May 22, 2012

2011 With Anticipation Stakes

$150,000 is on the line Thursday at Saratoga in the Grade 2 With Anticipation Stakes for two-year-olds going 8 ½ furlongs on the turf at Saratoga.

The race is likely to have Breeders Cup implications and you can expect to see the winner in the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf later this year at Churchill Downs.

Captain Webb (English Channel x Miss Mary Pat by Service Strip) has been tabbed the 3-1 morning line favorite after a flashy maiden win going the same distance as today’s race over the same track. The second place finisher in that race, Daddy Nose Best, returned to win next out against a strong group. He is owned by James Scatuorchio (he also owned the English Channel) and trained by Todd Pletcher. Not surprisingly, John Velazquez is listed to ride.

He was bet to favoritism in the debut for obvious reasons like wonderful turf breeding, top notch connections and a blazing :59 B turf move going five furlongs. He didn’t disappoint that time, but this will be a much tougher group. My natural tendency is to try to beat the favorite, but that may be tough to do in this spot.

State of Play (War Front x Valeta by Procida) probably rates the best chance to upset at 5-1. He races for Team Valor International and is trained by Graham Motion. His debut resulted in a strong win over a good field at the Spa going 5 ½ furlongs on the grass. Ramon Dominguez will be in the irons and it is likely he will put the colt on the lead.

Another interesting option is Optimizer (English Channel x Indy Pick by AP Indy) who races for D Wayne Lukas and owner Bluegrass Hall. His maiden win came against a good field at first asking. I love the way he finished up in the lane and he should have plenty of room to move forward. Robby Albarado will keep the mount.

Like I said before, it’s going to be hard to get away from the chalk here. The other two I mentioned are worth a look though.

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Strike The Tiger headlines Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes

The meet at Saratoga Race Course is quickly coming to a close. We have just a few graded stakes races left and I’m looking forward to each one. The Grade 3 With Anticipation Stakes presents a unique challenge. It is for two-year-olds over 8.5 furlongs on the turf. Nownownow won the race in 2007 prior to taking the inaugural running of the Breeders Cup Juvenile Turf. You can bank on seeing some of these colts in the Breeders Cup.

Strike The Tiger is a very interesting entry. He is undefeated in three career starts, including a victory at the Royal Ascot meet in Great Britain. He made history with that win, becoming the first American trained horse to ever win a race at the meet. He did so at odds of 33-1. He won’t be anywhere near that price in this spot, but could still offer value. The son of Tiger Ridge will be racing at a route distance for the first time.

He has a lot of early zip, but I would like to see if he can settle behind the early leaders to avoid a speed duel.  He did well to win his first start back in the U.S., taking the $50k Chenery Stakes at Colonial Downs in wire to wire fashion over 5.5 furlongs on the grass. The works are solid entering the race. Wesley Ward has been doing a great job with him and the same can be said for jockey John Velazquez. I’m thinking about keying him first in exacta, trifecta, and superfecta wagers. I might single him on my Pick 3 and Pick 4.

Two Notch Road is likely to get some support after shocking the racing world by winning the Continental Mile at odds of 107-1. Now that’s what I call lighting up the tote board! That win was the first time the son of Partner’s Hero had raced over the turf. I have my doubts about his ability to duplicate that form. I may use him to round out some exotic tickets, but he will be left off all exacta tickets.

Todd Pletcher has a pair of interesting entries in Zapster and Interactif. I like Zapster the most even though he is a maiden. The son of Ghostzapper ran a good race as the favorite to finish second in a maiden special weight last out over this same distance and surface. I like his early speed and expect a good run from him here. Interactif ran strong to break his maiden first out, but ran poorly in the Grade 2 Sanford Stakes last out. He should improve while switching surfaces and extending to a route distance.

The New York bred Jung Man Scott should have plenty of support after breaking his maiden in 1:02 2/5 for 5.5 furlong on the turf, earning a BRIS figure of 92. The Richard Dutrow trainee is progressing very well. The son of Freud will have ace jockey Ramon Dominguez in the irons. He is the likely pacesetter.

I’ll make Strike the Tiger my top selection. This race promises to be an interesting one. Who do you like?!