Why Big Brown Will Beat Curlin
September 2, 2008 by Ryan
Big Bad Brown
It looks as if the highly anticipated Curlin vs. Big Brown match up will take place in the Breeders Cup Classic. While the Classic has been the goal for IEAH and Big Brown all along, Curlin and company have only recently given a title defense some serious thought. Many of the friends at the track, and fellow bloggers believe Curlin would deliver quite a thrashing to Big Brown. I’m not so sure. Allow me to explain.
Both horses were dull last time out. Big Brown ran down Coal Play in the late stages of the Haskell, but should’ve won but quite a bit more than he did. Curlin was also a step slow winning the Woodward. The horse he beat was better than his odds would have led you to believe at 40-1, but Curlin still should’ve demolished him.
I can find an excuse for Big Brown, but not for Curlin, the reigning horse of the year. Big Brown was recovering from a grueling Triple Crown campaign and had every reason to give it up, but he dug deep and swept past Coal Play. You can expect him to come back even stronger next time.
Like the champion that he is, Curlin won the Woodward after some urging from Albarado. Unlike Big Brown, he didn’t have a reason not to blast past the colt. Perhaps he just had a bad race, but I think this could be the beginning of the end for Curlin. He doesn’t have the bulletproof aura that he had earlier this year, and he is vulnerable.
I found his loss to Breeders Cup Turf winner Red Rocks discouraging. Although Red Rocks is a good horse, he is nothing compared to the top turf runners in Europe. Why does this matter? Curlin was being considered for the Arc. If he couldn’t beat Red Rocks, he would’ve been destroyed in Europe.
Big Brown has every reason to improve and surpass Curlin. Lets not forget this is a colt who won the Kentucky Derby easy after going wide the entire trip. He won the Preakness with ease, before being taken out of his element in the Belmont and suffering his first defeat. If he was this good so early in the year, and as lightly raced as he is, how good will he be come time for the Classic?
One the greatest advantages Big Brown holds over Curlin is his tactical speed. Desormeaux can place Big Brown wherever he likes, while Curlin is traditionally a closer. Traffic can arise at any moment, and Curlin is more susceptible. Another, even greater advantage Big Brown holds over Curlin is his heart. While Curlin is no quitter, and has a great heart of his own, Big Brown is more determined. Curlin relented to a filly in the Belmont. Big Brown could’ve just quit in the Haskell, but he bore down and won the race. You can only attribute that to his will to win.
In closing, please don’t mistake my respect for Curlin. I bet him heavily in last years Classic as the fourth choice, and I have always thought him to be one of the greatest horses of all time. He is even featured as the third horse in my banner, because he is one of my favorite horses. His legacy speaks for itself. This race will be one for the ages if it takes place. It is my hope that both of these magnificent colts will be neck and neck down the stretch. While I believe Big Brown will come out on top, I hope the best colt wins- Curlin or Big Brown.
I just gotta say it.
R to R carried less weight and did not run in any of the other crown races and damn near killed herself to beat Curlin by a nose, if I remember she retired shortly after the Belmont due to stresses on her bones or something. OH yeah I geuss Curlin wasn’t tired going into that race. God knows he did not show any heart in a race that was spectacular and fun to watch, there were no losers in that Belmont. Perhaps he should have just stopped because he knew he wasn’t going to win-Curlin has more heart than a Valentine.
Interesting take.
Can’t agree with you on the heart thing, necessarily — Curlin, after all, did take down Street Sense in the Preakness and Lawyer Ron, when that one was looking like horse of the year, in the JC Gold Cup.
On the other hand, my sense is that Curlin’s been a little off form since returning from Dubai. He’s good enough that he finds a way to win, regardless, but his win in the Foster — against an absolutely awful field (for a G1) — was harder than it should have been, and the Woodward was a struggle, too, against another bad field. I think he’s vulnerable right now against a top-quality opponent — which Big Brown, in his best form, is. Of course, Brown’s win in the Haskell didn’t set the world afire, either.
My guess is that, if either one returns to form before the Classic, that one’s the winner.
Thanks for reading guys. Maybe I was a bit harsh on the heart. Like I said, I believe they both have big hearts, I just think Big Browns might be a bit bigger.
The only way BB will beat Curlin is if he’s on the juice. Poor little Curlin–the horse that couldn’t–going into the Derby with only 3 races under his belt and no blood line to speak of. Everyone underestimated him. He’s been halfway around the world and back and has a much better card of races under his belt than BB. Anyone who dismisses any horse — or goat for that matter–trained by Asmussen is an idiot. It not only takes heart going down the lane to get to the line but it does take some smarts. Curlin’s got that. Horses are generally known not to be the brightest creatures on earth but Curlin’s got way more smarts than most. So what if he didn’t win by 5 last week–he didn’t need to. It takes a smart jockey and trainer to not push the horse when it’s not needed. Keep BB off the juice, send him around the world once and throw him on a grass race. Then let’s talk. Go Curlin.
Both horses had last-out subpar performances, but still eked out wins, still got the win despite not being at their best - for Big Brown this is a demonstration of heart, but not for Curlin?
I wouldn’t argue with your logic, but it must be applied to both horses equally. And I don’t buy BB getting a pass because of his TC campaign, which was two super easy wins followed by a non-race. The only thing that could be construed as grueling would be the timing between the Derby and the Preakness…however, allowance and claiming horses run back in shorter time, and win, without needing a layoff afterward. If they can do it, shouldn’t a horse a good BB be able to too?
Hello Erin and Vickie, thanks for reading.
Vickie- I strongly disagree with you that Curlin has no blood to speak of. He is from the #1 sire in the world, and a deputy minister mare :). Nobody underestimated him, he was the morning line favorite in last years Kentucky Derby. I am not dismissing Curlin by any means. I love the colt, I just think he will meet his match in Big Brown. Albarado wasn’t holding back on Curlin, he had to get the whip out in order to win.
Erin- It was a display of heart for Big Brown because he was behind well into the stretch run, something that had never happened to him before. Curlin went by with little resistance from the opposing colt. On the note of the grueling campaign, regardless of how easy he won, those are still tough races. Lets not forget he won the Kentucky Derby from the twenty hole. I’m not saying Curlin doesn’t have any heart because he surely does, I just think Big Brown has more.
Vickie, Asmussen is one of the most “juicy” trainers out there. He just doesn’t admit it so openly as Dutrow did.
An issue that plagues both BB and Curlin, and most American horses attempting any racing beyond a mile, has little to do with their innate ability, but I think reflects current, very questionable, training techniques. Anybody who saw BB’s preparation for the Belmont realized he had virtually no chance of getting the 1 1/2 miles. Yes, there were other circumstances of which we are all aware, but the fact remains he was a dead short horse (a fact attested to by no less an authority than Seattle Slew’s trainer, Billy Turner, who suggested that BB would have had to be the reincarnation of Pegasus himself to win off of his “training” program; D. Wayne Lukas expressed similar sentiments in a post race interview I witnessed on the backstretch when, referring to his own Belmont preparations, said that he didn’t always know if he was sending the “best” horse over to the Belmont, but he knew he was sending a “fit” horse who would get the trip). Similarly, in my opinion, the training regimen of Curlin is in no way structured to develop stamina. Slow gallops of 1- 1 1/2 miles, punctuated by a slow breeze (ie 1/2 in 49.1, 5/8ths in 1:02.1) every 5-7 days does not simulate racing conditions. Even though he did work a decent 7/8ths, it was the only serious move I could find recorded in the 7 weeks he was off and, in restrospect, I suspect he was also short for the man o’ War. He was off 49 days from the Man o’ War, put in an approximate first 1/2 in 47.1 (2 seconds faster than his quickest work) in the Woodward while getting squeezed into the first turn, then had to go into a long drive to run down uncontested speed (during which he put in a quarter in 23.2). By the time he hit the 1/8th pole he was a dead horse, and staggered home his last 1/8th in 14 seconds! These horses, and most all American horses trained for distance, are simply not getting the training they need to allow them to race to their potential. If you are going to race only every 7-8 weeks, then training must simulate race conditions in order to maintain fitness; If they are racing every 3-4 weeks then they will need much less work between races. I suspect we sill see a significantly improved effort from Curlin in the JC Gold Cup, as the 4 week interval should allow him to maintain some fitness benefit obtained from the Woodward (although 3 weeks would be better). With 6 weeks off since the Haskel we again might not see BB’s best effort although he is putting in some longer, albeit, slow works, in preparation for this. “Oh where have you gone Charlie Whittingham!”
Big Brown has “tactical speed?” Last two races I have seen of Big Brown Kent D. was choking him trying to keep him off the lead. “Tactical” would not be the optimum word for his speed.
Thanks for reading Murray and Brett!
Brett- After watching the Haskell again, Kent D. was NOT choking him. Tactical is a great word for his type of speed, because he has a proven ability to rate and go wire to wire.
Murray- I can see your point, but I know very little about the actual training so I wont comment.
You make some very valid points and I think the most striking one is in regards to training. You will most likely be proven correct when all is said and done.
The early Curlin seemed to be more anxious to get into the race, laying just off the leaders before taking them on with little or no encouragement. In his last two races, tho one was on a new surface, he showed little pace and had to be hard ridden to finish. Physically, he is as an imposing figure as any horse since Secretariat. I hope the old Curlin shows up at Santa Anita.
“I can find an excuse for Big Brown, but not for Curlin, the reigning horse of the year. Big Brown was recovering from a grueling Triple Crown campaign and had every reason to give it up”
I don’t have a dog in this hunt, but I don’t see hwo we can say that Big Brown had a “grueling” Triple Crown campaign.
He basically had two easy wins against a weak field, and certainly after teh Belmont, he had nothing to “rest up” from.
TvNB
The very nature of the Triple Crown is grueling, TVnewsbadge. They begin by going 1 1/4 which is a distance most have never raced at, followed by another race two weeks later, then they have to go 1 1/2 three weeks after.
[...] the most. It looks as if the Big Brown vs. Curlin heavyweight bout is going to take place. Click here to read why I think Big Brown will win. The Ladies Classic is also shaping up to be quite an [...]
“Ryan on October 6th, 2008 12:35 pm
The very nature of the Triple Crown is grueling, TVnewsbadge. They begin by going 1 1/4 which is a distance most have never raced at, followed by another race two weeks later, then they have to go 1 1/2 three weeks after.”
Sure, but we need to keep in mind that Big Brown got a lot of rest and trained very little between the Preakness and the Belmont (some crtics say too much time off is why he lost) , and while the Belmont is 1 1/2, BB didn’t run that far at speed.
I’m not saying that there isn’t anything to the theory, but if fatique really was a factor in his recent dull performance, it might mean he’s not really that good a horse.
TvNB
He won two legs of the Triple Crown he is a good horse regardless of what happens after that. He was much the best against older horses in his most recent race.