of Kentucky Derby contenders. He is the 3-1 morning line favorite in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes this weekend at Fair Grounds where he will face stiff competition in the form of Mucho Macho Man, Machen, Decisive Moment and Justin Phillip. “The Rogue” as they call him at Runnymede will have to summon up his best speed to run past them in the lane. I don’t think he will have any problem.

“We expect Rogue Romance to win the Risen Star.” O’Dowd said.

I expect a win here too and I hope for one in the Kentucky Derby. It would be the first for owner Catesby Clay and Runnymede Farm.

As the oldest continues thoroughbred breeding operation in Kentucky, the farm has bred some very fast horses. The farm bred 1995 Kentucky Derby runner up Tejano Run. Other notable horses bred by Runnymede include Roamer, Sir Dixon, Starshoot, Greeley’s Galaxy and Wild Gale. They also bred one of Rogue Romance’s competitors for the Roses this year, Jaycito. The farm had stakes performers on three continents last year, including Group 1 placed Laughing Lashes in Ireland and Group 3 placed Deep Sound in Japan.

Rogue Romance is a top horse at Runnymede, where Catesby Clay’s 8 children are extensively involved in the operation. He is one of their favorites and for good reason. “He’s a nice guy who loves attention.” O’Dowd said about the colt. “The Rogue has a cool temperament and is really interested in people.” he added.

“We will let the horse do the talking.” O’Dowd commented about the horse’s chances to advance further. I hope to hear him talking very loudly all the way over in my hometown of Cincinnati, OH after the race.

 

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Ron The Greek tepid favorite in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes

February 17, 2010 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes is in the final prep for the lucrative $750,000 Louisiana Derby. It was won by Friesan Fire in 2009. He would go on to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. This years field is competitive with 12 entrants and is lead by Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes winner Ron The Greek. Other notable entries include Stay Put, Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Discreetly Mine.

Ron The Greek will  be spotting the field 4 pounds after closing from far back to take the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in his last trip to the track. The son of Full Mandate is trained by Thomas Amoss and piloted by James Graham. He came from 16 lengths off the pace in the Lecomte. It may be wise for Graham to try and keep him closer this time around due to the fact that this is a much more competitive field. If he waits too long the other closers will get first run. He looks like a very solid colt with a huge shot at winning this race at odds of 3-1.

Bill Mott is leaning towards shipping Drosselmeyer in for this race after an impressive performance at Gulfstream Park where he stopped the clock in 1:49 2/5 for 9 furlongs. The Winstar Farm owned son of Distorted Humor will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He is a perfect 2 for 2 on dirt tracks. The colt looks very fast and if he improves off his last effort he is going to be very tough to hold off in the stretch. His morning line price is 4-1.

Tempted To Tapit turned many heads last out at Aqueduct where he splashed home in a maiden to win by 11 1/2 lengths going wire to wire in the mud. Before that race he was second to Laus Deo. Before that he was second to Schoolyard Dreams who would go on to finish second behind Rule in the Grade 3 Sam F Davis Stakes. The son of Tapit will have David Cohen in the irons. Steve Klesaris is trainer. His pedigree tells me he should run all day. He may stay at Gulfstream Park for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. It will be interesting to see how he performs at odds of 8-1.

He looked very fast running second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at 2, but Discreetly Mine hasn’t lived up to his potential so far. The speedy son of Mineshaft was last seen finishing fourth in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park. JJ Castellano is picking up the mount up for trainer Todd Pletcher. I expect an improved effort from him at odds of 5-1, but it is probably going to take a step forward for him to win.

Stay Put is a wild card for trainer Steve Margolis and jockey Jamie Theriot. He is a fast closing son of Broken Vow. He has won his last two races. I had the good fortune of betting him when he won last out at odds of 7-1. His pedigree tells me he can get this distance with ease. If he can win this race he will quickly find himself on the road towards the Run for the Roses.

Who do you like in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes?

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