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Kentucky Derby hopefuls set for split Southwest Stakes

February 20, 2012 By Leave a Comment
Junebugred

Junebugred

It is extremely rare to see a graded stakes event split into two races, but it has happened with the 2012 Southwest Stakes from Oaklawn Park. Both races are filled with solid Kentucky Derby contenders. Let’s break them down!

The first Southwest Stakes (Race 8 ) features last out Smarty Jones Stakes winner Junebugred. The lightly raced Corinthian colt dispatched a good field in that race and he has every right to move forward. Jockey Joe Bravo is back for trainer Steve Hobby. He will be firing from mid pack and could find himself on our Kentucky Derby Contenders list with a win here. I’ll make him my top selection at odds of 7/2.

Those looking to play a long shot should consider Laurie’s Rocket. The son of Bluegrass Cat was beaten two lengths while checking in fifth last out in the Smarty Jones. He is working very well since that race and gets a big jockey upgrade in the form of three time Kentucky Derby winner Calvin Borel. The colt projects to be double digit odds and that makes him an overlay.

The second Southwest Stakes (Race 9) will feature Breeders’ Cup Juvenile Sprint winner Secret Circle as a prohibitive favorite. The Bob Baffert trainee was last seen finishing second by a half length to Out of Bounds in the Sham Stakes. It was his first time going past six furlongs. He was defeated by a very good colt that day and I fully expect him to rebound with a win under Rafeal Bejarano.

If an upset is going to happen, it will come from Cyber Secret. Kentucky Derby winning trainer Lynn Whiting sends this one out third off the shelf with Channing Hill in the irons. He was last seen taking an allowance field wire to wire while earning an exceptional 100 BRISnet figure. Look for him to fire from off the pace.

You can bet this race at Twinspires.com where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!

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Kentucky Derby Contenders: Archarcharch

April 18, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Archarcharch (Arch x Woodman’s Dancer by Woodman)

Trainer: William Fires

Jockey: Jon Court

**Click the link to find out how to get our Kentucky Derby Picks**

Arch won 5 of his 7 races including the 1998 Super Derby. He retired with earnings of $480,990. Although it was a short career Arch’s was a respectable one. However, his career doesn’t even begin to compare to that of his latest star progeny, Blame and Archarcharch. The former crossed the line first in the 2010 Breeders Cup Classic and the latter is after a race even bigger than that one; the Kentucky Derby.

I knew Archarcharch was going to be something special after watching him win the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds in his second start. He only beat three other horses, but he closed very strongly at a distance which he isn’t best suited to run. Short fields are typically won by the horse with early speed so the Sugar Bowl was definitely an indicator that this colt had potential.

Archarcharch’s next start came in the Smarty Jones Stakes where he flopped as the favorite, finishing a well beaten fourth after vying for the early lead. That race can be forgiven as the colt was running against a bias and trying a running style that wasn’t best for him. Knowing this I played him at 14-1 in his start which was a win the Southwest Stakes. He had a wide trip in that one, but it didn’t keep him from winning as he was clear by length from runner up J P’s Gusto at the wire.

The next start for Archarcharch came in the Rebel Stakes. This race was his first around two turns and he faced a monster named The Factor. The free wheeling Bob Baffert trainee made the front end and kept on going. Court’s colt was beaten a neck for second by Caleb’s Posse, but stayed on nicely in the latter stages of the race. He was at a disadvantage again here because The Factor was lone speed and this forced Archarcharch to be taken out of his game which is closing from midpack to well back. He took up a close spot early on and stayed there most of the way.

We really got to see Archarcharch come to life in the Arkansas Derby where he once again assumed a spot near the back of the pack. Closing into strong internal fractions of :22, :46 2/5, 1:11 1/5 and 1:36 the colt sprung into action mid way through the stretch to seize command of the race before holding off a late charging Nehro. He posted a strong 98 Beyer Speed Figure while beating perhaps the best prep field this year.

Fans of Archarcharch have plenty to be excited about as we move closer to the Run for the Roses.  The colt has is in excellent hands and possesses a running style that will be advantageous for him. The pace is prone to breaking down in the Kentucky Derby and closers almost always do well. The Oaklawn surface is very similar to that of Churchill Downs and as a two time winner at Oaklawn we know he will have no problems taking to the track at Churchill Downs and running the same type of race.

It has been clear to me all along that the goal for the connections is to have their colt peaking in the Kentucky Derby. Archarcharch is well bred, strong, fast, gritty and determined. All of those qualities combined with the expertise of trainer William Fires and jockey Jon Court will make him tough to hold off in the stretch at a great price.

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Archarcharch ($31) wins Southwest Stakes as our top selection

February 21, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Southwest Stakes went exactly as we hoped it would. Archarcharch took back just a tad after vying for the lead in the Smarty Jones Stakes and ranged up to the lead turning for home. After that he was able to hold off 6-5 favorite J.P.’s Gusto in the stretch by a safe margin of just over a length. The price was exceptional as he returned $31 to win as our top pick. This was surprising given the fact that he was 4/5 in his last race against a field that was only slightly weaker than this one.

I’m very happy for jockey Jon Court. The old veteran is the classiest jockey in the entire country. It looks like this could be his Kentucky Derby horse. Archarcharch is a son of Arch, sire of 2010 Breeders Cup Classic winner, Blame. Archarcharch was a big time buzz horse after he broke his maiden in the Sugar Bowl Stakes at Fair Grounds. I can’t believe everyone totally abandoned him because of just a single bad race. A bad race in which he was running against a very strong track bias I might add.

This race is a perfect example of something that has served me well in horse racing handicapping. People are short sighted. They are only worried about what a horse has done lately. Sometimes we have to look past that. My dad always told me that when everyone else gets off a horse that is usually the time to get on. When everyone thinks a horse can’t lose that is the time to bet against. Today proved that right.

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2011 Southwest Stakes Preview

February 21, 2011 By 2 Comments

Oaklawn Park has been a hot bed for Kentucky Derby contenders in recent years. Their prep races have produced names like Smarty Jones, Afleet Alex, Curlin, Lawyer Ron and many more. The first prep is the Southwest Stakes and it will be contested on today at the distance of one mile. Let’s take a look at some of the contenders.

Caleb’s Posse- The rail horse won the Smarty Jones last out after failing to fire as the 4/5 favorite in the $250k Springboard Mile at Remington. This two turn mile seems right up his alley. Look for him to come off the pace.

Ghost Is Clear- Normally, I might just pass by this colt. However, in the barn of Michael Maker he could be deadly. The son of Ghostzapper finally woke up last time out to win by 7 lengths against FG maidens. The race was six panels. Against him to go two extra furlongs and two turns could be a bit much. Keep any eye on him though as the Maker  barn is quite dangerous.

Grant Jack- Brett Calhoun trainee is back after fading as the favorite in the Smarty Jones. Before that he won the aforementioned Springboard Mile. I like the bullet 5 furlong move since his last race. Being on the lead in the Smarty Jones was bad news for him as all the speed was dying that day. He should recover nicely here. 15-1 is a big price on a Calhoun horse and he is worth including on exotics for that reason alone.

J.P.’s Gusto- Winner of the Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity has changed barns in hopes of making it to the Kentucky Derby. This will be his second start on dirt and I’m not sure he will like it. The price is much too short at 9/5. I would toss him. There are too many good horses in here to take a short price.

Archarchach- I like this horse as my top pick. His odds are great at 10-1. He didn’t fire last out in the Smarty Jones, but before that he won the Sugar Bowl going away by 1 3/4 lengths at Fair Grounds. He pressed the pace in the Smarty Jones and as I said before speed was dying that day. Running against the bias never helps. The son of Arch has too much talent not to compete for trainer William Fires and jockey Jon Court.

Yankee Passion- Brereton Jones owned and Larry Jones trained colt won easy over this track going 6 furlongs last out. That was his first start his August. I love the 1:01 B 1/44 five furlong bullet he fired last week.  Jockey Gabriel Saez should work out a nice trip just off the pace. He is very live at 8-1 and I would include him on all exotic wagers.

Elite Alex- This Tim Ritchey trainee is the buzz horse. Lots of people like the son of Afleet Alex based on his second place finish last out over this track. He had a very poor trip and only missed by a head. This will be just his third start. While I think he has a shot, there are too many good horses for me to take 4-1 on him. Look for Calvin Borel to work out a better trip this time.

Who do you like in the Southwest Stakes? I will be using Archarcharch, Grant Jack and Yankee Passion on my Pick 4 ticket.

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Conveyance seeks to stay perfect in the Southwest Stakes

February 14, 2010 By Leave a Comment

It seems that every race I’m talking about lately is led by a fast Bob Baffert three-year-old. I don’t know if the Hall of Fame trainer has ever had as many good young colts as he does right now. He is sending out Conveyance in the Southwest Stakes which is raced at 1 mile over the dirt at Oaklawn Park. The son of Indian Charlie is a perfect three for three and was last seen taking the Grade 3 San Rafael Stakes. The first three finishers from that race will contest this event. Conveyance showed he can take off the lead when he won last out after being passed on the lead. All three of his wins have come on synthetic surfaces. It will be interesting to see how he responds to dirt.

Bob Baffert isn’t the only master in this race. D Wayne Lukas will send out Grade 1 winner Dublin for the first time since he finished seventh in the Grade 3 Iroquois Stakes as the even money favorite. He is likely to get a lot of support at the windows. The son of Afleet Alex is working well and will have TJ Thompson in the irons for the first time. If he runs well in this race it is likely that Lukas will target the Rebel for his next start.

Dryfly and Pleasant Storm both looked strong last out when finishing 1-2 respectively in the Smarty Jones Stakes. Dryfly went wire to wire for owner Charles Cella who also owns Oaklawn Park. He might catch a speed duel if Garrett Gomez insists on taking Conveyance to the lead. Pleasent Storm closed from way out to be second in that race. If a speed duel develops he would be the primary beneficiary. Both colts have a strong case to win the Southwest Stakes.

Mission Impazible looked very strong when racing for the first time since April when he finished a close second in an allowance race at Gulfstream Park. It appears that he has enough speed to be close if needed but the jockey may prefer to keep him midpack. The son of Unbridled’s Song looks fresh for a run at the Triple Crown, but he has to run huge in this race to get his foot in the door.

Kitty’s Turn, Cardiff Giant, Domonation, Crider, and Cool Bullet round out the field. Who do you like in the Southwest Stakes? Click here for information on how to get my picks and plays. My selections won 4 of 6 races over the weekend. Don’t miss out!

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