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Uncle Mo looks sharp for return in King’s Bishop

August 22, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Uncle Mo looked like the “next coming” in his Breeders Cup Juvenile triumph. Check out the video of the race above. Seriously, even if you have seen it, watch it again.

Many thought the son of Indian Charlie would take the Kentucky Derby, but it wasn’t meant to be as a GI tract infection kept him from racing. His loss in the Wood Memorial sort of foretold his future troubles. He should have crushed that group so it’s clear that something was amiss that day at Aqueduct.

Todd Pletcher has handled him with kid gloves since then and has steadily prepared him for the Grade 1 King’s Bishop going seven furlongs at Saratoga. If his recent work of :59.95 for five furlongs is any indication, the colt is ready to run a huge race.

The layoff isn’t likely to hinder him much, if at all. Let’s not forget he broke his maiden first out over this track by about 14 lengths. The point being not that he handled a group of horses that hadn’t won, but that he fires fresh. The maiden win rates among the best by any horse ever in that caliber of race.

It’s scary to think how good Uncle Mo could be if he lives up to his potential. Racing really needs a star right now and I’m putting my money behind the Repole owned and Pletcher trained colt. He will be extremely hard to beat in the King’s Bishop.

 

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Betting the Monmouth’s Continental Mile

August 18, 2011 By Leave a Comment

 

The Continental Mile is a one mile turf race for two-year-olds at Monmouth Park worth $65k. Last year’s winner Rustler Hustler hasn’t turned out to be much of a horse, but the 2011 field has great potential.

Wes Ward’s gelding Black Rhino (El Corredor x Foreign Aid by Danzig) looks to be the pacesetter. He was last seen setting the fractions for Overdriven in the Sanford Stakes before fading to be fourth beaten 7 ½ lengths. Before that he broke his maiden by 8 on the Churchill Downs turf course going five furlongs. Quite an emphatic win! Robby Albarado will ride and he figures to be tough to beat here after firing a :58 3/5 H work at Aqueduct on Wednesday.

Finale (Scat Daddy x Twinkle by Live One) will have plenty of support for trainer Todd Pletcher. He broke his maiden last out going six furlongs on the grass at Belmont and did so by 5 ¾ lengths under only hand urging from John Velazquez. Joe Bravo picks up the mount as Johnny V has several high quality mounts at Saratoga on Saturday. I have to view this as a negative, but in the end it shouldn’t keep you from betting the horse if you like him.

I will make my pick Team Valor International’s filly Visionaria (Byron x Fine Lady by Selkirk). She ships in after a win last out in Milan and owns a record of 2 wins from 3 lifetime starts. Graham Motion is doing very well all around at the moment and has had plenty of success bringing horses in from overseas. I’m hoping this lass can best the boys under his tutelage.  Jose Valdivia will be the pilot aboard the filly.

If you plan to bet the Continental Mile please check out our Horse Betting page for information on where to play. Also, consider checking out the virtual horse racing version of the event by visiting our Horse Racing Games page!

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2011 Saratoga Special betting preview

August 14, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Saratoga Special Stakes is one of the premier races for two-year-old’s every year at the Spa. Last year’s running was taken by Kantharos who won emphatically eased up at the wire. Sadly, his career ended prematurely due to an injury.

It would take all day to list notable winners of this race, but some of my favorites to win the Saratoga Special are Kodiak Kowboy, Gulch, Conquistador Cielo, Bold Forbes and Native Dancer. Click here to learn more about the history of this race which has been contested since 1901.

Todd Pletcher’s colt Stat (Unbridled’s Song x Di’s Time by Gilded Time) is the 7/5 morning line favorite. He won first out by 1 ¾ lengths over Trade and Street Fight. John Velazquez will ride  for owners Bortolazzo Stable Llc. His debut win looked strong, but I’m not willing to accept such a short price.

My top selection to win the Saratoga Special is Union Rags (Dixie Union x Tempo by Gone West). The Chadds Ford Stable owned colt won first out at Delaware closing from seventh. He easily ran past the pacesetter to register a 1 ¾ lengths score. Trainer Michael Matz doesn’t come to Saratoga to play around so we know he thinks this guy is the real deal. JJ Castellano picks up the mount at 5-1.

Banner Bill (Rockport Harbor x Temporada by Summer Squall) and Indian Evening (Indian Charlie x Unenchantedevening by Unbridled’s Song) ship in from Woodbine for this prestigious race. The latter was an easy first out winner for Josie Carroll and Vinery Stables. Banner Bill is a perfect three for three with a hard fought length win in the Colin Stakes last out. Rajiv Maragh will ride Indian Evening and Alex Solis will be the pilot on Banner Bill.

Italo (With Distinction x Dance Forthe Green by Gone West) won his debut at Longchamp for Wes Ward. After that he ran last in the Group 2 Coventry Stakes at Royal Ascot. Cant count him out at 10-1, but I also cannot see enough to back him. Jeffrey Sanchez is listed to ride.

Trinniberg (Teuflesberg x Bella Dorado by Seeking The Gold) will get plenty of action after an easy first out win at Calder in which he crossed the wire 5 ¾ lengths clear of his closest foe. Trainer Bisnath Parboo isn’t well known, but a capable conditioner nonetheless. Cornelio Velasquez gets the call on this 3-1 shot.

To get all of our thoughts on the action at Saratoga check out our Saratoga Picks page. Also, considering wagering at Twin Spires where new players get a $100 sign up bonus!

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2011 Haskell Invitational betting preview

July 28, 2011 By 4 Comments

Haskell Invitational, Monmouth Park/Sunday @ 5:43 PM EST

The Haskell Invitational is one of two races leading up to the Travers Stakes later this month. The main difference between this race and it’s counterpart (Jim Dandy Stakes), is that this race is a Grade 1. Not only that, but it boasts a purse of $1 million. For these two reasons winning the Haskell is every bit as important as taking the Travers later on this summer. Eight out of the last ten Haskell winners have gone on to win the Eclipse Award for top three-year-old male. With the picture atop the division increasingly foggy this race takes on even more meaning.

 Shackleford (Forestry x Oatsee by Unbridled) should play the role of favorite. The speedy colt led the field of 20 turning for home in the Kentucky Derby before fading to fourth. His signature win came next out in the Preakness where he scored from just off the pace. The battle hardened racehorse faded in the Belmont Stakes last out as the distance proved too much for him. He has three works since then including two bullets and it appears all systems are go. I’m going to look another direction as I believe the colt is over hyped and when you get down to it just isn’t that good.

Kelly Breen brings Belmont Stakes winner Ruler On Ice (Roman Ruler x Champagne Glow by Saratoga Six) and Louisiana Derby winner Pants On Fire (Jump Start x Cabo de Noche by Cape Town). Ruler On Ice benefited from an off track at Belmont and in my eyes he still has to prove he belongs. His stable mate on the other hand is a serious contender. He looked great winning the Pegasus Stakes last out, but he is a bit light in the speed figures department.

My pick for this race is Coil (Point Given x Eversmile by Theatrical). Trainer Bob Baffert is deadly when shipping and 41% winners when removing blinkers which he will do for his charge in the Haskell. I’m hoping this will help him relax and sit just behind what appears to be plenty of early speed in this race. Coil has limitless potential and is still lightly raced having made just five starts. He’s working tremendously and the Haskell could be his coming out party. Martin Garcia is the pilot.

Another interesting horse that I almost made my pick is Astrology (AP Indy x Quiet Eclipse by Quiet American). I love his running style and I believe we haven’t seen his best yet. Steve Asmussen trains and Julien Leparoux will ride.

Joe Vann (Silver Deputy x Polish Flower by Danzig) and J J’s Lucky Train (Silver Wagon x Delta Sensation by Thunder Gulch) could be pace factors. I really encourage throwing Joe Vann in considering he races for Todd Pletcher and will be a juicy price at 15-1.

We will be betting Coil at Twin Spires where new accounts get a $100 sign up bonus. Check them out!

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2011 Coaching Club American Oaks betting preview

July 20, 2011 By 1 Comment

The CCA Oaks is one of the premier races each year for three-year-old fillies. It is contested at nine furlongs on the main track at Saratoga. Notable recent winners include Devil May Care, Music Note and Ashado.

Kentucky Oaks winner Plum Pretty (Medaglia d’Oro x Liszy by AP Indy) headlines this field. Since her gritty win at Churchill Downs she has raced just once and placed second in the Hollywood Oaks. She was defeated by a top filly there named Zazu, but I don’t know if Plum Pretty was ready to run her best race that day. Bob Baffert is crazy good whens shipping to Saratoga so we know the likely favorite has a big shot. Martin Garcia will make the trip to ride.

Royal Delta (Empire Maker x Delta Princess by AP Indy) figures to get plenty of action as well for trainer Bill Mott and jockey Jose Lezcano. A winner of three of her four career starts, she was last seen coming from off the pace to post a stylish victory in the Black-Eyed Susan Stakes at Pimlico. The second place finisher there, Buster’s Ready (More Than Ready x Beatem Buster by Honour and glory), returned to take the Grade 1 Mother Goose. She is also entered here for Todd Pletcher and jockey John Velazquez.

The entry of Kentucky Oaks favorite Joyful Victory (Tapit x Wild Lucky Black by Wild Again) is worth mentioning. She destroyed two races at Oaklawn earlier this year when she won the Honeybee and Fantasy. Since then she was a flat fourth in the Kentucky Oaks and well beaten second in the Mother Goose. She’s got a top trainer in Larry Jones. Maybe he has figured something out to turn her around and bring that Oaklawn form back.

It’s Tricky (Mineshaft x Catboat by Tale of the Cat) defeated top filly Turbulent Descent last out in the Acorn Stakes. That win was highly impressive and came under new jockey Eddie Castro. Trainer Kiaran McLaughing has wisely opted to keep him aboard. This filly is a winner of four of five lifetime starts. The lass will be a pace factor in this race.

While it is a short field of five horses, the CCA is one of those rare instances where every single horse in the race can win. That means if you have a solid opinion and can single on the Pick 4 it will pay off. We have just such an opinion and you can get in on our top pick as well as exotic tickets by checking out our Saratoga Picks page.

New players should consider betting the CCA Oaks at Twin Spires. They are owned by Churchill Downs and offer a $100 sign up bonus.

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2011 Schuylerville Stakes betting preview

July 20, 2011 By 5 Comments

The Schuylerville Stakes at Saratoga is for two-year-old fillies going six furlongs. The most notable winners of this race are Meadow Star and Ashado. Both went on to be multiple Grade 1 winners.

This year’s field is headed by rags to riches success story Flashy Lassie (Holy Bull x Lemon Pop Lassie by Lemon Drop Kid). She rallied from next to last in the Grade 3 Debutante last out at Churchill Downs to win by a length after scoring by nine in a maiden claimer first out. Her $4,000 purchase price as a yearling means she is quite the success story for owner Barry King. Kent Desormeaux rides back for trainer Gary Simms.

The main foes for Flashy Lassie will be Georgie’s Angel (Bellamy Road x Lalka by Dynaformer) and Gypsy Robin (Daaher x Fesity Princess by Indian Charlie). Gypsy Robin debuted by smashing a field at Keeneland for trainer Wes Ward. After that she shipped across the pond to try the Group 2 Queen Mary where she finished seventh of fourteen beaten three and a half lengths.

Georgie’s Angel will race for trainer Todd Pletcher. She broke her maiden first out by six and a quarter lengths at Churchill Downs. She couldn’t have done it any easier than she did. The filly could be any kind and will get the acid test today. Both Georgie’s Angel and Gypsy Robin are speedsters and should gun for the front.

To get our top pick for the Schuylerville Stakes as well as the rest of the action from Saratoga, check out our Saratoga Picks page. Also, consider betting online with Twin Spires. They are currently offering an industry best $100 sign up bonus for new players!

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2011 Jersey Shore Stakes betting preview

July 2, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Grade 3 Jersey Shore Stakes is a six furlong sprint for three-year-olds at Monmouth Park on July 3. A very strong field of seven colts and geldings will compete for the $90,000 winners share of the $150,000 purse.

Typically a field with only seven horses won’t provide much betting value, but when you get a race like this where any of them can win it is certainly a race worth playing. Let’s take a look at the field.

Zero Rate Policy (Trippi x Unititled Song by Unbridled’s Song) Speedster took the Rumson last out by an easy 4 3/4 lengths for trainer Terri Pompay. He is a perfect two for two at Monmouth and should be gunning for the lead from the rail. Carlos Marquez has got a big shot on this gelding. So far he has done everything asked of him, but this will be the acid test. He won’t lack backers at 3-1.

Parent’s Honor (Elusive Quality x Dami by Dynaformer) Seems to have found his calling in the sprint division after an easy seven length romp in an optional claimer at Delaware last out. It’s hard to go against trainer Anthony Dutrow who is a perfect four for four at Monmouth this meet. Jockey Jeremy Rose knows his way around a horse too. This is a horse I might consider in another race, but at 4-1 in this highly competitive event I will take a pass.

C J Russell (El Corredor x Miss Gibson County by Winrightt) His debut was smashing when he won going this distance at Churchill Downs. He looked even better second time out when cruising for a 1 1/4 length win over the highly regarded Cornpiper. I really like his chances to be a multiple graded winner, but I’m not sure it will start here. The pace will be contentious and I have a feeling he gets burned up under jockey Alan Garcia.

Royal Currier (Red Bullet x Top Of The League by Lite The Fuse) Gelding won his turf debut last out and before that was a close second to Little Drama at Parx. He likes the surface here at Monmouth, but the Patracia Farro trainee looks to be in deep at 8-1. Angel Serpa gets the call to ride.

Flashpoint (Pomeroy x Two Punch Lil by Two Punch) His grand sire passed away last week and perhaps the scary fast colt got his gray color from him. He was last seen backing up badly in the Preakness. That shouldnt bother anyone though as it was clearly out of his range. He looked like a freak in both of his sprint races and if that form comes back he will be tough to topple at 5-2 for trainer Wesley Ward and jockey Cornelio Velasquez.

Cal Nation (Distorted Humor x She’s A Winner by A.P. Indy) Ran to his low odds last out when taking an allowance race by 5 1/2 lengths going this distance at Belmont. Before that he failed as the favorite in the Jerome where he ended up a well beaten eighth. He gets 6 pounds on the favorite. His debut win by seven lengths was epic. It’s hard to ignore a Todd Pletcher horse at 5-1, especially considering how good this colt could be. Chris Decarlo gets the ride.

Chipshot (Peace Rules x Chispiski by Appealing Skier) Ran huge to be second to Vengeful Wildcat last out in the Chick Lang. On his best day he can compete here, but winning will be tough. Steve Asmussen trains and Elvis Trujillo will be in the irons.

120x90 - Capture the Throne

My top pick to win the Jersey Shore is Cal Nation. He is a horse with a lot of potential that I can envision whipping this field or even running fourth. With so much quality stacked in this race nothing will shock me. With this colt I get a good price at 5-1 and I’m backing ace trainer Todd Pletcher in a stakes race. That’s never a bad move.

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Uncle Mo & Stay Thirsty work in company for Kentucky Derby

May 1, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Earlier this year I did a post called “Buy or Sell: Uncle Mo”. At the end of the post I told you I couldn’t make up my mind without more data. Two races and multiple works later I still hadn’t decided. Now, after his final Kentucky Derby work, I can tell you that I am selling on Uncle Mo.

The son of Indian Charlie out of the Arch mare Playa Maya worked five furlongs over a sloppy track with stable mate Stay Thirsty in 1:01 3/5 this morning. Internal fractions of :12 4/5, :25 2/5, :37 1/5, and :49 1/5 were recorded as was a six furlong gallop out in 1:14 1/5 and seven in 1:28.

When looking at Kentucky Derby works I want a horse that really blows me away and looks like he is on tilt. To me,  this is a sign of a horse that is prepared to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby. That is why I went with Hard Spun in 2007 after he posted a :57 4/5 B five furlong bullet. The Larry Jones colt ran a heck of a race and ended up second at 10-1 behind a horse with an equally good work of :58 B.  That horse, as you probably know, was Street Sense.

Uncle Mo won the Breeders Cup Juvenile just like Street Sense. Unfortunately for trainer Todd Pletcher, jockey John Velazquez and owner Mike Repole that is likely where their similarities will end.  Nothing about his latest work tells me Uncle Mo will rebound and win the Kentucky Derby. It just wasn’t impressive at all.

The risk of taking him now far outweighs the potential reward. I would need 10-1  to bet this colt and he will be much closer to 5 or 6-1. Combine these unimpressive works with the fact that he is recovering from a GI tract infection and he becomes even less attractive.

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Kentucky Derby Profile: Uncle Mo

April 19, 2011 By 1 Comment

Uncle Mo (Indian Charlie x Playa Maya by Arch)

Trainer: Todd Pletcher

Jockey: John Velazquez

*Click the link to find out how to get our Kentucky Derby Picks**

The first time I ever heard the name Uncle Mo, I was sitting at Turfway Park with a few friends taking in the races. It was August 28 and the Travers was scheduled to run later that day. Before the big races were kicked off a strong field of two-year-old maidens were set to compete. I wasn’t playing the race, but my pal Max asked me if I thought this colt, Uncle Mo, could lose. I told him I thought the colt was very likely to win, but he would get his answer in a few minutes. I wasn’t going to bet him at any rate as he was 4/5 and I wanted to save my funds for the later races anyway.

Just a few moments later Uncle Mo delivered a stunning 14 1/4 length debut win going six furlongs. He stopped the clock in 1:09 1/5 while beating nine other colts under a mere hand ride. 4/5 looked like a gift after that awe inspiring effort. To this day and throughout history it will rank as one of the easiest and best maiden wins ever.

Fast forward just a bit over seven months later and people were still asking the same question. Could Uncle Mo lose the Wood Memorial? He looked about as unbeatable as any horse has ever looked, but the world was shocked when he finished third beaten 1 1/4 lengths to Toby’s Corner. Owner Mike Repole and trainer Todd Pletcher had tests performed on their star horse and it was discovered that he had a gastrointestinal tract infection.

It surely didn’t help his chances, but we cant blame his Wood Memorial loss purely on the GI tract infection. Uncle Mo was trying nine furlongs for the first time and was going two turns for just the second time in his career. He also grabbed a quarter at the start of the race. All of this with just a single race in six months. Can we really expect any three-year-old to win the Wood Memorial after having just a single start in six months? I certainly don’t think so. He clearly lacked a foundation and wasn’t ready to go the distance.

We must remember this is a colt that registered perhaps the strongest victory ever seen in the Breeders Cup Juvenile and he won the Champagne Stakes just as easily. He has got a mere five starts so far. Combine the fact that he is so lightly raced with his dominant performance in the Timely Writer going eight furlongs to start 2011 and I believe this colt hasn’t declined in talent or ability. He is every bit as good as he was last year.

The next questions for Uncle Mo are health and distance. Can he adequately recover from his infection in time to win the most prestigious horse race in America? That is a question I am not able to answer. We should know based on how he works leading up to the race. Pletcher has indicated that he will work twice before the Kentucky Derby. I’ll be watching both works intently, but most of my emphasis will be on the second work. I encourage you to do the same and draw your own conclusion.

I don’t expect distance to stop this colt. He has got too much talent for that. There is plenty of stamina from his mare, Playa Maya, to get him home going 10 panels. Her sire, Arch, has proved to be an excellent stamina influence.

A great quote from Warren Buffett comes to mind here. “A simple rule dictates my buying: Be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful.” he said. Uncle Mo was set to be the heaviest favorite in recent Kentucky Derby history before his Wood Memorial slip up. Is one hiccup along the way enough to get you off his band wagon? It shouldn’t be. Uncle Mo is a colt in the best of hands with 2010 Kentucky Derby winning trainer Todd Pletcher and he has got all the talent in the world. If he is healthy and ready to run his best race in the Kentucky Derby everyone else should be very afraid.

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Wood Memorial & Santa Anita Derby recap

April 11, 2011 By Leave a Comment

Will Uncle Mo bounce back successfully?

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The impossible happened and Uncle Mo sustained his first defeat when he couldn’t accelerate clear when asked by John Velazquez in the Wood Memorial where he faded to finish third behind upset winner Toby’s Corner. The Indian Charlie colt grabbed a quarter at the beginning of the race, but trainer Todd Pletcher said that wasn’t an acceptable excuse for the juvenile champion’s first loss.

For those unfamiliar with the term, grabbing a quarter is an injury that occurs when a rear hoof collides with a front hoof. It is sort of like the horse clipping heels, but only he clips them with himself. Mo’s hoof injury looks a bit gnarly, but Pletcher says it isn’t very serious. You can find a picture of Uncle Mo’s hoof taken by Barbara Livingston as well as an article about the race by clicking here.

It is my opinion that Uncle Mo lost because he did not have a foundation leading up to the Wood Memorial that would have him fit enough to go 9 furlongs. He would beat that field 99 times out of 100, but his trainer did not have him ready to roll. The blame falls squarely on the shoulders of Todd Pletcher. I still believe Uncle Mo is a horse to be reckoned with despite his loss. There will be only 2 or perhaps 3 horses with a shot of beating him if he regains his form in the Kentucky Derby. To do that Pletcher will have to work his magic. Keeping up with workout reports will be of paramount importance. I’m taking a wait and see approach from now until then.

Toby’s Corner stamped his ticket to the Kentucky Derby with a powerful surge up the rail under jockey Eddie Castro for trainer Graham Motion. The son of Bellamy Road is now a winner of 4 races from 6 starts. I was a big time believer after his win in the Whirlaway Stakes, but after he flopped in the Gotham I scoffed at his chances. Well, it appears he is for real. His closing style will be a big advantage in his next start as the Run for the Roses looks loaded with speed. This is a competitor you can’t ignore, which is why I moved him to #8 on my Kentucky Derby Contenders ranking list.

The Santa Anita Derby saw recent maiden breaker Midnight Interlude get past a stubborn Comma To The Top. I loved when Trevor Denman said “All hands on deck for Comma To The Top” as he tried unsuccessful to hold his opponent at bay down the stretch. Denman turned a decisively uninteresting race into something worth watching. Unfortunately that is about as good as it gets for this race. I would be absolutely shocked if a horse out of this race won the Kentucky Derby. While he is a great colt, Midnight Interlude is too inexperienced to perform well going 10 furlongs next month. Comma To The Top is as gutty of a horse as you will find, but a son of Bwana Charlie going 10 furlongs is laughable.

Trainer Bob Baffert is smart enough to know that his colt will be practically a 100-1 shot (not on the tote board, but in reality) when he goes to the big race next month. That doesn’t mean he isn’t good though. Plain and simply he is just too unseasoned. I could see him having an impact in a big race down the road like the Haskell Invitational or the Travers Stakes, but doing well in the Kentucky Derby is asking too much.

What did you think of the Wood Memorial and Santa Anita Derby? Leave a comment and we can discuss the races.

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