February 8, 2012

2011 Swaps Stakes betting preview

The Swaps Stakes is named after a horse with some of the best natural speed ever, Kentucky Derby winner Swaps. It is contested at 9 furlongs over the Cushion Track surface at Hollywood Park for three-year-olds. Swaps was also a Hollywood Gold Cup winner, a race which will take place the same day as his namesake event.

This year a small, but strong field of six has gathered to compete for the $150,000 purse. Let’s give each runner a quick look and try to locate the winner.

Runflatout (Flatter x Slammin’ Lil by Grand Slam) I bet this one last out when he finished second in the Affirmed Handicap. The John Sadler trainee was making his second start around two turns and finished second. The winner of that race, Coil, is also here. This time Runflatout will get 6 pounds on his rival and that could be the difference maker. Garrett Gomez replaces Victor Espinoza in the irons.

Spud Spivens (Tizbud x Ocean Reality by Cutlass Reality) Cal bred finished up well to be third beaten 5 lengths in the Affirmed last out. Before that he won two in a row taking a maiden race and a non-winners 1x event. The gelding was purchased $8k as a two-year-old and has eked out a nice living so far for trainer Henry Moreno. I can see him getting a check here, but winning would be a shock. He just doesn’t appear to be as good as the top two in here.

Coil (Point Given x Eversmile by Theatrical) The Bob Baffert trainee could be the best three-year-old in the country. Yes, I said the country. Last out he produced an easy score in the Affirmed Handicap in his first try at a route race. He gets a ton of stamina from his mare which means the extra half furlong will not create any problems. There is a lack of speed in this race, so look for him to be close. He’s will be a short price, but Coil has got this field over a barrel. Martin Garcia retains the mount.

Uncle Sam (Tapit x On The Town by Pleasant Colony) This one is also trained by Bob Baffert. Last out he didn’t fire as the favorite in the Lone Star Derby. It looks like he might be in this race to set the pace for Coil and try to hang on for a piece himself. Rafael Bejarano gets back aboard after riding him in his maiden win and to a fourth place finish in the Sham.

Dreamy Kid (Lemon Drop Kid x Dreams by Silver Hawk) Off the pace runner will add blinkers for trainer Neil Drysdale. He has plenty of stamina in the pedigree and could be a sneaky horse for the exacta spot. His last work was a bullet four furlongs in :47 H. Joe Talamo gets up for the first time.

Boxeur Des Rues (Smart Strike x Marseille Express by Caerleon) Doug O’Neill opts to try the Cushion Track with those colt that won over the turf last out. He broke his maiden first out across the pond at Kempton over a synthetic surface so he will probably like the track. This race will be third off the shelf which usually calls for a peak effort. If Joel Rosario can keep him from falling too far off the pace he might be tough to hold off for the second slot.

Bob Baffert’s Coil is holding aces here and will have to mess up big time to lose this one. If he slips up I’ll look for Boxeur Des Rues to pick up the pieces, but I honestly don’t see that happening. Pick 6 players should use this race as a single. Coil will run huge in the Swaps Stakes.

Single Coil on your tickets at Twin Spires or TVG. Both are great wagering platforms and good bonuses are available for all new players.

Nine great horse racing picks for this weekend!


One of the things I love the most about horse racing is that every weekend has something exciting going on. This weekend we will enjoy the Virginia Derby, Virginia Oaks, Swaps Stakes, Delaware Handicap, and the Arlington Handicap, among many other races. My free pick for this week was Krypton in the Virginia Derby. I’m very excited to see how he will perform at odds of 7/2.

I’ve handicapped nine races this weekend. My top selections range in price from 8-5 to 10-1, but most are above 3-1. It’s very unusual for me to do nine stakes races in a week, but I saw many things I liked and a number of price horses have great chances to win. I  feel really good about several picks this week. You can play along for just $10 this week, or join me for a month for only $35.

Be on the lookout for Saratoga picks starting next week. I will be handicapping the card every day and I highly encourage you to play along. Last year my highest priced winner was 21-1 shot Dattt Echo. I also gave out several Pick 4 plays paying in excess of $700. I’m ready to do it again.

Don’t miss out!