February 8, 2012

2011 Vanity Handicap Preview

The best West Coast fillies and mares do battle in the Grade 1 Vanity Handicap this Saturday at Hollywood Park. Six will go a mile & one-eighth over the Cushion Track, with the winner adding a Grade 1 win to their resume. For the first time in four years there will be a new winner in this race, as the future hall-of-famer and back-to-back-to-back winner Zenyatta is off on the farm in Kentucky. This group doesn’t have a stand-out, but is a solid group. This race will help determine who the West Coast’s top female is.

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#1 Miss Match won the Grade 1 Santa Margarita at Santa Anita two starts back, then ran a distant fourth in the Apple Blossom Handicap at Oaklawn Park, well behind Switch. She has a solid 6-2-1-0 record (and one of only two with a win) at the distance . She has worked steadily the last few weeks, and will be trying to roll from the back of the pack. She has had only one race over any type of synthetic surface, a win over the Tapeta at Golden Gate. Her musical chair jockeys continue as Joe Talamo will be aboard for the first time.

#2 St Trinians finished first in the Milady H. last time out, but was disqualified for interference and DQ’d to fourth. The infraction cost Talamo the ride on her, and leading SoCal jockey Rafael Bejarano takes over. She has had three steady works since, but is only 2-0-1-0 at this distance. She figures to be sitting mid-pack and will make her move at the top of the lane. It has been 16 months since her last win, and one has to wonder if she is the best in SoCal, since she was defeated by both Miss Match and Switch in March.

# 3 American Story figures to be on the lead, even with the removal of blinkers from her. She has slowly climbed the class ladder, finishing 3rd (moved up to 2nd via DQ) in the Milady. This will be the furthest she has ever gone and one has to wonder if she will handle the distance, especially with her losing ground in each race at 1m 1/16ths. She has had two typical swift Baffert works since her last race. While it is hard to throw out a Baffert-trainee, especially one who has never been out of the exacta, she just may not be this good.

#4 Switch has had a steady diet of Grade one races, never being out of the exacta. But she has not won a route race since September, seven starts ago. She has a clear lead in the stretch two races back in the Santa Margarita, only to be collared by Miss Match in the final strides. She then finished second to national division lead Harve De Grace in the Apple Blossom. She figures to be just off of American Story during the race. She has run well off a similar freshening in the past, and her work pattern has been solid. The main knock against her is that this distance may be just further than she wants to go. At a short price, she looks like a play against.

#5 She’s Cheeky was interfered with in the Milady, and was moved up to third. While she has most of her success around one turn, she is bred to go two turns. She has settled for minor awards in the past more often than not, with eleven other placings to go with her three wins. She could end up on the lead with the lack of other pace in the race. She has two atypically fast works for her connections, and could be sitting on a big one. She could once again add value for the trifecta.

#6 Blind Luck returns to SoCal after winning the La Troienne on the Kentucky Oaks undercard. She has run her typical late-closing race ever single time this year, but only won once. She has worked solidly in the interim for her recently elected Hall of Fame trainer Jerry Hollendorfer. Blind Luck has never been out of the exacta at the distance. She is the high weight in the field, giving three lbs. to Switch all the way up to 9 lbs. to She’s Cheeky. With the lack of the pace in the race, she could struggle if she falls too far back.

 

The Vanity offers a compact but talented field of six females, all looking to notch a grade one race win. With the lack of pace, placing and horses who have shown an extended kick are likely to win. St. Trinians is the pick as she is in good form, will be get to the front before the favorite, Blind Luck, is able to do so.

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Hot Handicapping weekend topped by Caracortado ($11) in the Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis Stakes

Those who purchased my selections this weekend were rewarded when I correctly picked the winner in 5 of 7 races. I’m hoping to continue handicapping hotly this weekend and I am looking forward to all of the stakes action! Let’s examine the races where I was successful.

Robert B. Lewis Stakes: Caracortado ($11)- I had a REALLY good feeling about this gelding. He had never failed in four tries and had already proved he could go two turns whereas the favorite had not done so. Paul Atkinson gave him a great ride and he won fairly easily. Trainer Michael Machowsky is pointing him to the San Felipe Stakes where he could meet up with Lookin at Lucky in a matchup akin to David and Goliath.

San Vicente Stakes: Sidney’s Candy ($6.60)- I believed this colt would trounce all comers in this race and he did so. He lived up to the form he showed over the summer at Del Mar. He won this race quite easily and has to be the early favorite for the Santa Anita Derby. He looked scary good and I’m really looking forward to seeing more of him.

Santa Maria Handicap: St Trinians ($4.60)- I believed that Life Is Sweet freaked when she won the Breeders Cup Ladies Classic due to the fast pace set by Careless Jewel. While she ran second, I was right to believe she couldn’t handle my top selection St Trinians who improved her record in the US to a perfect four for four. Mike Mitchell wants her next start to come in the Santa Anita Handicap. I may support her there also depending on the field!

Gulfstream Park Sprint Championship: Munnings ($4)- It seems that all this son of Speighstown really needed was a fast track. Trainer Todd Pletcher wants to target a Grade 1 race for his next start. If the track is fast he will have a heck of a chance to win.

Las Virgenes Stakes: Blind Luck ($2.40)- Who didn’t have this filly? She is incredibly fast although she narrowly got up after a perfectly timed ride by Rafeal Bejarano. I advised bettors to sit this race out because she looked overwhelmingly good, but wasn’t worth a bet at such a short price. Like many of the other previously listed horses, I can’t wait to see more of her!

This weekends lineup includes:

Fountain of Youth Stakes

Risen Star Stakes

Hutcheson Stakes

El Camino Real Derby

Mineshaft Handicap

San Carlos Handicap

San Luis Obispo Handicap