February 8, 2012

The Program seeks first stakes victory in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes

Bob Baffert has a deep stable of three-year-olds this year. The Program may be his fourth or fifth best sophomore, and he is the likely favorite in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes which is a prep for the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby. That really says something about his stable when he is sending out his fourth stringer for a nice prep race worth $150k.

The field for this race looks fairly weak and I have a hard time seeing any of the entrants making it to Churchill Downs on the First Saturday in May, but anything is possible. The Program is probably the most likely candidate. He will be racing for Thoroughbred Legends Racing Stable and Martin Garcia will be in the irons. The son of Harlan’s Holiday was last seen scoring a nose victory over Indian Firewater in an allowance event. He was fourth in the CashCall Futurity at the age of two. The extra distance in this race should suit him well. He obviously wouldn’t be a surprise.

Kettle River enters the Sham on a two race win streak for trainer Eion Harty and owner Darley Stable. He defeated The Program in his last race which was an allowance win. He is working up a storm, but I have to wonder if the distance will suit him. He is a son of Congaree. Brice Blanc will get the call to ride. He has started just three times, and I doubt we have seen his best stuff yet. Maybe this is his coming out party?

Alphie’s Bet figures to get plenty of support for trainer Alexis Barba. The son of Tribal Rule was last seen breaking his maiden against state bred company at Santa Anita over the lawn. Before that he was second behind Robert B. Lewis Stakes winner Caracortado in the California Breeders Champion Stakes. He is a big time closer, so he will need things to get hot up front if he is going to have a chance. He is working up a storm and should run well.

Michael Machowsky is getting recognition as the trainer of Caracortado, but he also has a tough Triple Crown contender with Nextdoorneighbor. He is a son of the Chilean bred Lido Palace. He took a maiden special weight by four lengths last out in his third trip to the track. The colt figures to get the distance. Mike Smith will pick up the mount in place of Rafeal Bejarano who has opted to ride Setsuko. Both colts look strong. Setsuko is bred to run all day as a son of Pleasantly Perfect with Mr. Prospector on the dams side.

Who do you like in the Grade 3 Sham Stakes? Click here for information on how to get my picks and plays for this race and other stakes action this weekend!

Lookin At Lucky tops field of 8 for CashCall Futurity

 

Breeders Cup Juvenile runner up Lookin At Lucky is the most notable of eight entries for the CashCall Futurity this weekend at Hollywood Park. Lookin At Lucky is trained by Bob Baffert who has won the race several times including last year with Pioneerof The Nile. The race is for open for two-year-olds and is raced at the distance of 8.5 furlongs. The purse is a whopping $750,000 and the winner will have more than enough earnings to start in next years Kentucky Derby.

Formerly known as the Hollywood Futurity, the race has produced six Kentucky Derby winners since it began in 1981. These winners are Gato Del Sol, Ferdinand, Alysheba, Thunder Gulch, Real Quiet, and Giacomo. Other notable winners include Snow Chief, AP Indy, Best Pal, and Point Given. 1994 winner Afternoon Deelites holds the stakes record with a time of 1:40.74. Alex Solis and Laffit Pincay, Jr. share the record for most wins by a jockey at a 4. Bob Baffert and D. Wayne Lukas are tied for most wins by a trainer at 4, and a win this year would give Baffert sole possession of this title.

Lookin At Lucky was a perfect four for four with wins in the Norfolk Stakes and Del Mar Futurity before just missing longshot winner Vale of York in the Breeders Cup Juvenile. Bob Baffert says that the son of Smart Strike is the best two-year-old he has trained in the last five years. His pedigree is very solid and he has showed tons of ability. If he is able to continue progressing at the rate he has then he will be a force not only in this race, but on the First Saturday in May. He has done little wrong thus far in his short career, and I expect him to take care of business in this one.

His best competition will likely come in the form of Dixiana Breeders Futurity winner Noble’s Promise who finished third in the Breeders Cup Juvenile last out.  Noble’s Promise is a son of Saratoga Special winner Cuvee. He has a nice stalking style and I expect him to move forward in this spot. He looked very good striking the lead in the stretch drive of the Breeders Cup Juvenile, but was unable to hold off Vale of York and Lookin At Lucky while losing by about three quarters of a length. Robby Albarado will replace Willie Martinez in the irons. I must critizicize this move, because Martinez has done very well with the colt. He could give the colt a ride that is as good or better than Albarado will. Look for him to run a big race.

I was very surprised when Grade 1 Del Mar Futurity runner up Make Music For Me finished sixth in a maiden special weight last out. The colt is tremedously talented, but his closing style was rendered useless after a dawdling pace was set. He will need a fast pace to run well here and winning is going to be a lot to ask. I think it would be more useful to get a win under his belt in a lesser race before trying the big boys again. However, make no mistake about it; this colt will be a stakes winner before its all said and done. Mike Smith will ride, and he does well with this style of runner.

Bob Baffert will also send out The Program and Marcello. Both appear to be a notch below the top two contenders, but there is no telling when a horse is going to “wake up” when they are this young. Marcello was second in the Grade 3 Generous Stakes over the turf course last out. He has won twice over synthetic surfaces, but will need to move forward to make an impact here. Jose Valdivia will ride. The Program was most recently second in an allowance after breaking his maiden. Victor Espinoza will replace Martin Garcia in the irons.

Seattle Ruler, Brady Blue Eyes, and Wildlee Special round out the field. I’ll go with Lookin at Lucky as my top pick. I think he is just too good for this field. Who do you like?!