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Woodbine Picks (Woodbine Mile, Northern Dancer, Natalma, Summer Stakes)

September 16, 2011 By Leave a Comment

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Usually I would do posts for all of these greats races, but computer troubles have limited my ability to work this week. I’ll do my best though. Woodbine betting has treated us well and it is the location of our largest ever hit as we cashed the trifecta and superfecta in the Queen’s Plate earlier this year. Let’s get cracking on these turf races.

Grade 3 $250,000 Summer Stakes (Tw0-Year-Olds, 1 Mile)

Todd Pletcher’s colt Finale (Scat Daddy x Twinkle by Lively One) dusted the competition last out to take the Continental Mile Stakes by 10 ½ lengths over less than stellar competition. He is listed at even money on the morning line and that price is much too low. I’ll make Excaper (Exchange Rate x Ada Ruckus by Bold Ruckus) my top pick. He looked strong in the debut drawing away to win by 3 ¼ lengths. He boasts two strong turf works since then and trainer Ian Black has opted to use lasix for the first time. The Emma Jayne Wilson ridden colt looks very solid at 15-1.

Grade 3 $200,000 Natalma Stakes (Two-Year-Old Fillies, 1 Mile)

Good luck finding a race more wide open than this one. Any one of the 13 entrants has a legitimate chance to win. I like to find a bomber in situations like this. Anna Sophia (Oasis Dream x Devout by Dehere) qualifies perfectly. The Bill Mott trained lass broke her maiden at first asking before running last in the Adirondack. She was facing stiff competition that day. Reason to like her in this spot include first time lasix and moving to a surface she is bred to love. Patrick Valenzuela is listed to ride and we love him here at Graded Stakes.

Grade 1 $500,000 Northern Dancer Tuf Stakes (Three-Year-Year-Olds and Updward, 1 ½  Miles)

Wigmore Hall (High Chaparral x Love and Laughter by Theatrical) looks to have this group over a barrel. The Irish bred gelding was last seen finishing fourth in the Arlington Million after quite a rough trip. This should be a big drop in class as he has faced the likes of Presvis, River Jetez, Gitano Hernando, Cape Blanco and Gio Ponti in recent starts. Any of those horses would be a heavy favorite here. Jimmy Spencer gets the call to ride in place of the injured Hailie Turner for trainer Michael Bell.

Grade 1 $1,000,000 Woodbine Mile (Three-Year-Year-Olds and Updward, 1 Mile)

Many of us have believed for quite a while that Courageous Cat (Storm Cat x Tranquility Lake by Rahy) is the best turf miler in North America. He will get his chance to prove it with Patrick Valenzuela riding for trainer Bill Mott. The colt was last seen winning the Shoemaker Mile by a short margin over Caracortado. The margin of victory is deceiving as he had him in his pocket the whole way. The competition is stiffer this time as he will face European invaders Side Glance and Dance And Dance. Despite that, I think he will be super tough to beat and consider him a solid single in multi race wagers.

Be sure to check out our Free Horse Racing Picks page for more selections in the future. Also, check out our Horse Betting page to learn how and where to bet races like the Woodbine Mile online!

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2011 Arlington Million Preview

August 11, 2011 By Leave a Comment

The Arlington Million is one of the premier turf races in America. Not only does it provide a massive $1 million purse, but it is so prestigious that it attracts entrants from across the pond almost every year. The winner receives an automatic entry to the Breeders Cup Turf. Notable victors include John Henry (twice), Manila and Star of Cozzene. 2009 winner Gio Ponti is back this year to try and become the second horse to win the Arlington Million more than once.

Rahystrada (Rahy x Ministrada by Deputy Minister) Love this old gelding. He rallied well to win the Colonial Turf Cup over Smart Bid last out. He loves the distance, but he may be in just a bit too deep this time.

Tajaaweed (Dynaformer x Uforia by Zeal) Shadwell Stable owned horse has 2 wins from 5 starts at Arlington and was last seen taking the Arlington Handicap as the favorite over Mister Mardi Gras. This is a good track and distance for him, but in the end it looks like he is in line for a minor award at best.

Dean’s Kitten (Kitten’s Joy x Summer Theatre by Ide) Winner of last year’s Lanes End Stakes at Turfway Park found the winners circle for the first time since that score two back at Lone Star in the Dallas Turf Cup. This distance seems to be beyond his best, but he is working well and has top connections in his corner. Puncher’s chance for that reason.

Zack Hall (Muhtathir x Halawa by Dancing Brave) Regally bred colt is a winner of 3 races from 7 starts. He most recently finished fourth in the Grand Prix de Saint-Cloud earning a 116 RPR and before that finished a good second in the Prix d’Hedouville. Trainer Mikel Delzangles is opting to throw lasix on and jockey Christopher Soumilllon is making the trip to ride. Don’t count Zack Hall out.

Gio Ponti (Tale of the Cat x Chipeta Springs by Alydar) Hasn’t won in his last five races and last saw the winners circle in the Shadwell Turf Mile. He is producing good second and third place finishes, but can’t seem to get over the hump. He has shown that he loves Arlington Park with a win and second place finish in this race. If the track comes up firm then trainer Christophe Clement will likely breath a sigh of relief. The old timer has two very sharp works since his last race where he was second in the Man O’ War and it looks like he is ready to run a big race.

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Proceed Bee (Bernstein x Procession by Private Terms) I hate to say a horse doesn’t have a chance, but this gelding would be a real shocker. He just isn’t good enough.

Cape Blanco (Galileo x Laurel Delight by Presidium) We loved this colt last out in the Man O’ War where he won for fun and paid $8 and change. He wasn’t a hard pick that day as the price was very generous and he simply outclassed the field. Much hasn’t changed since then. The colt is simply too good for most of his American counterparts to compete with him. Jimmy Spencer is making the trip to ride again for Aidan O’Brien.

Mission Approved (With Approval x Fortunate Find by Fortunate Prospect) Front running horse waltzed his way to a win in the Manhattan two back before fading to fourth in the Man O’ War last out. The Naipaul Chatterpaul owned and trained horse is working like a freak of nature since then with a :57 3/5 B move over the Saratoga turf training track on July 31. He wont just fold his tent when someone comes up to him and very well could wave goodbye as they turn for home.

Wigmore Hall (High Chaparral x Love And Laughter by Theatrical) Since finishing second to Paddy O’ Prado in last year’s Secretariat Stakes this gelding has won the Group 2 Jebel Hatta in the UAE and finished third in the $5 million Dubai Duty Free. His last two races where he faced top competition don’t inspire confidence, but this could be a class drop for him. I’m not wild about Wigmore Hall and I can’t quite put my finger on why. I won’t be using him on my exotic tickets.

General Perfect (Perfect x General Tree by General Assembly) Remember when I said Proceed Bee likely has no chance? Well this gelding really has no chance.

My top selection to win the 2011 Arlington Million is Mission Approved. He isn’t far behind the top two in this race (Cape  Blanco and Gio Ponti) in terms of talent and it looks like he is moving forward based on a strong work pattern. Let’s hope he can score an easy lead and get to the finish line first at a decent price.

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Dubai World Cup Preview

March 25, 2011 By 2 Comments

Dubai World Cup day from Meydan features $26 million in purse money capped by the $10 million Dubai World Cup. Last year’s World Cup was taken by Gloria de Campeao. The first running was taken by Cigar in 1996. This year seems to have attracted stronger fields, especially in the marquee race. Let’s take a look.

*It should be noted that the “dirt” is actually Tapeta.

$1,000,000 Al Quoz Sprint (5 furlongs, turf)

J J The Jetplane is the 2-1 favorite in this event on the strength of his 1 3/4 length win in the Dubai Duty Free Finest Surprise Handicap. The seven-year-old gelding won the Group 1 Hong Kong Sprint last year and boasts 2 wins from 3 starts at the distance. His racing post ratings are rock solid, but the price is too short to accept. I’m going with 12-1 shot Mr. Gruff as my top pick. The gelded son of Mr. Greeley was dominant going 6.5 on the turf at Santa Anita last year and also registered a strong third place finish in the Grade 1 Shoemaker Mile. He hasn’t raced in nearly a year, but in the past he has done well racing on long rest. He has won twice on similar amounts of time off. I’m confident that Ron Ellis has him ready to run and I love the fact that Joel Rosario is in to ride.

$1,000,000 Godolphin Mile (8 furlongs, turf)

12-1 shot Red Jazz will be making his 2011 debut here. Fitness could be a problem, but he is classy enough to overcome that. He was last seen winning the Group 2 Challenge Stakes by 2 1/4 lengths and before that he was a very close third in the Group 1 Queen Elizabeth II Stakes. A peak effort is needed to win and I’m confident he can bring one. Other interesting options are Premio Loco and Imbongi.

$1,000,000 UAE Derby (1 3/16 miles, dirt)

I’m going with Master of Hounds at 12-1 here. He was last seen failing as the favorite in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. Trainer Aiden O’Brien must think he is ready for a big race. Splash Point, winner of the UAE 2,000 Guineas, also looks strong. Although he is a bit immature I love his style and pedigree. Both of these horses should be big shots so give them a look.

$2,000,000 Dubai Golden Shaheen (6 furlongs, dirt)

I can’t make heads or tails of this race, but defending champ Kinsale King looks tough at 5-2. He won an allowance tune up race to prepare for this at Golden Gate last out. Before that he ran into the best sprinter in the world, Big Drama, and was seventh. Rocket Man also looks strong and will be favored. He was second to Kinsale King in this race last year. Euroears figures to take plenty of action, but I am skeptical of him as he won over a speed favoring track last out and is very inconsistent. Bob Baffert is the king though, so I will never doubt him.

$5,000,000 Dubai Duty Free (9 furlongs, turf)

Wigmore Hall was my pick to beat Paddy O’ Prado last year in the Secretariat. He couldn’t do it, but has progressed nicely since then. I’ll give him another try at great odds of 10-1. He enters this race off a Group 2 win in his only try over this turf course. After Wigmore Hall I would look to last years runner up, Bankable. He is a good price at 10-1 and defeated sprinter Conveyance easily last out going 6 on the dirt. Returning to a turf route should be no problem.

$5,000,000 Dubai Sheema Classic (12 furlongs, turf)

They say Europeans own the grass, but I like our guy, Champ Pegasus. The California based son of Fusiachi Pegasus was a brave second to Dangerous Midge last year in the Breeders Cup Turf. He will get another crack at him here. I love how this horse can run on the pace or come flying late. The price isn’t great at 9-2, but I’d love to see him win and he is my pick.

$10,000,000 Dubai World Cup (10 furlongs, dirt)

The favored Twice Over is going to be very hard to beat at 4-1. He rolled past two very good horses in Musir and Gitano Hernando. I’ll make him my top pick. Cape Blanco might win this if he regains the form that allowed him to beat Workforce last year in May. Use him as well as Japanese runners Transcend and Buena Vista in the exotics. The latter is a filly that dominated in Japan last year with wins in the Japan Cup (DQed from first) and Tenno Sho. Transcend is a front running type that won the Japan Cup Dirt as well as the February Stakes last out.

So there you have it, my thoughts on the Dubai World Cup betting. The card is very strong and it seems lots of horses with big odds will be live. I wish I could say more, but I have a flight leaving in about 8 hours. Time for some rest. May the horse be with you!

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Free Weekend Selections

August 21, 2010 By Leave a Comment

Alabama Stakes

Blind Luck (8-5) This filly just seems to know where the wire is. She has won three races by a nose and is clearly the one to beat here despite being second choice on the morning line. Look for her to come flying late under jockey Joel Rosario who will be piloting her for the second time.

Arlington Million

General Quarters (8-1) Trainer Tom McCarthy made clear early in the year that this race was the goal for his colt. He has done well on the turf. He won the Woodford Reserve earlier this year against some nice horses, and if he runs his best race he can down the favored Gio Ponti.

Del Mar Oaks

Crisp (6-1) What’s not to like about this filly? She is a Grade 1 winner this year and will have the services of red hot jockey Rafael Bejarano. The daughter of El Corredor will be going 9 furlongs for the first time in career. She has proved she can beat the favored Evening Jewel, and she ran a bang up race after clipping heels last out. I give her a huge shot and could see her going off at a price larger than 6-1.

Secretariat Stakes

Wigmore Hall (5-1) Like it or not, the Europeans have better turf horses than we do and this gelding will prove that. He beat 18 older horses two races ago despite a horrendous trip. The Michael Bell trainee has won at the distance twice from four starts. Paddy O’ Prado is an amazing animal, but I think this gelding will give him everything he wants and perhaps more. That’s not to say Paddy can’t or wont win, but I like my chances on this one at a good price.

Beverley D Stakes

Hot Cha Cha (6-1) Her price won’t be as ripe with the defection of Rainbow View, but she still warrants a big look. The Grade 1 winning filly ran strong last out to be third behind Tuscan Evening. She is clearly the best filly in the race and if she runs her race she will win. I love the bullet 1:00 B work entering this race. She needs a moderate to fast pace and as long as the pace setters don’t go slow I think she wins this event.

Lake Placid Stakes

It’s Tea Time (10-1) I’ve loved this filly ever since she ran second in the Grade 1 Ashland Stakes at Keeneland. It’s hard to imagine her being 10-1 despite the fact that won an allowance last out. She has all the talent in the world and if she can get a pace to chase she will be tough to hold off in the lane.

Who do you like? Share your thoughts by leaving a comment below!

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