Challengers lining up to face Pletcher and Borel’s Kentucky Derby winner Super Saver

For the third time in four years Calvin Borel rocketed his mount to the front of the pack in the Kentucky Derby. In 2007 it was aboard juvenile champion Street Sense. He did it on super long shot Mine That Bird in 2009. This time it was on Super Saver. The Cajun jockey held three fingers to the sky after the race to signify these three horses.

Soon after he boldly stated that the son of Maria’s Mon would win the Triple Crown. Trainer Todd Pletcher said that Super Saver’s next race would come in the Preakness (shocking, right?). Calvin may believe he has the 12th Triple Crown winner of all time, but several challengers will line up to oppose him.

The first one that leaps out to me is Grade 2 Louisiana Derby runner up A Little Warm. He was very impressive stretching out in distance for the first time in that race. He appeared to be a sprinter, but he proved his doubters wrong by digging in and holding on for second after he came under attack early in the stretch run. If he can improve on that effort he would be dangerous in the Preakness. If Bob Baffert doesn’t send Conveyance his chances will be increased. Conveyance would likely burn him to a crisp on the lead.

I also like Grade 2 Robert B. Lewis winner Caracortado. The gelded son of Cat Dreams has had excuses in his last to races. In the Grade 2 San Felipe he had no fractions to chase and Sidney’s Candy easily pulled the wire job. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he had to check sharply after the Gomez-Espinoza incident where Lookin at Lucky was slammed into the rail. If he goes to the Preakness and the fractions are sharp you can bet your ass he will come flying late. The only thing working against him is that Pimlico Racecourse favors speed.

The Kentucky Derby favorite, Lookin at Lucky, would have a heck of a chance if Bob Baffert decides to send him. He has encountered plenty of trouble in his three-year-old campaign, but has handled it well. He rallied to win the Grade 2 Rebel Stakes after clipping heels. In the Grade 1 Santa Anita Derby he was unable to overcome being slammed into the rail, but still finished third. He put in a nice rally in the Derby but couldn’t overcome his rail post position. If Garrett Gomez can navigate a clean trip he will be loaded for bear turning for home and could mow them all down.

Others considering the race are Kentucky Derby third place finisher Paddy O’Prado. He is the definition of the “now” horse. He continues to improve with every start. Nick Zito and Bob LaPenta are toying with idea of starting Kentucky Derby runner up Ice Box in the Preakness, but will probably save him for the Belmont Stakes. Ice Box was easily the best colt in the Derby, but didn’t win because of an awful trip. Their other horse, Jackson Bend, is likely to go.

Other Kentucky Derby also rans’ considering the Preakness are Dublin, Make Music For Me, and Conveyance. New shooters include the Grade 3 Derby Trial first three finishers Hurricane Ike, Aikenite, and Pleasant Prince. Grade 3 Tampa Bay Derby runner up Schoolyard Dreams and Grade 3 Illinois Derby fourth place finisher Turf Melody wrap up the list of potential challengers. Super Saver will undoubtedly be in with a huge shot, but these horses won’t make it easy on him.

Who is your early pick for the Preakness? Leave a comment and share your thoughts!

Kentucky Derby Approaching May 1

The First Saturday in May is rapidly drawing closer. The Kentucky Derby took a hit this weekend when probable favorite Eskendereya was withdrawn from consideration after trainer Todd Pletcher discovered a swollen leg. His defection after winning the Wood Memorial and as the favorite follows I Want Revenge who was  also going to be the favorite after winning the Wood Memorial in 2009. The defection of Eskendereya makes way for the Bob Baffert trained juvenile champion Lookin at Lucky to become the new favorite.

Todd Pletcher’s best hope for ending his 0-24 skid in the Run for the Roses may have been Eskendereya, but he still has plenty of bullets to fire. Among his entrants this year will be Louisiana Derby winner Mission Impazible, Sam Davis Stakes winner Rule, and Arkansas Derby runner up Super Saver. The filly Devil May Care, Discreetly Mine, and Interactif are also potential chances for Todd Pletcher.

I feel sorry for jockey Johnny Velazquez. He lost Florida Derby winner Quality Road last year and now he has lost Eskendereya. It appears that he will get the mount on Devil May Care if Pletcher’s opts for the Kentucky Derby over the Kentucky Oaks. She is a big lanky filly that is blazing fast, but may not be ready for the Kentucky Derby. I’d like to see her in the Oaks.

This Kentucky Derby is wide open just like last year. Many of the top contenders have big question marks. The overall quality of the field seems sub par and could be average at best. I don’t think we have any chance of seeing a Triple Crown winner. The only horse I could see doing it would be Sidney’s Candy. We still have no idea how good he is. His ability is like a well and we still don’t know if he has come close to the bottom. Does that mean he will be my Kentucky Derby pick? Not at all, but if you told me now that one of these horses was going to sweep the TC I think he would be the one. Who do you like?

Jackson Bend and Buddy’s Saint lead strong Fountain of Youth Stakes

The Fountain of Youth Stakes served as a “coming out” party of sorts for Quality Road in 2009. He would use the race as a springboard for a win in the Florida Derby. The field was very strong last year and is just as strong in 2010. Jackson Bend and Buddy’s Saint figure to get most of the money. Buddy’s Saint is making his three-year-old debut after a strong win in the Remsen at 2, and Jackson Bend was last seen running second in the Holy Bull Stakes. Let’s take a look at the field.

Eskendereya looks like the speed of the speed for trainer Todd Pletcher. The son of Giant’s Causeway is a perfect two for two on dirt tracks. He was last seen winning an allowance at Gufstream Park. He is training very well and will have John Velazquez in the irons. Stablemate Aikenite is also entered here. He ran 6th in the Holy Bull in his last start. Pletcher was quoted that the extra distance today will help his cause.

Trainer Nick Zito will send out Jackson Bend and Ice Box. The latter won an allowance in his last start. Joe Bravo will pick up the mount on the son of Pulpit. Jackson Bend turned many heads when he swept the Florida Stallion Stakes. He was so impressive that Robert LaPenta privately purchased him. He is sired by Hear No Evil. The colt was super impressive last out when he finished second to Winslow Homer in the  Holy Bull. He had a bad trip and had to endure brutal fractions. He should have a huge shot to win here.

Buddy’s Saint is a son of the ill fated Saint Liam who died shortly after  beginning his career at stud. He has showed tons of ability so far with huge wins in the Nashua Stakes and Remsen Stakes at 2. If he has improved since those efforts its going to be scary to see how good he is. Jose Lezcano will retain the mount for Bruce Levine. It would come as no shock if he won this race.

Lost Aptitude will be switching to dirt from turf for trainer Dale Romans. The son of Aptitude has never run a bad race on the turf, but its hard to know how he will do on the dirt. He won the Grand Canyon Handicap at Churchill Downs in November. He just missed winning the Grade 3 Tropical Park Derby in his last start where he ended up second. Rajiv Maragh will get the mount.

Mike Smith will be in to ride Pulsion for Patrick Biancone. He finished second in the Grade 1 Norfolk behind Lookin at Lucky, but couldnt put it together in the Breeders Cup Juvenile where he finished 11th. He is working very strongly, but will need a fast pace in order to have a chance.

Pleasant Prince, Prince Will I Am, and Positive Split round out the field. Who do you like in the Fountain of Youth Stakes? Leave a comment and share your thoughts. My picks and plays are available by clicking here. I did very well last week. I had the winner in 5 of 7 races. Don’t miss out!

Bad Day for Pletcher and Velazquez

Sunday was a bad day for Todd Pletcher and John Velazquez. They hooked up in the Tremont and Astoria Stakes with two highly regarded horses who totally flopped. Each were coming off of impressive victories on the Polytrack at Keeneland. That could possibly have been the reason for their bust.

Mr Mistoffolees is a son of Storm Cat, and he sold for $1,500,000 at the Keeneland sale in 2007. The DRF chart for the Tremont says the start was good for everybody but him. He stumbled badly at the break, and steadied early in the race. Mr Mistoffolees ended up 5th and last in the Tremont. He was sent off at odds of 1-5 after his emphatic victory at Keeneland first time out. He won by 9 lengths and covered the 4 ½ furlongs distance in a blazing :50. He just had some bad luck in the Tremont if you ask me. I would draw a line through this race the next time you see him.

Pride won first time out at Keeneland from the 12 hole. That is very difficult to do while racing at 4 ½ furlongs. She stumbled a bit at the break in the Astoria, but had no real excuse. Like I noted before, the fact that she was coming off the Polytrack could have played a role in her defeat. She ended up just missing for third.

The winner of the Tremont was Dagnabit with Cornelio Velasquez and Rick Dutrow hooking up on that one. The son of Freud raced wide and ended up winning by a ½ length. Bold Union was the victor in the Astoria. She drew off by 9 ¾ lengths under Stewart Elliott for trainer Kelly Breen. Her time was a second faster than the boys.

Pletcher and Velazquez swept the Tremont and Astoria in 2007 with Ready’s Image and Glacken’s Gal.