The Woodward Stakes provided an awe inspiring race two years ago when Rachel Alexandra became the only filly to ever hit the wire first.
Now, Havre de Grace (Saint Liam x Easter Bunnette by Carson City) will try to become the second female in the 57 year history of the Woodward Stakes to enter the winner’s circle.
She won’t have it easy.
Yes, the filly is super quick. Yes, she blew away the field in the Apple Blossom, Azeri and Obeah. Yes, she provided a breath taking stretch duel at Delaware Park against archrival Blind Luck in the Delaware Handicap. Her figures match up too.
Despite that, taking on males will require all of her strength and speed.
Havre de Grace will face a field that includes horses that won the Florida Derby, Suburban Handicap, Donn Handicap and New Orleans Handicap among other important races. The field also includes runners that were second in the Kentucky Derby and Stephen Foster Handicap. Winning the Woodward will be much harder for the lass than her 8-5 morning line price indicates.
This is a race where I think you have to swing against the favorite. I’m going to make my top pick Giant Oak (Giant’s Causeway x Crafty Oak by Crafty Prospector). I’ve never been very wild about the horse, but he has come on strong of late. I love the way he ran into glacial fractions to grab third in the Whitney Handicap last out. If he gets some pace to chase he will be deadly. The price is wonderful at 8-1. Shaun Bridgmahon will pilot the veteran racehorse for trainer Chris Block.
After Giant Oak I also like Flat Out (Flatter x Cresta Lil by Cresta Rider). In fact, I’d say he has an equal chance if not a little better chance to win the race than my pick. Why didn’t I go with him? Well, 8-1 on Giant Oak is a lot more enticing than the 5-2 I can expect on Flat Out. Given I don’t think a whole lot separates them, it’s a no-brainer for me to take the horse with the much better price. Flat Out was last seen finishing up nicely in the Whitney to be second behind Tizway. Before that he blew the Suburban Handicap field off the track to win by 6 ½ lengths at odds of 14-1 as our top pick. He is sharp as a tack as you can tell by a :57 1/5 H work at Monmouth on August 18.
My price horse for the Woodward Stakes is Convocation (Pulpit x Shade Dancer by Nureyev). He ran well last out to take a third level allowance race at Saratoga by just over 3 lengths. Trainer James Jerkens has him here for a reason. The colt loves the track as proved by a record of 2 wins from 3 starts. He was fourth in this race last year, but figures to improve this time at a fat price of 20-1.
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