May 22, 2012

Lookin At Lucky victorious in Preakness Stakes


Lookin At Lucky lived up to his name for the first time in a long time when he took the Grade 1 Preakness Stakes by 3/4 lengths under steady right hand urging from new jockey Martin Garcia. He dueled for a short while with long shot First Dude before kicking clear. First Dude held second place from a hard charging Jackson Bend. ‘Lucky gave trainer Bob Baffert his fifth Preakness winner. His others were Real Quiet, Silver Charm, Point Given, and War Emblem.

While ‘Lucky was able to redeem himself with a win, things didn’t go so well for Calvin Borel and the Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver. “My horse broke sharp, right where I wanted,” said Borel.  “I let the other horse go, and I was right behind him. We went 23-and-change and 46-and-change. He just wasn’t able to get there today. I will win a lot of other races with this horse. He’s a good one.”

Todd Pletcher made it clear that his colt would not go to Belmont to try the third leg of the Triple Crown. He also noted that the connections got the race they wanted; the Derby. ““I thought as well as First Dude hung in there that we were in a good spot.” said Pletcher. ” He was able to move himself right outside of (First Dude). It looked like the colt was relaxed. He was traveling well down the backside and you could tell that when he went to the far turn, he came up empty.”

As can be expected, Bob Baffert was extremely enthused over the win. Martin Garcia seemed thankful and happy, but he might not understand the magnitude of the win just yet. Garcia was a line cook just 5 years ago and knew nothing of horse racing until he started riding professionally in 2005.  If he hasn’t hit him yet, it will very soon!

“It’s just as exciting.  I know it’s been a few years.  I mean, this was a different kind of win,” said Baffert. ” This was more of a redemption win.  This horse is such a warrior.  He wants to win.  He tries so hard.  So I wanted to win it for the horse, you know, ’cause he tries so hard every time.  I mean, the Derby, he had that rough trip.  Santa Anita Derby, rough trip.  I didn’t want him to get hit.  But, you know, every time he had those rough trips, he came back.  He’s got a great mind.  He’s a cool horse.  He’s just a really great athlete.  I mean, he’s one of the best horses I’ve ever had.  It’s amazing.  He’s still a baby.  He’s so immature.  He’s not even three years old yet.  His birthday is May 27th.”

It’s unfortunate, but neither the Kentucky Derby winner, Super Saver, or the Preakness winner, Lookin At Lucky, will forge ahead to the Belmont Stakes. That race is likely to be headlined by Kentucky Derby second place finisher Ice Box and fellow Nick Zito trainee and Dwyer winner Fly Down.

Preakness Stakes Selections and Picks

Are you counting yet? It’s only 355 days until the Kentucky Derby. Between now and then two nearly as important races will be contested. Those races are the second and third jewels of the Triple Crown better known as the Preakness and Belmont Stakes. Gradedstakes.com will be here to help you handicap as always. Below are just a few of the winners we had on this years Derby trail.

  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($6.20)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 2 San Felipe Stakes ($9.60)
  • Sidney’s Candy in the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby ($9.60)
  • Caracortado in the Grade 2 Robert Lewis Stakes ($11.00)
  • Pleasant Prince in the Grade 1 Florida Derby ($26.40 to PLACE)

Our expert picks will be available for just $5.99. Those who purchase this years picks for the Preakness will get picks to WIN, Pick 3, Pick 4, Exacta, Trifecta, and Superfecta plays. We will provide complimentary picks for the Belmont Stakes if we don’t pick at least 3 winners, an exotic worth $250 or more for a $1 wager, or the winner of the Preakness. You haven’t got much to lose!

Included in this year’s package are picks for the following races:

  • Black-Eyed Susan Stakes
  • Preakness Stakes
  • Hirsch Jacobs Stakes
  • Dixie Stakes
  • William Donald Schaefer Stakes
  • Gallorette Handicap
  • Maryland Sprint Handicap

Challengers lining up to face Pletcher and Borel’s Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver


For the third time in four years Calvin Borel rocketed his mount to the front of the pack in the Kentucky Derby. In 2007 it was aboard juvenile champion Street Sense. He did it on super long shot Mine That Bird in 2009. This time it was on Super Saver. The Cajun jockey held three fingers to the sky after the race to signify these three horses.

Soon after he boldly stated that the son of Maria’s Mon would win the Triple Crown. Trainer Todd Pletcher said that Super Saver’s next race would come in the Preakness (shocking, right?). Calvin may believe he has the 12th Triple Crown winner of all time, but several challengers will line up to oppose him.

The first one that leaps out to me is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby runner up A Little Warm. He was very impressive stretching out in distance for the first time in that race. He appeared to be a sprinter, but he proved his doubters wrong by digging in and holding on for second after he came under attack early in the stretch run. If he can improve on that effort he would be dangerous in the Preakness. If Bob Baffert doesn’t send Conveyance his chances will be increased. Conveyance would likely burn him to a crisp on the lead.

I also like Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado. The gelded son of Cat Dreams has had excuses in his last to races. In the Grade 2 San Felipe he had no fractions to chase and Sidney’s Candy easily pulled the wire job. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he had to check sharply after the Gomez-Espinoza incident where Lookin at Lucky was slammed into the rail. If he goes to the Preakness and the fractions are sharp you can bet your ass he will come flying late. The only thing working against him is that Pimlico Racecourse favors speed.

The Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin at Lucky, would have a heck of a chance if Bob Baffert decides to send him. He has encountered plenty of trouble in his three-year-old campaign, but has handled it well. He rallied to win the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes after clipping heels. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he was unable to overcome being slammed into the rail, but still finished third. He put in a nice rally in the Derby but couldn’t overcome his rail post position. If Garrett Gomez can navigate a clean trip he will be loaded for bear turning for home and could mow them all down.

Others considering the race are Kentucky Derby third place finisher Paddy O’Prado. He is the definition of the “now” horse. He continues to improve with every start. Nick Zito and Bob LaPenta are toying with idea of starting Kentucky Derby runner up Ice Box in the Preakness, but will probably save him for the Belmont Stakes. Ice Box was easily the best colt in the Derby, but didn’t win because of an awful trip. Their other horse, Jackson Bend, is likely to go.

Other Kentucky Derby also rans’ considering the Preakness are Dublin, Make Music For Me, and Conveyance. New shooters include the Grade 3 Derby Trial first three finishers Hurricane Ike, Aikenite, and Pleasant Prince. Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby runner up Schoolyard Dreams and Grade 3 Illinois Derby fourth place finisher Turf Melody wrap up the list of potential challengers. Super Saver will undoubtedly be in with a huge shot, but these horses won’t make it easy on him.

Who is your early pick for the Preakness? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

Kentucky Derby Approaching May 1


The First Saturday in May is rapidly drawing closer. The Kentucky Derby took a hit this weekend when probable favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn from consideration after trainer Todd Pletcher discovered a swollen leg. His defection after winning the Wood Memorial and as the favorite follows I Want Revenge who was  also going to be the favorite after winning the Wood Memorial in 2009. The defection of Eskendereya makes way for the Bob Baffert trained juvenile champion Lookin at Lucky to become the new favorite.

Todd Pletcher’s best hope for ending his 0-24 skid in the Run for the Roses may have been Eskendereya, but he still has plenty of bullets to fire. Among his entrants this year will be Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible, Sam Davis Stakes winner Rule, and Arkansas Derby runner up Super Saver. The filly Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, and Interactif are also potential chances for Todd Pletcher.

I feel sorry for jockey Johnny Velazquez. He lost Florida Derby winner Quality Road last year and now he has lost Eskendereya. It appears that he will get the mount on Devil May Care if Pletcher’s opts for the Kentucky Derby over the Kentucky Oaks. She is a big lanky filly that is blazing fast, but may not be ready for the Kentucky Derby. I’d like to see her in the Oaks.

This Kentucky Derby is wide open just like last year. Many of the top contenders have big question marks. The overall quality of the field seems sub par and could be average at best. I don’t think we have any chance of seeing a Triple Crown winner. The only horse I could see doing it would be Sidney’s Candy. We still have no idea how good he is. His ability is like a well and we still don’t know if he has come close to the bottom. Does that mean he will be my Kentucky Derby pick? Not at all, but if you told me now that one of these horses was going to sweep the TC I think he would be the one. Who do you like?

Kentucky Derby Top 10

 

Are you counting down the days yet? I know I am. There are 20 days until the Kentucky Derby. All of the major preps except for the Lexington Stakes have been conducted. Some horses will get injured and kept out of the starting gate on the First Saturday in May, but we pretty much know who is who at this point in time. Let’s take a look at my top contenders.

#1 Eskendereya- If this colt were a character from a movie he would be Clubber Lang from Rocky III. He reminds me of this quote from Mickey in that movie: “No, he ain’t just another fighter! This guy is a wrecking machine! And he’s hungry!”. My prediction for the Kentucky Derby? …..Pain! This son of Giant’s Causeway has a gun in a knife fight.

#2 Sidney’s Candy- I’ve said for a while that we don’t know how good this colt really is. Even after winning the Santa Anita Derby I STILL don’t think we have seen the bottom of him. I doubt he is as good as my #1 selection and his running style may compromise his chances. Can Talamo get him to rate? It might not matter if he is “just that good”.

#3 Lookin at Lucky- This colt’s name is quite an oxymoron. He has won 6 of 8 races, and if not for two horrible trips he might be undefeated. I love the way he still rallied to finish third in the Santa Anita Derby despite being pushed into the rail early in the race. He has the pedigree to go 10 furlongs. He is in great hands with Bob Baffert and big money rider Garrett Gomez.

#4 Paddy O’ Prado- I thought he was gone in the stretch of the Bluegrass Stakes until Stately Victor totally freaked and won the race. He is steadily improving and I just have a funny feeling that this colt is for real. Jockey Kent Desormeaux has a great record in the Kentucky Derby.

#5 Rule- The setup of the Florida Derby worked against him. I was nearly 100% sure a closer wouldn’t win that race. I loved his 2010 debut win when he took the Sam Davis Stakes. I’m not sure he is a candidate for top honors, but I can see him running a big race.

#6 Dublin- If he wasn’t in D Wayne Lukas’s barn I probably wouldn’t give him a shot. He had a perfect chance to win Arkansas Derby, but failed to go for the jugular late in the race. Monitor his training in the days leading up to the race.

#7 Awesome Act- He looked poised for a big run in the Wood Memorial turning for home, but when Leparoux unleashed him there wasn’t much there. However, I believe he lost a shoe at the start of the race. I wouldn’t be shocked to see him give a good impression of himself on Kentucky Derby day.

#8 Noble’s Promise- His fifth place finish in the Arkansas Derby sure didn’t help his chances. Ken McPeek is still on the fence in terms of deciding to race him in the Run for the Roses.

#9 Super Saver- Winner of the Grade 2 Jockey Club Stakes at two, this colt always give a good account of himself. His running style will probably hurt his chances on the First Saturday in May.

#10 Ice Box- I’m wary of this colt because he won the Florida Derby closing into a tough pace. How will he do when the track doesn’t play in his favor?

So there you have it, my top ten contenders for the Kentucky Derby. This list is almost  certain to change between now and May 1. Kentucky Derby betting will be very interesting, exciting, and fun this year. Who do you like? Leave a comment and join the conversation!