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Betting the 2011 Pacific Classic from Del Mar

August 26, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The 2011 Pacific Classic from Del Mar is for three year olds and upward going 1 ¼ miles on the dirt for a purse of $1,000,000.

This looks like a strong race with 7 of 10 entrants having won a graded stakes race. The race includes 4 Grade 1 winners and 2 others that are Grade 1 placed.

Let’s take a look at the field.

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Don Cavallo (El Prado x Transcendental by Mt. Livermore) ships in after a win last out in the Dominion Day at Woodbine. He was on the muscle from the get go and entered the stretch with a 5 length lead before winning by 3 ¾ lengths. This is a horse that does his best running going long so this distance will work to his advantage. His latest work of :59 B as well as the fact that Luis Contreras is making the trip is quite encouraging. Plenty to like about the Roger Attfield trained colt.

Jeranimo (Congaree x Jera by Jeblar) couldn’t catch Acclamation last out in the Eddie Read. The last time he routed on a synthetic surface he finished fourth in the 2010 Santa Anita Handicap, but before that won the Grade 2 Strub Stakes. This distance may be a bit out of his range, but he is training well and possesses enough back class to win.

Stately Victor (Ghostzapper x Collect The Cash by Dynaformer) Winner of the 2010 Bluegrass Stakes chased a slow pace to be third beaten 6 lengths in the Dominion Day last out. He has a sharp five furlong work in :59 4/5 H over the track. I have to imagine Mike Maker has shipped in for a reason. Mike Smith will ride.

Tres Borrachos (Ecton Park x Pete’s Fancy by Peteski) Gelding has done a total 180 since trainer Martin Jones got him. In his first race since September the gelding finished third in an allowance race on Jun 10. That was a strong race and it served to tighten the bolts as he would win the San Diego Handicap in his next start. That victory means he automatically qualifies for the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. The big difference for this gelding has been learning to come from off the pace. He fits with jockey Rafael Bejarano very well. Tres Borrachos got as good a shot as any horse to win the Pacific Classic.

Acclamation (Unusual Heat x Winning In Style by Silveyville) He got an easy lead in his last two races and kept going as a result. Those were Grade 1 races, but in name only. The fields were just plain bad. Moving to the main track where he is winless in six tries. That makes him hard to like. Patrick Valenzuela gets the mount for trainer Donald Warren.

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Setsuko (Pleasantly Perfect x Dance With Grace by Mr Prospector) Draw a line through that last race where he chased a slow pace and was going further than he should. Richard Mandella trained colt has just 1 win in 15 starts, but was second beaten only a nose after some bumping in the Santa Anita Handicap and was second behind Twirling Candy in the Californian. He looks live at a price with Victor Espinoza up.

Great Warrior (Leroidesanimaux x Esther Rose by Seeking The Gold) Three year old is working very well for trainer AC Avila and Omar Berrio gets the call to ride. The saddle slipped in his last race so forget that one. This will be his first true try on a synthetic track if you don’t count that last one. Has finished behind good horses like Burns and Cloud Man. Despite that, he’s going to have to step up big time to compete here. He could be an exotics possibility.

Game On Dude (Awesome Again x Worldly Pleasure by Devil His Due) It must be nice to be Bob Baffert. He will get to watch Coil in the Travers on Saturday and then this fast, fast gelding on Sunday. Game On Dude won the Santa Anita Handicap in March and has done well since with on the board finishes in the Charles Town Classic and Lone Star Park Handicap. After those tries he was second beaten just a nose in the Hollywood Gold Cup. He’s tactical enough to be on the lead or behind a few horses. The works are sharp and he has to be considered the favorite here even if the morning line maker didn’t see it.

Twirling Candy (Candy Ride x Danzing by Chester House) That final quarter of a mile has killed him in the Santa Anita Handicap and Hollywood Gold Cup. Can he get it done this time? Trainer John Sadler has been giving him longer works in what I have to assume is an attempt to get some stamina in him. He would handle this field with ease if he runs his best race, but the distance will always be a question until he wins going 1 ¼.

Quindici Man (Came Home x Humble by Valiant Nature) Love the way he came running to be third beaten half a length in the Santa Anita Handicap. He has raced on the turf twice since then. Getting off that surface should help him. Martin Garcia in the irons is a plus.

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2011 Hollywood Gold Cup betting preview

July 7, 2011 By 2 Comments

The Hollywood Gold Cup is the marquee event at Hollywood Park. Former winners include Lava Man, Affirmed and Native Diver just to name a few. This year a solid field of eight horses has gathered to compete in the 10 furlong Cushion Track race. The winner will get the lions share of a $500,000 purse. Let’s break down the race.

Twirling Candy (Candy Ride x House of Danzing by Chester House) This guy will look to get revenge on Game on Dude after losing to him in the Santa Anita Handicap. If his last out effort in the Californian Stakes is any indication, the rest of field could be in serious trouble. Jockey Joel Rosario was able to get him to relax and he ran past his rivals in the stretch for an easy and effortless win. It is quite possible that this colt is the best in the country and it is also possible his jockey is the best at what he does too. Let’s see if they can pass this big test together as an imposing favorite.

Miss Match (Indygo Shiner x Miss Simpatia by Southern Halo) She will seek to become the first filly to win the Hollywood Gold Cup after finishing behind the top two in her division in her last two races, Blind Luck and Havre de Grace, respectively. She won the Grade 1 Santa Margarita in her second race of the year. The Neil Drysdale trainee gets better as the races get longer, so look for her to be firing late as the light weight in this handicap race. Joe Talamo will ride.

Setsuko (Pleasantly Perfect x Dance With Grace by Mr. Prospector) The Dick Mandella trained colt just missed in the Santa Anita Handicap two back before taking the place spot behind Twirling Candy last out in the Californian. The Big ‘Cap was his only try at the distance and I’m inclined to believe he liked it based on that very solid effort. He will need a quick pace to do his best work, and if he gets one he might earn his first graded stakes win. Setsuko is still eligible for non-winners of 2 lifetime.

Game On Dude (Awesome Again by Worldly Pleasure by Devil His Due) His Santa Anita Handicap win was highly impressive as he survived an inquiry after bumping with Setsuko and Twirling Candy. Chantal Sutherland gets back aboard for the first time since that win. In her absence the gelding ran second in a very contentious edition of the Charles Town Classic. After that he disappointed in the Lone Star Park Handicap where he ended up third in a five horse field. It will be interesting to see what Sutherland does in the early stages of the race. He has lots of tactical speed and there isn’t a clear pace setter. If the jockey makes the lead he stands a chance at pulling the wire job.

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Awesome Gem (Awesome Again x Piano by Pentelicus) The reigning Hollywood Gold Cup champ has won just once since then and that win came two back in the Lone Star Park Handicap. The eight-year-old gelding was last seen taking the second place spot behind Headache in the Cornhusker Handicap at Prairie Meadows. The connections say he is training exceptionally well. I’m not sure about him, but I wouldn’t criticize anyone for liking him. David Flores rides for Craig Dollase.

Soul Candy (Birdonthewire x Just Satisfaction) He ran evenly most of the way last out in the Californian. His best effort this year was in the Santa Anita Handicap where he finished up very well to be fourth. Garrett Gomez keeps the mount and he may have figured him out by now. I can’t like him given the quality of the field in here, but I feel like a break through win is on the horizon; just not in the Hollywood Gold Cup. Patrick Gallagher is the trainer.

First Dude (Stephen Got Even x Run Sarah Run) I find myself guilty of one of the worst things you can do as handicapper with this colt and that is holding a grudge. He burned me several times after a top notch run to be second in the Preakness last year. I finally wrote him off and decided I wouldn’t burn any more money betting him. After I made that decision he won 2 of his next 3 races. Those 3 races all came with Bob Baffert. Coincidence? I think not. His last out win in the Alysheba was his first against graded stakes company, but I don’t feel like he beat much there. Given his connections and a race last out that will impress most he figures to be an underlay. Martin Garcia will pilot.

Dark Cove (Medaglia d’Oro x Crystal Cove) This is the dark horse contender and I give him a big shot to make noise in his first Grade 1 try. He is a perfect 2 for 2 over synthetic surfaces and his best lifetime effort came at Keeneland. His pedigree says he will go the distance as does his race history. Ken McPeek is white hot right now and he wouldn’t ship all this way if the colt wasn’t kicking the barn down. Rafael Bejarano rides and that will make him all the more dangerous. Leave him off exotic tickets at your own peril.

Twirling Candy looks good here and might finally claim his spot atop the division with a win. I hate taking chalk, but I don’t really see him losing here. I’ll also include Dark Cove on my Pick 4 and Pick 6 ticket. Game On Dude is worth considering as well.

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2011 Santa Anita Handicap Preview

March 3, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 1 Santa Anita Handicap, once known as the hundred grander, is one of the finest races in all of thoroughbred racing. It iscontested at the classic distance of 1 1/4 miles for four-year-olds and upward. Greats like Seabiscuit, Round Table, Ack Ack, Affirmed, Spectacular Bid, John Henry, Alysheba, Tiznow and Lava Man are among those to grace the winners circle after the Big ‘Cap.

Let’s glance over the field and try to find the winner.

#1 Soul Candy- This will be the first time the gelded son of Birdonthewire races on a dirt track. He rallied from 15 lengths back to finish third beaten 2 1/4 lengths in the SunShine Millions Turf last out. Three races back he won the California Cup Classic. I love the way he always comes running even if the pace is slow. He gets in very light at 114 lbs and Garrett Gomez keeps the mount. Distance will be no concern as he won going 1 3/8 miles on the grass. I see a fast pace and if he takes to the dirt he could be tough to hold off in the stretch.

#2 Spurrier- Alonso Quinonez gets aboard for Bob Baffert. The son of Dixieland Band closed into a slow pace to be second behind Gladding last out in the San Antonio Handicap. He will get a much more favorable pace set up today, but I think he is a cut or two below the best horses in this race.

#3 Gladding- Winner of the San Antonio Handicap last out has been a different animal since joining the John Sadler barn. Rafael Bejarano decided to stay on the son of Sarava instead of Game On Dude or Setsuko. Look for him to be on or near the pace. Distance shouldn’t be a problem. He’s got a big shot here.

#4 Pode Ir- Faded last out after pressing the pace in the San Antonio Handicap. Would be a shock to see him win.

#5 Twirling Candy- The rock star of this race is a son of Candy Ride. He took his first Grade 1 event two races back when he nosed out Smiling Tiger in the Malibu. After that he easily won the Grade 2 Strub Stakes. Look for him to stalk the pace. I’m a bit skeptical as he has failed miserably in his only attempt against older horses. That probably wont be a problem here, but I’m willing to take a swing against anyway.

#6 Setsuko- Is he the same horse that finished second in the Santa Anita Derby? I don’t know. If he is, the extra furlong is really going to help him. Things could get heated up front and he comes from off the pace. He would have to run the race of his life to win. I don’t envision that happening, but if he still has some life in his legs he could pick up third.

#7 Quindici Man- His works have been a bit stronger. I like the 1:12 six furlong move on 2/25. He’s an outsider and will have to improve to run third of fourth.

#8 First Dude- This horse really makes me scratch my head. The colt has only won a single race, but has amassed earnings just shy of $900k due to a second place finish in the Preakness and third place finishes in the Belmont and Haskell. Perhaps he needed a race last out, but he really should have handled that field. I love the move to the Bob Baffert barn. Martin Garcia gets a leg up and I think that will work to his advantage. I told myself I wouldn’t bet him again until he gets a win under his belt, but he is definitely a nice colt.

#9 Tweebster- He’s getting better, but Twirling Candy already crushed him once. Of course, the same could have been said for Anthony’s Cross and Tapizar in the Sham, and that didn’t stop Anthony’s Cross from winning. Granted, Tapizar was rank and didn’t finish the race. For Tweebster to win, Twirling Candy would have to just not show up. Others rate higher.

#10 Aggie Engineer- His fan club was really filling up after he won the Native Diver Handicap and San Pasquel, but he failed to fire in the San Antonio last out when third behind Gladding and Spurrier. I’m concerned about the distance. He doesn’t want to go this far.

#11 Game On Dude- Love the name. The gelded son of Awesome Again is lightly raced and has the right to improve after winning off the shelf last out in an optional claiming event. Distance will be no problem. Jesus Velazquez gets the mount. He’s got a big shot here if he can move forward.

I’m going to make Soul Candy my top selection to win the Santa Anita Handicap. I love his closing move and he will get plenty of pace to chase. We know gets stronger as the race gets longer. The best thing about him though is his morning line price is a whopping 30-1. Garrett Gomez at 30-1 in a grade 1 race? Yea, give me some of that.

Who do you like?

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The Program seeks first stakes victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes

February 25, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Bob Baffert has a deep stable of three-year-olds this year. The Program may be his fourth or fifth best sophomore, and he is the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes which is a prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. That really says something about his stable when he is sending out his fourth stringer for a nice prep race worth $150k.

The field for this race looks fairly weak and I have a hard time seeing any of the entrants making it to Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May, but anything is possible. The Program is probably the most likely candidate. He will be racing for Thoroughbred Legends Racing Stable and Martin Garcia will be in the irons. The son of Harlan’s Holiday was last seen scoring a nose victory over Indian Firewater in an allowance event. He was fourth in the CashCall Futurity at the age of two. The extra distance in this race should suit him well. He obviously wouldn’t be a surprise.

Kettle River enters the Sham on a two race win streak for trainer Eion Harty and owner Darley Stable. He defeated The Program in his last race which was an allowance win. He is working up a storm, but I have to wonder if the distance will suit him. He is a son of Congaree. Brice Blanc will get the call to ride. He has started just three times, and I doubt we have seen his best stuff yet. Maybe this is his coming out party?

Alphie’s Bet figures to get plenty of support for trainer Alexis Barba. The son of Tribal Rule was last seen breaking his maiden against state bred company at Santa Anita over the lawn. Before that he was second behind Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Caracortado in the California Breeders Champion Stakes. He is a big time closer, so he will need things to get hot up front if he is going to have a chance. He is working up a storm and should run well.

Michael Machowsky is getting recognition as the trainer of Caracortado, but he also has a tough Triple Crown contender with Nextdoorneighbor. He is a son of the Chilean bred Lido Palace. He took a maiden special weight by four lengths last out in his third trip to the track. The colt figures to get the distance. Mike Smith will pick up the mount in place of Rafeal Bejarano who has opted to ride Setsuko. Both colts look strong. Setsuko is bred to run all day as a son of Pleasantly Perfect with Mr. Prospector on the dams side.

Who do you like in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes? Click here for information on how to get my picks and plays for this race and other stakes action this weekend!

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