I'll Have Another

Bodemeister seemingly had the 2012 Kentucky Derby in his pocket turning for home under the Twin Spires, but it was I’ll Have Another who rallied down the lane to register the 1 ½ length score. It was a neck back to the hard charging Dullahan and ¾ of a length behind that one was Went The Day Well.

The top four finishers have exited the race in stellar condition and all except for Dullahan appear ready to tackle the Preakness Stakes on May 19. Other probables for the Preakness that are exiting the Derby include Creative Cause, Liaison, Hansen and Optimizer.

New shooters for the Preakness include Canonero II Stakes 1-2 finishers Pretension and Brimstone Island, 1-2 Derby Trial Stakes finishers Hierro and Paynter, Jerome Stakes winner The Lumber Guy and Arkansas Derby fourth place finisher Cozetti.

Mario Gutierrez & I’ll Have Another

This time last year jockey Mario Gutierrez was riding at Hastings in Canada’s British Columbia. Now, he is a Kentucky Derby winning jockey. Click here to read more about Gutierrez.

I’ll Have Another is a magnificent horse, but he largely won the Kentucky Derby because of a perfectly executed ride by Gutierrez. He had the horse in the perfect spot and didn’t lose much ground the entire way.

Equally important, he wasn’t stopped or impeded the entire way. Often times the Kentucky Derby is won by the best horse that gets the best trip. That is to take nothing away from this colt though. I’ll Have Another is beautifully bred and fresh; that means he will have at least a fighting chance to win the Triple Crown.

Team O’Neill  & J Paul Reddam

I remember back in 2008 when trainer Doug O’Neill and owner Paul Reddam hooked up to win the Breeders’ Futurity at Keeneland with a talented colt named Square Eddie. They had brought the Canadian bred colt home from England where he had been racing after being sold for $200k at the Keeneland September Sale.

He was dismissed at odds of 10-1, but Reddam and O’Neill knew what they had with the son of Smart Strike. They even referred to him as “Baby Curlin” in honor of the reigning Horse of the Year that was by the same sire. This is just one of several examples of success O’Neill and Reddam have had together.

Now they are Kentucky Derby winners. It’s great to see a group like this take the most important race in the world. I’ve always been a fan of Doug O’Neill as he trained one of my favorite horses, Lava Man. I wish them the best of luck moving forward and would love to see them bring home the Triple Crown.

Mike Smith’s ride

Many take issue with Smith allowing Bodemeister to run off to the lead and set grueling fractions of :45.39 and 1:09.80. His charge entered the stretch with a three length lead and almost stole the race on the front end.

Detractors say he should have tucked in behind Trinniberg and waited to make a move. While that may have produced a better result, there is really no way to know for sure. Smith thought he had the best horse, laid his cards down the table, and came up just a little short. I cant criticize him; he rode the colt brilliantly.

Bodemeister is probably the best horse of his generation and sadly he entered the race a bit short on experience. If he can run the same race in the Preakness then he will likely win that race.

Union Rags just isn’t that good

We screamed it from the rooftops before this race and we were right. Union Rags just isn’t a very fast horse. He entered the Kentucky Derby as perhaps the sixth or seventh fastest horse in the race and that’s about how he ran as he ended up finishing seventh.

Many will point to a bad ride from Julien Leparoux. It wasn’t the greatest ride ever, but we must remember that he was pinched at the beginning and from the inside he really had no chance to position the horse.

Let’s not judge rider or horse based on a single race. Even with that said, I still feel Union Rags is rated much too highly. I’m not saying he wont come back and win a big race or two, but he wasn’t among the top 3 or 4 sophomores before the Triple Crown and he wont be when it ends.

The connections will point to the Belmont Stakes, a race where I expect the colt to struggle once more. A son of Dixie Union going 12 furlongs? Yea; good luck with that.

Horse to watch? Went The Day Well

For as much deserved hype as Bodemeister is getting, Went The Day Well ran equally well. Take a look at what John Velazquez had to say about his trip.

JOHN VELAZQUEZ (Went the Day Well, fourth) – “We didn’t break out of there well and it was screwed up from there on. I was actually just beating Julien (Leparoux, Union Rags) into the first turn, so that’s how far back we were. The horse next to me clipped heels coming out of the gate, so now I’ve got to steady and go inside of him. We go to the first turn and he gets pushed over and I have to steady again. Now I’m far back with Julien. Now I have to go around the horse in the first turn, got outrun three-wide, went back to the inside, and I got a good trip from there, but I was so far back I couldn’t make up that much ground, no way, not on this kind of track the way it is today.”

Alpha and Hansen can’t handle big crowds

Not yet, anyway. Both colts were quite worked up before the Kentucky Derby and likely lost all chance to win because of it. Hansen ended up ninth and Alpha was twelfth. The latter is going to get a little time off. The Belmont Stakes might be a logical spot for him. With his great stamina pedigree he would have a big shot of winning in that spot. Meanwhile, trainer Michael Maker and owner Kendall Hansen will make a decision on whether or not to send Hansen to the Preakness by the end of this week.

The 2012 Kentucky Derby has re-energized my passion for the Triple Crown. I have thought all along that this is the deepest and most contentious group of sophomores we have seen since 2007 and they proved me right. I look forward to watching the feats of speed that this group is sure to display in the Preakness and Belmont Stakes.

Good horse betting races have been sparse this year, but it looks like we have a great one lined up for Saturday at Gulfstream Park in the form of the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. Last years edition of the 39 year old race was taken by Quality Road. The then four-year-old colt smashed the competition by over 10 lengths! Notable winners of the Donn include Forego, Foolish Pleasure, Pistols and Roses, Cigar, Skip Away, Medaglia d’Oro, Saint Liam and last but not least, Invasor. Let’s take a look at this years field!

#1 I Want Revenge – It seems like an eternity has passed since this son of Stephen Got Even crushed the field to take the Gotham Stakes and then overcome big time trouble to win the Wood Memorial. After taking the Wood he missed significant time due to injury. His next race came over a year later in the Suburban Handicap where he was third beaten four lengths by the front running Haynesfield. After that he was also third in the Iselin at Monmouth. Ramon Dominguez will ride for the first time. It should be interesting to see how much speed he shows. Ultimately, this is a tough field and he is entering off a long rest so that makes him an outsider. On his best day he is the best horse in this race though!

#2  Hear Ye Hear Ye – He hasn’t got a prayer of winning. Maybe he could run fourth by some fluke, but I doubt it.

#3 Morning Line – Zabeel Racing now co-owns this son of Tiznow with Thoroughbred Legends. The $700k auction purchase (separate from Zabeel) won the Pennsylvania Derby last year before running second by a head in the Breeders Cup Dirt Mile. He was last seen finishing third in the Grade 3 Hal’s Hopes after setting the pace. He will be on the lead, but could catch pressure from Hear Ye Hear Ye, I Want Revenge, Square Eddie and Rule.  I don’t envision that being a problem. However, I do see the distance troubling him. Even though he won the Pennsylvania Derby at this distance, I just don’t think this horse is best when routing. He is a miler and will prove that in the final furlong of the race.

#4 Giant Oak – After watching the Clark Handicap, I had no idea how he ran so well. In retrospect, this is an improving horse. In his last four races he owns a win via DQ in the Clark and a second in two Grade 3 races. Still, I’m very skeptical about him. I’ve never thought he was very good and its hard to shake that thought once its planted. The pace set up will work in his favor as he will be rolling late. I won’t be surprised if the son of Giant’s Causeway checks in third or fourth.

#5 Eldaafer – The ice cold Edgar Prado picks up the mount on this gelded son of AP Indy who was last seen winning the Breeders Cup Marathon three months ago. He hasn’t seen a field this tough in his career despite winning a race that is Breeders Cup in name, but not in competition. Distance won’t be a problem, but when all is said and done this guy is probably the 6th or 7th best horse in the race. Long shot at best in my humble opinion.

#6 Fly Down – He just keeps on coming doesn’t he? The Nick Zito trainee finished third in the Breeders Cup Classic last out after just getting past fourth place finisher Lookin At Lucky. Before that race he was beaten 6 lengths in the Jockey Club Gold Cup by Haynesfield. He put in excellent efforts to be second by a nose in the Travers and second in the Belmont Stakes last year. He knows how to win races as he proved by taking the Dwyer by an emphatic six lengths.  Julien Leparoux will get the mount for the second time. He guided him to his third place finish in the Classic last out. Fly Down must concede at least 3 pounds to every horse in the race. He is working well, but it is advisable to take a shot against him in his first outing of the year.

#7 Square Eddie – WOW, what a run he put together in his first race since 2009 last out when he took an allowance event by 3 1/4 lengths. Study duty can wait a little longer. Trainer Doug O’Neill is excited about his chances as is jockey Corey Nakatani. I’ll take a wait and see approach. The surface he won on at Santa Anita is very hard to gauge right now. Also if he is so good why isn’t Joel Rosario here after winning on him last out? I could see Square Eddie running up the track or winning. Nothing he does will surprise me. Having said that I will pass and go with a more reliable horse.

#8 Rule - Todd Pletcher’s son of Roman Ruler rated nicely in his first try since the Florida Derby last out when jockey JJ Castellano guided him to a second place finish in the Hal’s Hope. He has excellent pedigree as his dam is half to Kentucky Derby winner Funny Cide. It will be interesting to see how close to the pace he is in this spot. He is working like a monster and it appears he hasn’t lost any of the talent he showed at the ages of two and three. I’d like to see him sit right behind the speed and pounce in his second try at 9 furlongs.

#9 Ron The Greek – Lezcano will get the call here on a horse who put together a nice runner up effort in optional claiming company last out. In that race he rallied from 14 lengths back to finish just 1 3/4 lengths behind stakes winning Our Dark Knight. If things get really hectic on the front end, which they could, Ron The Greek will be the prime beneficiary. The colt is classy enough to win this, but he will need help from the pace setters.

I’m going to make Rule my top selection to win the Grade 1 Donn Handicap. He showed a new dimension when he rallied from 5th last out and I think that will really work to his benefit here. I expect the jockey to lay right off the pace, go by Morning Line, and hold off the late charges from the closers. Other than Rule, I’m interested to see how I Want Revenge performs. I might take a flyer on him at a price, but he will probably need a race or two to get in gear. He might be able to find a spot in the exacta, trifecta, or superfecta. I’m really hoping he returns to top form.

Who do you like in the 39th renewal of the Donn Handicap from Gulfstream Park? Leave a comment and let your voice be heard!

I remember getting a call from a friend at the Daily Racing Form back in 2008. We had come to know one another from a previous job we shared. The reason for her call was to discuss the Grade 1 Lanes End Breeders Futurity.

She had recently started her job with the DRF back then, and a lot of her time was spent at Keeneland. She wanted to know who I liked in the big baby race that weekend. I told her I was very fond of a horse shipping across the pond. That horse was Square Eddie.

Square Eddie won the Grade 1 Lanes End Breeders Futurity with Rafael Bejarano aboard for trainer Doug O’Neill.  If memory serves, he made a big move around the turn and that was all she wrote. Fans went so far as to call the son of Smart Strike “Baby Curlin”. He followed up on that impressive run with a second in the Breeders Cup Juvenile.

Following the Juvenile he was put up and when he returned suffered a minor injury. He hasn’t won since his triumph at Keeneland. In fact, he hasn’t been better than fifth since finishing third in the Lexington Stakes. After going through a suspensory injury following a poor showing in the Malibu Stakes the connections retired him to stud where he had a success rate of 38 from 40 mares.

So why are they bringing him back to the track after the regally bred colt did so well at stud? Your guess is as good as mine. All I know is that I hope he can return to his winning ways, or head back to the shed where he probably belongs anyway.

2008 and 2009 Morvich Handicap winner California Flag is expected to give the Turf Sprint another try after finishing 10th last year. He has raced only twice this year and should be very fresh according to trainer Brian Koriner. The gray gelding has excellent early zip, but will need things to be less hectic on the front end this time around. He has an advantage over many in the race because he has won several times over this unique down hill turf course. Jockey Joe Talamo could get his first Breeders Cup victory on California Flag if things play out right for him.

Silver Timber is expected to compete in the Breeders Cup Turf Sprint after winning the Woodford last out over Mr Nightlinger. The gelding was claimed for $25k earlier this year by owner Michael Dubb and trainer Chad Brown. The trainer was quoted saying that Silver Timber has never looked as good as he did in his last work. Brown won the Breeders Cup Juvenile Fillies Turf last year with Maram.

Cannonball will certainly be a force for trainer Wes Ward. The four-year-old gelded son of Catienus was runner up in a Group 1 race at Royal Ascot this summer. His last trip to the track was a victory in a NY bred stakes race. He is a consistent horse and lightly raced this year. If he brings the race that earned him second in England he will have a huge shot at becoming a Breeders Cup winner.

Defending champ Desert Code will probably get plenty of support at the windows despite finishing poorly in the Morvich Handicap last out. He had a brutally fast pace to run at when he won last year, and unless something like that happens again I don’t know if he can win this race. It seems like he has lost a step in his last few races.

Other interesting contenders include Strike the Deal, Diamondrella, Get Funky, Gotta Have Her, and Square Eddie. A full list of pre entries can be found by clicking here.