May 22, 2012

Posts Comments

You are here: Home / Archives for ron the greek

Gotham Stakes & Santa Anita Handicap recap

March 5, 2012 By Leave a Comment

Alert the presses! Hansen can rate! The Kentucky Derby contender raced very wide and behind horses into the first turn of the Gotham Stakes before drawing away to an easy victory over My Adonis. He earned a Beyer Speed Figure of 95.

I’ve harped on the point all year long and I’m very pleased that trainer Michael Maker removed the blinkers and allowed Hansen to pass horses. The extremely talented colt is ten times more dangerous now than he was before. It wasn’t a shabby group he defeated. Most will tell you he beat nothing, but My Adonis is a stakes winner and certainly no slouch.

On the whole, the Gotham Stakes will be remembered as an effective prep and I expect several of its competitors to win stakes races this year. Be sure to keep an eye on Done Talking. He finished 10th, but clearly needed a race and might not have liked the track. The son of Broken Vow could be ripe for the picking at a big price in the near future.

While I loved the Gotham, I cant say the same for the historic Santa Anita Handicap. Last year’s edition was great, but the 2012 version of the Big Cap failed to meet high expectations. The race started to dissolve when Game On Dude scratched in favor of the Dubai World Cup. In the end, we saw Ron The Greek grind out a relatively easy win over Setsuko and Uh Oh Bango.

Kudos to trainer Bill Mott for yet another big victory. He deserves all the credit in the world for turning Ron The Greek around. Unfortunately, the win wasn’t good for the Santa Anita Handicap. Ron The Greek is a third rate horse at best. I would be very surprised if anything exiting this race had an impact on the classic division this year. The older horses on the west coast just arent that good. That’s a shame given that they will have a chance to compete on their home turf in the Breeders’ Cup this year.

What did you think of the Gotham? Is Hansen the real deal? How about the Santa Anita Handicap? Leave a comment below to share your thoughts.

Filed Under: Horse Racing News Tagged With: , , , , ,

Ultimate Eagle the pick to win Santa Anita Handicap

March 2, 2012 By Leave a Comment

by Chris Hernandez

The Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap is the one of the marquee events of the Santa Anita winter/spring meet. Classic horses such Alysheba, Free House and Lava Man has won this race in the past. This year’s rendition took a bit of a hit when defending champion Game On Dude decided to defect from the race to go after the riches in Dubai later in the month. A field of thirteen lines up in attempt to take over the crown, with the four year old Ultimate Eagle being the morning line favorite. Let’s take a look at some of the contenders in a race run at the same distance and track as this year’s Breeders’ Cup Classic.

Ultimate Eagle has won of all his races by using his early speed to clear off from his rivals and never giving them a chance to catch him. He won the Grade 2 Strub Stakes last time out, clearing away from fellow speedball Tapizar, putting that foe and the rest of the field away winning by several lengths. He has worked well since the race, including a bullet work across town at his base at Hollywood Park. The ten furlongs is not an issue, since he won a Grade 1 at the distance (on turf). His main defect is that if he does not make the lead, he will not pass another horse. If some other horse insists on the lead, it could hurt the Eagle’s chances.

Setsuko is the highest returning finisher from last year’s edition. He finished a game second after taking the worst of the bumping incident. The rest of his year didn’t go so well, leading to him being gelded after his poor finish in the Pacific Classic. He came back this year seemingly a new horse, winning an allowance race in fine fashion. His nasty hanging habit looks to be behind him, and he would seem to appreciate every yard of the ten furlong distance. But was the allowance win just an aberration?

Ron the Greek is the sole out-of-town invader in the field, having finished second in the Sunshine Millions Classic last time out. This one time Derby Trail casualty struggled to find the winner’s circle for nearly two years until he was turned over to hands of his current trainer Bill Mott (trainer of Cigar and last year’s BC Classic winner Drosselmeyer). He has not been out of the exacta in his four races in his current barn. He has developed more into a grinder than the pure closer he once was, allowing him to stay within contact of the leaders early. He seems to be going better than ever, but can he handle the rise to Grade 1 competition along with the ten furlong distance?

Norvsky is an interesting longshot. From the same connections as Champion Older Male Acclamation, this Cal-bred looks to add to his G2 win at the meet. In his only other dirt try, he finished a good second to a lone speed horse. While ten furlongs might be his upper limit, he has shown plenty in his recent turf stakes efforts to deserve a shot against this field. He figures to sit mid-pack and grind his way to victory. Class could be a problem.

Bob Baffert looks to three-peat with his second-stringer Prayer For Relief. While he is a multiple graded stakes winner, he has been well beaten in his last three starts. Even his work tab does not show those typical swift early a.m. drills that Baffert is known for with his charges. Uh Oh Bango is a game animal who has put together two nice efforts lately but it looks like this is just too far for him.

Our pick to win the Big ‘Cap is Ultimate Eagle. He looks head and shoulders the best in this race. Martin Pedroza says he is the best horses among thousands that he has ridden. He hasn’t peaked yet either. Look for him to put on a show in the Santa Anita Handicap. If he should falter, or if you doubt him, look to Ron The Greek and Setsuko.

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , , , ,

2012 Florida Sunshine Millions Classic Preview

January 26, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Mucho Macho Man

Mucho Macho Man

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!

Last year we saw Tackleberry spring a 27-1 upset in the Sunshine Millions Classic. This year, with a short field of just seven competitors, we aren’t likely to see a bomb of that magnitude. That doesn’t mean value has vanished though.

Duke of Mischief (Graeme Hall x My Lady Amelia by Real Courage) has spotty recent form, but he’s got the best back class in the race. One of the best handicap horses of 2011, he won the $1 million Charles Town Classic over a very salty group in April. He’s had a rough time since then, but the work tab indicates he’s ready to fire a big shot. Specifically, I really like the :48 B 1/75 four furlong move at Calder. Don’t count the David Fawkes horse out. Joe Bravo will ride.

Adios Charlie (Indian Charlie x Teak Totem by Northern Afleet) should catch plenty of action and I’m glad for that; he’s a play against. This colt wants no part of nine furlongs against a horse like Duke of Mischief  or Mucho Macho Man. The average winning distance of his sire and broodmare sire is 6.6 furlongs. He will be over bet and should be avoided until he turns back to a one turn mile.

468x60 - Pick Your Perk

Todd Pletcher’s Turbo Compressor (Halo’s Image x Dixieland Event by Wild Event) will be ridden by his main man, John Velazquez. He drew away by 10 ½ lengths last out in a $150k Florida-bred race. He did so after making an easy lead. That wont happen in this race and it severely decreases his chances. Toss him at a short price.

Kathy Ritvo’s Mucho Macho Man (Macho Uno x Ponche de Leona by Ponche) is an interesting horse. He scorched a decent group quite easily last out at Aqueduct all the way back at the beginning of November. I’m not quite sure he wants to go this far, but I like his chances of doing so more than Adios Charlie. He’s the main threat to my choice.

Ron The Greek (Full Mandate x Flambe’ by Fortunate Prospect) should have his fair share of support after winning back to back overnight stakes for Bill Mott. He has changed his running style and is now closer to the pace early on. I’m not sure that he beat much in his last two races and this is a big step up in class. I can’t like him in this spot.

My top pick to win the Florida Sunshine Millions Classic is Duke of Mischief. He’s the classiest horse in the race and if the works are any indication, he is ready for a big time run. Mucho Macho man also deserves consideration based on the strength of his last race.

TVG- Watch. Wager. Win!

 

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , ,

2011 Donn Handicap Preview

February 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Good horse betting races have been sparse this year, but it looks like we have a great one lined up for Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the form of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. Last years edition of the 39 year old race was taken by Quality Road. The then four-year-old colt smashed the competition by over 10 lengths! Notable winners of the Donn include Forego, Foolish Pleasure, Pistols and Roses, Cigar, Skip Away, Medaglia d’Oro, Saint Liam and last but not least, Invasor. Let’s take a look at this years field!

#1 I Want Revenge – It seems like an eternity has passed since this son of Stephen Got Even crushed the field to take the Gotham Stakes and then overcome big time trouble to win the Wood Memorial. After taking the Wood he missed significant time due to injury. His next race came over a year later in the Suburban Handicap where he was third beaten four lengths by the front running Haynesfield. After that he was also third in the Iselin at Monmouth. Ramon Dominguez will ride for the first time. It should be interesting to see how much speed he shows. Ultimately, this is a tough field and he is entering off a long rest so that makes him an outsider. On his best day he is the best horse in this race though!

#2  Hear Ye Hear Ye – He hasn’t got a prayer of winning. Maybe he could run fourth by some fluke, but I doubt it.

#3 Morning Line – Zabeel Racing now co-owns this son of Tiznow with Thoroughbred Legends. The $700k auction purchase (separate from Zabeel) won the Pennsylvania Derby last year before running second by a head in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He was last seen finishing third in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hopes after setting the pace. He will be on the lead, but could catch pressure from Hear Ye Hear Ye, I Want Revenge, Square Eddie and Rule.  I don’t envision that being a problem. However, I do see the distance troubling him. Even though he won the Pennsylvania Derby at this distance, I just don’t think this horse is best when routing. He is a miler and will prove that in the final furlong of the race.

#4 Giant Oak – After watching the Clark Handicap, I had no idea how he ran so well. In retrospect, this is an improving horse. In his last four races he owns a win via DQ in the Clark and a second in two Grade 3 races. Still, I’m very skeptical about him. I’ve never thought he was very good and its hard to shake that thought once its planted. The pace set up will work in his favor as he will be rolling late. I won’t be surprised if the son of Giant’s Causeway checks in third or fourth.

#5 Eldaafer – The ice cold Edgar Prado picks up the mount on this gelded son of AP Indy who was last seen winning the Breeders Cup Marathon three months ago. He hasn’t seen a field this tough in his career despite winning a race that is Breeders Cup in name, but not in competition. Distance won’t be a problem, but when all is said and done this guy is probably the 6th or 7th best horse in the race. Long shot at best in my humble opinion.

#6 Fly Down – He just keeps on coming doesn’t he? The Nick Zito trainee finished third in the Breeders Cup Classic last out after just getting past fourth place finisher Lookin At Lucky. Before that race he was beaten 6 lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup by Haynesfield. He put in excellent efforts to be second by a nose in the Travers and second in the Belmont Stakes last year. He knows how to win races as he proved by taking the Dwyer by an emphatic six lengths.  Julien Leparoux will get the mount for the second time. He guided him to his third place finish in the Classic last out. Fly Down must concede at least 3 pounds to every horse in the race. He is working well, but it is advisable to take a shot against him in his first outing of the year.

#7 Square Eddie – WOW, what a run he put together in his first race since 2009 last out when he took an allowance event by 3 1/4 lengths. Study duty can wait a little longer. Trainer Doug O’Neill is excited about his chances as is jockey Corey Nakatani. I’ll take a wait and see approach. The surface he won on at Santa Anita is very hard to gauge right now. Also if he is so good why isn’t Joel Rosario here after winning on him last out? I could see Square Eddie running up the track or winning. Nothing he does will surprise me. Having said that I will pass and go with a more reliable horse.

#8 Rule - Todd Pletcher’s son of Roman Ruler rated nicely in his first try since the Florida Derby last out when jockey JJ Castellano guided him to a second place finish in the Hal’s Hope. He has excellent pedigree as his dam is half to Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. It will be interesting to see how close to the pace he is in this spot. He is working like a monster and it appears he hasn’t lost any of the talent he showed at the ages of two and three. I’d like to see him sit right behind the speed and pounce in his second try at 9 furlongs.

#9 Ron The Greek – Lezcano will get the call here on a horse who put together a nice runner up effort in optional claiming company last out. In that race he rallied from 14 lengths back to finish just 1 3/4 lengths behind stakes winning Our Dark Knight. If things get really hectic on the front end, which they could, Ron The Greek will be the prime beneficiary. The colt is classy enough to win this, but he will need help from the pace setters.

I’m going to make Rule my top selection to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. He showed a new dimension when he rallied from 5th last out and I think that will really work to his benefit here. I expect the jockey to lay right off the pace, go by Morning Line, and hold off the late charges from the closers. Other than Rule, I’m interested to see how I Want Revenge performs. I might take a flyer on him at a price, but he will probably need a race or two to get in gear. He might be able to find a spot in the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta. I’m really hoping he returns to top form.

Who do you like in the 39th renewal of the Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park? Leave a comment and let your voice be heard!

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , , , , , , , , ,

Ron The Greek tepid favorite in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes

February 17, 2010 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes is in the final prep for the lucrative $750,000 Louisiana Derby. It was won by Friesan Fire in 2009. He would go on to be the favorite in the Kentucky Derby. This years field is competitive with 12 entrants and is lead by Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes winner Ron The Greek. Other notable entries include Stay Put, Drosselmeyer, Tempted to Tapit, and Discreetly Mine.

Ron The Greek will  be spotting the field 4 pounds after closing from far back to take the Grade 3 Lecomte Stakes in his last trip to the track. The son of Full Mandate is trained by Thomas Amoss and piloted by James Graham. He came from 16 lengths off the pace in the Lecomte. It may be wise for Graham to try and keep him closer this time around due to the fact that this is a much more competitive field. If he waits too long the other closers will get first run. He looks like a very solid colt with a huge shot at winning this race at odds of 3-1.

Bill Mott is leaning towards shipping Drosselmeyer in for this race after an impressive performance at Gulfstream Park where he stopped the clock in 1:49 2/5 for 9 furlongs. The Winstar Farm owned son of Distorted Humor will be ridden by Kent Desormeaux. He is a perfect 2 for 2 on dirt tracks. The colt looks very fast and if he improves off his last effort he is going to be very tough to hold off in the stretch. His morning line price is 4-1.

Tempted To Tapit turned many heads last out at Aqueduct where he splashed home in a maiden to win by 11 1/2 lengths going wire to wire in the mud. Before that race he was second to Laus Deo. Before that he was second to Schoolyard Dreams who would go on to finish second behind Rule in the Grade 3 Sam F Davis Stakes. The son of Tapit will have David Cohen in the irons. Steve Klesaris is trainer. His pedigree tells me he should run all day. He may stay at Gulfstream Park for the Fountain of Youth Stakes. It will be interesting to see how he performs at odds of 8-1.

He looked very fast running second in the Grade 1 Champagne Stakes at 2, but Discreetly Mine hasn’t lived up to his potential so far. The speedy son of Mineshaft was last seen finishing fourth in the Spectacular Bid Stakes at Gulfstream Park. JJ Castellano is picking up the mount up for trainer Todd Pletcher. I expect an improved effort from him at odds of 5-1, but it is probably going to take a step forward for him to win.

Stay Put is a wild card for trainer Steve Margolis and jockey Jamie Theriot. He is a fast closing son of Broken Vow. He has won his last two races. I had the good fortune of betting him when he won last out at odds of 7-1. His pedigree tells me he can get this distance with ease. If he can win this race he will quickly find himself on the road towards the Run for the Roses.

Who do you like in the Grade 2 Risen Star Stakes?

Filed Under: Horse Handicapping Tagged With: , , , , , ,