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Sabercat ($18) easy victor in Delta Jackpot as Graded Stakes top pick

November 19, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Sabecat wins the Delta Jackpot

The eyes of Steve Asmussen and Winchell Thoroughbreds are affixed on the Kentucky Derby after their colt Sabercat clobbered the competition to win the $1 million Delta Jackpot from Delta Downs.

The field of the Kentucky Derby is limited to 20 starters and entrance is based on graded stakes earnings. After grabbing a winner’s share of $600k in this Grade III event, Sabercat is virtually guaranteed a spot in the Run for the Roses.

With the problem of earnings off the table, the connections will merely focus on mapping the best path and hoping for two things. The first, that the colt is indeed as good as he looked. The second, that he can stay healthy.

Sabercat was my top pick to win the Jackpot. I was very impressed with him after reviewing footage of race prior to this, the Garden State Stakes.

Obviously Drill is a wonderful colt, but the price is going to be unacceptable. I like Sabercat (Bluegrass Cat x Miner’s Blessing by Forty Niner) just as much and I’m going to get a much better price on him. The Asmussen trainee was last seen exploding to a big victory in the Garden State Stakes at Monmouth. He sat right off the pace and annihilated the field when Angel Serpa asked him for run. I’m hoping for a similar trip in this race under Gerard Melancon.

 

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2011 Jersey Shore Stakes betting preview

July 2, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 3 Jersey Shore Stakes is a six furlong sprint for three-year-olds at Monmouth Park on July 3. A very strong field of seven colts and geldings will compete for the $90,000 winners share of the $150,000 purse.

Typically a field with only seven horses won’t provide much betting value, but when you get a race like this where any of them can win it is certainly a race worth playing. Let’s take a look at the field.

Zero Rate Policy (Trippi x Unititled Song by Unbridled’s Song) Speedster took the Rumson last out by an easy 4 3/4 lengths for trainer Terri Pompay. He is a perfect two for two at Monmouth and should be gunning for the lead from the rail. Carlos Marquez has got a big shot on this gelding. So far he has done everything asked of him, but this will be the acid test. He won’t lack backers at 3-1.

Parent’s Honor (Elusive Quality x Dami by Dynaformer) Seems to have found his calling in the sprint division after an easy seven length romp in an optional claimer at Delaware last out. It’s hard to go against trainer Anthony Dutrow who is a perfect four for four at Monmouth this meet. Jockey Jeremy Rose knows his way around a horse too. This is a horse I might consider in another race, but at 4-1 in this highly competitive event I will take a pass.

C J Russell (El Corredor x Miss Gibson County by Winrightt) His debut was smashing when he won going this distance at Churchill Downs. He looked even better second time out when cruising for a 1 1/4 length win over the highly regarded Cornpiper. I really like his chances to be a multiple graded winner, but I’m not sure it will start here. The pace will be contentious and I have a feeling he gets burned up under jockey Alan Garcia.

Royal Currier (Red Bullet x Top Of The League by Lite The Fuse) Gelding won his turf debut last out and before that was a close second to Little Drama at Parx. He likes the surface here at Monmouth, but the Patracia Farro trainee looks to be in deep at 8-1. Angel Serpa gets the call to ride.

Flashpoint (Pomeroy x Two Punch Lil by Two Punch) His grand sire passed away last week and perhaps the scary fast colt got his gray color from him. He was last seen backing up badly in the Preakness. That shouldnt bother anyone though as it was clearly out of his range. He looked like a freak in both of his sprint races and if that form comes back he will be tough to topple at 5-2 for trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Cornelio Velasquez.

Cal Nation (Distorted Humor x She’s A Winner by A.P. Indy) Ran to his low odds last out when taking an allowance race by 5 1/2 lengths going this distance at Belmont. Before that he failed as the favorite in the Jerome where he ended up a well beaten eighth. He gets 6 pounds on the favorite. His debut win by seven lengths was epic. It’s hard to ignore a Todd Pletcher horse at 5-1, especially considering how good this colt could be. Chris Decarlo gets the ride.

Chipshot (Peace Rules x Chispiski by Appealing Skier) Ran huge to be second to Vengeful Wildcat last out in the Chick Lang. On his best day he can compete here, but winning will be tough. Steve Asmussen trains and Elvis Trujillo will be in the irons.

120x90 - Capture the Throne

My top pick to win the Jersey Shore is Cal Nation. He is a horse with a lot of potential that I can envision whipping this field or even running fourth. With so much quality stacked in this race nothing will shock me. With this colt I get a good price at 5-1 and I’m backing ace trainer Todd Pletcher in a stakes race. That’s never a bad move.

Playing $20 to win on him over at TVG will earn the chance for a VIP track experience at a place like Del Mar, Monmouth or Woodbine. The best part? All expenses are handled by TVG. This is on top of a generous sign up bonus. What are you waiting for? Check them out by clicking the picture above or link in this post and bet Cal Nation in the Jersey Shore!

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Animal Kingdom and Mucho Macho Man prepare for Preakness as Nehro waits for Belmont

May 17, 2011 By Leave a Comment

All indications are that Kentucky Derby winner Animal Kingdom is ready to run a monster race in the Preakness this weekend. Check out what owner Barry Irwin had to say on Facebook yesterday.

Animal Kingdom galloped on a wet dirt track this morning and relished the going. We keep throwing curves at this guy and just keeps knocking the ball out of the park. He may not even be human!

The son of Leroidesanimaux has not and will not work before the Preakness. This is a good move as he is completely fit after going a mile and a quarter so recently. I’m really excited to find out if he is the real deal in the Preakness.

A colt that did have a work is Mucho Macho Man.I have to admit I was skeptical about Mucho Macho Man, but his last out effort to be third in the Kentucky Derby has really won me over. The big hulking colt has a ton of heart and is only going to get better from here on out. The late foal wont even “really” turn three until next month.

This morning he worked four furlongs in :49 1/5 with splits of 12 2/5 and 24 1/5 while galloping out five furlongs in 1:03 3/5. Reports say he was evenly the whole way and the exercise rider said he wanted to do more. Folks, this colt might be sitting on a huge race for the Preakness on Saturday.

One horse that could be sitting on a big one, but we will never know, is Nehro. The son of Mineshaft is doing exceptionally well by all reports, but his connections are going to wait for the Belmont Stakes. This is a wise move as the Preakness would be his fourth race in eight weeks.

Nehro’s trainer Steve Asmussen once quoted the old saying “You get paid for what you do, but you pay for what you do.” Racing him in the Preakness might be sacrificing his future even if he runs well. Look for him next out in the Belmont Stakes.

One of the best things about this years Kentucky Derby is that the best three horses ran 1-2-3. I love when that happens. Now let’s see what happens at Pimlico.

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Kentucky Derby Contenders: Nehro

April 22, 2011 By 3 Comments

Nehro (Mineshaft x The Administrator by Afleet)

Trainer: Steve Asmussen

Jockey: Corey Nakatani

*Click the link to find out how to get our Kentucky Derby Picks**

Even the most devout follower of the Kentucky Derby trail had no idea that this colt existed until February 21. On that day he closed from 11th and12 lengths back for a 4.5 length win in a maiden race at Oaklawn Park. Even after that one it was really hard to think he might have a shot at the Run for the Roses.

Then came the Louisiana Derby. Nehro was sent off at odds of 36-1 and stalked from third before moving for the kill. He finished second beaten a neck by Pants On Fire in the $1 million race. We all realized afterward that top trainer Steve Asmussen had the Zayat owned colt in there for a reason; Nehro can run really fast!

Without enough earnings to make the Derby the colt was forced to race again in the Arkansas Derby. Not to worry as he was lightly raced and probably needed another go anyway. In his fifth career trip to the track the colt came from the clouds to miss by a neck to Archarcharch. Jockey Corey Nakatani had him moving best of all in the late stages of the race and might have caught the winner with a bit more distance.

One of things I love about Nehro is that he is improving with each and every start. Two necks cost the connections the ability to go to Churchill Downs with the Louisiana Derby and Arkansas Derby winner. If that trend continues he will be scary good in the Kentucky Derby. It is important to find a colt that is going forward and not backward. Nehro is clearly on the way up.

The son of Mineshaft seems dynamic enough to be somewhat close to the pace, but he will do better dropping back. Jockey Corey Nakatani has never won the Roses, but he is a master nonetheless. He owns seven Breeders Cup wins as well as two Hollywood Gold Cup triumphs. He is very hungry for his first Kentucky Derby win as is Asmussen. Look for the rider nicknamed C-Nak to put in the try of his life in an attempt to get this one to the winners circle.

Nehro’s pedigree is going to be one of the best in the field this year. His sire, Mineshaft, was a multiple Grade 1 winner at route distance with victories in the Jockey Club Gold Cup and Woodward Stakes. Sons of Mineshaft include Greenwood Cup winner A U Miner, Florida Derby winner Dialed In, Travers runner up Fly Down and Hawthorne Gold Cup winner Redding Colliery.

The Adminstrator has proved to be an excellent broodmare with stakes winning progeny like Sweet Lips, winner of the Sunshine Millions Distaff and West Chester Handicap winner Saint Marden. Nehro’s pedigree and performance on the track tells us that he is going to handle the 10 furlongs distance with ease. To put it simply, this colt will run all day.

When trying to find a Kentucky Derby horse, handicappers often look for the horse with the most upside. With a strong pedigree and improvements in each of his last three races there is plenty of reason to think Nehro may be that horse.

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Regal Ransom & I Want Revenge top Suburban Handicap

July 1, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Click here for information on how to get my picks for this race.

The Grade 2 Suburban Handicap contested over 9 furlongs on the dirt for three-year-olds and upward has quite a strong field for its 2010 edition. 2009 Wood Memorial winner I Want Revenge is back for his first start since scratching as the morning line favorite in the Kentucky Derby on the day of the race. Regal Ransom, winner of the Grade 2 Super Derby, is back for his first start since setting the pace and fading in the Breeders Cup Classic back in November. It could be another and perhaps sharper horse that wins the Suburban Handicap though.

Haynesfield scored his third consecutive win and seventh win from ten career starts last out in his 2010 debut. The son of Speightstown has excellent tactical speed. He went wire to wire in his last score against allowance optional claiming company, but when he won the Grade 3 Discovery Handicap before that he sat in second most of the way before taking over in the stretch.

Perhaps the most impressive thing about Haynesfield is his ability to go a route of ground. He is two for two at the Suburban Handicap distance of 9 furlongs. Speightstown’s progeny are typically sprinters. Steve Asmussen and Ramon Dominguez are two of the best in racing at what they do. The top two in this race would be well advised not to ignore the New York bred Haynesfield. He holds a strong hand.

Racing for the first time since November won’t be a problem for Regal Ransom. He won first out going seven furlongs at Saratoga as a two-year-old. When he won the Super Derby he was racing for the first time in over four months. Not only has Regal Ransom shown the ability to run on rest in the past, but he is working up a storm. His last work was a :58 4/5 B five furlong move that was the second fastest from 23 works. Prior to that he worked six furlongs in 1:11 B and five furlongs in :58 2/5 B.

If the son of Distorted Humor is able to get loose on the lead he may gallop home. Don’t expect Ramon Dominguez and Haynesfield to let that happen though. Rick Dturow has entered the claimer Pictural to run on the lead with Regal Ransom as a rabbit. Regal Ransom may be classy enough to win even with a pressured pace. Alan Garcia rides for Bin Suror Saeed.

The fact that Joe Talamo saw fit to hop on a plane and pick up the mount on I Want Revenge is very encouraging. It may be that he is attached to the horse, but it may also be that I Want Revenge is ready to run a big race. Perhaps he is coming out of loyalty to IEAH. Regardless of why, I like that he will be here to pilot “his” colt. The son of Stephen Got Even is a perfect one for one at the distance of nine furlongs with his only race being a win with a troubled trip in the Wood Memorial.

I Want Revenge has more than enough speed to be forwardly placed, but he proved in the Wood that he also has the ability to close with a rush if that is needed. I expect Joe Talamo to take sit behind horses and make a move entering the stretch.  If I Want Revenge is ready to go he will be tough to hold off in the lane. Regardless of his performance in this race, if I Want Revenge can return to his 2009 form he will be a player in the older horse division.

Other contenders include Eldafeer and Convocation. The latter was last seen finishing fourth behind Quality Road in the Grade 1 Metropolitan Mile Handicap. I’m not sure he wants to go this far. Eldafeer was third with a wide trip last out in the Grade 2 Brooklyn Handicap. The gelded son of AP Indy could be an exotics factor, but I have a hard time believing he can win this race. Pictural and Unbridled Danger round out the field.

Who do you like? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

Click here for information on how to get my picks for this race.

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Awesome Act’s Excuse

May 9, 2010 By Leave a Comment

For the second time in two years I was puzzled as to why my pick in the Kentucky Derby couldn’t be found with a search warrant turning for home. In 2008 I ended up taking Friesan Fire who would be the favorite after the defection of several top runners. The colt clipped heels and bled throughout the race which eliminated his chances of winning. This year I took Awesome Act as my pick. I couldn’t believe he was nowhere around after a blistering pace.

As it turns out, the son of Awesome Again came out of the race lame. The meaning of the word lame in an equine sense is when a horse isn’t walking correctly. It can be caused by many different things. Awesome Act will have a nuclear scintigraphy scan at Rood & Riddle Equine Hospital in Lexington.

The colt is owned by Susan Roy in partnership with Vinery Stables. He shipped to the U.S. last year where he finished a close 4th in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. He returned to Great Britain for a spell and then won the Grade 3 Gotham Stakes in his first race back in the states. After that win he was a distant third behind Eskendereya in the Grade 1 Wood Memorial. Jeremy Noseda has trained the colt to this point in time, but he will be transferred to Steve Asmussen when he recovers from his injury.

I hope next year I am able to pick a colt that wins or loses with a clean shot. I don’t like to lose. Especially when the horse I pick didn’t really have a “clean chance” to win the race. Friesan Fire has returned to run some nice races since his incident in the Kentucky Derby. I hope and expect the same from Awesome Act.

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