Todd Pletcher, trainer of Risen Star Stakes winner El Padrino
The 2012 Risen Star Stakes saw Todd Pletcher’s El Padrino duel to the wire for a gutsy win over Larry Jones’s lightly raced Mark Valeski. Z Dager checked in third after racing in that position for the vast majority of the race.
Let’s recap the action.
El Padrino still has work to do
El Padrino, which means “The Godfather”, didn’t run a bad race. He waited patiently behind the top three before pouncing at just the right moment under JJ Castellano. He showed determination and grit to rally past a stubborn opponent. That sort of “fight” is something you always like to see in a horse.
The colt probably has enough graded stakes earnings ($200k) to make the Kentucky Derby, but it certainly wouldn’t hurt to gather just a little bit more. While his race wasn’t bad, I’m not sure I would say it was particularly great either. He really should have ran past a horse like Mark Valeski. My gut instinct tells me that he will be in trouble when he faces a horse like Algorithms, Sabercat or Union Rags.
El Padrino is a fast colt, but he is overvalued at this point. He needs to move forward in the Louisiana Derby to have a chance at Churchill Downs on the first Saturday in May. I do not consider him a top 5 contender at this point.
Z Dager is a tease
The Zayat colt was my top selection and much too big of a price at 9-1. I loved the way he ran in the Lecomte and I thought he was due for a much bigger effort in the Risen Star. Shane Sellers gave him a great ground saving trip and in the end he finished third beaten 5 ½ by the top pair. It was an effort that was just good enough for me not to write him off, but not good enough for me to sit up and say “wow”. It will be interesting to see what he does next time out. There is plenty of latent ability in this one, but Steve Asmussen may not be able to get it out in time. Turf races could be in his future.
Mark Valeski is for real
Owner/breeder Brereton Jones should be very excited for this son of Proud Citizen. He ran his eyeballs out to be second and almost downed perhaps the biggest buzz horse on the Kentucky Derby trail right now. It was an especially impressive performance given that this was just his second race since the end of September and his first try around two turns. He will improve by leaps and bounds in the Louisiana Derby next time out.
Optimizer is not a dirt horse
It’s not as if we didn’t already know this, but Optimizer wants to run on the grass. This is his second bad effort in a row on the dirt as he finished ninth here and was up the track before this one in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Trainer D Wayne Lukas is dead set on making it to the Kentucky Derby, but this one isn’t going to take him there. Coach, get him back on grass where he can compete against top three year olds. It’s not happening on dirt; not now or ever.
Shared Property bounced
Tom Amoss had Shared Property ready for a big effort in the Lecomte where the gelding finished third beaten just a half length. It was perhaps too good of an effort as he bounced off that career high figure. The pace scenario didn’t help him much today either. The Risen Star was sort of a merry-go-round. I’ve got a feeling that this one will show up big time next out when he races third off the shelf. He’s likely to be a juicy price too. Be sure to keep an eye on him.
Three-year-olds are the most volatile type of racehorse. They can improve or go bad over night. At the end of the year we will look back at the Risen Star and see that is produced at least 2 or 3 consistent graded stakes contenders. As far as the Kentucky Derby goes, Mark Valeski has the greatest potential to make something happen. I’m a tad concerned about his ability to go the classic distance. His pedigree is a little shaky, but there are definitely some good route influences.
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