February 5, 2012

Free Horse Racing Picks for the Autumn Stakes, and Hollywood Turf Cup!

The Breeders Cup may be over, but the great thing about horse racing is that another race is usually only moments away. I like to bet primarily on stakes racing, so Saturday and Sunday are the two most important days of the week for me from a handicapping standpoint.

This week I have identified two races that are playable. They are the Autumn Stakes at Woodbine, and the Hollywood Turf Cup at Hollywood Park. Let’s take a look!

Autumn Stakes (Race 8 @ Woodbine on Saturday)

Smart Bid (6-1) I’ve watched this horse run for years, and he is quite a good one. He made a long overdue 2010 debut at Keeneland where he finished third with a wide trip as the favorite on October 17. I actually bet the winner in that race, and I didn’t expect Smart Bid to be ready just yet.  The second place finisher from that race has returned to win.

With a race under his belt we can expect him to be much more formidable. The son of Smart Strike has enough tactical speed for jockey Anna Napravnik to place him wherever she pleases, but I expect to see him coming from behind due to an excess of speed in this race. If he runs like he is capable of doing I expect him to leave the competition in his dust, but there is always the risk that he isn’t the same horse. The price is nice at 6-1.

Hollywood Turf Cup (Race 8 @ Hollywood on Saturday)

Treat Gently (?) This mare is shipping west for trainer Bill Mott after a solid 4th place finish behind Winchester in the Turf Invitational at Belmont Park. The daughter of Cape Cross will get Patrick Valenzuela on her back this time. P-Val is one of the best in the business and should work her out a better trip than she has been getting in recent races. The Juddmonte Farms mare loves the distance, and she picked a weak group of boys to try and grab a Grade 1 victory from. She’s going to be deadly turning for home.

Misremembered headlines Grade 2 Strub Stakes

Bob Baffert’s four-year-old colt Misremembered enters the Strub Stakes favored once again just as he was when the race was washed away last week. The son of Candy Ride is working well and posted a :59 3/5 H five furlong move on Monday. He was last seen running second behind the lone speed M One Rifle in the Grade 1 Malibu Stakes. He was beaten a neck by Blame in the Clark Handicap before that. He broke the track record while winning the Indiana Derby in his last win. The distance in this event will suit him well and he should be tough to knock off.

Rendezvous looks like a good upset candidate with Rafeal Bejarano in the irons. The colt was a victim of the track bias in his last start where he ran third the whole way in the Grade 2 San Fernando Stakes. He is a closer like his sire Victory Gallop, and the extra half of a furlong will go a long way to help his cause. His last win came by a nose in the Del Mar Derby on the turf. He seems capable of winning if he runs his race.

Smart Bid had me thinking he was a poser until he posted a strong second place finish behind Papa Clem last out in the San Fernando. He looks like the speed in this race, but distance may be a question. The last win for this Graham Motion trainee came on Breeders Cup day in the Damascus Stakes. His only time going this far came in the Santa Anita Derby where he was up the track. He may have been outclassed that day so I’ll give him another chance here. Mike Smith was quoted saying he learned things about the horse and he would love to ride him back after his last race. It wouldn’t be smart to ignore this son of Smart Strike.

Bill Mott has shipped Eagle Poise in from Woodbine for this race. The four-year-old son of Empire Maker was last seen finishing second behind Breeders Cup Marathon runner up Cloudy’s Knight in a minor stakes. He posted 4 wins from 11 starts last year and finished second 3 times.Distance is no problem for this colt, but I’m not sure if he is classy enough. Julien Leparoux’s riding style fits him very well. I’m not counting him out.

Massone, Viscount, Gallant, Son, Jeranimo, Acclamation, and Heavenly Wind round out the field. Who is your top selection for the Strub Stakes?

Misremembered looks to be favored in Strub Stakes

I can remember the first time I saw Misremembered race. It was in the Grade 3 Affirmed and he had to tackle a horse named Grazen. In the end Grazen was victorious, but only momentarily. I remember hearing Bob Baffert saying something along the lines of  “Today your going to find out why I’m a Hall of Fame trainer” before Misremembered’s next start in the Grade 2 Swaps, where Grazen was also entered. Misremembered won this time by 1 3/4 lengths after grabbing the early lead.

It’s been all good things since then for the son of Candy Ride. He will have a huge shot in the Strub Stakes after finishing third last out in the Malibu Stakes. He had a bad post in that race and got a horrid trip. This distance will suit him much better. He is going to be a tough horse to beat, but there are several nice runners in here capable of doing the job.

I had my doubts about Smart Bid, but he has looked very strong since winning the Damascus on Breeders Cup day. His last race was a second place finish behind Papa Clem in the San Fernando Stakes. I wasn’t sure if this was his preferred surface, but he stayed on strong in that race after relinquishing the lead. His pedigree says he should handle 9 furlongs, but his only attempt was in the Sham where he finished 6th. He is one to keep an eye on.

Eagle Poise figures to garner plenty of support shipping in from Woodbine for trainer Bill Mott and Juddmonte Farms. Julien Leparoux will get the mount. This colt rarely runs a bad race. His most recent try was a second behind Breeders Cup Marathon runner up Cloudy’s Knight. He is the x factor for this race.

Rendezvous ran third last out in the San Fernando after racing evenlythe entire way. Rafeal Bejarano will pilot the colt. He was probably a victim of track  bias last out and will run a better race here. The extra distance will work to his benefit. His last win came by a nose in the Grade 2 Del Mar Derby.

It seems like Massone always runs a good race, but can never seem to win. He may fix that problem in this race. He was last seen running third in the Sir Beaufort behind The Usual Q.T. under Garrett Gomez, but he will have Mike Smith in the irons for this race. The son of Menifee will need a fast pace to chase.

Square Eddie will give it a go after finishing out of the money in four consecutive races. He is a really nice horse and I’d like to see him get a win in allowance company before trying to tackle the big boys again. He probably doesn’t have much of a shot here, but he is one of my sentimental favorites.

Viscount, Gallant Son, Diferentkindagreat, and Heavenly Wind round out the field. Who do you like?

Video Preview of the 2009 Malibu Stakes featuring M One Rifle and Misremembered

I hope you enjoy the video, and as always I welcome any and all comments.

Selection: M One Rifle